# Packaging Corp of America (PKG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PKG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:12.958Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $232.58 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $135.76 per share, central $165.89 per share, high $192.70 per share. Buy at or below the central value $165.89 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:12.958Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.09×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.14×

- FY2017: 0.14×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.14×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 14.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 22.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 14.8%

- FY2017: 20.1%

- FY2018: 20.8%

- FY2019: 19.4%

- FY2020: 15.2%

- FY2021: 20.7%

- FY2022: 20.9%

- FY2023: 15.9%

- FY2024: 15.2%

- FY2025: 13.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 23.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.1% vs 15.2%

- Per-share earnings: 4.80 to 8.58 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: $11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.5%

- Per-share value change: $3.78

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.80

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.58

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.16

- Average buyback yield: 0.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.80

- FY2017: $7.14

- FY2018: $7.86

- FY2019: $7.40

- FY2020: $4.88

- FY2021: $8.90

- FY2022: $11.11

- FY2023: $8.55

- FY2024: $9.00

- FY2025: $8.58

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.03×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.43×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.1%

- FY2017: -3.0%

- FY2018: -6.7%

- FY2019: -7.1%

- FY2020: -7.7%

- FY2021: -3.2%

- FY2022: -5.8%

- FY2023: -6.3%

- FY2024: -4.4%

- FY2025: -7.2%

## Holders

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.1% a year for ten years · sales +7.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:24.423Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-22: Packaging Corp forecasts second-quarter profit below estimates amid tariff-driven demand slowdown ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/packaging-corp-forecasts-second-quarter-211652556.html))

- 2025-07-01: Packaging Corp of America stock surges after $1.8 billion Greif deal ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/packaging-corp-of-america-stock-surges-after-18-billion-greif-deal-93CH-4119733))

- 2025-10-23: Packaging Corp.'s Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates, Rise Y/Y on Higher Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/packaging-corp-q3-earnings-lag-150700295.html))

- 2026-02-12: Packaging Corporation Of America Faces Margin Strain And Demand Uncertainty ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/packaging-corporation-america-faces-margin-043155650.html))

- 2026-05-20: Packaging Corporation of America Seen Benefiting From Pricing Power Amid Tight Supply, UBS Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/packaging-corporation-america-seen-benefiting-155632670.html))

- 2026-07-25: Packaging Corporation Of America (PKG) On Strong Earnings And Higher Prices Looks Fully Valued ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/packaging-corporation-america-pkg-strong-071402037.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +7.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526074129/pkg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: $5.8B 

- FY2017: $6.4B 

- FY2018: $7.0B 

- FY2019: $7.0B 

- FY2020: $6.7B 

- FY2021: $7.7B 

- FY2022: $8.5B 

- FY2023: $7.8B 

- FY2024: $8.4B 

- FY2025: $9.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 21%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526074129/pkg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 22.1% 

- FY2017: 22.8% 

- FY2018: 23.5% 

- FY2019: 23.6% 

- FY2020: 20.8% 

- FY2021: 24.2% 

- FY2022: 24.7% 

- FY2023: 21.8% 

- FY2024: 21.3% 

- FY2025: 21.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaging & containers; annual sales are USD 9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526074129/pkg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 8989300000; grossProfit 1889600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PKG.US: Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various linerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers; and white papers. This segment sells papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21% to 21.8% during 2023–25; it earns 17.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 21.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 21.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526074129/pkg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.14769468599033816],[2017,0.20127190329208766],[2018,0.20838078816184386],[2019,0.19425510559949097],[2020,0.15176572700068358],[2021,0.20664753939890623],[2022,0.20885690331791282],[2023,0.1588587714618158],[2024,0.1523958102567084],[2025,0.13527135147603483]]; median 0.17655693853065338. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

"Packaging prices and mix reflected our 2025 price increases for containerboard and corrugated products." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526074129/pkg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); Packaging prices and mix reflected our 2025 price increases for containerboard and corrugated products.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 23.6% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 274300000; cash acquisitions 485400000; owner earnings 533300000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.910181886367898.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 343000000; cash acquisitions 273800000; owner earnings 717000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3818688981868898.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 140500000; upkeep 410900000; cash acquisitions 56300000; owner earnings 738000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.26666666666666666.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 399500000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 684400000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 421200000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 449700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 187600000; upkeep 417500000; cash acquisitions 194900000; owner earnings 841100000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4547616216858875.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 362887286.3094201; upkeep 461312713.6905799; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1025287286.3094201. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3539371756141184.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 469700000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 813200000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 144100000; upkeep 525600000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 805100000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1789839771456962.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526074129/pkg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 176100000; upkeep 652800000; cash acquisitions 1804300000; owner earnings 768900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.5756275198335286.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Incremental return on capital 0.23596883517278255, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,216100000],[2017,237600000],[2018,268100000],[2019,298700000],[2020,299600000],[2021,379800000],[2022,420300000],[2023,448900000],[2024,448800000],[2025,449600000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526074129/pkg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 153000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PKG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.5789999999999997 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Customer Concentration – We rely on certain large customers." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526074129/pkg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); Customer Concentration – We rely on certain large customers.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08935770807124299. Price 232.58; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 5.0320579110651495 → FY2025 8.581473214285714. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $82.50 per share

- 2016-11: $84.76 per share

- 2016-12: $84.82 per share

- 2017-01: $92.18 per share

- 2017-02: $92.43 per share

- 2017-03: $91.62 per share

- 2017-04: $98.78 per share

- 2017-05: $102.16 per share

- 2017-06: $111.39 per share

- 2017-07: $109.48 per share

- 2017-08: $112.41 per share

- 2017-09: $114.68 per share

- 2017-10: $116.27 per share

- 2017-11: $118.60 per share

- 2017-12: $120.55 per share

- 2018-01: $125.63 per share

- 2018-02: $119.20 per share

- 2018-03: $112.70 per share

- 2018-04: $115.69 per share

- 2018-05: $117.50 per share

- 2018-06: $111.79 per share

- 2018-07: $112.90 per share

- 2018-08: $109.92 per share

- 2018-09: $109.69 per share

- 2018-10: $91.81 per share

- 2018-11: $97.82 per share

- 2018-12: $83.46 per share

- 2019-01: $94.32 per share

- 2019-02: $95.59 per share

- 2019-03: $99.38 per share

- 2019-04: $99.16 per share

- 2019-05: $89.08 per share

- 2019-06: $95.32 per share

- 2019-07: $100.97 per share

- 2019-08: $100.58 per share

- 2019-09: $106.10 per share

- 2019-10: $109.46 per share

- 2019-11: $111.90 per share

- 2019-12: $111.99 per share

- 2020-01: $95.75 per share

- 2020-02: $90.62 per share

- 2020-03: $86.83 per share

- 2020-04: $96.65 per share

- 2020-05: $101.41 per share

- 2020-06: $99.80 per share

- 2020-07: $96.12 per share

- 2020-08: $101.24 per share

- 2020-09: $109.05 per share

- 2020-10: $114.49 per share

- 2020-11: $130.00 per share

- 2020-12: $137.91 per share

- 2021-01: $134.46 per share

- 2021-02: $132.02 per share

- 2021-03: $134.48 per share

- 2021-04: $147.65 per share

- 2021-05: $148.65 per share

- 2021-06: $135.42 per share

- 2021-07: $141.50 per share

- 2021-08: $151.70 per share

- 2021-09: $137.44 per share

- 2021-10: $137.37 per share

- 2021-11: $130.59 per share

- 2021-12: $136.15 per share

- 2022-01: $150.63 per share

- 2022-02: $147.19 per share

- 2022-03: $156.11 per share

- 2022-04: $161.17 per share

- 2022-05: $157.28 per share

- 2022-06: $137.50 per share

- 2022-07: $140.61 per share

- 2022-08: $136.92 per share

- 2022-09: $112.29 per share

- 2022-10: $120.21 per share

- 2022-11: $135.89 per share

- 2022-12: $127.91 per share

- 2023-01: $142.70 per share

- 2023-02: $136.72 per share

- 2023-03: $138.83 per share

- 2023-04: $135.26 per share

- 2023-05: $124.03 per share

- 2023-06: $132.16 per share

- 2023-07: $153.35 per share

- 2023-08: $149.10 per share

- 2023-09: $153.55 per share

- 2023-10: $153.05 per share

- 2023-11: $168.01 per share

- 2023-12: $162.91 per share

- 2024-01: $165.88 per share

- 2024-02: $181.19 per share

- 2024-03: $189.78 per share

- 2024-04: $172.98 per share

- 2024-05: $183.49 per share

- 2024-06: $182.56 per share

- 2024-07: $199.87 per share

- 2024-08: $209.54 per share

- 2024-09: $215.40 per share

- 2024-10: $228.94 per share

- 2024-11: $248.85 per share

- 2024-12: $225.13 per share

- 2025-01: $212.66 per share

- 2025-02: $213.09 per share

- 2025-03: $198.02 per share

- 2025-04: $185.61 per share

- 2025-05: $193.17 per share

- 2025-06: $188.45 per share

- 2025-07: $193.75 per share

- 2025-08: $217.96 per share

- 2025-09: $217.93 per share

- 2025-10: $195.76 per share

- 2025-11: $204.07 per share

- 2025-12: $206.23 per share

- 2026-01: $222.55 per share

- 2026-02: $232.14 per share

- 2026-03: $212.22 per share

- 2026-04: $213.45 per share

- 2026-05: $218.91 per share

- 2026-06: $238.28 per share

- 2026-07: $245.84 per share

- 2026-08: $233.94 per share

- 2026-09: $229.26 per share

- 2026-10: $232.58 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $69.10 per share, central $93.53 per share, high $109.39 per share

- FY2017: low $83.25 per share, central $112.93 per share, high $132.19 per share

- FY2018: low $93.44 per share, central $128.70 per share, high $150.56 per share

- FY2019: low $105.40 per share, central $147.49 per share, high $172.08 per share

- FY2020: low $101.53 per share, central $136.83 per share, high $158.77 per share

- FY2021: low $120.18 per share, central $165.39 per share, high $193.06 per share

- FY2022: low $131.06 per share, central $182.83 per share, high $214.15 per share

- FY2023: low $123.36 per share, central $156.50 per share, high $181.11 per share

- FY2024: low $123.45 per share, central $152.38 per share, high $176.67 per share

- FY2025: low $127.73 per share, central $155.98 per share, high $181.12 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526074129/pkg-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.