# Prologis (PLD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PLD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:13.952Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $126.94 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $7.78 per share, central $9.69 per share, high $11.05 per share. Buy at or below the central value $9.69 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:13.952Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.5% at the stated quote. About 3.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.25×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.26×

- FY2017: 0.75×

- FY2018: 0.60×

- FY2019: 0.56×

- FY2020: 0.48×

- FY2021: 0.67×

- FY2022: 0.58×

- FY2023: 0.46×

- FY2024: 0.54×

- FY2025: 0.40×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 13.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 13.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 73.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 59.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 30.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.6%

- FY2017: 7.6%

- FY2018: 4.9%

- FY2019: 5.2%

- FY2020: 4.0%

- FY2021: 6.0%

- FY2022: 4.3%

- FY2023: 4.2%

- FY2024: 5.0%

- FY2025: 3.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.43×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $7.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $17B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 39.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 8.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -14.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -0.06×

- FY2022: -0.08×

- FY2023: 1.59×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.66×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.9% vs 4.2%

- Per-share earnings: 2.21 to 3.56 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 6.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.9%

- Market cap gain: $91B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 6.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 6.1%

- Per-share value change: $1.35

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.21

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.56

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.11

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $24B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.21

- FY2017: $2.99

- FY2018: $2.79

- FY2019: $2.40

- FY2020: $1.96

- FY2021: $3.84

- FY2022: $4.15

- FY2023: $3.21

- FY2024: $3.91

- FY2025: $3.56

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.90×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.47×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.7%

- FY2017: -0.1%

- FY2018: -0.4%

- FY2019: -1.7%

- FY2020: -2.6%

- FY2021: -0.1%

- FY2022: -0.9%

- FY2023: -2.5%

- FY2024: -1.2%

- FY2025: -1.6%

## Holders

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 25% since Dec 2021 · "Prologis sticks with 2025 outlook, but customers grow more cautious" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2025) · sales +7.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:24.685Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 41.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-16: Prologis sticks with 2025 outlook, but customers grow more cautious ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prologis-sticks-2025-outlook-customers-182932473.html))

- 2025-08-04: Prologis (PLD) Slid Due to a Slower Leasing Environment ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prologis-pld-slid-due-slower-121153667.html))

- 2025-10-18: Prologis (PLD) Is Up 11.6% After Record Leasing Surge and Raised 2025 Earnings Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prologis-pld-11-6-record-020858801.html))

- 2026-01-29: Prologis forecasts ‘moderate global rent growth’ in 2026 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prologis-forecasts-moderate-global-rent-163401659.html))

- 2026-04-17: Prologis ups 2026 outlook as warehouse demand strengthens ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/prologis-ups-2026-outlook-warehouse-152234465.html))

- 2026-07-16: Prologis raises 2026 outlook again as record leasing boosts second-quarter profit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/prologis-raises-2026-outlook-again-125205361.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +7.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526051453/pld-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: $2.5B 

- FY2017: $2.6B 

- FY2018: $2.8B 

- FY2019: $3.3B 

- FY2020: $4.4B 

- FY2021: $4.8B 

- FY2022: $6.0B 

- FY2023: $8.0B 

- FY2024: $8.2B 

- FY2025: $8.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 59.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526051453/pld-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: 72.5% 

- FY2017: 72.3% 

- FY2018: 73.0% 

- FY2019: 72.4% 

- FY2020: 73.6% 

- FY2021: 73.8% 

- FY2022: 74.7% 

- FY2023: 74.9% 

- FY2024: 74.9% 

- FY2025: 59.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are USD 8.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526051453/pld-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 8790127000; grossProfit 5238724000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 59.6% to 74.9% during 2023–25; it earns 4.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 74.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 74.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526051453/pld-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 59.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.025830887864757967],[2017,0.07607156674400861],[2018,0.049292869231854754],[2019,0.05221911147004049],[2020,0.040257930115251014],[2021,0.059504916380927995],[2022,0.04311876595214329],[2023,0.04233423532765013],[2024,0.050361450651328014],[2025,0.0384072533518525]]; median 0.04620581759199902. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 75% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526051453/pld-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.7376819541794833],[2022,0.747376664213689],[2023,0.7494431647956763]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 50.1% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 39% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 101677000; owner earnings 1174779063.6142788. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 110635000; owner earnings 1407437414.8262396. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 915698000; owner earnings 734463992.7634177. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 791860000; owner earnings 1270512244.7642148. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1248294000; owner earnings 1769330628.0781627. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 691856000; owner earnings 4852249000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 22280823.950208664; upkeep 5898036176.049791; owner earnings 414117823.95020866. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05380310303399931.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526051453/pld-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 1134011068.2654715; upkeep 3775130931.7345285; owner earnings 2261560068.2654715. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5014286749125412.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Incremental return on capital 0.3903944031553485, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,893455000],[2017,942884000],[2018,1123367000],[2019,1345660000],[2020,1722989000],[2021,1872861000],[2022,2571267000],[2023,3228589000],[2024,3570480000],[2025,3764745000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526051453/pld-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 23947000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PLD.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.258 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our real estate development and redevelopment strategies may not be successful." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526051453/pld-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Our real estate development and redevelopment strategies may not be successful.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 41.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.6014196809883989. Price 126.94; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.4539420599058557 → FY2025 2.363591590023611. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $52.16 per share

- 2016-11: $50.90 per share

- 2016-12: $52.79 per share

- 2017-01: $48.85 per share

- 2017-02: $51.05 per share

- 2017-03: $51.88 per share

- 2017-04: $54.41 per share

- 2017-05: $55.54 per share

- 2017-06: $58.64 per share

- 2017-07: $60.81 per share

- 2017-08: $63.36 per share

- 2017-09: $63.46 per share

- 2017-10: $64.58 per share

- 2017-11: $66.23 per share

- 2017-12: $64.51 per share

- 2018-01: $65.11 per share

- 2018-02: $60.68 per share

- 2018-03: $62.99 per share

- 2018-04: $64.91 per share

- 2018-05: $64.35 per share

- 2018-06: $65.69 per share

- 2018-07: $65.62 per share

- 2018-08: $67.18 per share

- 2018-09: $67.79 per share

- 2018-10: $64.47 per share

- 2018-11: $67.34 per share

- 2018-12: $58.72 per share

- 2019-01: $69.16 per share

- 2019-02: $70.06 per share

- 2019-03: $71.95 per share

- 2019-04: $76.67 per share

- 2019-05: $73.67 per share

- 2019-06: $80.10 per share

- 2019-07: $80.61 per share

- 2019-08: $83.62 per share

- 2019-09: $85.22 per share

- 2019-10: $87.76 per share

- 2019-11: $91.55 per share

- 2019-12: $89.14 per share

- 2020-01: $92.88 per share

- 2020-02: $84.28 per share

- 2020-03: $80.37 per share

- 2020-04: $89.23 per share

- 2020-05: $91.50 per share

- 2020-06: $93.33 per share

- 2020-07: $105.42 per share

- 2020-08: $101.86 per share

- 2020-09: $100.62 per share

- 2020-10: $99.20 per share

- 2020-11: $100.05 per share

- 2020-12: $99.66 per share

- 2021-01: $103.20 per share

- 2021-02: $99.07 per share

- 2021-03: $106.00 per share

- 2021-04: $116.53 per share

- 2021-05: $117.84 per share

- 2021-06: $119.53 per share

- 2021-07: $128.04 per share

- 2021-08: $134.66 per share

- 2021-09: $125.43 per share

- 2021-10: $144.96 per share

- 2021-11: $150.75 per share

- 2021-12: $168.36 per share

- 2022-01: $156.82 per share

- 2022-02: $145.85 per share

- 2022-03: $161.48 per share

- 2022-04: $160.29 per share

- 2022-05: $127.48 per share

- 2022-06: $117.65 per share

- 2022-07: $132.56 per share

- 2022-08: $124.51 per share

- 2022-09: $101.60 per share

- 2022-10: $110.75 per share

- 2022-11: $117.79 per share

- 2022-12: $112.73 per share

- 2023-01: $129.28 per share

- 2023-02: $123.40 per share

- 2023-03: $124.77 per share

- 2023-04: $125.25 per share

- 2023-05: $124.55 per share

- 2023-06: $122.63 per share

- 2023-07: $124.75 per share

- 2023-08: $124.20 per share

- 2023-09: $112.21 per share

- 2023-10: $100.75 per share

- 2023-11: $114.93 per share

- 2023-12: $133.30 per share

- 2024-01: $126.69 per share

- 2024-02: $133.27 per share

- 2024-03: $130.22 per share

- 2024-04: $102.05 per share

- 2024-05: $110.49 per share

- 2024-06: $112.31 per share

- 2024-07: $126.05 per share

- 2024-08: $127.82 per share

- 2024-09: $126.28 per share

- 2024-10: $112.94 per share

- 2024-11: $116.78 per share

- 2024-12: $105.70 per share

- 2025-01: $119.25 per share

- 2025-02: $123.92 per share

- 2025-03: $111.79 per share

- 2025-04: $102.20 per share

- 2025-05: $108.60 per share

- 2025-06: $105.12 per share

- 2025-07: $106.78 per share

- 2025-08: $113.78 per share

- 2025-09: $114.52 per share

- 2025-10: $124.09 per share

- 2025-11: $128.53 per share

- 2025-12: $127.66 per share

- 2026-01: $130.56 per share

- 2026-02: $142.57 per share

- 2026-03: $132.18 per share

- 2026-04: $142.02 per share

- 2026-05: $143.47 per share

- 2026-06: $135.47 per share

- 2026-07: $144.61 per share

- 2026-08: $139.92 per share

- 2026-09: $129.84 per share

- 2026-10: $133.55 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $17.63 per share, central $19.89 per share, high $22.89 per share

- FY2017: low $18.98 per share, central $21.50 per share, high $24.86 per share

- FY2018: low $18.79 per share, central $21.32 per share, high $24.69 per share

- FY2019: low $22.65 per share, central $25.57 per share, high $29.46 per share

- FY2020: low $26.25 per share, central $29.79 per share, high $34.49 per share

- FY2021: low $26.51 per share, central $30.09 per share, high $34.85 per share

- FY2022: low $24.22 per share, central $31.57 per share, high $36.89 per share

- FY2023: low $44.11 per share, central $62.84 per share, high $73.75 per share

- FY2024: low $5.96 per share, central $6.61 per share, high $7.48 per share

- FY2025: low $6.82 per share, central $8.63 per share, high $9.93 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526051453/pld-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.