# Pilbara Minerals (PLS.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PLS.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 2.97 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 2.29 per share, central AUD 2.51 per share, high AUD 2.80 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 2.51 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.5% at the stated quote. About 8.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 6

- Operating margin variation: 10.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -1.66×

- FY2019: -0.43×

- FY2020: -0.67×

- FY2021: -0.03×

- FY2022: 0.65×

- FY2023: 0.79×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: -0.03×

- FY2026: 0.43×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -0.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -9.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 26.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -7.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -94.2 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -10.0%

- FY2018: -3.8%

- FY2019: -3.2%

- FY2020: -9.4%

- FY2021: -0.7%

- FY2022: 59.9%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 11.9%

- FY2025: -0.5%

- FY2026: 18.3%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.64×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 2.3B

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 3.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 26.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -6.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.91×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: -1.65×

- FY2025: 3.43×

- FY2026: 0.89×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -3.8% vs 11.9%

- Per-share earnings: -0.02 to 0.09 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 10.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Market cap gain: AUD 16B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 2.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 10.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.10

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD -0.02

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.09

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.70

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 3.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -3.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD -0.02

- FY2018: AUD -0.01

- FY2019: AUD -0.01

- FY2020: AUD -0.04

- FY2021: AUD -0.02

- FY2022: AUD 0.19

- FY2023: AUD 0.79

- FY2024: AUD 0.09

- FY2025: AUD -0.06

- FY2026: AUD 0.16

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -12.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 2.77×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.51×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.9%

- FY2018: -2.0%

- FY2019: -3.2%

- FY2020: -13.3%

- FY2021: -7.4%

- FY2022: -3.7%

- FY2023: -20.5%

- FY2024: 16.2%

- FY2025: -7.3%

- FY2026: -12.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 54% since May 2026 · sales +117.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.161Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +117.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 0 

- FY2018: AUD 10M 

- FY2019: AUD 43M 

- FY2020: AUD 84M 

- FY2021: AUD 176M 

- FY2022: AUD 1.2B 

- FY2023: AUD 4.1B 

- FY2024: AUD 1.3B 

- FY2025: AUD 890M 

- FY2026: AUD 1.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 47%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2018: 39.0% 

- FY2019: 14.5% 

- FY2021: 7.2% 

- FY2022: 66.8% 

- FY2023: 80.3% 

- FY2024: 38.1% 

- FY2025: 37.2% 

- FY2026: 47.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other industrial metals & mining; annual sales are AUD 1.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z); FY2026: revenue 1938565000; grossProfit 912068000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 37.2% to 47% during 2024–26; it lost 0.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 38.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 47%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.0999815042637096],[2018,-0.03768252320072685],[2019,-0.03239874975944151],[2020,-0.09363798111380754],[2021,-0.006989951644432251],[2022,0.5992410698253824],[2023,4.350900739045246],[2024,0.11850535281462164],[2025,-0.005468647106168142],[2026,0.18316388260767708]]; median -0.006229299375300196. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 10.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 26.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z); FY2022: growth capex 82851000; upkeep 45476000; owner earnings 513829400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16124223331712823.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z); FY2023: growth capex 278570000; upkeep 106970000; owner earnings 2363317200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11787245486979064.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z); FY2026: growth capex 51370000; upkeep 278060000; owner earnings 469479399. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10941907165558078.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z); Incremental return on capital 0.26944815393767474, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,190749000],[2018,0],[2019,17110000],[2020,22017000],[2021,143525000],[2022,329781000],[2023,329781000],[2024,421021000],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PLS.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 8.046000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:49.414Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0406230376407436. Price 2.97; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -0.05078120550305517 → FY2026 0.14411471648030083. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 0.48 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 0.51 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 0.47 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 0.50 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 0.42 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 0.40 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 0.32 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 0.38 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 0.35 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 0.36 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 0.33 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 0.59 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 0.75 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 0.98 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 1.04 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 0.88 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 0.86 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 0.77 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 0.86 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 0.86 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 0.81 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 0.82 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 0.75 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 0.84 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 0.73 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 0.78 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 0.58 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 0.61 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 0.69 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 0.74 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 0.57 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 0.67 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 0.51 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 0.44 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 0.33 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 0.30 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 0.30 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 0.28 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 0.26 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 0.27 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 0.23 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 0.16 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 0.20 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 0.24 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 0.23 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 0.33 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 0.32 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 0.30 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 0.39 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 0.66 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 0.87 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 0.93 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 1.04 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 1.05 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 1.14 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 1.24 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 1.45 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 1.77 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 2.23 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 2.05 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 2.20 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 2.60 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 3.20 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 3.20 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 2.71 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 3.20 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 2.85 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 2.95 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 2.29 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 2.77 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 3.65 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 4.56 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 5.09 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 4.66 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 3.75 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 4.75 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 4.17 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 3.94 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 4.24 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 4.41 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 4.89 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 4.84 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 4.67 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 4.30 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 3.67 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 3.64 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 3.95 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 3.55 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 4.20 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 3.83 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 4.06 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 3.79 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 3.07 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 2.93 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 2.97 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 3.27 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 2.85 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 2.39 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 2.19 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 2.30 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 1.90 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 1.69 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 1.51 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 1.24 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 1.34 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 1.61 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 2.45 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 2.52 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 3.30 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 4.05 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 4.22 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 4.29 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 5.19 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 5.12 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 6.02 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 6.46 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 5.02 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 4.15 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 5.40 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 3.86 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 3.08 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2026: low AUD 2.27 per share, central AUD 2.48 per share, high AUD 2.77 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:21.677Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.