# Palantir Technologies (PLTR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PLTR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:14.649Z. Financial observations: FY2018–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $200.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $6.73 per share, central $7.13 per share, high $7.66 per share. Buy at or below the central value $7.13 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:14.649Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.1% at the stated quote. About 3.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 2.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -1.05×

- FY2019: -0.78×

- FY2020: -1.07×

- FY2021: -0.27×

- FY2022: -0.08×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.32×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.43×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 0.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -89.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 78.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 80.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 3

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: >100%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.0%

- FY2019: 0.0%

- FY2020: -46.8%

- FY2021: -1330.5%

- FY2022: -89.0%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 183.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 3.4 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.09×

- FY2024: 1.04×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 0.0% vs 361.8%

- Per-share earnings: -1.07 to 0.19 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 21.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 21.2%

- Per-share value change: $1.25

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1.07

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.19

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -$1.07

- FY2019: -$1.00

- FY2020: -$1.19

- FY2021: -$0.27

- FY2022: -$0.18

- FY2023: $0.09

- FY2024: $0.19

- FY2025: $0.63

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -5.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.16×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 32.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.31×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -37.8%

- FY2019: -26.0%

- FY2020: -32.3%

- FY2021: -26.3%

- FY2022: -17.3%

- FY2023: -11.1%

- FY2024: -10.9%

- FY2025: -5.7%

## Holders

- [Duan Yongping](https://gigainvestors.com/HH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 58.1% a year for ten years · "Palantir's Commercial Boom: The AI Growth Engine Driving Its Future" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2025) · sales +37.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:24.952Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 58.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-14: Palantir Stock Rises on NATO Buy of AI-Powered Maven Smart System ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/1243d2b6-bf60-34e9-ab3a-a3fc51e8b798/palantir-stock-rises-on-nato.html))

- 2025-07-25: Palantir Stock Climb to Record High on Robust Sales and Major Army Contract ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-stock-climb-record-high-174632437.html))

- 2025-09-22: Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Is Up 6.5% After Securing £750M UK Defence AI Contract ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-technologies-pltr-6-5-102753427.html))

- 2026-05-04: Palantir Q1 2026 earnings: revenue surges 85%, guidance raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/palantir-q1-2026-earnings-revenue-205048964.html))

- 2026-06-16: Palantir (PLTR) Faces Swiss Legal Loss And French Contract Exit In Europe ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/palantir-pltr-faces-swiss-legal-221347645.html))

- 2026-08-04: Palantir Stock Soars After Revenue Surges 93% and Full-Year Outlook Jumps ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/palantir-stock-soars-revenue-surges-122104658.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +37.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2018: $595M 

- FY2019: $743M 

- FY2020: $1.1B 

- FY2021: $1.5B 

- FY2022: $1.9B 

- FY2023: $2.2B 

- FY2024: $2.9B 

- FY2025: $4.5B 

- FY2026: $6.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 82.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2018: 72.2% 

- FY2019: 67.4% 

- FY2020: 67.7% 

- FY2021: 78.0% 

- FY2022: 78.6% 

- FY2023: 80.6% 

- FY2024: 80.2% 

- FY2025: 82.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in software infrastructure; annual sales are USD 4.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: revenue 4475446000; grossProfit 3686269000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PLTR.US: Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It provides Palantir Gotham integrates with other platforms for defense offerings which enables users to see, understand, and act in the modern battlespace; operations centers to the tactical edge; integrating data from domains and sensors in near real-time; and situational awareness and accelerating operational decision-making, as well as facilitates the hand-off between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. It also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that helps organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. In addition, it provides Palantir Apollo, a software that delivers software and updates across the business, as well as enables customers to deploy their software virtually in any environment; and Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform that provides unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial large language models (LLMs) that can transform structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects and can turn organizations' actions and processes into tools for humans and LLM-driven agents. The company also has a strategic partnership with Ondas Inc. to develop and deploy AI-enabled operational capabilities to scale stratospheric, aerial, and land-based ISR missions. The company has a strategic collaboration with NVIDIA to deliver an intelligent engine for running NVIDIA AI and Nemotron open models in sovereign environments and with PwC to transform critical business operations and deliver measurable enterprise value. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Aventura, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 80.2% to 82.4% during 2023–25; it earns 0% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 80.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 80.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 82.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); 8-year return on capital observations [[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,-0.46842659363465605],[2021,-13.304639652558691],[2022,-0.8898229420683776],[2023,3.6176119635953348],[2024,23.739962804525216],[2025,3.172759280542087]]; median 0. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.5% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 3 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 15114000; owner earnings 228065000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 12634000; owner earnings 481143000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 7737000; upkeep 26145000; owner earnings 1625033000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.004761134081584805.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2018,12671000],[2019,36805000],[2020,498198000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: cash repurchases 74985000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PLTR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.457 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"A significant portion of our business depends on sales to the public sector" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); A significant portion of our business depends on sales to the public sector

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 58.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.8615368895358773. Price 200.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2020-09: $9.50 per share

- 2020-10: $10.13 per share

- 2020-11: $27.11 per share

- 2020-12: $23.55 per share

- 2021-01: $35.18 per share

- 2021-02: $23.90 per share

- 2021-03: $23.29 per share

- 2021-04: $23.04 per share

- 2021-05: $22.95 per share

- 2021-06: $26.36 per share

- 2021-07: $21.71 per share

- 2021-08: $26.34 per share

- 2021-09: $24.04 per share

- 2021-10: $25.88 per share

- 2021-11: $20.65 per share

- 2021-12: $18.21 per share

- 2022-01: $13.71 per share

- 2022-02: $11.85 per share

- 2022-03: $13.73 per share

- 2022-04: $10.40 per share

- 2022-05: $8.68 per share

- 2022-06: $9.07 per share

- 2022-07: $10.35 per share

- 2022-08: $7.72 per share

- 2022-09: $8.13 per share

- 2022-10: $8.79 per share

- 2022-11: $7.50 per share

- 2022-12: $6.42 per share

- 2023-01: $7.78 per share

- 2023-02: $7.84 per share

- 2023-03: $8.45 per share

- 2023-04: $7.75 per share

- 2023-05: $14.71 per share

- 2023-06: $15.33 per share

- 2023-07: $19.84 per share

- 2023-08: $14.98 per share

- 2023-09: $16.00 per share

- 2023-10: $14.80 per share

- 2023-11: $20.05 per share

- 2023-12: $17.17 per share

- 2024-01: $16.09 per share

- 2024-02: $25.08 per share

- 2024-03: $23.01 per share

- 2024-04: $21.97 per share

- 2024-05: $21.68 per share

- 2024-06: $25.33 per share

- 2024-07: $26.89 per share

- 2024-08: $31.48 per share

- 2024-09: $37.20 per share

- 2024-10: $41.56 per share

- 2024-11: $67.08 per share

- 2024-12: $75.63 per share

- 2025-01: $82.49 per share

- 2025-02: $84.92 per share

- 2025-03: $84.40 per share

- 2025-04: $118.44 per share

- 2025-05: $131.78 per share

- 2025-06: $136.32 per share

- 2025-07: $158.35 per share

- 2025-08: $156.71 per share

- 2025-09: $182.42 per share

- 2025-10: $200.47 per share

- 2025-11: $168.45 per share

- 2025-12: $177.75 per share

- 2026-01: $146.59 per share

- 2026-02: $137.19 per share

- 2026-03: $146.28 per share

- 2026-04: $139.11 per share

- 2026-05: $156.54 per share

- 2026-06: $116.67 per share

- 2026-07: $123.06 per share

- 2026-08: $186.38 per share

- 2026-09: $187.05 per share

- 2026-10: $208.67 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2025: low $4.72 per share, central $4.99 per share, high $5.35 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.