# Marcopolo (POMO3.SA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/POMO3.SA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: BRL. Reporting currency: BRL.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: BRL 4.31 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low BRL 7.45 per share, central BRL 9.27 per share, high BRL 9.94 per share. Buy at or below the central value BRL 9.27 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 36.5% at the stated quote. About 36.5% a year at today's price (required return 17.0%). required return 17.0% a year (BR 10-year bond 13.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.54×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.12×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.16×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -9.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 15.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.0%

- FY2017: 2.6%

- FY2018: 9.6%

- FY2019: 8.1%

- FY2020: 5.2%

- FY2021: 5.8%

- FY2022: 6.4%

- FY2023: 19.6%

- FY2024: 24.2%

- FY2025: 21.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: BRL 3.9B

- Net income, five-year total: BRL 4.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 44.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 31.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.97×

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 0.98×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 0.94×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.0% vs 21.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.08 to 0.75 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 7.6%

- Market cap gain: BRL 7.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: BRL 60M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 7.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 32.0%

- Per-share value change: BRL 0.66

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: BRL 0.08

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: BRL 0.75

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: BRL 201M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: BRL 4.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: BRL 0.20

- FY2017: BRL 0.06

- FY2018: BRL 0.17

- FY2019: BRL 0.17

- FY2020: BRL 0.09

- FY2021: BRL 0.32

- FY2022: BRL 0.40

- FY2023: BRL 0.72

- FY2024: BRL 0.94

- FY2025: BRL 0.75

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.04×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.0%

- FY2017: -4.7%

- FY2018: -0.7%

- FY2019: -8.2%

- FY2020: -1.2%

- FY2021: 2.7%

- FY2022: 5.5%

- FY2023: -3.1%

- FY2024: -0.5%

- FY2025: -0.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 37% since Sep 2025 · sales +5.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.834Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 7.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +5.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: BRL 2.6B 

- FY2017: BRL 2.9B 

- FY2018: BRL 4.2B 

- FY2019: BRL 4.4B 

- FY2020: BRL 3.6B 

- FY2021: BRL 3.5B 

- FY2022: BRL 5.4B 

- FY2023: BRL 6.7B 

- FY2024: BRL 8.6B 

- FY2025: BRL 9.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 25.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 12.7% 

- FY2017: 14.0% 

- FY2018: 15.8% 

- FY2019: 14.9% 

- FY2020: 16.6% 

- FY2021: 10.2% 

- FY2022: 15.3% 

- FY2023: 23.0% 

- FY2024: 24.8% 

- FY2025: 25.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm & heavy construction machinery; annual sales are BRL 9.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2025: revenue 9057548000; grossProfit 2314293000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); POMO3.SA: Marcopolo S.A. engages in the manufacture and sale of buses, bus bodies, and components in Brazil, South Africa, Australia, China, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally. The company offers intercity buses, urban buses and microbuses, electric buses, and hybrid buses; and Volare family of microbuses, such as complete bus, with chassis and body, bodywork for school transport, executive charter, urban transport, and special projects. It is also involved in the development and production of new models on rails; production of units with propulsion, passenger cars, and the manufacture of boxes for people movers, TRAMs, and EMUs; provision of credit solutions for the purchase of buses and minibuses; assembly, marketing, import, and export of refrigeration and air conditioning equipment; and seat foam business. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Caxias Do Sul, Brazil.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 23% to 25.6% during 2023–25; it earns 8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 23%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 25.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.07967385263864278],[2017,0.026333270324003004],[2018,0.09563565165993453],[2019,0.08074684249919699],[2020,0.052230364551360424],[2021,0.0584363859261524],[2022,0.0640130541071063],[2023,0.19604370693384865],[2024,0.2416583505004361],[2025,0.21893931544129164]]; median 0.08021034756891988. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 7.7% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 44.5% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 73544000; owner earnings 195535000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2017: growth capex 8860000; upkeep 45432000; owner earnings 72170000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1227656921158376.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2018: growth capex 100938000; upkeep 60805000; owner earnings 186730000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.54055588282547.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2019: growth capex 38019929.48886043; upkeep 144439070.51113957; owner earnings 143390929.48886043. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2651487763165248.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 134340000; owner earnings 51367400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 104004000; owner earnings 356163800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 97439000; owner earnings 456685600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2023: growth capex 7584000; upkeep 146369000; owner earnings 802409400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.009451534341447146.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2024: growth capex 176985000; upkeep 167592000; owner earnings 1183518800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14954135075843325.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); FY2025: growth capex 88458415.51763469; upkeep 221983584.4823653; owner earnings 1143894815.5176346. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07733089993733867.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); Incremental return on capital 0.44537126498719387, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,118432000],[2017,17140000],[2018,33890000],[2019,82909000],[2020,69971000],[2021,16539000],[2022,88785000],[2023,335655000],[2024,663089000],[2025,1408273000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 61.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); POMO3.SA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 61.519999999999996 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 7.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:48.568Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.12354624032332154. Price 4.31; FX 1; discount 0.1695; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.024736269153808232 → FY2025 0.6967574261543632. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (BRL per share)

- 2016-11: BRL 1.66 per share

- 2016-12: BRL 1.63 per share

- 2017-01: BRL 1.67 per share

- 2017-02: BRL 1.73 per share

- 2017-03: BRL 1.70 per share

- 2017-04: BRL 1.59 per share

- 2017-05: BRL 1.70 per share

- 2017-06: BRL 1.64 per share

- 2017-07: BRL 1.93 per share

- 2017-08: BRL 2.23 per share

- 2017-09: BRL 2.64 per share

- 2017-10: BRL 2.49 per share

- 2017-11: BRL 2.18 per share

- 2017-12: BRL 2.44 per share

- 2018-01: BRL 2.49 per share

- 2018-02: BRL 2.51 per share

- 2018-03: BRL 2.39 per share

- 2018-04: BRL 2.46 per share

- 2018-05: BRL 2.11 per share

- 2018-06: BRL 1.89 per share

- 2018-07: BRL 2.12 per share

- 2018-08: BRL 2.02 per share

- 2018-09: BRL 1.93 per share

- 2018-10: BRL 2.28 per share

- 2018-11: BRL 2.35 per share

- 2018-12: BRL 2.47 per share

- 2019-01: BRL 2.46 per share

- 2019-02: BRL 2.55 per share

- 2019-03: BRL 2.70 per share

- 2019-04: BRL 2.26 per share

- 2019-05: BRL 2.35 per share

- 2019-06: BRL 2.48 per share

- 2019-07: BRL 2.65 per share

- 2019-08: BRL 2.59 per share

- 2019-09: BRL 2.34 per share

- 2019-10: BRL 2.58 per share

- 2019-11: BRL 2.52 per share

- 2019-12: BRL 3.36 per share

- 2020-01: BRL 3.27 per share

- 2020-02: BRL 3.29 per share

- 2020-03: BRL 1.76 per share

- 2020-04: BRL 2.12 per share

- 2020-05: BRL 1.92 per share

- 2020-06: BRL 2.10 per share

- 2020-07: BRL 2.09 per share

- 2020-08: BRL 2.05 per share

- 2020-09: BRL 1.93 per share

- 2020-10: BRL 1.81 per share

- 2020-11: BRL 1.97 per share

- 2020-12: BRL 2.06 per share

- 2021-01: BRL 2.05 per share

- 2021-02: BRL 1.83 per share

- 2021-03: BRL 1.92 per share

- 2021-04: BRL 1.89 per share

- 2021-05: BRL 1.94 per share

- 2021-06: BRL 2.37 per share

- 2021-07: BRL 2.12 per share

- 2021-08: BRL 1.88 per share

- 2021-09: BRL 1.92 per share

- 2021-10: BRL 1.77 per share

- 2021-11: BRL 1.77 per share

- 2021-12: BRL 1.89 per share

- 2022-01: BRL 2.18 per share

- 2022-02: BRL 1.81 per share

- 2022-03: BRL 1.77 per share

- 2022-04: BRL 1.75 per share

- 2022-05: BRL 1.86 per share

- 2022-06: BRL 1.61 per share

- 2022-07: BRL 1.62 per share

- 2022-08: BRL 1.70 per share

- 2022-09: BRL 1.83 per share

- 2022-10: BRL 1.83 per share

- 2022-11: BRL 1.59 per share

- 2022-12: BRL 1.82 per share

- 2023-01: BRL 1.95 per share

- 2023-02: BRL 1.92 per share

- 2023-03: BRL 1.86 per share

- 2023-04: BRL 2.11 per share

- 2023-05: BRL 2.75 per share

- 2023-06: BRL 3.24 per share

- 2023-07: BRL 3.12 per share

- 2023-08: BRL 3.70 per share

- 2023-09: BRL 3.48 per share

- 2023-10: BRL 3.11 per share

- 2023-11: BRL 3.62 per share

- 2023-12: BRL 4.24 per share

- 2024-01: BRL 4.70 per share

- 2024-02: BRL 5.23 per share

- 2024-03: BRL 5.33 per share

- 2024-04: BRL 4.83 per share

- 2024-05: BRL 4.63 per share

- 2024-06: BRL 4.49 per share

- 2024-07: BRL 4.28 per share

- 2024-08: BRL 5.25 per share

- 2024-09: BRL 5.64 per share

- 2024-10: BRL 5.95 per share

- 2024-11: BRL 5.80 per share

- 2024-12: BRL 5.12 per share

- 2025-01: BRL 5.80 per share

- 2025-02: BRL 5.23 per share

- 2025-03: BRL 4.50 per share

- 2025-04: BRL 4.96 per share

- 2025-05: BRL 5.31 per share

- 2025-06: BRL 5.91 per share

- 2025-07: BRL 6.05 per share

- 2025-08: BRL 6.73 per share

- 2025-09: BRL 6.83 per share

- 2025-10: BRL 6.20 per share

- 2025-11: BRL 5.50 per share

- 2025-12: BRL 5.74 per share

- 2026-01: BRL 6.00 per share

- 2026-02: BRL 6.52 per share

- 2026-03: BRL 5.81 per share

- 2026-04: BRL 6.44 per share

- 2026-05: BRL 5.97 per share

- 2026-06: BRL 5.64 per share

- 2026-07: BRL 4.90 per share

- 2026-08: BRL 4.08 per share

- 2026-09: BRL 3.92 per share

- 2026-10: BRL 4.46 per share

## Annual estimated value (BRL per share)

- FY2019: low BRL 1.67 per share, central BRL 1.72 per share, high BRL 1.78 per share

- FY2020: low BRL 1.48 per share, central BRL 1.52 per share, high BRL 1.57 per share

- FY2021: low BRL 1.71 per share, central BRL 1.75 per share, high BRL 1.80 per share

- FY2022: low BRL 2.21 per share, central BRL 2.29 per share, high BRL 2.39 per share

- FY2023: low BRL 4.23 per share, central BRL 4.44 per share, high BRL 4.67 per share

- FY2024: low BRL 5.62 per share, central BRL 5.91 per share, high BRL 6.23 per share

- FY2025: low BRL 5.99 per share, central BRL 7.36 per share, high BRL 7.87 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:49:25.512Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.