# Pembina Pipeline (PPL.TO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PPL.TO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:23.133Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2025.

Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: CAD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CAD 68.41 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CAD 34.73 per share, central CAD 39.52 per share, high CAD 45.90 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 39.52 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:23.133Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.0% at the stated quote. About 7.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.41×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.19×

- FY2017: 0.22×

- FY2018: 0.27×

- FY2019: 0.25×

- FY2020: 0.00×

- FY2021: 0.25×

- FY2022: 0.32×

- FY2023: 0.42×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.31×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -7.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 36.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 14.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.6%

- FY2017: 6.1%

- FY2018: 8.3%

- FY2019: 7.8%

- FY2020: 0.0%

- FY2021: 7.3%

- FY2022: 15.3%

- FY2023: 9.7%

- FY2024: 8.9%

- FY2025: 7.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CAD 9.2B

- Net income, five-year total: CAD 9.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 25.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.88×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: 0.93×

- FY2025: 1.06×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.1% vs 8.9%

- Per-share earnings: 1.17 to 3.20 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Market cap gain: CAD 14B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CAD -371M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 13.5%

- Per-share value change: CAD 2.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CAD 1.17

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CAD 3.20

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.37

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CAD 4.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CAD 13B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CAD 1.17

- FY2017: CAD 1.74

- FY2018: CAD 2.50

- FY2019: CAD 2.18

- FY2020: CAD -0.57

- FY2021: CAD 2.25

- FY2022: CAD 5.40

- FY2023: CAD 3.23

- FY2024: CAD 3.20

- FY2025: CAD 2.91

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.73×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.93×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.38×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.6%

- FY2017: -2.2%

- FY2018: -3.5%

- FY2019: -3.0%

- FY2020: -8.0%

- FY2021: -4.4%

- FY2022: 0.2%

- FY2023: -2.6%

- FY2024: -3.7%

- FY2025: -4.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.8% a year for ten years · sales +4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.370Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.8% a year for ten years

- 2026-05-14: Pembina Pipeline Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Dividend Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/pembina-pipeline-q1-earnings-beat-150800630.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546066/000154606626000014/pba-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: CAD 4.3B 

- FY2017: CAD 5.4B 

- FY2018: CAD 7.4B 

- FY2019: CAD 7.2B 

- FY2020: CAD 6.0B 

- FY2021: CAD 8.6B 

- FY2022: CAD 12B 

- FY2023: CAD 6.3B 

- FY2024: CAD 7.4B 

- FY2025: CAD 7.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 36.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546066/000154606626000014/pba-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 25.1% 

- FY2017: 26.5% 

- FY2018: 25.8% 

- FY2019: 28.3% 

- FY2020: 34.8% 

- FY2021: 28.9% 

- FY2022: 23.5% 

- FY2023: 39.9% 

- FY2024: 40.5% 

- FY2025: 36.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas midstream; annual sales are CAD 7.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546066/000154606626000014/pba-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 7682000000; grossProfit 2808000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PPL.TO: Pembina Pipeline Corporation provides energy transportation and midstream services. It operates through three segments: Pipelines, Facilities, and Marketing & New Ventures. The Pipelines segment operates conventional, oil sands and heavy oil, and transmission assets with a transportation capacity of 3.0 million of barrels of oil equivalent per day, and the ground storage capacity of 10 million of barrels serving markets and basins across North America. The Facilities segment offers infrastructure that provides customers with crude oil, natural gas, condensate, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), including ethane, propane, butane, and condensate; and includes 430 thousands of barrels of NGL fractionation capacity, 21 million of barrels of cavern storage capacity, and various oil batteries, associated pipeline, and rail terminalling facilities and a liquefied propane export facility. The Marketing & New Ventures segment buys and sells hydrocarbon liquids and natural gas originating in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin and other basins. Pembina Pipeline Corporation was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.6% to 40.5% during 2023–25; it earns 7.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 39.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546066/000154606626000014/pba-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 36.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.05572970512815769],[2017,0.06076900435534992],[2018,0.08308222677678771],[2019,0.07825084560190589],[2020,0.00014475492441594137],[2021,0.07328141927984001],[2022,0.15297979313455135],[2023,0.09673430430891168],[2024,0.08887243824514922],[2025,0.07174617413463057]]; median 0.07576613244087295. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CAD 451 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 1445000000; upkeep 394000000; owner earnings 883000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.636466591166478.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 797000000; upkeep 429000000; owner earnings 1278000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6236306729264476.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1645000000; owner earnings 147200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 10000000; upkeep 648000000; owner earnings 1097400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00911244760342628.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 605000000; owner earnings 2914000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 606000000; owner earnings 1704200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 93000000; upkeep 862000000; owner earnings 1731000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.053726169844020795.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546066/000154606626000014/pba-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 784000000; owner earnings 1797600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,351000000],[2017,781000000],[2018,1247000000],[2019,1323000000],[2020,1530000000],[2021,1521000000],[2022,1651000000],[2023,1579000000],[2024,1701000000],[2025,1772000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546066/000154606626000014/pba-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 451000000 CAD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PPL.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.042 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.09874845650534303. Price 68.41; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -3.0372340425531914 → FY2025 3.088659793814433. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share)

- 2016-10: CAD 41.21 per share

- 2016-11: CAD 39.47 per share

- 2016-12: CAD 41.96 per share

- 2017-01: CAD 40.37 per share

- 2017-02: CAD 42.92 per share

- 2017-03: CAD 42.14 per share

- 2017-04: CAD 43.50 per share

- 2017-05: CAD 43.17 per share

- 2017-06: CAD 42.95 per share

- 2017-07: CAD 42.49 per share

- 2017-08: CAD 40.25 per share

- 2017-09: CAD 43.78 per share

- 2017-10: CAD 42.65 per share

- 2017-11: CAD 44.93 per share

- 2017-12: CAD 45.51 per share

- 2018-01: CAD 41.93 per share

- 2018-02: CAD 41.26 per share

- 2018-03: CAD 40.20 per share

- 2018-04: CAD 40.89 per share

- 2018-05: CAD 45.10 per share

- 2018-06: CAD 45.53 per share

- 2018-07: CAD 46.80 per share

- 2018-08: CAD 44.51 per share

- 2018-09: CAD 43.89 per share

- 2018-10: CAD 42.58 per share

- 2018-11: CAD 44.80 per share

- 2018-12: CAD 40.51 per share

- 2019-01: CAD 46.82 per share

- 2019-02: CAD 48.16 per share

- 2019-03: CAD 49.09 per share

- 2019-04: CAD 47.90 per share

- 2019-05: CAD 48.22 per share

- 2019-06: CAD 48.75 per share

- 2019-07: CAD 47.89 per share

- 2019-08: CAD 48.74 per share

- 2019-09: CAD 49.11 per share

- 2019-10: CAD 46.37 per share

- 2019-11: CAD 46.38 per share

- 2019-12: CAD 48.13 per share

- 2020-01: CAD 50.68 per share

- 2020-02: CAD 48.35 per share

- 2020-03: CAD 26.40 per share

- 2020-04: CAD 31.92 per share

- 2020-05: CAD 34.40 per share

- 2020-06: CAD 33.94 per share

- 2020-07: CAD 32.55 per share

- 2020-08: CAD 32.30 per share

- 2020-09: CAD 28.26 per share

- 2020-10: CAD 27.89 per share

- 2020-11: CAD 33.12 per share

- 2020-12: CAD 30.10 per share

- 2021-01: CAD 33.66 per share

- 2021-02: CAD 32.36 per share

- 2021-03: CAD 36.30 per share

- 2021-04: CAD 37.94 per share

- 2021-05: CAD 38.89 per share

- 2021-06: CAD 39.39 per share

- 2021-07: CAD 41.24 per share

- 2021-08: CAD 38.45 per share

- 2021-09: CAD 40.15 per share

- 2021-10: CAD 40.97 per share

- 2021-11: CAD 37.80 per share

- 2021-12: CAD 38.37 per share

- 2022-01: CAD 40.36 per share

- 2022-02: CAD 43.10 per share

- 2022-03: CAD 46.97 per share

- 2022-04: CAD 48.61 per share

- 2022-05: CAD 51.00 per share

- 2022-06: CAD 45.50 per share

- 2022-07: CAD 48.89 per share

- 2022-08: CAD 46.38 per share

- 2022-09: CAD 41.96 per share

- 2022-10: CAD 44.98 per share

- 2022-11: CAD 49.11 per share

- 2022-12: CAD 45.96 per share

- 2023-01: CAD 47.21 per share

- 2023-02: CAD 44.80 per share

- 2023-03: CAD 43.78 per share

- 2023-04: CAD 44.60 per share

- 2023-05: CAD 41.10 per share

- 2023-06: CAD 41.65 per share

- 2023-07: CAD 41.75 per share

- 2023-08: CAD 42.00 per share

- 2023-09: CAD 40.84 per share

- 2023-10: CAD 42.68 per share

- 2023-11: CAD 45.39 per share

- 2023-12: CAD 45.62 per share

- 2024-01: CAD 46.31 per share

- 2024-02: CAD 47.23 per share

- 2024-03: CAD 47.81 per share

- 2024-04: CAD 48.44 per share

- 2024-05: CAD 50.63 per share

- 2024-06: CAD 50.76 per share

- 2024-07: CAD 53.51 per share

- 2024-08: CAD 54.29 per share

- 2024-09: CAD 55.75 per share

- 2024-10: CAD 58.25 per share

- 2024-11: CAD 57.68 per share

- 2024-12: CAD 53.11 per share

- 2025-01: CAD 52.46 per share

- 2025-02: CAD 56.24 per share

- 2025-03: CAD 57.56 per share

- 2025-04: CAD 52.70 per share

- 2025-05: CAD 51.43 per share

- 2025-06: CAD 51.13 per share

- 2025-07: CAD 51.50 per share

- 2025-08: CAD 51.87 per share

- 2025-09: CAD 56.27 per share

- 2025-10: CAD 53.06 per share

- 2025-11: CAD 54.17 per share

- 2025-12: CAD 52.29 per share

- 2026-01: CAD 56.58 per share

- 2026-02: CAD 59.95 per share

- 2026-03: CAD 62.27 per share

- 2026-04: CAD 63.23 per share

- 2026-05: CAD 64.31 per share

- 2026-06: CAD 65.62 per share

- 2026-07: CAD 68.54 per share

- 2026-08: CAD 67.56 per share

- 2026-09: CAD 63.53 per share

- 2026-10: CAD 69.14 per share

## Annual estimated value (CAD per share)

- FY2016: low CAD 7.35 per share, central CAD 8.37 per share, high CAD 9.72 per share

- FY2017: low CAD 7.75 per share, central CAD 8.76 per share, high CAD 10.11 per share

- FY2018: low CAD 12.36 per share, central CAD 17.65 per share, high CAD 20.73 per share

- FY2019: low CAD 2.33 per share, central CAD 2.65 per share, high CAD 3.08 per share

- FY2020: low CAD 2.41 per share, central CAD 2.74 per share, high CAD 3.18 per share

- FY2021: low CAD 23.97 per share, central CAD 30.24 per share, high CAD 35.31 per share

- FY2022: low CAD 33.80 per share, central CAD 44.60 per share, high CAD 52.19 per share

- FY2023: low CAD 16.02 per share, central CAD 18.23 per share, high CAD 21.17 per share

- FY2024: low CAD 32.51 per share, central CAD 36.99 per share, high CAD 42.96 per share

- FY2025: low CAD 33.82 per share, central CAD 38.48 per share, high CAD 44.69 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:09.035Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546066/000154606626000014/pba-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.