# PROG Holdings (PRG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PRG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:18.998Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $31.11 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $58.26 per share, central $66.17 per share, high $76.71 per share. Buy at or below the central value $66.17 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:18.998Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 18.6% at the stated quote. About 18.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.35×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.08×

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.01×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.10×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 19.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 33.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 15.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.2%

- FY2017: 16.8%

- FY2018: 14.8%

- FY2019: 1.3%

- FY2020: 31.6%

- FY2021: 30.3%

- FY2022: 16.4%

- FY2023: 21.3%

- FY2024: 21.3%

- FY2025: 22.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.27×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $825M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 33.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.08×

- FY2022: 2.18×

- FY2023: 1.22×

- FY2024: 0.51×

- FY2025: 2.02×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.8% vs 21.3%

- Per-share earnings: 1.92 to 3.59 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -5.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -9.7%

- Market cap gain: -$758M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $60M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -9.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.1%

- Per-share value change: $1.67

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.92

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.59

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.52

- Average buyback yield: 8.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $225M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.92

- FY2017: $4.05

- FY2018: $2.78

- FY2019: $0.47

- FY2020: -$0.90

- FY2021: $3.67

- FY2022: $1.90

- FY2023: $2.98

- FY2024: $4.53

- FY2025: $3.59

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -11.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.71×

- Restructuring years, last five: 4

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.28×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.47×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -12.5%

- FY2017: 5.0%

- FY2018: -5.7%

- FY2019: -8.7%

- FY2020: -39.3%

- FY2021: -0.1%

- FY2022: -9.6%

- FY2023: -4.4%

- FY2024: 3.9%

- FY2025: -11.7%

## Holders

- [C.T. Fitzpatrick](https://gigainvestors.com/VVP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 36% since Nov 2024 · "Prog Q4 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Fall; Q1, 2026 Outlook Issued" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales -2.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:26.258Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-24: Prog Holdings raises 2025 revenue outlook to $2.5B as Four Technologies delivers 200% growth ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4471114-prog-holdings-raises-2025-revenue-outlook-to-2_5b-as-four-technologies-delivers-200-percent?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-18: Prog Q4 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Fall; Q1, 2026 Outlook Issued ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prog-q4-adjusted-earnings-revenue-131750805.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -2.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1808834/000180883426000012/prg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: $3.2B 

- FY2017: $3.4B 

- FY2018: $3.8B 

- FY2019: $2.2B 

- FY2020: $2.5B 

- FY2021: $2.7B 

- FY2022: $2.6B 

- FY2023: $2.4B 

- FY2024: $2.5B 

- FY2025: $2.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 33%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1808834/000180883426000012/prg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: 90.8% 

- FY2017: 92.3% 

- FY2018: 94.9% 

- FY2019: 33.2% 

- FY2020: 31.9% 

- FY2021: 32.0% 

- FY2022: 32.3% 

- FY2023: 34.5% 

- FY2025: 33.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in rental & leasing services; annual sales are USD 2.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1808834/000180883426000012/prg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 2409223000; grossProfit 794527000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); PRG.US: PROG Holdings, Inc., a financial technology holding company, provides payment options to consumers in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Progressive Leasing and Four. It owns Progressive Leasing, an in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale lease-to-own solutions provider; and Four, which enables consumers of all credit backgrounds to pay for purchases over time through short-term, interest-free instalment buy-now-pay-later BNPL plans. The company offers Purchasing Power, that provides these underserved customers with alternatives to traditional financing options. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 19% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 34.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1808834/000180883426000012/prg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.12221626488194394],[2017,0.1675641394228587],[2018,0.14815300808809287],[2019,0.012598878146745032],[2020,0.3158416296671411],[2021,0.30253861881198896],[2022,0.16381040312351566],[2023,0.21343759327149361],[2024,0.2133229862613066],[2025,0.22615249492119438]]; median 0.19044356284208264. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 10 years; bought back USD 51.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 57453000; owner earnings 386521000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 57973000; owner earnings 317135000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 78845000; owner earnings 211515000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 92963000; owner earnings 40670000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 9555000; cash acquisitions 22766000; owner earnings 262360000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08677389846013112.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 9674000; cash acquisitions 6000; owner earnings 215284000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.000027870162204344028.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 9616000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 169700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 8316000; owner earnings 101030000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1808834/000180883426000012/prg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 10042000; owner earnings 296113000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,7420000],[2017,7962000],[2018,6243000],[2019,9437000],[2020,13778000],[2021,4592000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,20393000],[2025,20767000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1808834/000180883426000012/prg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 51775000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); PRG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.324 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 8.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 19.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.1363385900866852. Price 31.11; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.2561208614242432 → FY2025 7.246482147664146. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $20.96 per share

- 2016-11: $24.70 per share

- 2016-12: $27.13 per share

- 2017-01: $26.24 per share

- 2017-02: $23.14 per share

- 2017-03: $25.22 per share

- 2017-04: $30.48 per share

- 2017-05: $30.98 per share

- 2017-06: $32.99 per share

- 2017-07: $39.25 per share

- 2017-08: $37.55 per share

- 2017-09: $37.01 per share

- 2017-10: $31.21 per share

- 2017-11: $31.99 per share

- 2017-12: $33.80 per share

- 2018-01: $34.68 per share

- 2018-02: $39.19 per share

- 2018-03: $39.53 per share

- 2018-04: $35.43 per share

- 2018-05: $33.74 per share

- 2018-06: $36.85 per share

- 2018-07: $36.73 per share

- 2018-08: $42.17 per share

- 2018-09: $46.19 per share

- 2018-10: $39.97 per share

- 2018-11: $39.69 per share

- 2018-12: $35.67 per share

- 2019-01: $42.46 per share

- 2019-02: $46.05 per share

- 2019-03: $44.61 per share

- 2019-04: $47.23 per share

- 2019-05: $45.17 per share

- 2019-06: $52.09 per share

- 2019-07: $53.48 per share

- 2019-08: $54.38 per share

- 2019-09: $54.50 per share

- 2019-10: $63.55 per share

- 2019-11: $49.53 per share

- 2019-12: $48.44 per share

- 2020-01: $50.35 per share

- 2020-02: $33.36 per share

- 2020-03: $19.32 per share

- 2020-04: $27.07 per share

- 2020-05: $31.31 per share

- 2020-06: $38.51 per share

- 2020-07: $44.26 per share

- 2020-08: $47.40 per share

- 2020-09: $48.05 per share

- 2020-10: $44.33 per share

- 2020-11: $53.38 per share

- 2020-12: $53.87 per share

- 2021-01: $47.18 per share

- 2021-02: $50.00 per share

- 2021-03: $43.29 per share

- 2021-04: $50.94 per share

- 2021-05: $52.72 per share

- 2021-06: $48.13 per share

- 2021-07: $43.77 per share

- 2021-08: $47.32 per share

- 2021-09: $42.01 per share

- 2021-10: $40.45 per share

- 2021-11: $45.12 per share

- 2021-12: $45.11 per share

- 2022-01: $39.81 per share

- 2022-02: $30.64 per share

- 2022-03: $28.77 per share

- 2022-04: $26.47 per share

- 2022-05: $29.19 per share

- 2022-06: $16.50 per share

- 2022-07: $18.42 per share

- 2022-08: $18.54 per share

- 2022-09: $14.98 per share

- 2022-10: $16.52 per share

- 2022-11: $19.69 per share

- 2022-12: $16.89 per share

- 2023-01: $22.29 per share

- 2023-02: $24.72 per share

- 2023-03: $23.79 per share

- 2023-04: $30.23 per share

- 2023-05: $32.63 per share

- 2023-06: $32.12 per share

- 2023-07: $40.58 per share

- 2023-08: $34.30 per share

- 2023-09: $33.21 per share

- 2023-10: $27.39 per share

- 2023-11: $27.26 per share

- 2023-12: $30.91 per share

- 2024-01: $30.64 per share

- 2024-02: $30.87 per share

- 2024-03: $34.44 per share

- 2024-04: $33.24 per share

- 2024-05: $37.79 per share

- 2024-06: $34.68 per share

- 2024-07: $45.06 per share

- 2024-08: $46.76 per share

- 2024-09: $48.49 per share

- 2024-10: $43.67 per share

- 2024-11: $48.66 per share

- 2024-12: $42.26 per share

- 2025-01: $42.75 per share

- 2025-02: $28.37 per share

- 2025-03: $26.60 per share

- 2025-04: $26.36 per share

- 2025-05: $28.83 per share

- 2025-06: $29.35 per share

- 2025-07: $31.84 per share

- 2025-08: $35.24 per share

- 2025-09: $32.36 per share

- 2025-10: $28.93 per share

- 2025-11: $28.78 per share

- 2025-12: $29.49 per share

- 2026-01: $32.44 per share

- 2026-02: $35.21 per share

- 2026-03: $28.69 per share

- 2026-04: $35.83 per share

- 2026-05: $36.77 per share

- 2026-06: $46.61 per share

- 2026-07: $44.02 per share

- 2026-08: $38.13 per share

- 2026-09: $30.92 per share

- 2026-10: $31.11 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $17.40 per share, central $19.34 per share, high $21.91 per share

- FY2017: low $47.93 per share, central $54.54 per share, high $63.34 per share

- FY2018: low $32.75 per share, central $37.26 per share, high $43.27 per share

- FY2019: low $19.62 per share, central $22.29 per share, high $25.85 per share

- FY2020: low $22.05 per share, central $25.10 per share, high $29.14 per share

- FY2021: low $26.10 per share, central $29.46 per share, high $33.93 per share

- FY2022: low $31.66 per share, central $35.81 per share, high $41.34 per share

- FY2023: low $57.70 per share, central $65.34 per share, high $75.51 per share

- FY2024: low $44.63 per share, central $50.64 per share, high $58.64 per share

- FY2025: low $59.78 per share, central $67.15 per share, high $76.95 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1808834/000180883426000012/prg-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.