# Primo Brands (PRMB.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PRMB

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:20.223Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $18.98 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $6.98 per share, central $7.86 per share, high $9.02 per share. Buy at or below the central value $7.86 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:20.223Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.7% at the stated quote. About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 6

- Operating margin variation: 0.43×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.02×

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 19.4pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 19.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 50.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.5%

- FY2017: 3.3%

- FY2018: 7.5%

- FY2019: 5.6%

- FY2020: 6.3%

- FY2021: 5.1%

- FY2022: 5.1%

- FY2023: 10.4%

- FY2024: 7.4%

- FY2025: 10.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 4.71×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $768M

- Net income, five-year total: $163M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -7.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -19.97×

- FY2022: 1.67×

- FY2023: 2.10×

- FY2024: -10.16×

- FY2025: 4.87×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.3% vs 10.3%

- Per-share earnings: -0.01 to 0.16 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 13.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 18.5%

- Market cap gain: $4.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$2.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 13.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 18.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.17

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.01

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.16

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.48

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$144M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.56

- FY2017: -$0.01

- FY2018: -$0.33

- FY2019: $0.02

- FY2020: -$1.16

- FY2021: -$0.02

- FY2022: $0.14

- FY2023: $0.43

- FY2024: -$0.07

- FY2025: $0.16

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -5.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.75×

- Restructuring years, last five: 4

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 11.44×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.20×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.7%

- FY2017: -4.3%

- FY2018: -9.1%

- FY2019: -7.2%

- FY2020: -10.0%

- FY2021: -6.7%

- FY2022: -6.9%

- FY2023: -4.4%

- FY2024: -4.3%

- FY2025: -5.9%

## Holders

- [David Einhorn](https://gigainvestors.com/GLRE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 47% since Mar 2025 · "Revised Net Sales Growth Guidance: Between flat and 1% for full year 2025." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +29.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:26.672Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-05: Primo Brands Faces Temporary Q2 Weakness From Weather, Delivery Issues, RBC Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/primo-brands-faces-temporary-q2-154906536.html))

- 2025-12-09: Soft Retail Volumes Prompt Mizuho to Trim Primo Brands (PRMB) Target ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soft-retail-volumes-prompt-mizuho-023415464.html))

- 2026-02-27: Primo Brands (PRMB) Rockets 15% on Swing to Profits ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/primo-brands-prmb-rockets-15-103833430.html))

- 2026-05-05: Primo Brands' Q1 Faces Pressure From Service Disruptions, Cost Headwinds, RBC Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/primo-brands-apos-q1-faces-151350358.html))

- 2026-07-14: Primo Brands Rides Premium Water Demand as Costs Restrain Margin Gains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/primo-brands-rides-premium-water-134100751.html))

- 2026-08-05: Primo Brands Beats Q2 Earnings Estimates, Raises 2026 Sales Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/primo-brands-beats-q2-earnings-173900280.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +29.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2042694/000162828026012779/prmb-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $1.6B 

- FY2017: $2.3B 

- FY2018: $2.4B 

- FY2019: $1.8B 

- FY2020: $2.0B 

- FY2021: $2.1B 

- FY2022: $1.7B 

- FY2023: $4.7B 

- FY2024: $5.2B 

- FY2025: $6.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 32.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2042694/000162828026012779/prmb-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 52.0% 

- FY2017: 49.6% 

- FY2018: 49.8% 

- FY2019: 59.6% 

- FY2020: 57.0% 

- FY2021: 55.8% 

- FY2022: 60.2% 

- FY2023: 28.8% 

- FY2024: 31.5% 

- FY2025: 32.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages non-alcoholic; annual sales are USD 6.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2042694/000162828026012779/prmb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 6664000000; grossProfit 2143600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PRMB.US: Primo Brands Corporation operates as a branded beverage company in North America. It offers bottle water solutions and water filtration services; and premium spring and sparkling water, purified water, self-service refill drinking water, flavored and enhanced beverages, water dispensers, and filtration equipment. The company has a portfolio of packaged branded beverages under the Poland Spring, Pure Life, Saratoga, Mountain Valley, Arrowhead, Deer Park, Ice Mountain, Ozarka, and Zephyrhills brands; purified brands, including Primo Water and Sparkletts; and flavored and enhanced brands, such as AC+ION and Splash Refresher. It distributes direct-to-consumer, retail, commercial and residential customers, and e-commerce and digital platforms. The company is based in Tampa, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 28.8% to 32.2% during 2023–25; it earns 6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2042694/000162828026012779/prmb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 32.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.015261964865282572],[2017,0.03336446700507614],[2018,0.07488104182319058],[2019,0.05590978239301541],[2020,0.0631329212711494],[2021,0.05059856097258405],[2022,0.05054534160037078],[2023,0.10425251467745801],[2024,0.07431129476584022],[2025,0.10264236184072284]]; median 0.0595213518320824. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 9.9% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 121300000; owner earnings 65900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 130800000; owner earnings 18800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 101300000; owner earnings 70200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 152000000; owner earnings 63900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 162100000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 49500000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 203600000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 194900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 150200000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 166700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2042694/000162828026012779/prmb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 377400000; cash acquisitions 29000000; owner earnings 292900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09900990099009901.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,31400000],[2017,33400000],[2018,33400000],[2019,32500000],[2020,39600000],[2021,38900000],[2022,45400000],[2023,49900000],[2024,615800000],[2025,151300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2042694/000162828026012779/prmb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 421500000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PRMB.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.3010000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.6% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 2.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.16939656283632287. Price 18.98; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.0528714676390154 → FY2025 0.7813396146387138. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $13.11 per share

- 2016-11: $11.35 per share

- 2016-12: $11.33 per share

- 2017-01: $10.60 per share

- 2017-02: $10.66 per share

- 2017-03: $12.36 per share

- 2017-04: $13.17 per share

- 2017-05: $13.19 per share

- 2017-06: $14.44 per share

- 2017-07: $15.54 per share

- 2017-08: $15.18 per share

- 2017-09: $15.01 per share

- 2017-10: $15.00 per share

- 2017-11: $17.17 per share

- 2017-12: $16.66 per share

- 2018-01: $16.66 per share

- 2018-02: $14.55 per share

- 2018-03: $14.72 per share

- 2018-04: $14.30 per share

- 2018-05: $15.78 per share

- 2018-06: $16.55 per share

- 2018-07: $15.99 per share

- 2018-08: $15.60 per share

- 2018-09: $16.15 per share

- 2018-10: $15.04 per share

- 2018-11: $14.85 per share

- 2018-12: $13.94 per share

- 2019-01: $15.18 per share

- 2019-02: $15.01 per share

- 2019-03: $14.61 per share

- 2019-04: $15.51 per share

- 2019-05: $13.02 per share

- 2019-06: $13.35 per share

- 2019-07: $12.79 per share

- 2019-08: $12.61 per share

- 2019-09: $12.47 per share

- 2019-10: $12.85 per share

- 2019-11: $13.37 per share

- 2019-12: $13.68 per share

- 2020-01: $15.29 per share

- 2020-02: $14.25 per share

- 2020-03: $9.06 per share

- 2020-04: $10.26 per share

- 2020-05: $12.03 per share

- 2020-06: $13.75 per share

- 2020-07: $14.21 per share

- 2020-08: $13.68 per share

- 2020-09: $14.20 per share

- 2020-10: $12.53 per share

- 2020-11: $15.03 per share

- 2020-12: $15.68 per share

- 2021-01: $15.45 per share

- 2021-02: $14.29 per share

- 2021-03: $16.26 per share

- 2021-04: $16.74 per share

- 2021-05: $17.31 per share

- 2021-06: $16.73 per share

- 2021-07: $16.53 per share

- 2021-08: $17.76 per share

- 2021-09: $15.72 per share

- 2021-10: $15.90 per share

- 2021-11: $16.62 per share

- 2021-12: $17.63 per share

- 2022-01: $16.70 per share

- 2022-02: $14.54 per share

- 2022-03: $14.25 per share

- 2022-04: $14.64 per share

- 2022-05: $14.32 per share

- 2022-06: $13.38 per share

- 2022-07: $13.22 per share

- 2022-08: $13.14 per share

- 2022-09: $12.55 per share

- 2022-10: $14.59 per share

- 2022-11: $15.65 per share

- 2022-12: $15.54 per share

- 2023-01: $15.65 per share

- 2023-02: $15.48 per share

- 2023-03: $15.35 per share

- 2023-04: $15.19 per share

- 2023-05: $12.87 per share

- 2023-06: $12.54 per share

- 2023-07: $14.17 per share

- 2023-08: $15.26 per share

- 2023-09: $13.80 per share

- 2023-10: $13.06 per share

- 2023-11: $14.37 per share

- 2023-12: $15.05 per share

- 2024-01: $14.58 per share

- 2024-02: $16.21 per share

- 2024-03: $18.21 per share

- 2024-04: $18.87 per share

- 2024-05: $22.56 per share

- 2024-06: $21.86 per share

- 2024-07: $21.93 per share

- 2024-08: $22.10 per share

- 2024-09: $25.25 per share

- 2024-10: $26.23 per share

- 2024-11: $28.52 per share

- 2024-12: $30.77 per share

- 2025-01: $32.37 per share

- 2025-02: $33.69 per share

- 2025-03: $35.49 per share

- 2025-04: $32.67 per share

- 2025-05: $33.07 per share

- 2025-06: $29.62 per share

- 2025-07: $27.61 per share

- 2025-08: $25.11 per share

- 2025-09: $22.10 per share

- 2025-10: $21.97 per share

- 2025-11: $15.69 per share

- 2025-12: $16.35 per share

- 2026-01: $18.94 per share

- 2026-02: $22.68 per share

- 2026-03: $18.83 per share

- 2026-04: $20.38 per share

- 2026-05: $24.80 per share

- 2026-06: $24.44 per share

- 2026-07: $22.70 per share

- 2026-08: $22.82 per share

- 2026-09: $19.05 per share

- 2026-10: $18.98 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $4.86 per share, central $5.48 per share, high $6.31 per share

- FY2017: low $5.85 per share, central $6.62 per share, high $7.63 per share

- FY2018: low $6.43 per share, central $7.20 per share, high $8.21 per share

- FY2019: low $5.06 per share, central $5.64 per share, high $6.40 per share

- FY2020: low $1.53 per share, central $1.67 per share, high $1.87 per share

- FY2021: low $4.63 per share, central $5.20 per share, high $5.95 per share

- FY2022: low $2.68 per share, central $3.03 per share, high $3.48 per share

- FY2023: low $7.25 per share, central $8.25 per share, high $9.58 per share

- FY2024: low $9.27 per share, central $10.26 per share, high $11.58 per share

- FY2025: low $6.94 per share, central $7.80 per share, high $8.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2042694/000162828026012779/prmb-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.