# Pearson (PSON.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PSON.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:47.651Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 1,353.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 1,222.91 per share, central GBX 1,385.39 per share, high GBX 1,601.68 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 1,385.39 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:47.651Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.2% at the stated quote. About 10.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 4.69×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.55×

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.18×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 50.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 48.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -65.7%

- FY2017: 17.2%

- FY2018: 21.6%

- FY2019: 8.1%

- FY2020: 9.6%

- FY2021: 7.1%

- FY2022: 7.9%

- FY2023: 16.1%

- FY2024: 18.2%

- FY2025: 19.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 3.0B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 1.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 2.22×

- FY2022: 2.23×

- FY2023: 1.76×

- FY2024: 1.66×

- FY2025: 2.11×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.2% vs 18.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.50 to 0.53 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.9%

- Market cap gain: GBP 165M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP -87M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 0.7%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.03

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.50

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.53

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.02

- Average buyback yield: 2.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 480M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 817M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP -2.87

- FY2017: GBP 0.50

- FY2018: GBP 0.76

- FY2019: GBP 0.34

- FY2020: GBP 0.44

- FY2021: GBP 0.23

- FY2022: GBP 0.33

- FY2023: GBP 0.53

- FY2024: GBP 0.64

- FY2025: GBP 0.51

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.06×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.82×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -27.3%

- FY2017: 1.4%

- FY2018: 1.6%

- FY2019: -1.4%

- FY2020: -0.8%

- FY2021: -2.0%

- FY2022: -1.6%

- FY2023: -2.2%

- FY2024: -2.8%

- FY2025: -5.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.6% a year for ten years · sales +0.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:06.101Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +0.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31/reports/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-05-12.

- FY2016: GBP 4.6B 

- FY2017: GBP 4.5B 

- FY2018: GBP 4.1B 

- FY2019: GBP 3.9B 

- FY2020: GBP 3.4B 

- FY2021: GBP 3.4B 

- FY2022: GBP 3.8B 

- FY2023: GBP 3.7B 

- FY2024: GBP 3.6B 

- FY2025: GBP 3.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 48%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31/reports/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-05-12.

- FY2016: 54.0% 

- FY2017: 54.2% 

- FY2018: 52.9% 

- FY2019: 52.0% 

- FY2020: 48.0% 

- FY2021: 49.0% 

- FY2022: 46.7% 

- FY2023: 49.9% 

- FY2024: 51.0% 

- FY2025: 48.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in publishing; annual sales are GBP 3.6 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31/reports/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-05-12); FY2025: revenue 3577000000; grossProfit 1718000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PSON.LSE: Pearson plc provides educational courseware, assessments, and services in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, the Asia Pacific, other European countries, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Assessment & Qualifications, Virtual Learning, English Language Learning, Enterprise Learning & Skills, and Higher Education. The Assessment & Qualifications segment offers pearson professional assessments, US student assessment, clinical assessment, UK GCSE, and A levels and international academic qualifications and associated courseware, including the English-speaking Canadian and Australian K-12 businesses, and PDR. The Virtual Learning segment provides virtual schools and online program management. The English Language Learning segment offers Pearson test of English, institutional courseware, and English online solutions. The Enterprise Learning & Skills segment provides vocational qualifications, GED, TalentLens, Faethm, Credly, Pearson College, and Enterprise content and training. The Higher Education segment engages in the US, Canadian, and international higher education courseware businesses. Pearson plc was founded in 1844 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 48% to 51% during 2023–25; it earns 12.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 49.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 51%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31/reports/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-05-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 48%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.6571052631578947],[2017,0.17194084744464028],[2018,0.21626906531091122],[2019,0.0808585710085269],[2020,0.09587035155012076],[2021,0.07071097372488408],[2022,0.07891991759979568],[2023,0.16067557780462682],[2024,0.18238781678679375],[2025,0.1959785777635857]]; median 0.12827296467737379. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 424 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 232000000; owner earnings 825000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 200000000; owner earnings 979000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 193000000; owner earnings 498400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 134000000; owner earnings 644400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 176000000; owner earnings 392400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 147000000; owner earnings 539200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 126000000; owner earnings 665600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 124000000; owner earnings 719600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31/reports/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-05-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 29000000; owner earnings 705400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,424000000],[2017,318000000],[2018,136000000],[2019,147000000],[2020,146000000],[2021,149000000],[2022,156000000],[2023,154000000],[2024,156000000],[2025,160000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31/reports/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-05-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 424000000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PSON.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.5539999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.6% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 6.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.004349265723903761. Price 1353; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.183427587902631 → FY2025 1.084088306938073. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 757.50 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 795.50 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 818.50 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 619.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 674.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 682.50 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 639.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 706.50 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 691.50 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 657.50 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 606.50 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 612.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 703.50 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 708.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 736.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 693.80 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 732.40 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 749.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 833.80 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 901.60 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 885.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 924.60 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 917.40 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 890.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 898.60 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 963.40 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 938.40 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 906.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 846.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 836.20 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 830.20 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 787.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 819.40 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 871.20 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 831.40 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 738.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 682.20 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 646.60 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 637.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 568.40 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 557.60 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 552.60 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 459.80 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 463.40 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 575.80 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 531.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 559.40 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 549.20 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 510.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 647.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 680.40 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 812.60 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 751.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 771.60 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 830.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 818.20 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 830.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 869.40 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 767.60 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 711.80 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 602.40 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 593.20 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 613.20 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 615.20 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 648.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 750.60 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 785.80 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 754.40 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 749.80 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 756.60 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 862.80 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 866.80 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 960.40 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 995.20 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 939.20 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 923.60 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 918.40 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 844.40 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 887.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 798.20 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 822.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 864.60 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 839.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 868.40 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 951.60 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 937.20 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 964.20 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 971.60 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 960.60 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 1,042.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 973.60 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 948.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 990.80 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 1,056.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 1,056.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 1,013.50 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 1,139.50 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 1,233.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 1,282.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 1,342.50 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 1,361.50 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 1,218.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 1,196.50 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 1,165.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 1,071.50 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 1,072.50 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 1,077.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 1,056.50 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 1,060.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 997.60 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 1,050.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 957.40 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 959.80 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 989.60 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 1,081.50 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 1,112.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 1,196.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 1,257.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 1,233.50 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 1,216.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 1,353.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 970.44 per share, central GBX 1,080.92 per share, high GBX 1,227.99 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 913.22 per share, central GBX 1,031.74 per share, high GBX 1,189.51 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 1,123.12 per share, central GBX 1,269.37 per share, high GBX 1,464.05 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 1,038.76 per share, central GBX 1,175.62 per share, high GBX 1,357.80 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 1,038.96 per share, central GBX 1,163.35 per share, high GBX 1,328.94 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 1,016.32 per share, central GBX 1,140.68 per share, high GBX 1,306.23 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 871.76 per share, central GBX 983.14 per share, high GBX 1,131.42 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 821.04 per share, central GBX 929.65 per share, high GBX 1,074.23 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 1,100.38 per share, central GBX 1,242.56 per share, high GBX 1,431.83 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 1,128.74 per share, central GBX 1,278.83 per share, high GBX 1,478.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:33.452Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31/reports/2138004JBXWWJKIURC57-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-05-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Pearson

PSON · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 1,353.00
Buy up to: GBX 1,385.39
Expected / yr: 10.2% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Sales fell in 6 years (limit 5), and margins varied 468.9% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

10y median: 9.2%
Worst year: -54.9%
Latest · 2025: 17.7%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 12.8% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 7.1% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 12.8%
Worst year: -65.7%
Latest · 2025: 19.6%

Each $1 of profit left $1.93 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.93×
Annual median: 2.11×
Latest · 2025: 2.11×

Per-share value rose from 0.5 to 0.53, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.47
Worst year: GBP -2.87
Latest · 2025: GBP 0.51

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -5.5% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -1.8%
Worst year: 1.6%
Latest · 2025: -5.5%

Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 4.3%, three-year average owner earnings per share 1.02 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 757.50 · Value 1080.92 · Buy at or below 1080.92; 2016-11 · Price GBX 795.50 · Value 1080.92 · Buy at or below 1080.92; 2016-12 · Price GBX 818.50 · Value 1080.92 · Buy at or below 1080.92; 2017-01 · Price GBX 619.00 · Value 1080.92 · Buy at or below 1080.92; 2017-02 · Price GBX 674.00 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2017-03 · Price GBX 682.50 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2017-04 · Price GBX 639.00 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2017-05 · Price GBX 706.50 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2017-06 · Price GBX 691.50 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2017-07 · Price GBX 657.50 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2017-08 · Price GBX 606.50 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2017-09 · Price GBX 612.00 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2017-10 · Price GBX 703.50 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2017-11 · Price GBX 708.00 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2017-12 · Price GBX 736.00 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2018-01 · Price GBX 693.80 · Value 1031.74 · Buy at or below 1031.74; 2018-02 · Price GBX 732.40 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2018-03 · Price GBX 749.00 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2018-04 · Price GBX 833.80 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2018-05 · Price GBX 901.60 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2018-06 · Price GBX 885.00 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2018-07 · Price GBX 924.60 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2018-08 · Price GBX 917.40 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2018-09 · Price GBX 890.00 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2018-10 · Price GBX 898.60 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2018-11 · Price GBX 963.40 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2018-12 · Price GBX 938.40 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2019-01 · Price GBX 906.00 · Value 1269.37 · Buy at or below 1269.37; 2019-02 · Price GBX 846.00 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2019-03 · Price GBX 836.20 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2019-04 · Price GBX 830.20 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2019-05 · Price GBX 787.00 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2019-06 · Price GBX 819.40 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2019-07 · Price GBX 871.20 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2019-08 · Price GBX 831.40 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2019-09 · Price GBX 738.00 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2019-10 · Price GBX 682.20 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2019-11 · Price GBX 646.60 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2019-12 · Price GBX 637.00 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2020-01 · Price GBX 568.40 · Value 1175.62 · Buy at or below 1175.62; 2020-02 · Price GBX 557.60 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2020-03 · Price GBX 552.60 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2020-04 · Price GBX 459.80 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2020-05 · Price GBX 463.40 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2020-06 · Price GBX 575.80 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2020-07 · Price GBX 531.00 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2020-08 · Price GBX 559.40 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2020-09 · Price GBX 549.20 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2020-10 · Price GBX 510.00 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2020-11 · Price GBX 647.00 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2020-12 · Price GBX 680.40 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2021-01 · Price GBX 812.60 · Value 1163.35 · Buy at or below 1163.35; 2021-02 · Price GBX 751.00 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2021-03 · Price GBX 771.60 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2021-04 · Price GBX 830.00 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2021-05 · Price GBX 818.20 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2021-06 · Price GBX 830.00 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2021-07 · Price GBX 869.40 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2021-08 · Price GBX 767.60 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2021-09 · Price GBX 711.80 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2021-10 · Price GBX 602.40 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2021-11 · Price GBX 593.20 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2021-12 · Price GBX 613.20 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2022-01 · Price GBX 615.20 · Value 1140.68 · Buy at or below 1140.68; 2022-02 · Price GBX 648.00 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2022-03 · Price GBX 750.60 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2022-04 · Price GBX 785.80 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2022-05 · Price GBX 754.40 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2022-06 · Price GBX 749.80 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2022-07 · Price GBX 756.60 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2022-08 · Price GBX 862.80 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2022-09 · Price GBX 866.80 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2022-10 · Price GBX 960.40 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2022-11 · Price GBX 995.20 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2022-12 · Price GBX 939.20 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2023-01 · Price GBX 923.60 · Value 983.14 · Buy at or below 983.14; 2023-02 · Price GBX 918.40 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2023-03 · Price GBX 844.40 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2023-04 · Price GBX 887.00 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2023-05 · Price GBX 798.20 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2023-06 · Price GBX 822.00 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2023-07 · Price GBX 864.60 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2023-08 · Price GBX 839.00 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2023-09 · Price GBX 868.40 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2023-10 · Price GBX 951.60 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2023-11 · Price GBX 937.20 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2023-12 · Price GBX 964.20 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2024-01 · Price GBX 971.60 · Value 929.65 · Buy at or below 929.65; 2024-02 · Price GBX 960.60 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2024-03 · Price GBX 1042.00 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2024-04 · Price GBX 973.60 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2024-05 · Price GBX 948.00 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2024-06 · Price GBX 990.80 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2024-07 · Price GBX 1056.00 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2024-08 · Price GBX 1056.00 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2024-09 · Price GBX 1013.50 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2024-10 · Price GBX 1139.50 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2024-11 · Price GBX 1233.00 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2024-12 · Price GBX 1282.00 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2025-01 · Price GBX 1342.50 · Value 1242.56 · Buy at or below 1242.56; 2025-02 · Price GBX 1361.50 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2025-03 · Price GBX 1218.00 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2025-04 · Price GBX 1196.50 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2025-05 · Price GBX 1165.00 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2025-06 · Price GBX 1071.50 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2025-07 · Price GBX 1072.50 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2025-08 · Price GBX 1077.00 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2025-09 · Price GBX 1056.50 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2025-10 · Price GBX 1060.00 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2025-11 · Price GBX 997.60 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2025-12 · Price GBX 1050.00 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2026-01 · Price GBX 957.40 · Value 1278.83 · Buy at or below 1278.83; 2026-02 · Price GBX 959.80 · Value 1385.39 · Buy at or below 1385.39; 2026-03 · Price GBX 989.60 · Value 1385.39 · Buy at or below 1385.39; 2026-04 · Price GBX 1081.50 · Value 1385.39 · Buy at or below 1385.39; 2026-05 · Price GBX 1112.00 · Value 1385.39 · Buy at or below 1385.39; 2026-06 · Price GBX 1196.00 · Value 1385.39 · Buy at or below 1385.39; 2026-07 · Price GBX 1257.00 · Value 1385.39 · Buy at or below 1385.39; 2026-08 · Price GBX 1233.50 · Value 1385.39 · Buy at or below 1385.39; 2026-09 · Price GBX 1216.00 · Value 1385.39 · Buy at or below 1385.39; 2026-10 · Price GBX 1353.00 · Value 1385.39 · Buy at or below 1385.39; 2026-10 · Price GBX 1353.00 · Value 1385.39 · Buy at or below 1385.39

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 1,222.91 – GBX 1,601.68
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 1,385.39
Discount to value	1 − 1353.00 / 1385.39 = 2.3%
Return / year	About 10.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 107.81/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 44.50/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 3.6B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 705M

Owner earnings

Operating margin17.7%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -1.1B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares651M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·