# Phillips 66 (PSX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PSX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:22.254Z. Financial observations: FY2009–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $289.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $174.29 per share, central $197.96 per share, high $229.48 per share. Buy at or below the central value $197.96 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:22.254Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.7% at the stated quote. About 7.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.92×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.02×

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: -0.03×

- FY2021: 0.01×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 4.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 4.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.3%

- FY2017: 7.0%

- FY2018: 13.5%

- FY2019: 8.1%

- FY2020: -4.6%

- FY2021: 3.8%

- FY2022: 20.1%

- FY2023: 14.0%

- FY2024: 4.3%

- FY2025: 5.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.04×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $27B

- Net income, five-year total: $26B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.94×

- FY2024: 1.26×

- FY2025: 1.23×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.0% vs 5.9%

- Per-share earnings: 7.73 to 10.79 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Market cap gain: $6.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $21B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 4.3%

- Per-share value change: $3.06

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $7.73

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $10.79

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 4.5%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $468M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $37B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.93

- FY2017: $9.85

- FY2018: $11.80

- FY2019: $6.78

- FY2020: -$9.06

- FY2021: $2.99

- FY2022: $23.27

- FY2023: $15.45

- FY2024: $5.02

- FY2025: $10.79

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.13×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.7%

- FY2017: 2.7%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -2.9%

- FY2020: -11.1%

- FY2021: -8.5%

- FY2022: 0.3%

- FY2023: -0.0%

- FY2024: -2.9%

- FY2025: -0.8%

## Holders

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.7% a year for ten years · "Phillips 66 sees strong refining margins continuing through 2027" (seekingalpha.com, Aug 2026) · sales -7.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:27.135Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-25: Phillips 66 Posts Wider-Than-Expected Q1 Loss on Lower Refining Volumes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/phillips-66-posts-wider-expected-171800718.html))

- 2025-07-25: Phillips 66 profit beats estimates on higher refining margins ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/phillips-66-beats-secondquarter-profit-estimates-on-higher-refining-margins-4153032))

- 2026-01-10: Why Phillips 66 (PSX) Is Up 8.9% After Lindsey Refinery Deal And Refining Gains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-phillips-66-psx-8-151445157.html))

- 2026-02-04: Phillips 66 Q4 Earnings Top Estimates on Higher Realized Refining Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/phillips-66-q4-earnings-top-154600153.html))

- 2026-03-25: Raymond James Sets $205 Target on PSX as Refining Margins Nearly Double ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/raymond-james-sets-205-target-143903825.html))

- 2026-08-06: Phillips 66 Profit Jumps as Refining Margins More Than Double ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/phillips-66-profit-jumps-refining-021800484.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -7.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000153470126000006/psx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: $71B 

- FY2017: $90B 

- FY2018: $111B 

- FY2019: $107B 

- FY2020: $64B 

- FY2021: $112B 

- FY2022: $170B 

- FY2023: $147B 

- FY2024: $143B 

- FY2025: $132B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 4.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000153470126000006/psx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: 4.9% 

- FY2017: 4.6% 

- FY2018: 6.4% 

- FY2019: 4.9% 

- FY2020: 0.3% 

- FY2021: 3.0% 

- FY2022: 7.5% 

- FY2023: 7.7% 

- FY2024: 3.4% 

- FY2025: 4.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas refining & marketing; annual sales are USD 132.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000153470126000006/psx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: revenue 132189000000; grossProfit 6486000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PSX.US: Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels. The Midstream segment provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling, and storage services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) gathering, processing, transportation, fractionation, storage and marketing services. It also exports liquefied petroleum gas. The Chemicals segment produces and markets ethylene and other olefin products; aromatics and styrenics products, such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene; various specialty chemical products, including organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals used in drilling and mining; and petrochemicals and plastics. The Refining segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products, such as gasolines and distillates, including aviation fuels. The M&S segment purchases for resale and markets refined products, including gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels. This segment also manufactures and markets specialty products, such as automotive, commercial, industrial, and specialty lubricants, as well as base oils. The Renewable Fuels segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable products, as well as supplies sustainable aviation fuel. This segment also procures renewable feedstocks, manages certain regulatory credits, and markets renewable diesel, renewable jet fuel, and other renewable fuels. The company markets its products under the Phillips 66, Conoco and 76, JET, Kendall, Red Line, and other private label brands. Phillips 66 was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 3.4% to 7.7% during 2023–25; it earns 6.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 7.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 3.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000153470126000006/psx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 4.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0433580104227534],[2017,0.06991598972436298],[2018,0.1347171676428752],[2019,0.08129195268841308],[2020,-0.04628293058137299],[2021,0.03833609960298435],[2022,0.2006418143511648],[2023,0.14024810635168786],[2024,0.042809503642377164],[2025,0.059496898938560056]]; median 0.06470644433146153. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

The weighted-average NGL price was $0.64 per gallon during 2025, compared with $0.68 per gallon during 2024.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000153470126000006/psx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); Our NGL business contains both fee-based operations and operations directly impacted by NGL and natural gas prices. The weighted-average NGL price was $0.64 per gallon during 2025, compared with $0.68 per gallon during 2024. The Henry Hub natural gas price was $3.54 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during 2025, compared with $2.24 per MMBtu during 2024.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.2 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2017: growth capex 492000000; upkeep 1340000000; owner earnings 5106000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0963572267920094.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2018: growth capex 1260000000; upkeep 1379000000; owner earnings 5595000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.225201072386059.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 3873000000; owner earnings 567000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2021: growth capex 231000000; upkeep 1629000000; owner earnings 1315000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17566539923954372.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2022: growth capex 542000000; upkeep 1652000000; owner earnings 11024000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.049165457184325106.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2418000000; owner earnings 6592000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1859000000; owner earnings 2661000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000153470126000006/psx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2233000000; owner earnings 5421000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Dividend observations: [[2016,1282000000],[2017,1395000000],[2018,1436000000],[2019,1570000000],[2020,1575000000],[2021,1585000000],[2022,1793000000],[2023,1882000000],[2024,1882000000],[2025,1922000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000153470126000006/psx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: cash repurchases 1207000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PSX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.211 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Compliance with the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) could adversely affect our financial results." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000153470126000006/psx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); Compliance with the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) could adversely affect our financial results.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06868331725047294. Price 289.2; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.8007649316150405 → FY2025 13.285038953273228. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $81.15 per share

- 2016-11: $83.08 per share

- 2016-12: $86.41 per share

- 2017-01: $81.62 per share

- 2017-02: $78.19 per share

- 2017-03: $79.22 per share

- 2017-04: $79.56 per share

- 2017-05: $76.11 per share

- 2017-06: $82.69 per share

- 2017-07: $83.75 per share

- 2017-08: $83.81 per share

- 2017-09: $91.61 per share

- 2017-10: $91.08 per share

- 2017-11: $97.56 per share

- 2017-12: $101.15 per share

- 2018-01: $102.40 per share

- 2018-02: $90.37 per share

- 2018-03: $95.92 per share

- 2018-04: $111.31 per share

- 2018-05: $116.49 per share

- 2018-06: $112.31 per share

- 2018-07: $123.34 per share

- 2018-08: $118.51 per share

- 2018-09: $112.72 per share

- 2018-10: $102.82 per share

- 2018-11: $93.52 per share

- 2018-12: $86.15 per share

- 2019-01: $95.41 per share

- 2019-02: $96.36 per share

- 2019-03: $95.17 per share

- 2019-04: $94.27 per share

- 2019-05: $80.80 per share

- 2019-06: $93.54 per share

- 2019-07: $102.56 per share

- 2019-08: $98.63 per share

- 2019-09: $102.40 per share

- 2019-10: $116.82 per share

- 2019-11: $114.72 per share

- 2019-12: $111.41 per share

- 2020-01: $91.37 per share

- 2020-02: $74.86 per share

- 2020-03: $53.65 per share

- 2020-04: $73.17 per share

- 2020-05: $78.26 per share

- 2020-06: $71.90 per share

- 2020-07: $62.02 per share

- 2020-08: $58.47 per share

- 2020-09: $51.84 per share

- 2020-10: $46.66 per share

- 2020-11: $60.58 per share

- 2020-12: $69.94 per share

- 2021-01: $67.80 per share

- 2021-02: $83.05 per share

- 2021-03: $81.54 per share

- 2021-04: $80.91 per share

- 2021-05: $84.22 per share

- 2021-06: $85.82 per share

- 2021-07: $73.43 per share

- 2021-08: $71.09 per share

- 2021-09: $70.03 per share

- 2021-10: $74.78 per share

- 2021-11: $69.17 per share

- 2021-12: $72.46 per share

- 2022-01: $84.79 per share

- 2022-02: $84.24 per share

- 2022-03: $86.39 per share

- 2022-04: $86.76 per share

- 2022-05: $100.81 per share

- 2022-06: $81.99 per share

- 2022-07: $89.00 per share

- 2022-08: $89.46 per share

- 2022-09: $80.72 per share

- 2022-10: $104.29 per share

- 2022-11: $108.44 per share

- 2022-12: $104.08 per share

- 2023-01: $100.27 per share

- 2023-02: $102.56 per share

- 2023-03: $101.38 per share

- 2023-04: $99.00 per share

- 2023-05: $91.61 per share

- 2023-06: $95.38 per share

- 2023-07: $111.55 per share

- 2023-08: $114.16 per share

- 2023-09: $120.15 per share

- 2023-10: $114.07 per share

- 2023-11: $128.89 per share

- 2023-12: $133.14 per share

- 2024-01: $144.31 per share

- 2024-02: $142.51 per share

- 2024-03: $163.34 per share

- 2024-04: $143.21 per share

- 2024-05: $142.11 per share

- 2024-06: $141.17 per share

- 2024-07: $145.48 per share

- 2024-08: $140.31 per share

- 2024-09: $131.45 per share

- 2024-10: $121.82 per share

- 2024-11: $133.98 per share

- 2024-12: $113.93 per share

- 2025-01: $117.87 per share

- 2025-02: $129.69 per share

- 2025-03: $123.48 per share

- 2025-04: $104.06 per share

- 2025-05: $113.48 per share

- 2025-06: $119.30 per share

- 2025-07: $123.58 per share

- 2025-08: $133.58 per share

- 2025-09: $136.02 per share

- 2025-10: $136.14 per share

- 2025-11: $136.96 per share

- 2025-12: $129.04 per share

- 2026-01: $143.56 per share

- 2026-02: $154.33 per share

- 2026-03: $182.18 per share

- 2026-04: $179.15 per share

- 2026-05: $175.88 per share

- 2026-06: $169.05 per share

- 2026-07: $211.68 per share

- 2026-08: $246.58 per share

- 2026-09: $255.31 per share

- 2026-10: $292.73 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $22.68 per share, central $25.47 per share, high $29.19 per share

- FY2017: low $28.55 per share, central $32.13 per share, high $36.90 per share

- FY2018: low $36.99 per share, central $41.86 per share, high $48.35 per share

- FY2019: low $14.80 per share, central $18.32 per share, high $21.37 per share

- FY2020: low $10.85 per share, central $12.00 per share, high $13.53 per share

- FY2021: low $34.34 per share, central $38.84 per share, high $44.83 per share

- FY2022: low $55.91 per share, central $68.37 per share, high $78.86 per share

- FY2023: low $45.40 per share, central $55.19 per share, high $64.20 per share

- FY2024: low $69.61 per share, central $80.03 per share, high $92.99 per share

- FY2025: low $145.21 per share, central $165.23 per share, high $191.88 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534701/000153470126000006/psx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.