# PayPal Holdings (PYPL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PYPL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:24.484Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $57.16 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $30.95 per share, central $38.68 per share, high $51.58 per share. Buy at or below the central value $38.68 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:24.484Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.7% at the stated quote. About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.30×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.4B

- FY2017: $1.8B

- FY2018: $2.1B

- FY2019: $2.5B

- FY2020: $4.2B

- FY2021: $4.2B

- FY2022: $2.4B

- FY2023: $4.2B

- FY2024: $4.1B

- FY2025: $5.2B

### moat: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 36.0%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 15.6%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 13.4%

- FY2017: 15.6%

- FY2018: 24.9%

- FY2019: 24.9%

- FY2020: 42.7%

- FY2021: 46.6%

- FY2022: 29.2%

- FY2023: 44.8%

- FY2024: 44.8%

- FY2025: 57.0%

### economics: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 24.0%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $7.59

- Ending book value per share: $9.49

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.9%

- FY2017: 9.7%

- FY2018: -8.5%

- FY2019: 73.6%

- FY2020: 50.3%

- FY2021: 37.9%

- FY2022: 34.6%

- FY2023: 39.2%

- FY2024: 3.9%

- FY2025: 8.0%

### management: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.0%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -2.4%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -4.0%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book value created per share: $1.89

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: -$19.38

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Einhorn](https://gigainvestors.com/GLRE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Norbert Lou](https://gigainvestors.com/PC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 75% since Oct 2021 · "PayPal Earnings Seen Pressured by Lower Transaction Margins" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · net income +26.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:27.688Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price is 1.7 times annual sales

- 2025-07-29: PayPal Stock Drops as Profit, Branded Checkout Volumes Growth Come Up Short ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paypal-stock-drops-profit-branded-185226496.html))

- 2026-02-03: PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q4 CY2025 Earnings, Stock Drops 14.6% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paypal-nasdaq-pypl-reports-sales-122158225.html))

- 2026-04-02: PayPal (PYPL) Invests $400M to Revive Checkout Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/paypal-pypl-invests-400m-revive-134428590.html))

- 2026-05-06: PayPal Q1 2026 net income drops 14% amid cost-savings push ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/paypal-q1-2026-net-income-092740998.html))

- 2026-07-16: PayPal Stock Surges on $53 Billion Stripe-Advent Buyout Bid ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/paypal-stock-surges-53-billion-145000340.html))

- 2026-08-28: PayPal Stock Dives as Stripe’s Takeover Bid Collapses. 2 Reasons It Can Bounce Back. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/8b1d1c81-31f9-39ae-a407-677ff260c60e/paypal-stock-dives-as.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +26.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/pypl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-03.

- FY2016: $1.4B 

- FY2017: $1.8B 

- FY2018: $2.1B 

- FY2019: $2.5B 

- FY2020: $4.2B 

- FY2021: $4.2B 

- FY2022: $2.4B 

- FY2023: $4.2B 

- FY2024: $4.1B 

- FY2025: $5.2B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in credit services; annual sales are USD 33.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/pypl-20251231.htm#000163391726000024 (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: revenue 33172000000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PYPL.US: PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consumer credit and debit products, credit and debit cards, and cryptocurrencies, as well as other stored value products, including gift cards and eligible rewards. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

### Why customers stay

It earns 36% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.1341696992913235],[2017,0.15626360233307218],[2018,0.24851999516733117],[2019,0.24850934815563416],[2020,0.42720618137454247],[2021,0.46627893971591544],[2022,0.29225564818170835],[2023,0.4475126475548061],[2024,0.4481305381456667],[2025,0.5697952961672473]]; median 0.3597309147781254. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 7 of 10 years; bought back USD 6.1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,2075000000],[2019,4293000000],[2020,5019000000],[2021,4608000000],[2022,3475000000],[2023,1528000000],[2024,0],[2025,130000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/pypl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: cash repurchases 6052000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PYPL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.7060000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our credit products expose us to additional risks." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/pypl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); Our credit products expose us to additional risks.

### What the price says

The price is 1.7 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); Closing price 57.16 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 34.268595041322314; price multiple 1.667999517665501. FY2025 cash earnings/share 5.520661157024794. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $41.66 per share

- 2016-11: $39.28 per share

- 2016-12: $39.47 per share

- 2017-01: $39.78 per share

- 2017-02: $42.00 per share

- 2017-03: $43.02 per share

- 2017-04: $47.72 per share

- 2017-05: $52.21 per share

- 2017-06: $53.67 per share

- 2017-07: $58.55 per share

- 2017-08: $61.68 per share

- 2017-09: $64.03 per share

- 2017-10: $72.56 per share

- 2017-11: $75.73 per share

- 2017-12: $73.62 per share

- 2018-01: $85.32 per share

- 2018-02: $79.41 per share

- 2018-03: $75.87 per share

- 2018-04: $74.61 per share

- 2018-05: $82.07 per share

- 2018-06: $83.27 per share

- 2018-07: $82.14 per share

- 2018-08: $92.33 per share

- 2018-09: $87.84 per share

- 2018-10: $84.19 per share

- 2018-11: $85.81 per share

- 2018-12: $84.09 per share

- 2019-01: $88.76 per share

- 2019-02: $98.07 per share

- 2019-03: $103.84 per share

- 2019-04: $112.77 per share

- 2019-05: $109.75 per share

- 2019-06: $114.46 per share

- 2019-07: $110.40 per share

- 2019-08: $109.05 per share

- 2019-09: $103.59 per share

- 2019-10: $104.10 per share

- 2019-11: $108.01 per share

- 2019-12: $108.17 per share

- 2020-01: $113.89 per share

- 2020-02: $107.99 per share

- 2020-03: $95.74 per share

- 2020-04: $123.00 per share

- 2020-05: $155.01 per share

- 2020-06: $174.23 per share

- 2020-07: $196.07 per share

- 2020-08: $204.14 per share

- 2020-09: $197.03 per share

- 2020-10: $186.13 per share

- 2020-11: $214.12 per share

- 2020-12: $234.20 per share

- 2021-01: $234.31 per share

- 2021-02: $259.85 per share

- 2021-03: $242.84 per share

- 2021-04: $262.29 per share

- 2021-05: $260.02 per share

- 2021-06: $291.48 per share

- 2021-07: $275.53 per share

- 2021-08: $288.66 per share

- 2021-09: $260.21 per share

- 2021-10: $232.59 per share

- 2021-11: $184.89 per share

- 2021-12: $188.58 per share

- 2022-01: $171.94 per share

- 2022-02: $111.93 per share

- 2022-03: $115.65 per share

- 2022-04: $87.93 per share

- 2022-05: $85.21 per share

- 2022-06: $69.84 per share

- 2022-07: $86.53 per share

- 2022-08: $93.44 per share

- 2022-09: $86.07 per share

- 2022-10: $83.58 per share

- 2022-11: $78.41 per share

- 2022-12: $71.22 per share

- 2023-01: $81.49 per share

- 2023-02: $73.60 per share

- 2023-03: $75.94 per share

- 2023-04: $76.00 per share

- 2023-05: $61.99 per share

- 2023-06: $66.73 per share

- 2023-07: $75.82 per share

- 2023-08: $62.51 per share

- 2023-09: $58.46 per share

- 2023-10: $51.80 per share

- 2023-11: $57.61 per share

- 2023-12: $61.41 per share

- 2024-01: $61.35 per share

- 2024-02: $60.34 per share

- 2024-03: $66.99 per share

- 2024-04: $67.92 per share

- 2024-05: $62.99 per share

- 2024-06: $58.03 per share

- 2024-07: $65.78 per share

- 2024-08: $72.43 per share

- 2024-09: $78.03 per share

- 2024-10: $79.30 per share

- 2024-11: $86.77 per share

- 2024-12: $85.35 per share

- 2025-01: $88.58 per share

- 2025-02: $71.05 per share

- 2025-03: $65.25 per share

- 2025-04: $65.84 per share

- 2025-05: $70.28 per share

- 2025-06: $74.32 per share

- 2025-07: $68.76 per share

- 2025-08: $70.19 per share

- 2025-09: $67.06 per share

- 2025-10: $69.27 per share

- 2025-11: $62.69 per share

- 2025-12: $58.38 per share

- 2026-01: $52.69 per share

- 2026-02: $46.21 per share

- 2026-03: $45.23 per share

- 2026-04: $50.14 per share

- 2026-05: $44.75 per share

- 2026-06: $43.18 per share

- 2026-07: $57.21 per share

- 2026-08: $52.67 per share

- 2026-09: $52.53 per share

- 2026-10: $56.17 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $13.96 per share, central $17.44 per share, high $23.26 per share

- FY2018: low $11.73 per share, central $14.66 per share, high $19.54 per share

- FY2019: low $16.04 per share, central $20.04 per share, high $26.73 per share

- FY2020: low $23.06 per share, central $28.83 per share, high $38.44 per share

- FY2021: low $24.12 per share, central $30.16 per share, high $40.21 per share

- FY2022: low $22.87 per share, central $28.59 per share, high $38.12 per share

- FY2023: low $27.43 per share, central $34.28 per share, high $45.71 per share

- FY2024: low $28.50 per share, central $35.63 per share, high $47.50 per share

- FY2025: low $30.36 per share, central $37.95 per share, high $50.60 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/pypl-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-03.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.