# Qantas Airways (QAN.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/QAN.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 8.26 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 9.77 per share, central AUD 10.87 per share, high AUD 12.33 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 10.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.0% at the stated quote. About 13.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 8.50×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: -0.05×

- FY2021: -0.35×

- FY2022: -0.21×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.32×

- FY2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 14.4pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -24.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 14.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 12.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 11.6%

- FY2018: 12.0%

- FY2019: 8.1%

- FY2020: -8.5%

- FY2021: -24.0%

- FY2022: -42.1%

- FY2023: 58.5%

- FY2024: 31.3%

- FY2025: 87.7%

- FY2026: 16.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.77×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 3.9B

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 5.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 20.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -6.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.24×

- FY2023: 0.82×

- FY2024: 0.75×

- FY2025: 0.81×

- FY2026: 0.31×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.6% vs 31.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.55 to 0.84 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.0%

- Market cap gain: AUD 6.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 41M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 5.5%

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.29

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.55

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.84

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.73

- Average buyback yield: 5.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: AUD 683M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 4.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 31.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 0.48

- FY2018: AUD 0.59

- FY2019: AUD 0.58

- FY2020: AUD -1.04

- FY2021: AUD -0.90

- FY2022: AUD -0.45

- FY2023: AUD 1.03

- FY2024: AUD 0.81

- FY2025: AUD 1.05

- FY2026: AUD 0.84

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.93×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.38×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -10.8%

- FY2018: -13.0%

- FY2019: -11.1%

- FY2020: -15.2%

- FY2021: -7.2%

- FY2022: -18.0%

- FY2023: -16.3%

- FY2024: -10.2%

- FY2025: -11.3%

- FY2026: -9.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 30% since Aug 2025 · "Qantas says profits slump as fuel costs surge" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +5.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.074Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-27: Australia's Qantas says appetite for travel boosts profit, shares surge ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/qantas-annual-profit-beats-estimates-231029550.html))

- 2026-08-27: Qantas says profits slump as fuel costs surge ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/qantas-says-profits-slump-fuel-020447085.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 16B 

- FY2018: AUD 17B 

- FY2019: AUD 18B 

- FY2020: AUD 14B 

- FY2021: AUD 5.4B 

- FY2022: AUD 8.7B 

- FY2023: AUD 20B 

- FY2024: AUD 22B 

- FY2025: AUD 24B 

- FY2026: AUD 25B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 19.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 58.7% 

- FY2018: 33.7% 

- FY2019: 33.1% 

- FY2020: 29.3% 

- FY2022: 52.0% 

- FY2023: 56.2% 

- FY2024: 53.0% 

- FY2025: 33.4% 

- FY2026: 19.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in airlines; annual sales are AUD 25.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2026: revenue 25189000000; grossProfit 4813000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); QAN.AU: Qantas Airways Limited provides air transportation services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, Jetstar Group, and Qantas Loyalty segments. It offers passengers and air freight services; and customer loyalty recognition programs. The company also provides freight services; and operates frequent flyer loyalty program. It operates under the Qantas and Jetstar brands. Qantas Airways Limited was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Mascot, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.1% to 53% during 2024–26; it earns 11.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 53%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 19.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.11648046464876845],[2018,0.12036587785708133],[2019,0.08118899022418281],[2020,-0.08524466750313676],[2021,-0.24019420566698504],[2022,-0.42108708357685565],[2023,0.5847217322811816],[2024,0.31315133268323275],[2025,0.877089373922984],[2026,0.16094253903604538]]; median 0.1184231712529249. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 20.9% on new investment; paid dividends in 8 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1413000000; owner earnings 830000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2018: growth capex 471000000; upkeep 1532000000; owner earnings 980000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4806122448979592.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2019: growth capex 321000000; upkeep 1665000000; owner earnings 642800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.499377722464219.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2023: growth capex 774000000; upkeep 1789000000; owner earnings 1434600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5395232120451694.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2024: growth capex 886000000; upkeep 1787000000; owner earnings 943800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9387582114854842.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2025: growth capex 1885000000; upkeep 2033000000; owner earnings 1293800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.4569485237285515.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2026: growth capex 1132000833.222115; upkeep 2839999166.777885; owner earnings 396800833.22211504. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.8528186899962003.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); Incremental return on capital 0.20864150785817484, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,264000000],[2018,249000000],[2019,363000000],[2020,204000000],[2021,1000000],[2022,1000000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,400000000],[2026,700000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 87000000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); QAN.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.395 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:12.923Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.06038522858630535. Price 8.26; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.43033903553345865 → FY2026 0.2582901379929838. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 3.06 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 3.30 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 3.33 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 3.41 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 3.75 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 3.89 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 4.24 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 5.01 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 5.72 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 5.32 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 5.72 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 5.83 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 6.15 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 5.67 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 5.04 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 5.27 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 5.89 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 5.83 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 5.77 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 6.35 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 6.16 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 6.72 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 6.43 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 5.90 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 5.47 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 5.96 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 5.79 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 5.44 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 5.73 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 5.66 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 5.61 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 5.55 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 5.40 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 5.71 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 6.11 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 6.29 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 6.41 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 7.30 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 7.11 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 6.41 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 5.53 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 3.23 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 3.86 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 3.99 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 3.78 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 3.23 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 3.94 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 4.05 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 4.19 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 5.38 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 4.85 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 4.50 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 5.00 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 5.09 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 4.95 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 4.71 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 4.66 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 4.59 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 5.09 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 5.67 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 5.35 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 5.06 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 5.01 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 4.78 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 5.07 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 5.21 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 5.60 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 5.51 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 4.47 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 4.56 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 5.32 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 5.02 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 5.84 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 6.24 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 6.01 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 6.34 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 6.42 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 6.62 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 6.60 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 6.65 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 6.20 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 6.53 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 5.91 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 5.18 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 4.91 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 5.30 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 5.37 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 5.56 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 5.13 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 5.45 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 5.90 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 6.15 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 5.85 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 6.46 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 6.71 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 7.42 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 8.08 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 8.77 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 8.97 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 9.42 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 9.52 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 9.05 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 8.85 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 10.61 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 10.74 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 10.87 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 11.75 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 10.92 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 10.20 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 9.98 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 10.38 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 10.07 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 9.95 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 8.37 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 8.41 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 9.44 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 10.62 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 9.95 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 9.42 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 9.14 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 8.30 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 4.31 per share, central AUD 4.85 per share, high AUD 5.50 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 6.69 per share, central AUD 7.76 per share, high AUD 8.90 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 8.62 per share, central AUD 11.13 per share, high AUD 12.84 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 5.93 per share, central AUD 6.50 per share, high AUD 7.28 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 2.26 per share, central AUD 2.42 per share, high AUD 2.63 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 10.28 per share, central AUD 13.98 per share, high AUD 16.21 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 9.63 per share, central AUD 10.71 per share, high AUD 12.14 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:56.198Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.