# Qualcomm (QCOM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/QCOM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:24.885Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $178.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $128.48 per share, central $145.23 per share, high $167.54 per share. Buy at or below the central value $145.23 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:24.885Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.6% at the stated quote. About 8.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.39×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.28×

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.32×

- FY2020: 0.27×

- FY2021: 0.29×

- FY2022: 0.36×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.26×

- FY2025: 0.28×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 57.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 24.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 56.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 55.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 32.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 28.2%

- FY2017: 24.2%

- FY2018: 2.3%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: 79.5%

- FY2023: 49.0%

- FY2024: 55.9%

- FY2025: 58.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $46B

- Net income, five-year total: $45B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 87.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 8.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.05×

- FY2024: 1.07×

- FY2025: 1.07×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 24.2% vs 55.9%

- Per-share earnings: 3.22 to 6.42 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Market cap gain: $102B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$9.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 9.0%

- Per-share value change: $3.21

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.22

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.42

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.08

- Average buyback yield: 5.1%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $6.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $58B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 24.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 55.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.81

- FY2017: $1.66

- FY2018: -$3.39

- FY2019: $3.60

- FY2020: $4.52

- FY2021: $7.87

- FY2022: $11.38

- FY2023: $6.42

- FY2024: $8.98

- FY2025: $5.01

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -16.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.97×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 19.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.53×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.59×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.2%

- FY2017: -3.4%

- FY2018: -27.1%

- FY2019: -8.8%

- FY2020: -1.7%

- FY2021: -3.6%

- FY2022: 7.8%

- FY2023: -8.0%

- FY2024: -3.7%

- FY2025: -16.9%

## Holders

- [David Tepper](https://gigainvestors.com/AM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 29% since May 2026 · "Qualcomm Faces Margin Pressure From Rising Costs: Can it Recover?" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +13.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:27.759Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.6% a year for ten years

- 2026-01-15: Qualcomm Facing Smartphone Growth Pressure, Limited Data Center Progress, RBC Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/qualcomm-facing-smartphone-growth-pressure-160518841.html))

- 2026-04-30: Qualcomm Surpasses Q2 Earnings Estimates on Solid Auto, IoT Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/qualcomm-surpasses-q2-earnings-estimates-133100982.html))

- 2026-05-26: Qualcomm strikes AI chip deal with TikTok owner ByteDance, Bloomberg News reports ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/qualcomm-strikes-ai-chip-deal-145541849.html))

- 2026-06-03: Qualcomm Plagued by Margin Woes, Demand Softness: Time to Rethink? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/qualcomm-plagued-margin-woes-demand-153300564.html))

- 2026-07-30: Qualcomm shares slide as higher costs, Apple-related weakness cloud profit forecast ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/qualcomm-shares-slide-higher-costs-110415585.html))

- 2026-08-20: QCOM Falls 30.6% in 3 Months as Handset Risks Challenge Auto Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/qcom-falls-30-6-3-143500229.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +13.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/qcom-20250928.htm; observed 2025-11-05.

- FY2016: $24B 

- FY2017: $22B 

- FY2018: $23B 

- FY2019: $24B 

- FY2020: $24B 

- FY2021: $34B 

- FY2022: $44B 

- FY2023: $36B 

- FY2024: $39B 

- FY2025: $44B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 55.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/qcom-20250928.htm; observed 2025-11-05.

- FY2016: 58.6% 

- FY2017: 56.1% 

- FY2018: 54.9% 

- FY2019: 64.6% 

- FY2020: 60.7% 

- FY2021: 57.5% 

- FY2022: 57.8% 

- FY2023: 55.7% 

- FY2024: 56.2% 

- FY2025: 55.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductors; annual sales are USD 44.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/qcom-20250928.htm (filed 2025-11-05); FY2025: revenue 44284000000; grossProfit 24546000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); QCOM.US: QUALCOMM Incorporated engages in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry worldwide. It operates through three segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT); Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL); and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI). The QCT segment develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software with connectivity and computing technologies for use in mobile devices; automotive systems for connectivity, digital cockpit, and ADAS/AD; and IoT, including consumer electronic devices, industrial devices, and edge networking products. The QTL segment grants licenses or provides rights to use portions of its intellectual property portfolio, which include various patent rights useful in the manufacture and sale of wireless products comprising products implementing LTE, and/or OFDMA-based 5G products and derivatives; to use cellular standard-essential patents, including 3G, 4G and 5G for cellular devices. The QSI segment invests in early-stage companies in various industries, including 5G, artificial intelligence, automotive, consumer, enterprise, cloud, IoT, and extended reality, and investments, including non-marketable equity securities and, to a lesser extent, marketable equity securities, and convertible debt instruments. It also provides development, and other services and sells related products to the United States government agencies and their contractors. In addition, the company is also involved in Qualcomm government technologies and data center businesses. Further, it provides security and intelligence services for unmanaged networks through software-based network security solutions. The company is in collaboration with Amazon to enable customized silicon at scale for large-scale AI data centers. QUALCOMM Incorporated was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 55.4% to 56.2% during 2023–25; it earns 57.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 55.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 56.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/qcom-20250928.htm (filed 2025-11-05); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 55.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.28217127504254075],[2017,0.24192433995382187],[2018,0.023499446934854746],[2019,2.166760869565217],[2020,1.3326700619668097],[2021,1.307650819806242],[2022,0.7946048864841895],[2023,0.48968112250733425],[2024,0.559227607785723],[2025,0.5843520337626428]]; median 0.5717898207741829. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 8.8 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 539000000; owner earnings 6594000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 690000000; owner earnings 3237000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 887000000; owner earnings 4900000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1407000000; owner earnings 5184000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); FY2021: growth capex 306000000; upkeep 1582000000; owner earnings 9043000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.033838327988499395.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); FY2022: growth capex 500000000; upkeep 1762000000; owner earnings 12936000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03865182436611008.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1450000000; owner earnings 7591000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1041000000; owner earnings 10807000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/qcom-20250928.htm (filed 2025-11-05); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1192000000; owner earnings 5951000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); Dividend observations: [[2016,2990000000],[2017,3252000000],[2018,3466000000],[2019,2968000000],[2020,2882000000],[2021,3008000000],[2022,3212000000],[2023,3462000000],[2024,3687000000],[2025,3805000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/qcom-20250928.htm (filed 2025-11-05); FY2025: cash repurchases 8791000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); QCOM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.122 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Failures in our products, or in the products of our customers or licensees" (SEC filing, Nov 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/qcom-20250928.htm (filed 2025-11-05); Failures in our products, or in the products of our customers or licensees

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-05); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03839865206233484. Price 178.4; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.3502135448444172 → FY2025 5.385520361990951. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $68.72 per share

- 2016-11: $68.13 per share

- 2016-12: $65.20 per share

- 2017-01: $53.43 per share

- 2017-02: $56.48 per share

- 2017-03: $57.34 per share

- 2017-04: $53.74 per share

- 2017-05: $57.27 per share

- 2017-06: $55.22 per share

- 2017-07: $53.19 per share

- 2017-08: $52.27 per share

- 2017-09: $51.84 per share

- 2017-10: $51.01 per share

- 2017-11: $66.34 per share

- 2017-12: $64.02 per share

- 2018-01: $68.25 per share

- 2018-02: $65.00 per share

- 2018-03: $55.41 per share

- 2018-04: $51.01 per share

- 2018-05: $58.12 per share

- 2018-06: $56.12 per share

- 2018-07: $64.09 per share

- 2018-08: $68.71 per share

- 2018-09: $72.03 per share

- 2018-10: $62.89 per share

- 2018-11: $58.26 per share

- 2018-12: $56.91 per share

- 2019-01: $49.52 per share

- 2019-02: $53.39 per share

- 2019-03: $57.03 per share

- 2019-04: $86.13 per share

- 2019-05: $66.82 per share

- 2019-06: $76.07 per share

- 2019-07: $73.16 per share

- 2019-08: $77.77 per share

- 2019-09: $76.28 per share

- 2019-10: $80.44 per share

- 2019-11: $83.55 per share

- 2019-12: $88.23 per share

- 2020-01: $85.31 per share

- 2020-02: $78.30 per share

- 2020-03: $67.65 per share

- 2020-04: $78.67 per share

- 2020-05: $80.88 per share

- 2020-06: $91.21 per share

- 2020-07: $105.61 per share

- 2020-08: $119.10 per share

- 2020-09: $117.68 per share

- 2020-10: $123.36 per share

- 2020-11: $147.17 per share

- 2020-12: $152.34 per share

- 2021-01: $156.28 per share

- 2021-02: $136.19 per share

- 2021-03: $132.59 per share

- 2021-04: $138.80 per share

- 2021-05: $134.54 per share

- 2021-06: $142.93 per share

- 2021-07: $149.80 per share

- 2021-08: $146.69 per share

- 2021-09: $128.98 per share

- 2021-10: $133.04 per share

- 2021-11: $180.56 per share

- 2021-12: $182.87 per share

- 2022-01: $175.76 per share

- 2022-02: $171.99 per share

- 2022-03: $152.82 per share

- 2022-04: $139.69 per share

- 2022-05: $143.22 per share

- 2022-06: $127.74 per share

- 2022-07: $145.06 per share

- 2022-08: $132.27 per share

- 2022-09: $112.98 per share

- 2022-10: $117.66 per share

- 2022-11: $126.49 per share

- 2022-12: $109.94 per share

- 2023-01: $133.21 per share

- 2023-02: $123.53 per share

- 2023-03: $127.58 per share

- 2023-04: $116.80 per share

- 2023-05: $113.41 per share

- 2023-06: $119.04 per share

- 2023-07: $132.17 per share

- 2023-08: $114.53 per share

- 2023-09: $111.06 per share

- 2023-10: $108.99 per share

- 2023-11: $129.05 per share

- 2023-12: $144.63 per share

- 2024-01: $148.51 per share

- 2024-02: $157.79 per share

- 2024-03: $169.30 per share

- 2024-04: $165.85 per share

- 2024-05: $204.05 per share

- 2024-06: $199.18 per share

- 2024-07: $180.95 per share

- 2024-08: $175.30 per share

- 2024-09: $170.05 per share

- 2024-10: $162.77 per share

- 2024-11: $158.53 per share

- 2024-12: $153.62 per share

- 2025-01: $172.93 per share

- 2025-02: $157.17 per share

- 2025-03: $153.61 per share

- 2025-04: $148.46 per share

- 2025-05: $145.20 per share

- 2025-06: $159.26 per share

- 2025-07: $146.76 per share

- 2025-08: $160.73 per share

- 2025-09: $166.36 per share

- 2025-10: $180.90 per share

- 2025-11: $168.09 per share

- 2025-12: $171.05 per share

- 2026-01: $151.59 per share

- 2026-02: $142.36 per share

- 2026-03: $128.78 per share

- 2026-04: $179.58 per share

- 2026-05: $251.02 per share

- 2026-06: $184.79 per share

- 2026-07: $147.61 per share

- 2026-08: $170.48 per share

- 2026-09: $184.04 per share

- 2026-10: $176.86 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $60.25 per share, central $66.88 per share, high $75.71 per share

- FY2017: low $69.81 per share, central $76.02 per share, high $84.29 per share

- FY2018: low $44.84 per share, central $49.93 per share, high $56.70 per share

- FY2019: low $53.55 per share, central $59.60 per share, high $67.66 per share

- FY2020: low $63.83 per share, central $84.71 per share, high $97.74 per share

- FY2021: low $90.39 per share, central $124.75 per share, high $144.76 per share

- FY2022: low $121.27 per share, central $171.16 per share, high $200.21 per share

- FY2023: low $91.98 per share, central $111.06 per share, high $127.96 per share

- FY2024: low $128.53 per share, central $166.76 per share, high $193.31 per share

- FY2025: low $145.25 per share, central $186.73 per share, high $216.65 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/qcom-20250928.htm); period 2025-09-28, filed 2025-11-05.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.