# Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/RCL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:28.971Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $280.01 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $109.51 per share, central $144.26 per share, high $168.53 per share. Buy at or below the central value $144.26 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:28.971Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 3.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.19×

- FY2020: -2.08×

- FY2021: -2.53×

- FY2022: -0.09×

- FY2023: 0.21×

- FY2024: 0.25×

- FY2025: 0.27×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.27×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -13.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 44.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 46.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 29.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.4%

- FY2017: 8.0%

- FY2018: 8.1%

- FY2019: 7.3%

- FY2020: -15.0%

- FY2021: -13.1%

- FY2022: -2.5%

- FY2023: 11.2%

- FY2024: 15.1%

- FY2025: 15.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.35×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $494M

- Net income, five-year total: $1.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 27.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -1.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.18×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.0% vs 15.1%

- Per-share earnings: 5.93 to 10.31 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.0%

- Market cap gain: $59B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.2%

- Per-share value change: $4.38

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.93

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $10.31

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.93

- FY2017: $7.53

- FY2018: $8.56

- FY2019: $8.95

- FY2020: -$27.05

- FY2021: -$20.87

- FY2022: -$8.45

- FY2023: $6.00

- FY2024: $10.31

- FY2025: $15.59

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.79×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.51×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.12×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.5%

- FY2017: -5.6%

- FY2018: -6.0%

- FY2019: -6.1%

- FY2020: -6.4%

- FY2021: -10.5%

- FY2022: -7.8%

- FY2023: -7.9%

- FY2024: -6.4%

- FY2025: -5.3%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 23% since Aug 2025 · "Management said geopolitical disruption is limiting Mediterranean yield upside." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +4.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:28.787Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-29: Royal Caribbean raises annual profit target on strong demand, lower fuel costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/royal-caribbean-raises-annual-profit-103845463.html))

- 2025-11-03: Royal Caribbean (RCL): Valuation Insights After Earnings Highlight Demand Uncertainty and Guidance Miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/royal-caribbean-rcl-valuation-insights-151527736.html))

- 2026-01-29: Royal Caribbean shares surge on strong 2026 guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/royal-caribbean-shares-rally-strong-121320393.html))

- 2026-03-07: Royal Caribbean (RCL) Is Down 10.6% After Softer 2026 Outlook and Rising Geopolitical Risks ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/royal-caribbean-rcl-down-10-060839491.html))

- 2026-06-19: Can Royal Caribbean Protect 2026 Earnings From a 62-Cent Fuel Hit? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/royal-caribbean-protect-2026-earnings-141800294.html))

- 2026-10-09: Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) Could Be 20% Undervalued As Sandals Deal Lifts Interest ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/royal-caribbean-cruises-rcl-could-201219856.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000088488726000007/rcl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2017: $8.8B 

- FY2018: $9.5B 

- FY2019: $11B 

- FY2020: $2.2B 

- FY2021: $1.5B 

- FY2022: $8.8B 

- FY2023: $14B 

- FY2024: $16B 

- FY2025: $18B 

- FY2026: $19B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 46.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000088488726000007/rcl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: 41.0% 

- FY2017: 44.2% 

- FY2018: 44.6% 

- FY2019: 44.6% 

- FY2022: 25.2% 

- FY2023: 44.1% 

- FY2024: 47.5% 

- FY2025: 46.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in travel services; annual sales are USD 17.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000088488726000007/rcl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 17935000000; grossProfit 8400000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 44.1% to 47.5% during 2023–25; it earns 7.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 44.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 47.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000088488726000007/rcl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 46.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06437762218342852],[2017,0.08006435964067395],[2018,0.08057875517308102],[2019,0.07329386145979636],[2020,-0.14983032861131818],[2021,-0.13139284104345678],[2022,-0.025089763257183133],[2023,0.1122540393448841],[2024,0.1510280648839519],[2025,0.15819077403578216]]; median 0.07667911055023516. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 82.2% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 27.5% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2016: growth capex 448312077.7470114; upkeep 2046050922.2529886; owner earnings 132252077.74701142. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.389830128828673.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 564138000; owner earnings 2012189000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 1662416674.1965463; upkeep 1997611325.8034537; owner earnings 847127674.1965463. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.9624157312216914.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 1778721000; upkeep 1245942000; owner earnings 1878887000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9466886513132509.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 2442000000; upkeep 1455000000; owner earnings 1697000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.4390100176782556.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 1668000000; upkeep 1600000000; owner earnings 2877000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5797705943691345.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000088488726000007/rcl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 3511000000; upkeep 1718000000; owner earnings 4273000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8216709571729464.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Incremental return on capital 0.2747667943331532, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,346487000],[2017,437455000],[2018,527494000],[2019,602674000],[2020,326421000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,107000000],[2025,264000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000088488726000007/rcl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 1159000000 USD.

### What could break it

"Our reliance on shipyards, their subcontractors" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000088488726000007/rcl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); Our reliance on shipyards, their subcontractors

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 24.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17560002586430812. Price 280.01; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.7465775865348019 → FY2025 15.594890510948906. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $76.87 per share

- 2016-11: $80.97 per share

- 2016-12: $82.04 per share

- 2017-01: $93.63 per share

- 2017-02: $96.10 per share

- 2017-03: $98.11 per share

- 2017-04: $106.60 per share

- 2017-05: $110.18 per share

- 2017-06: $109.23 per share

- 2017-07: $113.07 per share

- 2017-08: $124.46 per share

- 2017-09: $118.54 per share

- 2017-10: $123.77 per share

- 2017-11: $123.88 per share

- 2017-12: $119.28 per share

- 2018-01: $133.55 per share

- 2018-02: $126.60 per share

- 2018-03: $117.74 per share

- 2018-04: $108.19 per share

- 2018-05: $104.98 per share

- 2018-06: $103.60 per share

- 2018-07: $112.76 per share

- 2018-08: $122.58 per share

- 2018-09: $129.94 per share

- 2018-10: $104.73 per share

- 2018-11: $113.07 per share

- 2018-12: $97.79 per share

- 2019-01: $120.05 per share

- 2019-02: $118.48 per share

- 2019-03: $114.62 per share

- 2019-04: $120.94 per share

- 2019-05: $121.76 per share

- 2019-06: $121.21 per share

- 2019-07: $116.34 per share

- 2019-08: $104.28 per share

- 2019-09: $108.33 per share

- 2019-10: $108.83 per share

- 2019-11: $120.02 per share

- 2019-12: $133.51 per share

- 2020-01: $117.08 per share

- 2020-02: $80.41 per share

- 2020-03: $32.17 per share

- 2020-04: $46.77 per share

- 2020-05: $51.87 per share

- 2020-06: $50.30 per share

- 2020-07: $48.71 per share

- 2020-08: $68.84 per share

- 2020-09: $64.73 per share

- 2020-10: $56.42 per share

- 2020-11: $78.81 per share

- 2020-12: $74.69 per share

- 2021-01: $65.00 per share

- 2021-02: $93.27 per share

- 2021-03: $85.61 per share

- 2021-04: $86.95 per share

- 2021-05: $93.27 per share

- 2021-06: $85.28 per share

- 2021-07: $76.87 per share

- 2021-08: $82.73 per share

- 2021-09: $88.95 per share

- 2021-10: $84.43 per share

- 2021-11: $69.82 per share

- 2021-12: $76.90 per share

- 2022-01: $77.81 per share

- 2022-02: $80.72 per share

- 2022-03: $83.78 per share

- 2022-04: $77.73 per share

- 2022-05: $58.07 per share

- 2022-06: $34.91 per share

- 2022-07: $38.71 per share

- 2022-08: $40.85 per share

- 2022-09: $37.90 per share

- 2022-10: $53.38 per share

- 2022-11: $59.93 per share

- 2022-12: $49.43 per share

- 2023-01: $64.94 per share

- 2023-02: $70.64 per share

- 2023-03: $65.30 per share

- 2023-04: $65.43 per share

- 2023-05: $80.97 per share

- 2023-06: $103.74 per share

- 2023-07: $109.11 per share

- 2023-08: $98.94 per share

- 2023-09: $92.14 per share

- 2023-10: $84.73 per share

- 2023-11: $107.46 per share

- 2023-12: $129.49 per share

- 2024-01: $127.50 per share

- 2024-02: $123.35 per share

- 2024-03: $139.01 per share

- 2024-04: $139.63 per share

- 2024-05: $147.68 per share

- 2024-06: $159.43 per share

- 2024-07: $156.72 per share

- 2024-08: $164.62 per share

- 2024-09: $177.36 per share

- 2024-10: $206.35 per share

- 2024-11: $244.06 per share

- 2024-12: $230.69 per share

- 2025-01: $266.60 per share

- 2025-02: $246.10 per share

- 2025-03: $205.44 per share

- 2025-04: $214.91 per share

- 2025-05: $256.97 per share

- 2025-06: $313.14 per share

- 2025-07: $317.87 per share

- 2025-08: $363.22 per share

- 2025-09: $323.58 per share

- 2025-10: $286.83 per share

- 2025-11: $266.25 per share

- 2025-12: $278.92 per share

- 2026-01: $324.65 per share

- 2026-02: $310.96 per share

- 2026-03: $275.18 per share

- 2026-04: $263.76 per share

- 2026-05: $284.63 per share

- 2026-06: $317.53 per share

- 2026-07: $318.30 per share

- 2026-08: $268.74 per share

- 2026-09: $265.86 per share

- 2026-10: $281.51 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $6.68 per share, central $7.60 per share, high $8.83 per share

- FY2017: low $22.72 per share, central $28.57 per share, high $33.35 per share

- FY2018: low $25.42 per share, central $31.71 per share, high $36.93 per share

- FY2019: low $59.60 per share, central $79.84 per share, high $93.49 per share

- FY2020: low $27.03 per share, central $28.42 per share, high $30.27 per share

- FY2021: low $16.53 per share, central $17.35 per share, high $18.43 per share

- FY2025: low $102.98 per share, central $135.55 per share, high $158.29 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:37:13.947Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000088488726000007/rcl-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.