# TheRealReal (REAL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/REAL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:29.944Z. Financial observations: FY2018–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $10.54 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 9

- Operating margin variation: 0.66×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -0.36×

- FY2019: -0.32×

- FY2020: -0.58×

- FY2021: -0.46×

- FY2022: -0.31×

- FY2023: -0.30×

- FY2024: -0.09×

- FY2025: -0.03×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.01×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -108.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -118.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 64.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 69.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 3

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -135.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.0%

- FY2019: -115.6%

- FY2020: -118.0%

- FY2021: -103.1%

- FY2022: -113.3%

- FY2023: -133.6%

- FY2024: -32.1%

- FY2025: -39.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$748M

- Net income, five-year total: -$777M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 77.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$236M

- FY2022: -$192M

- FY2023: -$166M

- FY2024: -$127M

- FY2025: -$27M

### management: fail

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -115.6% vs -39.6%

- Per-share earnings: -2.01 to -1.24 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.9%

- Per-share value change: $0.76

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$2.01

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$1.24

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.60

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: -115.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -39.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -$0.89

- FY2019: -$2.07

- FY2020: -$2.01

- FY2021: -$2.58

- FY2022: -$2.05

- FY2023: -$1.65

- FY2024: -$1.24

- FY2025: -$0.36

### accounting: fail

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -19.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.48×

- Restructuring years, last five: 4

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 78.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 3

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -21.1%

- FY2019: -9.4%

- FY2020: -6.8%

- FY2021: -12.4%

- FY2022: -17.0%

- FY2023: -24.0%

- FY2024: -36.8%

- FY2025: -19.3%

## Holders

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 33% since Dec 2025 · "The RealReal (REAL) Posts Record Sales, But The Losses Keep Growing" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +8.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:29.064Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +8.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1573221/000157322126000010/real-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2018: $207M 

- FY2019: $316M 

- FY2020: $300M 

- FY2021: $468M 

- FY2022: $603M 

- FY2023: $549M 

- FY2024: $600M 

- FY2025: $693M 

- FY2026: $750M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 69.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1573221/000157322126000010/real-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2018: 66.0% 

- FY2019: 63.7% 

- FY2020: 62.5% 

- FY2021: 58.5% 

- FY2022: 57.8% 

- FY2023: 68.5% 

- FY2024: 74.5% 

- FY2025: 69.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in luxury goods; annual sales are USD 692.8 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1573221/000157322126000010/real-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 692845000; grossProfit 483818000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 68.5% to 74.5% during 2023–25.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 68.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 74.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1573221/000157322126000010/real-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 69.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 8-year return on capital observations [[2018,0],[2019,-1.1561665765120392],[2020,-1.1799780468621706],[2021,-1.03052109572744],[2022,-1.133339678591201],[2023,-1.335578113721623],[2024,-0.3206737366987836],[2025,-0.39611715165608696]]; median -1.0819303871593204. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 3 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2018,0],[2019,130000],[2020,165530000],[2021,278229000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 7.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); REAL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 7.231 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price is 1.8 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Closing price 10.54 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 5.946541336227564; price multiple 1.7724588805577004. FY2025 cash earnings/share -0.23550310347155298. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2019-06: $28.90 per share

- 2019-07: $24.55 per share

- 2019-08: $13.07 per share

- 2019-09: $22.36 per share

- 2019-10: $23.11 per share

- 2019-11: $17.20 per share

- 2019-12: $18.85 per share

- 2020-01: $14.47 per share

- 2020-02: $13.99 per share

- 2020-03: $7.01 per share

- 2020-04: $11.74 per share

- 2020-05: $13.41 per share

- 2020-06: $12.79 per share

- 2020-07: $13.64 per share

- 2020-08: $16.06 per share

- 2020-09: $14.47 per share

- 2020-10: $12.59 per share

- 2020-11: $13.85 per share

- 2020-12: $19.54 per share

- 2021-01: $23.68 per share

- 2021-02: $25.54 per share

- 2021-03: $22.63 per share

- 2021-04: $24.77 per share

- 2021-05: $17.47 per share

- 2021-06: $19.76 per share

- 2021-07: $16.51 per share

- 2021-08: $12.44 per share

- 2021-09: $13.18 per share

- 2021-10: $13.03 per share

- 2021-11: $15.57 per share

- 2021-12: $11.61 per share

- 2022-01: $9.45 per share

- 2022-02: $8.91 per share

- 2022-03: $7.26 per share

- 2022-04: $5.42 per share

- 2022-05: $3.28 per share

- 2022-06: $2.49 per share

- 2022-07: $2.33 per share

- 2022-08: $2.14 per share

- 2022-09: $1.50 per share

- 2022-10: $1.69 per share

- 2022-11: $1.49 per share

- 2022-12: $1.25 per share

- 2023-01: $1.83 per share

- 2023-02: $1.35 per share

- 2023-03: $1.26 per share

- 2023-04: $1.12 per share

- 2023-05: $1.28 per share

- 2023-06: $2.22 per share

- 2023-07: $2.74 per share

- 2023-08: $2.63 per share

- 2023-09: $2.11 per share

- 2023-10: $1.37 per share

- 2023-11: $2.26 per share

- 2023-12: $2.01 per share

- 2024-01: $1.92 per share

- 2024-02: $1.77 per share

- 2024-03: $3.91 per share

- 2024-04: $3.82 per share

- 2024-05: $4.31 per share

- 2024-06: $3.19 per share

- 2024-07: $3.74 per share

- 2024-08: $2.64 per share

- 2024-09: $3.14 per share

- 2024-10: $2.90 per share

- 2024-11: $5.88 per share

- 2024-12: $10.93 per share

- 2025-01: $9.54 per share

- 2025-02: $6.82 per share

- 2025-03: $5.39 per share

- 2025-04: $5.80 per share

- 2025-05: $5.65 per share

- 2025-06: $4.79 per share

- 2025-07: $5.26 per share

- 2025-08: $7.63 per share

- 2025-09: $10.63 per share

- 2025-10: $12.21 per share

- 2025-11: $14.48 per share

- 2025-12: $15.78 per share

- 2026-01: $14.67 per share

- 2026-02: $12.26 per share

- 2026-03: $9.08 per share

- 2026-04: $11.89 per share

- 2026-05: $9.64 per share

- 2026-06: $11.79 per share

- 2026-07: $12.09 per share

- 2026-08: $10.24 per share

- 2026-09: $8.84 per share

- 2026-10: $10.54 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1573221/000157322126000010/real-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.