# Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/REYN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:32.012Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $22.66 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $16.62 per share, central $18.91 per share, high $21.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value $18.91 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:32.012Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.8% at the stated quote. About 8.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.18×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: 0.18×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.13×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.14×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 20.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 14.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 25.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 25.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 19.5%

- FY2018: 12.7%

- FY2019: 26.0%

- FY2020: 24.0%

- FY2021: 19.1%

- FY2022: 14.9%

- FY2023: 27.2%

- FY2024: 22.5%

- FY2025: 19.1%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 20.6%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.6B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 11.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 16.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.07×

- FY2024: 1.03×

- FY2025: 0.93×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.90×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 1.13 to 1.43 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Per-share value growth: 3.4%

- Per-share value change: $0.30

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.43

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.7B

- ROIC, last three-year median: 22.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.39

- FY2017: $1.49

- FY2018: $1.13

- FY2019: $1.45

- FY2020: $1.78

- FY2021: $1.54

- FY2022: $1.23

- FY2023: $1.42

- FY2024: $1.67

- FY2025: $1.43

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.58×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.26×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.6%

- FY2018: -5.5%

- FY2019: -4.2%

- FY2020: 0.9%

- FY2021: 0.3%

- FY2022: 0.8%

- FY2023: -7.2%

- FY2024: -2.8%

- FY2025: -3.6%

## Holders

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 29% since Nov 2022 · "How Will $400 Million in Commodity Headwinds Test REYN's 2026 Outlook?" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +1.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:29.502Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-30: Reynolds Consumer Q1 Adjusted Earnings Flat, Revenue Declines; 2025 Outlook Updated ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reynolds-consumer-q1-adjusted-earnings-124042885.html))

- 2025-08-12: REYN Q2 Deep Dive: Stable Volumes and Product Innovation Offset Margin Pressure ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reyn-q2-deep-dive-stable-050138238.html))

- 2025-11-08: Will Lower Revenue Guidance and Insider Buying Shift the Investment Narrative for Reynolds (REYN)? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lower-revenue-guidance-insider-buying-020931103.html))

- 2026-02-05: REYN Q4 Deep Dive: Stable Execution and Market Share Gains Offset by Cautious Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reyn-q4-deep-dive-stable-053242484.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1786431/000162828026005284/reyn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-04.

- FY2017: $3.0B 

- FY2018: $3.1B 

- FY2019: $3.0B 

- FY2020: $3.3B 

- FY2021: $3.6B 

- FY2022: $3.8B 

- FY2023: $3.8B 

- FY2024: $3.7B 

- FY2025: $3.7B 

- FY2026: $3.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 25.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1786431/000162828026005284/reyn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-04.

- FY2017: 29.2% 

- FY2018: 26.5% 

- FY2019: 29.0% 

- FY2020: 29.8% 

- FY2021: 22.8% 

- FY2022: 20.3% 

- FY2023: 25.1% 

- FY2024: 26.5% 

- FY2025: 24.6% 

- FY2026: 25.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaging & containers; annual sales are USD 3.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1786431/000162828026005284/reyn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: revenue 3721000000; grossProfit 914000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.6% to 26.5% during 2023–25; it earns 20% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 25.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1786431/000162828026005284/reyn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.19452449567723343],[2018,0.12700824186258497],[2019,0.25951615784914817],[2020,0.23953758631406832],[2021,0.19137483627017274],[2022,0.1490621859997767],[2023,0.2724853645556147],[2024,0.22504611600737856],[2025,0.19070062119479556],[2026,0.20592272337077042]]; median 0.20022360952400192. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 2% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 9 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 43000000; owner earnings 133000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 56000000; owner earnings 336000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 82000000; owner earnings 181000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 109000000; owner earnings 207000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2020: growth capex 39748180.665314764; upkeep 103251819.33468524; owner earnings 358748180.6653148. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11079688429806099.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2021: growth capex 32000000; upkeep 109000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 324000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09876543209876543.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2022: growth capex 11000000; upkeep 117000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 258000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.04263565891472868.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 104000000; cash acquisitions 6000000; owner earnings 318000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.018867924528301886.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 120000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 361000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1786431/000162828026005284/reyn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: growth capex 5713984.767759293; upkeep 155286015.2322407; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 280713984.7677593. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0203551838448184.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,124000000],[2018,124000000],[2019,124000000],[2020,124000000],[2021,192000000],[2022,192000000],[2023,192000000],[2024,192000000],[2025,192000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 74.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); REYN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 74.088 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1786431/000162828026005284/reyn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); acturing facilities, especially one that is a sole producer, or the loss of any key suppliers, due to any reason, including an accident, labor issues, weather conditions, natural disaster, a disease outbreak (including epidemics, pandemics or similar widespread public health concerns), cyber-attacks against information systems (such as ransomware) or otherwise, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our business has been and continues to be impacted by fluctuations in raw material, energy and freight costs, including the impact of tariffs and similar matters.

Fluctuations in raw material and energy costs have adversely affected, and could in the future adversely affect, our business, financial condition and results of operations. Raw material costs represent a significant portion of our cost of sales. The primary raw materials we use are plastic resins, particularly polyethylene and polystyrene, and aluminum. The prices of our raw materials have fluctuated significantly in recent years. Aluminum prices have been historically volatile as aluminum is a cyclical commodity with prices subject to global market factors. Resin prices have also historically fluctuated with changes in crude oil and natural gas prices as well as changes in refining capacity and the demand for other petroleum-based products. We experienced significant increases in material costs in 2025, particularly in aluminum prices, which negatively impacted our results. Significant increases in material costs could also occur in future periods, which could negatively impact our future results.

Raw material costs are also impacted by governmental actions, such as tariffs and trade sanctions. For example, the imposition by the U.S. government of tariffs on products imported from certain countries and trade sanctions against certain countries have introduced greater uncertainty with respect to policies affecting trade between the United States and other countries and have impacted the cost of certain raw materials used in our business, including aluminum and resin. Further developments in trade relations, including the imposition of new or increased tariffs by the United States and/or other countries, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We typically do not enter into long-term fixed price purchase contracts for our principal raw materials. The majority of sales contracts for our products generally do not contain contractual cost pass-through mechanisms for raw material costs. Where our contracts use such pass-through mechanisms, differences in timing between purchases of raw materials and sales to customers can create a “lead lag” effect during which margins are negatively impacted when raw material costs rise and positively impacted when raw material costs fall

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.032263782211354175. Price 22.66; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2020-01: $28.55 per share

- 2020-02: $28.85 per share

- 2020-03: $29.17 per share

- 2020-04: $32.43 per share

- 2020-05: $33.39 per share

- 2020-06: $34.74 per share

- 2020-07: $34.06 per share

- 2020-08: $33.23 per share

- 2020-09: $30.62 per share

- 2020-10: $28.24 per share

- 2020-11: $30.34 per share

- 2020-12: $30.04 per share

- 2021-01: $30.00 per share

- 2021-02: $27.61 per share

- 2021-03: $29.78 per share

- 2021-04: $29.32 per share

- 2021-05: $30.14 per share

- 2021-06: $30.35 per share

- 2021-07: $28.45 per share

- 2021-08: $28.28 per share

- 2021-09: $27.34 per share

- 2021-10: $26.98 per share

- 2021-11: $29.18 per share

- 2021-12: $31.40 per share

- 2022-01: $30.27 per share

- 2022-02: $29.77 per share

- 2022-03: $29.34 per share

- 2022-04: $29.59 per share

- 2022-05: $27.22 per share

- 2022-06: $27.27 per share

- 2022-07: $29.06 per share

- 2022-08: $27.93 per share

- 2022-09: $26.01 per share

- 2022-10: $30.54 per share

- 2022-11: $31.96 per share

- 2022-12: $29.98 per share

- 2023-01: $29.77 per share

- 2023-02: $27.44 per share

- 2023-03: $27.50 per share

- 2023-04: $28.03 per share

- 2023-05: $27.44 per share

- 2023-06: $28.25 per share

- 2023-07: $27.68 per share

- 2023-08: $27.29 per share

- 2023-09: $25.63 per share

- 2023-10: $25.43 per share

- 2023-11: $26.24 per share

- 2023-12: $26.84 per share

- 2024-01: $27.17 per share

- 2024-02: $29.50 per share

- 2024-03: $28.56 per share

- 2024-04: $28.63 per share

- 2024-05: $28.44 per share

- 2024-06: $27.98 per share

- 2024-07: $27.82 per share

- 2024-08: $31.50 per share

- 2024-09: $31.10 per share

- 2024-10: $26.95 per share

- 2024-11: $27.69 per share

- 2024-12: $26.99 per share

- 2025-01: $27.61 per share

- 2025-02: $24.48 per share

- 2025-03: $23.86 per share

- 2025-04: $23.00 per share

- 2025-05: $22.08 per share

- 2025-06: $21.42 per share

- 2025-07: $22.49 per share

- 2025-08: $23.21 per share

- 2025-09: $24.47 per share

- 2025-10: $24.44 per share

- 2025-11: $24.98 per share

- 2025-12: $22.92 per share

- 2026-01: $23.17 per share

- 2026-02: $24.81 per share

- 2026-03: $21.18 per share

- 2026-04: $20.97 per share

- 2026-05: $21.67 per share

- 2026-06: $26.85 per share

- 2026-07: $24.94 per share

- 2026-08: $23.15 per share

- 2026-09: $21.62 per share

- 2026-10: $22.66 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $13.11 per share, central $14.76 per share, high $16.94 per share

- FY2021: low $17.32 per share, central $19.65 per share, high $22.75 per share

- FY2022: low $13.57 per share, central $15.44 per share, high $17.93 per share

- FY2023: low $16.74 per share, central $19.02 per share, high $22.06 per share

- FY2024: low $17.79 per share, central $20.20 per share, high $23.41 per share

- FY2025: low $16.71 per share, central $18.97 per share, high $21.97 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1786431/000162828026005284/reyn-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-04.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.