# RIO Tinto (RIO.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/RIO.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:34.334Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2025.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 152.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 120.95 per share, central AUD 159.71 per share, high AUD 185.79 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 159.71 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:34.334Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.3% at the stated quote. About 10.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.18×

- FY2017: 0.31×

- FY2018: 0.31×

- FY2019: 0.34×

- FY2020: 0.38×

- FY2021: 0.47×

- FY2022: 0.36×

- FY2023: 0.27×

- FY2024: 0.29×

- FY2025: 0.24×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 9.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 20.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 9.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 36.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 27.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 12.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 17.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.6%

- FY2017: 17.6%

- FY2018: 22.1%

- FY2019: 22.0%

- FY2020: 24.1%

- FY2021: 44.7%

- FY2022: 26.3%

- FY2023: 18.3%

- FY2024: 19.0%

- FY2025: 13.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.87×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $57B

- Net income, five-year total: $65B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 40.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.99×

- FY2022: 0.84×

- FY2023: 0.80×

- FY2024: 0.65×

- FY2025: 0.97×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.6% vs 18.3%

- Per-share earnings: 2.55 to 6.30 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: $91B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $25B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.0%

- Per-share value change: $3.75

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.55

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.30

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.80

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $6.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $110B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.55

- FY2017: $4.89

- FY2018: $7.97

- FY2019: $4.89

- FY2020: $6.00

- FY2021: $12.95

- FY2022: $7.62

- FY2023: $6.16

- FY2024: $7.07

- FY2025: $6.30

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.09×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.72×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.3%

- FY2017: -5.4%

- FY2018: 2.0%

- FY2019: -7.9%

- FY2020: -6.3%

- FY2021: -4.1%

- FY2022: -3.8%

- FY2023: -4.9%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: -5.8%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.3% a year for ten years · sales +11.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.731Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +11.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/863064/000162828026009531/rio-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: $34B 

- FY2017: $40B 

- FY2018: $41B 

- FY2019: $43B 

- FY2020: $45B 

- FY2021: $63B 

- FY2022: $56B 

- FY2023: $54B 

- FY2024: $54B 

- FY2025: $60B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 27.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/863064/000162828026009531/rio-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 20.7% 

- FY2017: 34.0% 

- FY2018: 35.0% 

- FY2019: 37.5% 

- FY2020: 41.9% 

- FY2021: 49.4% 

- FY2022: 38.3% 

- FY2023: 32.0% 

- FY2024: 56.4% 

- FY2025: 27.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other industrial metals & mining; annual sales are USD 59.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/863064/000162828026009531/rio-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 59647970000; grossProfit 16138834000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.1% to 56.4% during 2023–25; it earns 20.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 32%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 56.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/863064/000162828026009531/rio-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 27.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0956603315034564],[2017,0.17583777769320114],[2018,0.22092362629468726],[2019,0.21995009614504166],[2020,0.2410480912079957],[2021,0.4473955898279658],[2022,0.26266753440786283],[2023,0.1833710840199573],[2024,0.18965844957394173],[2025,0.1361668399977362]]; median 0.2048042728594917. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 61.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 40.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3012000000; owner earnings 6399000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 107000000; upkeep 4375000000; owner earnings 8762000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.012211823784524081.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 775247392.9733782; upkeep 4654752607.026622; owner earnings 12998247392.973377. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.059642455596934034.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 1104000000; upkeep 4384000000; owner earnings 7748200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14248470612529363.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 1910000000; upkeep 4279000000; owner earnings 9533400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20034824931294187.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 2687000000; upkeep 4697000000; owner earnings 20821400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12904991979405803.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 6750000000; owner earnings 10440000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 7086000000; owner earnings 8035800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 9621000000; owner earnings 7566400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/863064/000162828026009531/rio-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 6188149828; upkeep 6577000000; owner earnings 9996337000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.619041737788552.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Incremental return on capital 0.40273844505937484, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,2725000000],[2017,4250000000],[2018,5356000000],[2019,10334000000],[2020,6132000000],[2021,15357000000],[2022,11727000000],[2023,6470000000],[2024,7025000000],[2025,6359290286]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 5.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); RIO.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 5.292 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 32%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04903414130900299. Price 152.7; FX 1.4454626926079037; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.38055785694559513 → FY2025 6.102769841269842. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 54.18 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 57.75 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 59.90 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 66.68 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 61.99 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 60.46 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 60.44 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 62.81 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 63.27 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 65.79 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 67.84 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 66.53 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 69.45 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 70.95 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 75.81 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 76.85 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 81.16 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 72.70 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 79.86 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 82.97 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 83.44 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 81.20 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 72.74 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 78.76 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 76.40 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 73.28 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 78.47 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 87.05 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 96.16 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 97.91 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 95.37 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 100.30 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 103.76 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 98.90 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 87.58 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 92.67 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 90.88 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 96.90 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 100.40 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 98.77 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 87.27 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 84.57 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 87.51 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 93.40 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 97.96 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 102.00 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 98.00 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 94.32 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 92.43 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 101.40 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 113.83 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 110.31 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 127.19 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 110.75 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 121.15 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 123.73 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 126.64 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 133.42 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 112.06 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 100.18 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 90.29 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 93.50 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 100.11 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 111.56 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 118.17 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 119.11 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 112.83 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 114.45 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 102.70 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 97.83 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 94.50 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 93.39 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 88.20 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 109.62 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 116.41 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 126.64 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 116.73 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 120.14 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 112.25 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 107.00 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 114.69 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 117.07 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 112.90 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 113.55 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 117.58 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 125.04 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 135.66 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 132.92 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 123.78 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 121.76 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 130.49 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 128.96 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 119.00 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 117.48 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 111.55 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 129.13 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 119.31 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 118.24 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 117.46 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 117.40 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 113.37 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 115.49 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 117.10 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 112.66 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 107.13 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 111.70 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 115.47 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 122.03 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 132.87 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 132.28 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 146.82 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 151.55 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 167.33 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 161.43 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 167.40 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 185.63 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 172.51 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 170.57 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 174.81 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 166.93 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 161.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2016: low AUD 12.10 per share, central AUD 12.90 per share, high AUD 13.97 per share

- FY2017: low AUD 32.01 per share, central AUD 35.22 per share, high AUD 39.49 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 81.51 per share, central AUD 91.28 per share, high AUD 104.30 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 89.86 per share, central AUD 103.89 per share, high AUD 119.44 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 103.03 per share, central AUD 115.78 per share, high AUD 132.75 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 155.45 per share, central AUD 185.66 per share, high AUD 214.29 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 128.50 per share, central AUD 153.54 per share, high AUD 177.72 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 110.71 per share, central AUD 130.77 per share, high AUD 151.00 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 102.96 per share, central AUD 116.41 per share, high AUD 134.31 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 120.10 per share, central AUD 158.57 per share, high AUD 184.47 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:19.830Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/863064/000162828026009531/rio-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.