# Rockwell Automation (ROK.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ROK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:39.055Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $422.03 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $124.37 per share, central $147.00 per share, high $170.66 per share. Buy at or below the central value $147.00 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:39.055Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.4% at the stated quote. About 5.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.17×

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.17×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.17×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 59.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 34.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 46.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 44.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 23.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: >100%

- FY2017: 92.3%

- FY2018: 60.4%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: 94.9%

- FY2021: 25.9%

- FY2022: 39.8%

- FY2023: 58.6%

- FY2024: 34.9%

- FY2025: 38.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.09×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $6.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 61.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 26.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.05×

- FY2022: 1.10×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 1.10×

- FY2025: 1.16×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 92.3% vs 38.8%

- Per-share earnings: 6.10 to 8.32 (three-year endpoint medians)

- material buybacks concentrated at lower earnings yields (Spearman rho below threshold)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Market cap gain: $16B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$681M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 4.0%

- Per-share value change: $2.22

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $6.10

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.32

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.65

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $4.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 92.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 38.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.57

- FY2017: $6.36

- FY2018: $4.22

- FY2019: $5.83

- FY2020: $8.78

- FY2021: $11.60

- FY2022: $7.99

- FY2023: $12.00

- FY2024: $8.32

- FY2025: $7.68

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.78×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.29×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.1%

- FY2017: -2.9%

- FY2018: -12.2%

- FY2019: -8.0%

- FY2020: -1.3%

- FY2021: 0.9%

- FY2022: 1.0%

- FY2023: 0.1%

- FY2024: 0.8%

- FY2025: -6.0%

## Holders

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.4% a year for ten years · sales +1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:31.293Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-07: Rockwell Automation Lifts Full-Year Profit Outlook Following Second-Quarter Beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rockwell-automation-lifts-full-profit-142004312.html))

- 2025-06-11: ROK Q1 Earnings Call: Tariffs, Cost Discipline, and Automation Demand Shape Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rok-q1-earnings-call-tariffs-085909819.html))

- 2025-11-06: Rockwell tops fourth-quarter profit, revenue estimates on automation demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rockwell-tops-fourth-quarter-profit-132839194.html))

- 2026-05-05: Automation Play Breaks Out On Q2 Earnings; Hikes Outlook On Improved AI, Factory Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/499cc0bb-22b0-33d8-a6d7-b861bffb9ade/automation-play-breaks-out-on.html))

- 2026-08-06: ROK Q3 Earnings Call Signals Broader Demand, Higher Costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/rok-q3-earnings-call-signals-140000872.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1024478/000102447825000116/rok-20250930.htm; observed 2025-11-12.

- FY2016: $5.9B 

- FY2017: $6.3B 

- FY2018: $6.7B 

- FY2019: $6.7B 

- FY2020: $6.3B 

- FY2021: $7.0B 

- FY2022: $7.8B 

- FY2023: $9.1B 

- FY2024: $8.3B 

- FY2025: $8.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 48.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1024478/000102447825000116/rok-20250930.htm; observed 2025-11-12.

- FY2016: 47.1% 

- FY2017: 47.2% 

- FY2018: 49.1% 

- FY2019: 48.7% 

- FY2020: 46.5% 

- FY2021: 41.4% 

- FY2022: 40.0% 

- FY2023: 41.0% 

- FY2024: 44.5% 

- FY2025: 48.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty industrial machinery; annual sales are USD 8.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1024478/000102447825000116/rok-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-12); FY2025: revenue 8342000000; grossProfit 4016000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ROK.US: Rockwell Automation, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides industrial automation and digital transformation solutions in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates in three segments: Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services. The company offers drives, motion, advanced material handling, safety, sensing, industrial components, hardware, software, and configured-to-order products; and control and visualization software and hardware, digital twin, simulation and information software, network and security infrastructure, and custom-engineered systems. It also provides digital consulting, professional services, engineered-to-order solutions, recurring services, cybersecurity, safety, remote monitoring, customer technical support and repair, asset management and optimization consulting, and training, as well as spare parts. The company sells its products through independent distributors in relation to its direct sales force. It serves discrete end markets, including automotive, semiconductor, e-commerce, and warehouse automation; hybrid end markets, such as food and beverage, life sciences, and tire; and process end markets comprising energy, mining, and chemicals. The company was formerly known as Rockwell International Corporation and changed its name to Rockwell Automation, Inc. in February 2002. Rockwell Automation, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 41% to 48.1% during 2023–25; it earns 59.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 41%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 44.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1024478/000102447825000116/rok-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 48.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,1.691784958472092],[2017,0.923484224126374],[2018,0.6043592474263401],[2019,1.8159295441112393],[2020,0.9485841355750196],[2021,0.25860059482814607],[2022,0.3979319754643863],[2023,0.5860417583554091],[2024,0.34939721732745344],[2025,0.3882089879504556]]; median 0.5952005028908746. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 40% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1024478/000102447825000116/rok-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-12); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.4141109554977563],[2022,0.3997216638317613],[2023,0.41035548686244205]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 425 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 116900000; owner earnings 785000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 141700000; owner earnings 852900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 125500000; owner earnings 574600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 132800000; owner earnings 715200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 113900000; owner earnings 1082200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 120300000; owner earnings 1427600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 141100000; owner earnings 1030000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 160500000; owner earnings 1476900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 224700000; owner earnings 1045200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1024478/000102447825000116/rok-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 186000000; owner earnings 1008000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,378200000],[2017,390700000],[2018,440800000],[2019,459800000],[2020,472800000],[2021,497100000],[2022,519400000],[2023,542400000],[2024,571000000],[2025,591000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1024478/000102447825000116/rok-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 425000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ROK.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.164 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We rely on our distribution channel for a substantial portion of our sales." (SEC filing, Nov 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1024478/000102447825000116/rok-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-12); We rely on our distribution channel for a substantial portion of our sales.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 3.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.21027677219396457. Price 422.03; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 6.390567428150332 → FY2025 8.912466843501326. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $119.72 per share

- 2016-11: $133.71 per share

- 2016-12: $134.40 per share

- 2017-01: $147.99 per share

- 2017-02: $151.10 per share

- 2017-03: $155.71 per share

- 2017-04: $157.35 per share

- 2017-05: $158.72 per share

- 2017-06: $161.96 per share

- 2017-07: $165.03 per share

- 2017-08: $164.06 per share

- 2017-09: $178.21 per share

- 2017-10: $200.82 per share

- 2017-11: $193.08 per share

- 2017-12: $196.35 per share

- 2018-01: $197.29 per share

- 2018-02: $180.80 per share

- 2018-03: $174.20 per share

- 2018-04: $164.53 per share

- 2018-05: $175.41 per share

- 2018-06: $166.23 per share

- 2018-07: $187.56 per share

- 2018-08: $180.96 per share

- 2018-09: $187.52 per share

- 2018-10: $164.73 per share

- 2018-11: $174.34 per share

- 2018-12: $150.48 per share

- 2019-01: $169.52 per share

- 2019-02: $178.56 per share

- 2019-03: $175.46 per share

- 2019-04: $180.71 per share

- 2019-05: $148.85 per share

- 2019-06: $163.83 per share

- 2019-07: $160.78 per share

- 2019-08: $152.79 per share

- 2019-09: $164.80 per share

- 2019-10: $171.99 per share

- 2019-11: $195.84 per share

- 2019-12: $202.67 per share

- 2020-01: $191.66 per share

- 2020-02: $183.50 per share

- 2020-03: $150.91 per share

- 2020-04: $189.48 per share

- 2020-05: $216.16 per share

- 2020-06: $213.00 per share

- 2020-07: $218.14 per share

- 2020-08: $230.53 per share

- 2020-09: $220.68 per share

- 2020-10: $237.12 per share

- 2020-11: $255.56 per share

- 2020-12: $250.81 per share

- 2021-01: $248.53 per share

- 2021-02: $243.28 per share

- 2021-03: $265.44 per share

- 2021-04: $264.26 per share

- 2021-05: $263.72 per share

- 2021-06: $286.02 per share

- 2021-07: $307.42 per share

- 2021-08: $325.45 per share

- 2021-09: $294.04 per share

- 2021-10: $319.40 per share

- 2021-11: $336.20 per share

- 2021-12: $348.85 per share

- 2022-01: $289.22 per share

- 2022-02: $266.58 per share

- 2022-03: $280.03 per share

- 2022-04: $252.67 per share

- 2022-05: $213.20 per share

- 2022-06: $199.31 per share

- 2022-07: $255.28 per share

- 2022-08: $236.94 per share

- 2022-09: $215.11 per share

- 2022-10: $255.30 per share

- 2022-11: $264.22 per share

- 2022-12: $257.57 per share

- 2023-01: $282.03 per share

- 2023-02: $294.93 per share

- 2023-03: $293.45 per share

- 2023-04: $283.41 per share

- 2023-05: $278.60 per share

- 2023-06: $329.45 per share

- 2023-07: $336.29 per share

- 2023-08: $312.08 per share

- 2023-09: $285.87 per share

- 2023-10: $262.81 per share

- 2023-11: $275.44 per share

- 2023-12: $310.48 per share

- 2024-01: $253.28 per share

- 2024-02: $285.08 per share

- 2024-03: $291.33 per share

- 2024-04: $270.96 per share

- 2024-05: $257.53 per share

- 2024-06: $275.28 per share

- 2024-07: $278.65 per share

- 2024-08: $272.03 per share

- 2024-09: $268.46 per share

- 2024-10: $266.71 per share

- 2024-11: $295.14 per share

- 2024-12: $285.79 per share

- 2025-01: $278.43 per share

- 2025-02: $287.15 per share

- 2025-03: $258.38 per share

- 2025-04: $247.68 per share

- 2025-05: $315.55 per share

- 2025-06: $332.17 per share

- 2025-07: $351.71 per share

- 2025-08: $343.43 per share

- 2025-09: $349.53 per share

- 2025-10: $368.36 per share

- 2025-11: $395.86 per share

- 2025-12: $389.07 per share

- 2026-01: $421.65 per share

- 2026-02: $407.45 per share

- 2026-03: $358.88 per share

- 2026-04: $408.91 per share

- 2026-05: $451.06 per share

- 2026-06: $495.08 per share

- 2026-07: $480.08 per share

- 2026-08: $424.43 per share

- 2026-09: $435.33 per share

- 2026-10: $432.29 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $82.39 per share, central $91.44 per share, high $103.51 per share

- FY2017: low $92.44 per share, central $102.77 per share, high $116.54 per share

- FY2018: low $90.48 per share, central $107.91 per share, high $124.84 per share

- FY2019: low $116.09 per share, central $165.95 per share, high $193.76 per share

- FY2020: low $108.94 per share, central $157.19 per share, high $184.09 per share

- FY2021: low $92.23 per share, central $104.40 per share, high $120.60 per share

- FY2022: low $104.38 per share, central $124.47 per share, high $144.45 per share

- FY2023: low $157.69 per share, central $191.70 per share, high $222.24 per share

- FY2024: low $136.26 per share, central $160.91 per share, high $186.84 per share

- FY2025: low $121.42 per share, central $147.03 per share, high $171.10 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1024478/000102447825000116/rok-20250930.htm); period 2025-09-30, filed 2025-11-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.