# Ross Stores (ROST.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ROST

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:40.057Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $234.83 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $112.02 per share, central $155.06 per share, high $180.04 per share. Buy at or below the central value $155.06 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:40.057Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.25×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- FY2026: 0.12×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.14×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 30.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 27.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 27.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 27.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 30.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 57.6%

- FY2018: 63.5%

- FY2019: 71.6%

- FY2020: 30.0%

- FY2021: 8.2%

- FY2022: 37.4%

- FY2023: 27.8%

- FY2024: 30.5%

- FY2025: 30.3%

- FY2026: 30.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $9.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $9.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 60.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 2.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.83×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 63.5% vs 30.3%

- Per-share earnings: 2.83 to 6.32 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Market cap gain: $35B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 10.6%

- Per-share value change: $3.49

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.83

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.32

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.49

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $15B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 63.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 30.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $2.83

- FY2018: $3.55

- FY2019: $4.26

- FY2020: $4.60

- FY2021: $0.24

- FY2022: $4.87

- FY2023: $4.38

- FY2024: $5.56

- FY2025: $6.32

- FY2026: $6.61

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.17×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.41×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -8.3%

- FY2018: -5.6%

- FY2019: -7.9%

- FY2020: -5.5%

- FY2021: -17.0%

- FY2022: -0.1%

- FY2023: -1.3%

- FY2024: -4.5%

- FY2025: -1.8%

- FY2026: -5.7%

## Holders

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.5% a year for ten years · sales +7.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:31.540Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-23: Ross Stores extends losing streak on tariff pressures, pulled guidance ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4461090-ross-stores-extends-losing-streak-on-tariff-pressures-pulled-guidance?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-08-21: Ross Stores tops quarterly profit estimates as shoppers seek discount apparel ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ross-stores-tops-quarterly-profit-estimates-as-shoppers-seek-discount-apparel-4205791))

- 2025-11-20: Ross Stores Exceeds Third Quarter Earnings Guidance, Raises Full Year Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ross-stores-exceeds-third-quarter-210100448.html))

- 2026-02-25: Ross Stores Turns Retail Bankruptcies Into Potential Multi Quarter Margin Tailwind ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ross-stores-turns-retail-bankruptcies-061128322.html))

- 2026-03-04: Ross Stores posts record FY25 sales, projects continued growth in 2026 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ross-stores-posts-record-fy25-114821692.html))

- 2026-07-31: Is Ross Stores (ROST) Fully Valued After Its Earnings Beat And Raised Guidance? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ross-stores-rost-fully-valued-180844828.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +7.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745732/000074573226000006/rost-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2018: $14B 

- FY2019: $15B 

- FY2020: $16B 

- FY2021: $13B 

- FY2022: $19B 

- FY2023: $19B 

- FY2024: $20B 

- FY2025: $21B 

- FY2026: $23B 

- FY2027: $25B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 27.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745732/000074573226000006/rost-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2017: 28.7% 

- FY2018: 29.0% 

- FY2019: 28.4% 

- FY2020: 28.1% 

- FY2021: 21.5% 

- FY2022: 27.5% 

- FY2023: 25.4% 

- FY2024: 27.4% 

- FY2025: 27.8% 

- FY2026: 27.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in apparel retail; annual sales are USD 22.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745732/000074573226000006/rost-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: revenue 22750559000; grossProfit 6358294675; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ROST.US: Ross Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS brands in the United States. The company offers designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home-fashioned products for the entire family. It sells its products to middle income households and households with lower to more moderate incomes. Ross Stores, Inc. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Dublin, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.4% to 27.9% during 2024–26; it earns 30.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 27.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745732/000074573226000006/rost-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 27.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.5763747650536595],[2018,0.6346084694492936],[2019,0.716278893542212],[2020,0.29968154846420664],[2021,0.0820909880161189],[2022,0.3738119273815771],[2023,0.27818487874853765],[2024,0.3045388590695939],[2025,0.30346194675500854],[2026,0.3002484074792977]]; median 0.30400040291230124. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 14.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 60% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 297880000; owner earnings 1122289000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2018: growth capex 58260000; upkeep 313163000; owner earnings 1362753000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.042751694547728016.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2019: growth capex 83541000; upkeep 330357000; owner earnings 1587457000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.052625677419923814.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2020: growth capex 204591000; upkeep 350892000; owner earnings 1660928000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12317872899969173.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 405433000; owner earnings 44194000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2022: growth capex 197176000; upkeep 360664000; owner earnings 1722589000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11446491298853063.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 654070000; owner earnings 1252626000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: growth capex 343380000; upkeep 419432000; owner earnings 1874520000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1831828948210742.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: growth capex 266879815.5589913; upkeep 453224184.4410087; owner earnings 2084293815.5589914. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12804327948716587.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745732/000074573226000006/rost-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: growth capex 309884000; upkeep 509391000; owner earnings 2145044000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14446510188136.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Incremental return on capital 0.6003574055200309, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Dividend observations: [[2017,214640000],[2018,247526000],[2019,337189000],[2020,369793000],[2021,101404000],[2022,405123000],[2023,431295000],[2024,454814000],[2025,488721000],[2026,528085000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745732/000074573226000006/rost-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: cash repurchases 1129899000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ROST.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.138 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Unexpected changes in the level of consumer spending or preferences could adversely affect us." (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745732/000074573226000006/rost-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); Unexpected changes in the level of consumer spending or preferences could adversely affect us.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 10.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2231067009798703. Price 234.83; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 2.511438097464352 → FY2026 6.612016669954627. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $62.54 per share

- 2016-11: $67.59 per share

- 2016-12: $65.60 per share

- 2017-01: $66.11 per share

- 2017-02: $68.58 per share

- 2017-03: $65.87 per share

- 2017-04: $65.00 per share

- 2017-05: $63.92 per share

- 2017-06: $57.73 per share

- 2017-07: $55.32 per share

- 2017-08: $58.45 per share

- 2017-09: $64.57 per share

- 2017-10: $63.49 per share

- 2017-11: $76.03 per share

- 2017-12: $80.25 per share

- 2018-01: $82.39 per share

- 2018-02: $78.09 per share

- 2018-03: $77.98 per share

- 2018-04: $80.85 per share

- 2018-05: $78.88 per share

- 2018-06: $84.75 per share

- 2018-07: $87.43 per share

- 2018-08: $95.78 per share

- 2018-09: $99.10 per share

- 2018-10: $99.00 per share

- 2018-11: $87.60 per share

- 2018-12: $83.20 per share

- 2019-01: $92.12 per share

- 2019-02: $94.83 per share

- 2019-03: $93.10 per share

- 2019-04: $97.66 per share

- 2019-05: $92.99 per share

- 2019-06: $99.12 per share

- 2019-07: $106.03 per share

- 2019-08: $106.01 per share

- 2019-09: $109.85 per share

- 2019-10: $109.67 per share

- 2019-11: $116.15 per share

- 2019-12: $116.42 per share

- 2020-01: $112.19 per share

- 2020-02: $108.78 per share

- 2020-03: $86.97 per share

- 2020-04: $91.36 per share

- 2020-05: $96.96 per share

- 2020-06: $85.24 per share

- 2020-07: $89.67 per share

- 2020-08: $91.08 per share

- 2020-09: $93.32 per share

- 2020-10: $85.17 per share

- 2020-11: $107.52 per share

- 2020-12: $122.81 per share

- 2021-01: $111.29 per share

- 2021-02: $116.64 per share

- 2021-03: $119.91 per share

- 2021-04: $130.94 per share

- 2021-05: $126.39 per share

- 2021-06: $124.00 per share

- 2021-07: $122.69 per share

- 2021-08: $118.40 per share

- 2021-09: $108.85 per share

- 2021-10: $113.20 per share

- 2021-11: $109.09 per share

- 2021-12: $114.28 per share

- 2022-01: $97.75 per share

- 2022-02: $91.39 per share

- 2022-03: $90.46 per share

- 2022-04: $99.77 per share

- 2022-05: $85.02 per share

- 2022-06: $70.23 per share

- 2022-07: $81.26 per share

- 2022-08: $86.27 per share

- 2022-09: $84.27 per share

- 2022-10: $95.69 per share

- 2022-11: $117.67 per share

- 2022-12: $116.07 per share

- 2023-01: $118.19 per share

- 2023-02: $110.54 per share

- 2023-03: $106.13 per share

- 2023-04: $106.73 per share

- 2023-05: $103.62 per share

- 2023-06: $112.13 per share

- 2023-07: $114.64 per share

- 2023-08: $121.81 per share

- 2023-09: $112.95 per share

- 2023-10: $115.97 per share

- 2023-11: $130.38 per share

- 2023-12: $138.39 per share

- 2024-01: $140.28 per share

- 2024-02: $148.96 per share

- 2024-03: $146.76 per share

- 2024-04: $129.55 per share

- 2024-05: $139.76 per share

- 2024-06: $145.32 per share

- 2024-07: $143.23 per share

- 2024-08: $150.61 per share

- 2024-09: $150.51 per share

- 2024-10: $139.72 per share

- 2024-11: $154.87 per share

- 2024-12: $151.27 per share

- 2025-01: $150.56 per share

- 2025-02: $140.32 per share

- 2025-03: $127.79 per share

- 2025-04: $139.00 per share

- 2025-05: $140.09 per share

- 2025-06: $127.58 per share

- 2025-07: $136.54 per share

- 2025-08: $147.16 per share

- 2025-09: $152.39 per share

- 2025-10: $158.92 per share

- 2025-11: $176.36 per share

- 2025-12: $180.14 per share

- 2026-01: $188.65 per share

- 2026-02: $205.64 per share

- 2026-03: $216.63 per share

- 2026-04: $227.79 per share

- 2026-05: $231.73 per share

- 2026-06: $212.85 per share

- 2026-07: $251.07 per share

- 2026-08: $228.54 per share

- 2026-09: $233.40 per share

- 2026-10: $225.68 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $36.41 per share, central $52.12 per share, high $60.89 per share

- FY2018: low $48.27 per share, central $69.22 per share, high $80.90 per share

- FY2019: low $53.91 per share, central $77.27 per share, high $90.30 per share

- FY2020: low $65.02 per share, central $93.54 per share, high $109.45 per share

- FY2021: low $50.12 per share, central $55.26 per share, high $62.09 per share

- FY2022: low $87.71 per share, central $122.06 per share, high $141.21 per share

- FY2023: low $81.18 per share, central $109.30 per share, high $126.19 per share

- FY2024: low $93.08 per share, central $129.72 per share, high $150.15 per share

- FY2025: low $97.43 per share, central $136.16 per share, high $157.75 per share

- FY2026: low $104.56 per share, central $144.00 per share, high $166.90 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:37:25.457Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745732/000074573226000006/rost-20260131.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-31.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.