# Republic Services (RSG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/RSG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:41.876Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $229.65 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $78.21 per share, central $100.36 per share, high $117.29 per share. Buy at or below the central value $100.36 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:41.876Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.1% at the stated quote. About 6.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.17×

- FY2021: 0.19×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.20×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 29.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 27.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -9.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 29.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 34.8%

- FY2018: 28.9%

- FY2019: 28.2%

- FY2020: 26.0%

- FY2021: 28.8%

- FY2022: 27.3%

- FY2023: 29.4%

- FY2024: 32.6%

- FY2025: 30.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 31.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $8.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $8.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 602.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.02×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 28.9% vs 30.5%

- Per-share earnings: 2.13 to 6.49 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: $47B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $7.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 14.9%

- Per-share value change: $4.36

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.49

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.48

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $6.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $14B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 28.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 30.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.78

- FY2017: $3.77

- FY2018: $3.16

- FY2019: $3.33

- FY2020: $3.02

- FY2021: $4.04

- FY2022: $4.69

- FY2023: $5.47

- FY2024: $6.49

- FY2025: $6.85

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.01×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.45×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.0%

- FY2017: -3.0%

- FY2018: -5.6%

- FY2019: -5.6%

- FY2020: -6.4%

- FY2021: -6.0%

- FY2022: -5.9%

- FY2023: -6.0%

- FY2024: -5.8%

- FY2025: -6.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.3% a year for ten years · "RSG Raises 2026 Outlook as Pricing Strength Offsets Softer Volumes" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +1.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:31.998Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-12: RSG Q2 Deep Dive: Construction Weakness and Environmental Solutions Headwinds Pressure Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rsg-q2-deep-dive-construction-045718809.html))

- 2026-08-11: RSG Raises 2026 Outlook as Pricing Strength Offsets Softer Volumes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/rsg-raises-2026-outlook-pricing-133100650.html))

- 2026-09-19: Republic Services (RSG) Is Winning On Price While Volumes Slip ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/republic-services-rsg-winning-price-104333739.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060391/000106039126000094/rsg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2017: $10B 

- FY2018: $10B 

- FY2019: $10B 

- FY2020: $10B 

- FY2021: $11B 

- FY2022: $14B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $16B 

- FY2025: $17B 

- FY2026: $17B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 39.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060391/000106039126000094/rsg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2017: 27.0% 

- FY2018: 28.0% 

- FY2019: 28.3% 

- FY2020: 39.9% 

- FY2021: 29.1% 

- FY2022: 28.6% 

- FY2023: 29.6% 

- FY2024: 30.6% 

- FY2025: 42.0% 

- FY2026: 39.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in waste management; annual sales are USD 16.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060391/000106039126000094/rsg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 16591000000; grossProfit 6961000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); RSG.US: Republic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States and Canada. It is involved in the collection and processing of recyclable, solid waste, and industrial waste materials; transportation and disposal of non-hazardous and hazardous waste streams; and other environmental solutions. Its residential collection services include curbside collection of material for transport to transfer stations, landfills, recycling centers, and organics processing facilities; supply of recycling and waste containers; and renting of compactors. The company also engages in the processing and sale of old corrugated containers, old newsprint, aluminum, glass, and other materials; and provision of landfill services. It serves small-container, large-container, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 29.6% to 42% during 2023–25; it earns 29.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 29.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 30.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060391/000106039126000094/rsg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 42%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.3484550569700784],[2018,0.28902536174861876],[2019,0.2819857963491895],[2020,0.26019087169483646],[2021,0.2883822044158898],[2022,0.2731666870855495],[2023,0.29414118155212454],[2024,0.3262273942742723],[2025,0.30494326171314257],[2026,0.3186493078496662]]; median 0.2915832716503717. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

This increase was offset by a decrease in overall commodity prices compared to the same period in 2024.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060391/000106039126000094/rsg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); Volume also increased due to the opening of the Indianapolis Polymer Center and reopening of a recycling center on the west coast. This increase was offset by a decrease in overall commodity prices compared to the same period in 2024. The average price for recycled commodities, excluding glass and organics, for 2025 was $135 per ton compared to $164 per ton for 2024.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 870 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 927800000; owner earnings 755000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 989800000; owner earnings 1404700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1071800000; owner earnings 1079200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2019: growth capex 84700000; upkeep 1122400000; owner earnings 1073300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07891549427000838.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1194600000; owner earnings 931400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 48100000; upkeep 1268200000; owner earnings 1290400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03727526348419095.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 12800000; upkeep 1441200000; owner earnings 1487600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00860446356547459.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 31800000; upkeep 1599300000; owner earnings 1731000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.018370883882149046.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: growth capex 71000000; upkeep 1784000000; owner earnings 2043000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.034752814488497305.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060391/000106039126000094/rsg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1887000000; owner earnings 2180000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,418900000],[2017,440500000],[2018,461800000],[2019,491200000],[2020,522500000],[2021,552600000],[2022,592900000],[2023,638100000],[2024,687000000],[2025,738000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060391/000106039126000094/rsg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 870000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); RSG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.179 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Increases in the cost of fuel or petrochemicals increase our operating expenses" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060391/000106039126000094/rsg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); Increases in the cost of fuel or petrochemicals increase our operating expenses

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.19417670966415101. Price 229.65; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.4312156362767086 → FY2025 6.983419184541657. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $52.63 per share

- 2016-11: $55.49 per share

- 2016-12: $57.05 per share

- 2017-01: $57.38 per share

- 2017-02: $61.95 per share

- 2017-03: $62.81 per share

- 2017-04: $62.99 per share

- 2017-05: $63.61 per share

- 2017-06: $63.73 per share

- 2017-07: $64.22 per share

- 2017-08: $65.24 per share

- 2017-09: $66.06 per share

- 2017-10: $65.07 per share

- 2017-11: $64.94 per share

- 2017-12: $67.61 per share

- 2018-01: $68.80 per share

- 2018-02: $67.18 per share

- 2018-03: $66.23 per share

- 2018-04: $64.68 per share

- 2018-05: $67.43 per share

- 2018-06: $68.36 per share

- 2018-07: $72.48 per share

- 2018-08: $73.36 per share

- 2018-09: $72.66 per share

- 2018-10: $72.68 per share

- 2018-11: $77.34 per share

- 2018-12: $72.09 per share

- 2019-01: $76.71 per share

- 2019-02: $78.43 per share

- 2019-03: $80.38 per share

- 2019-04: $82.82 per share

- 2019-05: $84.59 per share

- 2019-06: $86.64 per share

- 2019-07: $88.65 per share

- 2019-08: $89.25 per share

- 2019-09: $86.55 per share

- 2019-10: $87.51 per share

- 2019-11: $88.65 per share

- 2019-12: $89.63 per share

- 2020-01: $95.05 per share

- 2020-02: $90.26 per share

- 2020-03: $75.06 per share

- 2020-04: $78.34 per share

- 2020-05: $85.46 per share

- 2020-06: $82.05 per share

- 2020-07: $87.25 per share

- 2020-08: $92.72 per share

- 2020-09: $93.35 per share

- 2020-10: $88.17 per share

- 2020-11: $96.72 per share

- 2020-12: $96.30 per share

- 2021-01: $90.52 per share

- 2021-02: $89.09 per share

- 2021-03: $99.35 per share

- 2021-04: $106.30 per share

- 2021-05: $109.18 per share

- 2021-06: $110.01 per share

- 2021-07: $118.36 per share

- 2021-08: $124.13 per share

- 2021-09: $120.06 per share

- 2021-10: $134.60 per share

- 2021-11: $132.26 per share

- 2021-12: $139.45 per share

- 2022-01: $127.66 per share

- 2022-02: $120.28 per share

- 2022-03: $132.50 per share

- 2022-04: $134.27 per share

- 2022-05: $133.84 per share

- 2022-06: $130.87 per share

- 2022-07: $138.66 per share

- 2022-08: $142.72 per share

- 2022-09: $136.04 per share

- 2022-10: $132.62 per share

- 2022-11: $139.29 per share

- 2022-12: $128.99 per share

- 2023-01: $124.82 per share

- 2023-02: $128.93 per share

- 2023-03: $135.22 per share

- 2023-04: $144.62 per share

- 2023-05: $141.63 per share

- 2023-06: $153.17 per share

- 2023-07: $151.11 per share

- 2023-08: $144.13 per share

- 2023-09: $142.51 per share

- 2023-10: $148.49 per share

- 2023-11: $161.84 per share

- 2023-12: $164.91 per share

- 2024-01: $171.12 per share

- 2024-02: $183.60 per share

- 2024-03: $191.44 per share

- 2024-04: $191.70 per share

- 2024-05: $185.19 per share

- 2024-06: $194.34 per share

- 2024-07: $194.32 per share

- 2024-08: $208.21 per share

- 2024-09: $200.84 per share

- 2024-10: $198.00 per share

- 2024-11: $218.30 per share

- 2024-12: $201.18 per share

- 2025-01: $216.87 per share

- 2025-02: $237.02 per share

- 2025-03: $242.16 per share

- 2025-04: $250.75 per share

- 2025-05: $257.29 per share

- 2025-06: $246.61 per share

- 2025-07: $230.65 per share

- 2025-08: $233.97 per share

- 2025-09: $229.48 per share

- 2025-10: $208.24 per share

- 2025-11: $217.06 per share

- 2025-12: $211.93 per share

- 2026-01: $215.09 per share

- 2026-02: $229.00 per share

- 2026-03: $219.02 per share

- 2026-04: $209.22 per share

- 2026-05: $200.44 per share

- 2026-06: $213.08 per share

- 2026-07: $210.55 per share

- 2026-08: $220.92 per share

- 2026-09: $209.87 per share

- 2026-10: $219.91 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $23.93 per share, central $27.22 per share, high $31.62 per share

- FY2017: low $26.05 per share, central $29.64 per share, high $34.42 per share

- FY2018: low $31.32 per share, central $35.64 per share, high $41.39 per share

- FY2019: low $36.43 per share, central $41.46 per share, high $48.14 per share

- FY2020: low $36.16 per share, central $41.15 per share, high $47.78 per share

- FY2021: low $41.55 per share, central $47.27 per share, high $54.90 per share

- FY2022: low $50.07 per share, central $56.97 per share, high $66.16 per share

- FY2023: low $56.87 per share, central $64.71 per share, high $75.15 per share

- FY2024: low $71.37 per share, central $91.65 per share, high $107.12 per share

- FY2025: low $75.36 per share, central $96.71 per share, high $113.02 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:37:27.312Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060391/000106039126000094/rsg-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.