# Rxo (RXO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/RXO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:43.728Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $29.06 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $0.72 per share, central $0.82 per share, high $0.95 per share. Buy at or below the central value $0.82 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:43.728Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.2% at the stated quote. About 3.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.73×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: -0.00×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 15.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 14.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: 9.4%

- FY2021: 23.6%

- FY2022: 35.7%

- FY2023: 8.4%

- FY2024: 2.1%

- FY2025: -0.5%

### economics: pass

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $29M

- Net income, five-year total: -$144M

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: $192M

- FY2022: $121M

- FY2023: $7.0M

- FY2024: -$248M

- FY2025: -$43M

### management: fail

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 0.53 to -0.59 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 7.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 7.9%

- Per-share value change: -$1.13

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.53

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.59

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: $0.53

- FY2020: $0.37

- FY2021: $1.30

- FY2022: $0.79

- FY2023: $0.03

- FY2024: -$2.17

- FY2025: -$0.59

### accounting: fail

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -4.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.79×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 56.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 2

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: 1.0%

- FY2021: -0.2%

- FY2022: -10.7%

- FY2023: -4.7%

- FY2024: -8.1%

- FY2025: -4.6%

## Holders

- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 49.6% a year for ten years · sales +26.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:32.400Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 49.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-07: RXO (NYSE:RXO) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q1 Earnings, Stock Drops ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rxo-nyse-rxo-reports-sales-104710996.html))

- 2025-11-10: RXO Q3 Deep Dive: Margin Squeeze Driven by Regulatory Capacity Exits and Weak Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rxo-q3-deep-dive-margin-153138634.html))

- 2026-02-06: RXO (NYSE:RXO) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q4 CY2025 Earnings, Stock Drops ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rxo-nyse-rxo-reports-sales-114457754.html))

- 2026-05-20: RXO Inc. (RXO) Jumps 10.6% on May Truckload Improvement ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/rxo-inc-rxo-jumps-10-033518374.html))

- 2026-08-07: RXO anticipates $35M-$45M Q3 adjusted EBITDA as brokerage momentum offsets last mile headwinds ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4628814-rxo-anticipates-35m-45m-q3-adjusted-ebitda-as-brokerage-momentum-offsets-last-mile-headwinds?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +26.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1929561/000192956126000013/rxo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-09.

- FY2019: $3.1B 

- FY2020: $3.4B 

- FY2021: $4.7B 

- FY2022: $4.8B 

- FY2023: $3.9B 

- FY2024: $4.6B 

- FY2025: $5.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 14.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1929561/000192956126000013/rxo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-09.

- FY2019: 15.6% 

- FY2020: 16.1% 

- FY2021: 15.7% 

- FY2022: 17.9% 

- FY2023: 16.8% 

- FY2024: 15.3% 

- FY2025: 14.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in trucking; annual sales are USD 5.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1929561/000192956126000013/rxo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: revenue 5742000000; grossProfit 825000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); RXO.US: RXO, Inc. engages in truck brokerage business in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Asia, and Europe. It offers truckload freight brokering services. The company also provides asset-light managed transportation and last mile services, as well as freight forwarding services, including facilitation of ocean and air transportation, customs brokerage, and additional domestic services including middle mile. RXO, Inc. was incorporated in 2022 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.4% to 16.8% during 2023–25; it earns 8.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 15.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1929561/000192956126000013/rxo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 14.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); 7-year return on capital observations [[2020,0.09351892127011745],[2021,0.2359707986136716],[2022,0.3573193983475743],[2023,0.08423597678916828],[2024,0.02119856887298748],[2025,-0.005106186518928901]]; median 0.08887744902964287. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 7 years; bought back USD 1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 56000000; owner earnings 80000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 47000000; owner earnings 72000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 39000000; owner earnings 192000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 57000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 121000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 64000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 7000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); Dividend observations: [[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1929561/000192956126000013/rxo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: cash repurchases 1000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); RXO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.757 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 49.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.7294403120642459. Price 29.06; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2022-10: $21.00 per share

- 2022-11: $19.00 per share

- 2022-12: $17.20 per share

- 2023-01: $18.32 per share

- 2023-02: $20.57 per share

- 2023-03: $19.64 per share

- 2023-04: $18.09 per share

- 2023-05: $20.87 per share

- 2023-06: $22.67 per share

- 2023-07: $22.05 per share

- 2023-08: $18.08 per share

- 2023-09: $19.73 per share

- 2023-10: $17.51 per share

- 2023-11: $20.96 per share

- 2023-12: $23.26 per share

- 2024-01: $20.80 per share

- 2024-02: $21.52 per share

- 2024-03: $21.87 per share

- 2024-04: $18.91 per share

- 2024-05: $20.41 per share

- 2024-06: $26.15 per share

- 2024-07: $31.71 per share

- 2024-08: $28.46 per share

- 2024-09: $28.00 per share

- 2024-10: $28.19 per share

- 2024-11: $30.15 per share

- 2024-12: $23.84 per share

- 2025-01: $25.65 per share

- 2025-02: $20.47 per share

- 2025-03: $19.10 per share

- 2025-04: $14.09 per share

- 2025-05: $15.53 per share

- 2025-06: $15.72 per share

- 2025-07: $15.45 per share

- 2025-08: $16.33 per share

- 2025-09: $15.38 per share

- 2025-10: $17.73 per share

- 2025-11: $13.22 per share

- 2025-12: $12.64 per share

- 2026-01: $14.58 per share

- 2026-02: $15.96 per share

- 2026-03: $14.62 per share

- 2026-04: $19.97 per share

- 2026-05: $25.58 per share

- 2026-06: $27.59 per share

- 2026-07: $20.25 per share

- 2026-08: $21.25 per share

- 2026-09: $20.46 per share

- 2026-10: $29.06 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $9.07 per share, central $10.32 per share, high $11.98 per share

- FY2024: low $8.00 per share, central $9.10 per share, high $10.57 per share

- FY2025: low $0.66 per share, central $0.76 per share, high $0.88 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1929561/000192956126000013/rxo-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-09.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.