# South32 (S32.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/S32.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 4.47 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 1.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.30×

- FY2018: 0.29×

- FY2019: 0.26×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.46×

- FY2023: -0.08×

- FY2024: -0.13×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- FY2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -3.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 43.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 12.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 19.7%

- FY2018: 21.0%

- FY2019: 13.0%

- FY2020: 3.1%

- FY2021: 2.4%

- FY2022: 30.3%

- FY2023: -3.8%

- FY2024: -6.1%

- FY2025: 4.2%

- FY2026: 6.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.41×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 119.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 8.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.96×

- FY2023: 3.14×

- FY2024: 4.02×

- FY2025: -0.20×

- FY2026: 0.27×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 19.7% vs 4.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.23 to 0.05 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Market cap gain: $2.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -18.2%

- Per-share value change: -$0.19

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.23

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.05

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.18

- Average buyback yield: 2.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $52M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $6.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 19.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.23

- FY2018: $0.26

- FY2019: $0.08

- FY2020: -$0.01

- FY2021: -$0.04

- FY2022: $0.58

- FY2023: -$0.04

- FY2024: -$0.04

- FY2025: $0.05

- FY2026: $0.24

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.50×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -6.1%

- FY2018: -2.5%

- FY2019: -9.7%

- FY2020: -10.4%

- FY2021: -12.1%

- FY2022: -2.5%

- FY2023: -9.4%

- FY2024: -9.3%

- FY2025: -8.2%

- FY2026: -3.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Up 35% since Oct 2023 · "South32 (ASX:S32) Is Up 6.5% After Earnings Jump and Sierra Gorda Upgrade Reshape Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +0.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:04.391Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-07-20: Australia's South32 beats estimates for fourth-quarter manganese output, shares rise ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/australias-south32-logs-higher-fourth-230118112.html))

- 2025-08-13: South32 threatens to shut Mozal smelter as power talks drag on ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/south32-flags-372-million-impairment-224246252.html))

- 2026-06-13: South32 Production Cut And Cost Risks Versus Valuation Discount And Targets ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/south32-production-cut-cost-risks-221048487.html))

- 2026-08-28: South32 (ASX:S32) Is Up 6.5% After Earnings Jump and Sierra Gorda Upgrade Reshape Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/south32-asx-s32-6-5-130844243.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: $7.2B 

- FY2018: $7.5B 

- FY2019: $7.3B 

- FY2020: $5.0B 

- FY2021: $5.5B 

- FY2022: $9.3B 

- FY2023: $5.8B 

- FY2024: $5.5B 

- FY2025: $5.8B 

- FY2026: $5.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 43.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 57.9% 

- FY2018: 46.2% 

- FY2019: 45.5% 

- FY2020: 40.6% 

- FY2021: 47.0% 

- FY2022: 58.9% 

- FY2023: 44.5% 

- FY2024: 41.2% 

- FY2025: 43.6% 

- FY2026: 43.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other industrial metals & mining; annual sales are USD 5.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/S32.LSE.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); FY2026: revenue 5816000000; grossProfit 2544000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 41.2% to 43.7% during 2024–26; it earns 5.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/S32.LSE.json#2024-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 41.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/S32.LSE.json#2025-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 43.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/S32.LSE.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 43.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.19698953223891535],[2018,0.21024145009569936],[2019,0.13039575897543565],[2020,0.031196581196581197],[2021,0.02413793103448276],[2022,0.3033801666823057],[2023,-0.03787448559670782],[2024,-0.060832896804609744],[2025,0.04156278855032318],[2026,0.06608833683342373]]; median 0.053825562691873455. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 14.5% of cash earnings; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/S32.LSE.json#2017-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 343000000; owner earnings 1651000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/S32.LSE.json#2018-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 470000000; owner earnings 1604000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/S32.LSE.json#2019-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 726000000; owner earnings 311400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/S32.LSE.json#2022-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 592000000; owner earnings 2571000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/S32.LSE.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); FY2026: growth capex 42325101.37801695; upkeep 1091674898.621983; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 291619541.37801695. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.14513808360720346.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); Incremental return on capital 1.1991370175940554, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,244000000],[2018,708000000],[2019,657000000],[2020,246000000],[2021,115000000],[2022,660000000],[2023,1007000000],[2024,163000000],[2025,294000000],[2026,292000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/S32.LSE.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 35000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); S32.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.22599999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 2.4 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:18.769Z); Closing price 4.47 AUD; reporting-to-trading FX 1.4454626926079037; FY2026 annual sales per share 1.2915833888518766; price multiple 2.3942979034044014. FY2026 cash earnings/share 0.06476116841617076. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 2.57 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 2.71 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 2.75 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 2.75 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 2.49 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 2.76 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 2.78 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 2.64 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 2.68 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 2.91 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 2.92 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 3.27 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 3.37 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 3.26 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 3.49 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 3.82 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 3.32 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 3.22 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 3.72 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 3.72 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 3.61 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 3.57 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 3.48 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 3.92 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 3.62 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 3.10 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 3.35 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 3.53 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 3.91 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 3.73 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 3.34 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 3.32 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 3.18 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 3.14 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 2.64 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 2.62 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 2.55 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 2.70 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 2.70 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 2.64 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 2.22 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 1.77 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 1.99 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 1.91 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 2.04 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 2.06 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 2.10 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 2.04 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 2.03 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 2.40 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 2.47 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 2.54 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 2.77 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 2.81 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 2.88 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 2.98 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 2.93 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 2.97 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 3.14 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 3.53 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 3.57 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 3.53 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 4.01 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 3.85 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 4.81 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 5.02 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 4.77 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 5.00 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 3.94 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 3.81 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 4.15 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 3.63 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 3.60 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 4.02 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 4.00 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 4.54 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 4.34 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 4.37 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 4.24 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 3.88 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 3.76 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 3.88 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 3.40 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 3.39 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 3.32 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 3.08 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 3.33 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 3.35 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 2.95 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 3.00 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 3.59 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 3.97 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 3.66 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 3.07 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 3.14 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 3.77 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 3.68 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 3.72 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 3.40 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 3.36 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 3.52 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 3.22 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 2.75 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 3.05 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 2.91 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 2.94 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 2.72 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 2.74 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 3.17 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 3.22 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 3.56 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 4.62 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 4.60 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 4.27 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 4.03 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 4.81 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 3.90 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 4.57 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 5.16 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 5.06 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 4.83 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2018: low AUD 1.46 per share, central AUD 1.55 per share, high AUD 1.67 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 1.36 per share, central AUD 1.49 per share, high AUD 1.68 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 1.07 per share, central AUD 1.16 per share, high AUD 1.29 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 1.26 per share, central AUD 1.36 per share, high AUD 1.51 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 2.04 per share, central AUD 2.22 per share, high AUD 2.47 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.