# Safran (SAF.PA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SAF.PA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 317.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 42.58 per share, central EUR 49.38 per share, high EUR 55.24 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 49.38 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.8% at the stated quote. About 3.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FR 10-year bond 4.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.35×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.20×

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 32.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 29.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 32.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 47.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 14.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 41.8%

- FY2017: 29.7%

- FY2018: 16.5%

- FY2019: 23.5%

- FY2020: 6.0%

- FY2021: 5.8%

- FY2022: 28.4%

- FY2023: 30.6%

- FY2024: 93.6%

- FY2025: 39.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.20×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 9.0B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 7.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 36.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 55.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 11.31×

- FY2022: 0.85×

- FY2023: 1.10×

- FY2024: 0.65×

- FY2025: 1.01×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.7% vs 39.4%

- Per-share earnings: 4.50 to 8.05 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: EUR 95B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 10B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.5%

- Per-share value change: EUR 3.55

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 4.50

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 8.05

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.03

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 20B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 18B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 39.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 4.50

- FY2017: EUR 10.92

- FY2018: EUR 2.96

- FY2019: EUR 5.68

- FY2020: EUR 0.81

- FY2021: EUR 0.10

- FY2022: EUR -5.76

- FY2023: EUR 8.05

- FY2024: EUR -1.60

- FY2025: EUR 17.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 2.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.17×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.80×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.89×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.4%

- FY2017: 5.0%

- FY2018: -4.4%

- FY2019: -1.6%

- FY2020: -3.8%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: -12.8%

- FY2023: -1.6%

- FY2024: -9.8%

- FY2025: 2.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 31.2% a year for ten years · "Safran Lifts 2028 Outlook On Strong Civil Engines Aftermarket, Defense Demand" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales +12.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.861Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 31.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-31: Safran Lifts 2025 Outlook After Earnings Rise on Civil Engine Aftermarket Activities ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/af38ff79-8c9e-3c02-88fe-c5400f6cc47e/safran-lifts-2025-outlook.html))

- 2025-10-24: Safran Raises Outlook, Forecasts Residual Tariff Hit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/be2ad761-f885-36c5-aa08-fcdf730e7b8b/safran-raises-outlook%2C.html))

- 2026-02-13: GE Aerospace Partner Safran Rises On Rosy Guidance For 2026 And Beyond ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3c5615f9-c016-36a0-ab9b-2b113ebd6f66/ge-aerospace-partner-safran.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +12.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: EUR 17B 

- FY2017: EUR 17B 

- FY2018: EUR 21B 

- FY2019: EUR 25B 

- FY2020: EUR 17B 

- FY2021: EUR 15B 

- FY2022: EUR 20B 

- FY2023: EUR 24B 

- FY2024: EUR 28B 

- FY2025: EUR 31B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 14.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 48.3% 

- FY2017: 47.1% 

- FY2018: 43.8% 

- FY2019: 46.7% 

- FY2020: 46.5% 

- FY2021: 49.4% 

- FY2022: 47.0% 

- FY2023: 47.4% 

- FY2024: 48.5% 

- FY2025: 14.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aerospace & defense; annual sales are EUR 31.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2025: revenue 31189000000; grossProfit 4474000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SAF.PA: Safran SA, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the aerospace and defense businesses in France, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East. The company operates through three segments: Aerospace Propulsion; Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems; and Aircraft Interiors. The Aerospace Propulsion segment designs, develops, produces, and markets propulsion and mechanical power transmission systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, civil and military helicopters, and drones; and offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, as well as sells spare parts. The Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems segment provides landing gears and brakes; nacelles and reversers; avionics, such as flight controls and onboard information systems; security systems, including evacuation slides and oxygen masks; onboard computers and fuel systems; electrical power management systems and related engineering services; optronic equipment and sights, navigation equipment and sensors, infantry, and drones; MRO services; and sells spare parts. The Aircraft Interiors segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets aircraft seats for passengers and crew; cabin equipment, overhead bins, class dividers, passenger service units, cabin interior solutions, chilling systems, galleys, electrical inserts, and trolleys; and cabin equipment and passenger comfort-focused solutions such as water distribution, lavatories, air systems, and in-flight entertainment and connectivity (IFEC) solutions. The company's products and services are used in commercial civil and military aircrafts, and helicopters. Safran SA was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.3% to 48.5% during 2023–25; it earns 29.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 47.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 48.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 14.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.41755086760669113],[2017,0.29707746807122215],[2018,0.16467957459712207],[2019,0.2348269266330307],[2020,0.05950875862516278],[2021,0.0581486850279561],[2022,0.2841996830427892],[2023,0.3055702306805548],[2024,0.935502824858757],[2025,0.39355352488231654]]; median 0.2906385755570057. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 1.4 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2016: growth capex 17000000; upkeep 726000000; owner earnings 1908000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00890985324947589.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 764000000; owner earnings 4574000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 806000000; owner earnings 1686000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1162000000; owner earnings 2490200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 525000000; owner earnings 1041400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 756000000; owner earnings 486200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 874000000; owner earnings 3790000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1238000000; owner earnings 7260400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,612000000],[2017,340000000],[2018,695000000],[2019,785000000],[2020,183000000],[2021,183000000],[2022,213000000],[2023,564000000],[2024,911000000],[2025,1216000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 1358000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 16.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SAF.PA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 16.74 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 31.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.160Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.44565186079421815. Price 317; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -1.0734145942600894 → FY2025 17.379314967170224. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 62.63 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 64.77 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 68.42 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 62.70 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 67.16 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 70.03 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 76.02 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 78.80 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 80.24 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 79.93 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 81.59 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 86.44 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 90.43 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 89.53 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 85.91 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 90.94 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 90.90 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 85.98 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 97.46 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 102.15 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 104.05 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 106.05 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 112.30 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 120.70 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 114.05 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 110.35 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 105.40 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 114.50 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 119.90 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 122.25 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 129.90 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 117.70 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 128.85 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 129.85 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 132.15 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 144.45 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 141.85 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 148.45 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 137.65 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 145.95 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 124.10 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 80.14 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 84.22 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 85.86 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 89.22 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 89.44 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 97.02 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 84.44 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 90.52 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 122.30 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 115.95 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 104.10 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 113.25 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 116.05 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 124.18 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 122.36 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 116.92 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 110.30 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 106.26 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 109.66 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 116.04 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 98.78 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 107.66 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 106.62 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 114.70 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 107.26 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 103.18 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 96.25 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 94.21 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 106.98 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 101.90 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 94.01 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 112.72 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 117.42 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 116.92 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 131.80 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 133.96 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 136.54 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 140.94 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 135.44 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 143.46 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 150.96 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 148.30 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 148.64 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 147.02 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 161.02 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 159.46 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 173.42 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 193.70 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 210.05 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 204.20 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 214.10 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 197.40 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 203.10 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 197.95 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 211.10 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 207.80 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 220.50 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 212.10 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 239.90 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 250.10 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 242.00 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 233.00 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 261.40 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 275.90 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 289.50 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 284.90 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 300.10 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 307.90 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 290.30 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 297.40 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 301.00 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 340.00 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 279.40 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 273.00 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 305.70 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 345.00 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 338.40 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 337.00 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 334.40 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 312.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 48.28 per share, central EUR 59.34 per share, high EUR 68.57 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 68.93 per share, central EUR 83.12 per share, high EUR 94.39 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 52.47 per share, central EUR 65.82 per share, high EUR 76.10 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 72.19 per share, central EUR 86.71 per share, high EUR 100.25 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 49.65 per share, central EUR 55.41 per share, high EUR 63.08 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 42.78 per share, central EUR 47.08 per share, high EUR 52.80 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 45.75 per share, central EUR 50.02 per share, high EUR 55.71 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 54.39 per share, central EUR 62.92 per share, high EUR 70.93 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 40.05 per share, central EUR 46.21 per share, high EUR 51.44 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 42.91 per share, central EUR 49.65 per share, high EUR 55.47 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:22.024Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.