# AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-B.ST)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SAGA-B.ST

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:18.261Z. Financial observations: FY2006–FY2025.

Listing currency: SEK. Reporting currency: SEK.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: SEK 166.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low SEK 104.37 per share, central SEK 117.98 per share, high SEK 136.09 per share. Buy at or below the central value SEK 117.98 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:18.261Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.8% at the stated quote. About 7.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; SE 10-year bond 3.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.03×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.85×

- FY2017: 0.83×

- FY2018: 0.83×

- FY2019: 0.83×

- FY2020: 0.82×

- FY2021: 0.82×

- FY2022: 0.81×

- FY2023: 0.78×

- FY2024: 0.79×

- FY2025: 0.79×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 10.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 10.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 93.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 82.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.7%

- FY2017: 5.5%

- FY2018: 5.4%

- FY2019: 5.3%

- FY2020: 4.9%

- FY2021: 4.5%

- FY2022: 4.0%

- FY2023: 3.9%

- FY2024: 4.9%

- FY2025: 4.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.82×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: SEK 18B

- Net income, five-year total: SEK 22B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -18.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -13.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 1.15×

- FY2023: -253.05×

- FY2024: 0.98×

- FY2025: 0.97×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.5% vs 4.8%

- Per-share earnings: 6.68 to 8.71 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Market cap gain: SEK 66B

- Cumulative retained earnings: SEK 25B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.4%

- Per-share value change: SEK 2.03

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: SEK 6.68

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: SEK 8.71

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: SEK 58B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: SEK 38B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: SEK 7.75

- FY2017: SEK 6.68

- FY2018: SEK 6.20

- FY2019: SEK 12.89

- FY2020: SEK 8.38

- FY2021: SEK 22.09

- FY2022: SEK 6.11

- FY2023: SEK -0.03

- FY2024: SEK 15.52

- FY2025: SEK 8.71

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.42×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.89×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.4%

- FY2017: 6.6%

- FY2018: 4.7%

- FY2019: 5.7%

- FY2020: 2.5%

- FY2021: 11.9%

- FY2022: -0.7%

- FY2023: -4.9%

- FY2024: 2.3%

- FY2025: 0.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 53% since Nov 2021 · sales +6.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.184Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +6.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300LJX28T6OM8DT95/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/sagax-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/sagax-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: SEK 1.6B 

- FY2017: SEK 1.9B 

- FY2018: SEK 2.2B 

- FY2019: SEK 2.6B 

- FY2020: SEK 2.9B 

- FY2021: SEK 3.1B 

- FY2022: SEK 3.7B 

- FY2023: SEK 4.3B 

- FY2024: SEK 5.1B 

- FY2025: SEK 5.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 82.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300LJX28T6OM8DT95/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/sagax-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/sagax-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: 93.0% 

- FY2017: 93.3% 

- FY2018: 93.2% 

- FY2019: 93.5% 

- FY2020: 93.1% 

- FY2021: 92.8% 

- FY2022: 92.9% 

- FY2023: 82.2% 

- FY2024: 82.8% 

- FY2025: 82.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in real estate services; annual sales are SEK 5.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: revenue 5402000000; grossProfit 4442000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 82.2% to 82.8% during 2023–25; it earns 4.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 82.2%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300LJX28T6OM8DT95/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/sagax-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/sagax-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 82.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 82.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.057036588393895485],[2017,0.055460976820188586],[2018,0.05434352342549821],[2019,0.05292178836663279],[2020,0.049263427259264],[2021,0.04549115290901495],[2022,0.04029147363307069],[2023,0.03852822926392409],[2024,0.048660940962686514],[2025,0.04825802810505637]]; median 0.048962184110975256. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.8% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2000000; owner earnings 975000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2000000; owner earnings 1166000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 25000000; owner earnings 1565000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 25000000; owner earnings 1786000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 10000000; owner earnings 2468200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 16000000; owner earnings 2285000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2022: growth capex 45000000; upkeep 13000000; owner earnings 3138000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.014340344168260038.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: growth capex 75456123.31373137; upkeep 184543876.68626863; owner earnings 3289656123.313731. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.022937389345644744.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300LJX28T6OM8DT95/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/sagax-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/sagax-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: growth capex 37000000; upkeep 14000000; owner earnings 5145800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00719032997784601.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: growth capex 32000000; upkeep 15000000; owner earnings 3932400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.008137524158274845.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Dividend observations: [[2016,299000000],[2017,386000000],[2018,479000000],[2019,560000000],[2020,679000000],[2021,792000000],[2022,935000000],[2023,1111000000],[2024,1301000000],[2025,1437000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: cash repurchases 6000000 SEK.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 30.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SAGA-B.ST SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 30.84 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0643425654965174. Price 166.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.406822488945041 → FY2025 8.462071632370286. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (SEK per share)

- 2016-10: SEK 79.75 per share

- 2016-11: SEK 82.75 per share

- 2016-12: SEK 81.75 per share

- 2017-01: SEK 79.45 per share

- 2017-02: SEK 87.30 per share

- 2017-03: SEK 85.75 per share

- 2017-04: SEK 92.05 per share

- 2017-05: SEK 94.00 per share

- 2017-06: SEK 101.00 per share

- 2017-07: SEK 101.70 per share

- 2017-08: SEK 100.00 per share

- 2017-09: SEK 103.80 per share

- 2017-10: SEK 101.80 per share

- 2017-11: SEK 96.95 per share

- 2017-12: SEK 98.20 per share

- 2018-01: SEK 100.00 per share

- 2018-02: SEK 99.20 per share

- 2018-03: SEK 99.60 per share

- 2018-04: SEK 102.40 per share

- 2018-05: SEK 103.00 per share

- 2018-06: SEK 111.00 per share

- 2018-07: SEK 114.60 per share

- 2018-08: SEK 120.00 per share

- 2018-09: SEK 124.60 per share

- 2018-10: SEK 127.60 per share

- 2018-11: SEK 127.20 per share

- 2018-12: SEK 129.60 per share

- 2019-01: SEK 147.00 per share

- 2019-02: SEK 152.40 per share

- 2019-03: SEK 175.60 per share

- 2019-04: SEK 167.40 per share

- 2019-05: SEK 86.60 per share

- 2019-06: SEK 87.50 per share

- 2019-07: SEK 94.80 per share

- 2019-08: SEK 111.80 per share

- 2019-09: SEK 113.00 per share

- 2019-10: SEK 111.00 per share

- 2019-11: SEK 127.00 per share

- 2019-12: SEK 136.20 per share

- 2020-01: SEK 148.40 per share

- 2020-02: SEK 130.00 per share

- 2020-03: SEK 100.00 per share

- 2020-04: SEK 105.00 per share

- 2020-05: SEK 122.60 per share

- 2020-06: SEK 126.00 per share

- 2020-07: SEK 132.80 per share

- 2020-08: SEK 135.60 per share

- 2020-09: SEK 156.80 per share

- 2020-10: SEK 140.00 per share

- 2020-11: SEK 157.20 per share

- 2020-12: SEK 169.60 per share

- 2021-01: SEK 165.80 per share

- 2021-02: SEK 177.60 per share

- 2021-03: SEK 188.80 per share

- 2021-04: SEK 224.00 per share

- 2021-05: SEK 238.00 per share

- 2021-06: SEK 254.20 per share

- 2021-07: SEK 302.40 per share

- 2021-08: SEK 321.80 per share

- 2021-09: SEK 273.80 per share

- 2021-10: SEK 336.00 per share

- 2021-11: SEK 353.20 per share

- 2021-12: SEK 305.00 per share

- 2022-01: SEK 269.00 per share

- 2022-02: SEK 260.00 per share

- 2022-03: SEK 287.00 per share

- 2022-04: SEK 253.40 per share

- 2022-05: SEK 266.00 per share

- 2022-06: SEK 188.70 per share

- 2022-07: SEK 260.60 per share

- 2022-08: SEK 230.20 per share

- 2022-09: SEK 184.20 per share

- 2022-10: SEK 203.60 per share

- 2022-11: SEK 230.70 per share

- 2022-12: SEK 236.50 per share

- 2023-01: SEK 259.10 per share

- 2023-02: SEK 258.10 per share

- 2023-03: SEK 238.80 per share

- 2023-04: SEK 251.00 per share

- 2023-05: SEK 213.80 per share

- 2023-06: SEK 213.00 per share

- 2023-07: SEK 233.90 per share

- 2023-08: SEK 228.10 per share

- 2023-09: SEK 208.50 per share

- 2023-10: SEK 201.50 per share

- 2023-11: SEK 237.90 per share

- 2023-12: SEK 277.40 per share

- 2024-01: SEK 254.30 per share

- 2024-02: SEK 244.90 per share

- 2024-03: SEK 282.40 per share

- 2024-04: SEK 278.20 per share

- 2024-05: SEK 276.60 per share

- 2024-06: SEK 271.20 per share

- 2024-07: SEK 264.40 per share

- 2024-08: SEK 270.60 per share

- 2024-09: SEK 289.20 per share

- 2024-10: SEK 254.80 per share

- 2024-11: SEK 241.60 per share

- 2024-12: SEK 226.20 per share

- 2025-01: SEK 244.20 per share

- 2025-02: SEK 224.20 per share

- 2025-03: SEK 210.60 per share

- 2025-04: SEK 219.20 per share

- 2025-05: SEK 209.80 per share

- 2025-06: SEK 216.00 per share

- 2025-07: SEK 207.60 per share

- 2025-08: SEK 205.00 per share

- 2025-09: SEK 196.30 per share

- 2025-10: SEK 213.20 per share

- 2025-11: SEK 202.00 per share

- 2025-12: SEK 197.60 per share

- 2026-01: SEK 196.50 per share

- 2026-02: SEK 191.00 per share

- 2026-03: SEK 174.00 per share

- 2026-04: SEK 183.40 per share

- 2026-05: SEK 166.60 per share

- 2026-06: SEK 154.20 per share

- 2026-07: SEK 167.30 per share

- 2026-08: SEK 165.50 per share

- 2026-09: SEK 157.00 per share

- 2026-10: SEK 166.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (SEK per share)

- FY2016: low SEK 31.60 per share, central SEK 35.85 per share, high SEK 41.50 per share

- FY2017: low SEK 28.23 per share, central SEK 31.98 per share, high SEK 36.97 per share

- FY2018: low SEK 31.74 per share, central SEK 35.88 per share, high SEK 41.38 per share

- FY2019: low SEK 56.54 per share, central SEK 64.15 per share, high SEK 74.28 per share

- FY2020: low SEK 51.23 per share, central SEK 58.07 per share, high SEK 67.18 per share

- FY2021: low SEK 64.35 per share, central SEK 71.74 per share, high SEK 81.57 per share

- FY2022: low SEK 75.76 per share, central SEK 85.00 per share, high SEK 97.30 per share

- FY2023: low SEK 79.67 per share, central SEK 90.45 per share, high SEK 104.80 per share

- FY2024: low SEK 140.04 per share, central SEK 159.02 per share, high SEK 184.29 per share

- FY2025: low SEK 100.14 per share, central SEK 113.49 per share, high SEK 131.25 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:05.101Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300LJX28T6OM8DT95/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/sagax-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/sagax-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml); period 2024-12-31, filed 2025-05-08.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.