# Saia (SAIA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SAIA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:45.247Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $341.46 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $91.09 per share, central $129.87 per share, high $152.45 per share. Buy at or below the central value $129.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:45.247Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.7% at the stated quote. About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.28×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.15×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.11×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 15.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.5%

- FY2017: 13.6%

- FY2018: 13.6%

- FY2019: 11.3%

- FY2020: 12.7%

- FY2021: 20.2%

- FY2022: 23.4%

- FY2023: 19.8%

- FY2024: 14.1%

- FY2025: 9.0%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.29×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $464M

- Net income, five-year total: $1.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 8.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.42×

- FY2024: -0.69×

- FY2025: -0.18×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.6% vs 14.1%

- Per-share earnings: 2.16 to 13.26 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: $7.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 25.5%

- Per-share value change: $11.10

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.16

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $13.26

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.31

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.87

- FY2017: $3.49

- FY2018: $3.99

- FY2019: $4.30

- FY2020: $5.20

- FY2021: $9.48

- FY2022: $13.40

- FY2023: $13.26

- FY2024: $13.51

- FY2025: $9.52

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.33×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -12.2%

- FY2017: -6.9%

- FY2018: -13.4%

- FY2019: -11.2%

- FY2020: -11.0%

- FY2021: -7.0%

- FY2022: -5.3%

- FY2023: -8.6%

- FY2024: -7.0%

- FY2025: -9.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 42% since Mar 2024 · "Saia’s Q3 margin guidance disappoints investors" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +4.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:32.717Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-25: Saia’s shares sag 30% as tariffs tank demand, exacerbate growing pains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saia-shares-sag-30-tariffs-201138561.html))

- 2025-07-26: Earnings call transcript: Saia Inc. beats Q2 2025 forecasts, stock surges ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-saia-inc-beats-q2-2025-forecasts-stock-surges-93CH-4154035))

- 2025-12-02: Saia’s shares up after tonnage turns positive in November ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saia-shares-tonnage-turns-positive-191949238.html))

- 2026-02-10: Saia shares fall as fourth quarter earnings miss estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saia-shares-fall-fourth-quarter-131410831.html))

- 2026-03-17: Saia Faces Oil Price Shock And Tests Resilience Of Margin Story ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saia-faces-oil-price-shock-020806480.html))

- 2026-07-30: Saia’s Q3 margin guidance disappoints investors ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/saia-q3-margin-guidance-disappoints-163232017.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177702/000119312526067030/saia-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: $1.4B 

- FY2018: $1.7B 

- FY2019: $1.8B 

- FY2020: $1.8B 

- FY2021: $2.3B 

- FY2022: $2.8B 

- FY2023: $2.9B 

- FY2024: $3.2B 

- FY2025: $3.2B 

- FY2026: $3.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 16%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177702/000119312526067030/saia-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 12.8% 

- FY2017: 12.5% 

- FY2018: 13.9% 

- FY2019: 14.0% 

- FY2020: 15.6% 

- FY2021: 19.7% 

- FY2022: 21.2% 

- FY2023: 20.8% 

- FY2024: 20.1% 

- FY2025: 16.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in trucking; annual sales are USD 3.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177702/000119312526067030/saia-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 3234286000; grossProfit 516617000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SAIA.US: Saia, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 100 and 10,000 pounds. It also offers other value-added services, including brokered truckload, expedited transportation, and other logistics services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated 213 owned and leased terminals; and owned approximately 7,700 tractors and 26,500 trailers. The company was formerly known as SCS Transportation, Inc. and changed its name to Saia, Inc. in July 2002. Saia, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 16% to 20.8% during 2023–25; it earns 13.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 20.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177702/000119312526067030/saia-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 16%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09469304801808502],[2017,0.13557405326481387],[2018,0.13563892600974103],[2019,0.11327222428225388],[2020,0.12744476081385656],[2021,0.20208586580423019],[2022,0.23415894595838743],[2023,0.19780899727009357],[2024,0.14083009554999876],[2025,0.0898220357362722]]; median 0.13560648963727745. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 21% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177702/000119312526067030/saia-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.19735492226168172],[2022,0.21165864450475044],[2023,0.20785907567519357]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 5 of 10 years; bought back USD 8.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 11709982.196981654; upkeep 107655017.80301835; owner earnings 16608982.196981654. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7050391202845474.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 68143827.28562701; upkeep 118552172.71437299; owner earnings 59705827.28562701. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1413262387209444.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 118021907.81222044; upkeep 105650092.18777956; owner earnings 101483907.81222044. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1629617971609931.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 70015613.23325306; upkeep 217639386.76674694; owner earnings 15214613.233253062. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.60186612435385.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 20514393.67376554; upkeep 210627606.32623446; owner earnings 62367393.67376554. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3289281861139372.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 144046000; upkeep 141700000; owner earnings 253235000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5688234248820265.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 210226000; upkeep 157203000; owner earnings 357422000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.58817308391761.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 56587088.72253382; upkeep 383291911.2774662; owner earnings 150410088.72253382. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.37621870449742095.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,2927000],[2020,3786000],[2021,3678000],[2022,4511000],[2023,9216000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177702/000119312526067030/saia-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 8666000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SAIA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.153 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 18.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.26184263639784755. Price 341.46; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.316673864394802 → FY2025 -1.713472646243398. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $35.65 per share

- 2016-11: $41.75 per share

- 2016-12: $44.15 per share

- 2017-01: $48.05 per share

- 2017-02: $48.35 per share

- 2017-03: $44.30 per share

- 2017-04: $48.15 per share

- 2017-05: $46.20 per share

- 2017-06: $51.30 per share

- 2017-07: $54.35 per share

- 2017-08: $56.55 per share

- 2017-09: $62.65 per share

- 2017-10: $64.80 per share

- 2017-11: $65.80 per share

- 2017-12: $70.75 per share

- 2018-01: $75.55 per share

- 2018-02: $72.65 per share

- 2018-03: $75.15 per share

- 2018-04: $66.05 per share

- 2018-05: $82.40 per share

- 2018-06: $80.85 per share

- 2018-07: $75.35 per share

- 2018-08: $79.25 per share

- 2018-09: $76.45 per share

- 2018-10: $62.86 per share

- 2018-11: $60.31 per share

- 2018-12: $55.82 per share

- 2019-01: $59.97 per share

- 2019-02: $66.16 per share

- 2019-03: $61.10 per share

- 2019-04: $64.39 per share

- 2019-05: $59.00 per share

- 2019-06: $64.67 per share

- 2019-07: $76.30 per share

- 2019-08: $85.54 per share

- 2019-09: $93.70 per share

- 2019-10: $89.20 per share

- 2019-11: $94.90 per share

- 2019-12: $93.12 per share

- 2020-01: $87.10 per share

- 2020-02: $87.31 per share

- 2020-03: $73.54 per share

- 2020-04: $92.52 per share

- 2020-05: $108.44 per share

- 2020-06: $111.18 per share

- 2020-07: $119.45 per share

- 2020-08: $134.20 per share

- 2020-09: $126.14 per share

- 2020-10: $147.66 per share

- 2020-11: $174.54 per share

- 2020-12: $180.80 per share

- 2021-01: $176.75 per share

- 2021-02: $200.53 per share

- 2021-03: $230.58 per share

- 2021-04: $234.50 per share

- 2021-05: $230.16 per share

- 2021-06: $209.49 per share

- 2021-07: $226.00 per share

- 2021-08: $240.13 per share

- 2021-09: $238.03 per share

- 2021-10: $312.64 per share

- 2021-11: $331.18 per share

- 2021-12: $337.03 per share

- 2022-01: $284.28 per share

- 2022-02: $287.23 per share

- 2022-03: $243.82 per share

- 2022-04: $205.96 per share

- 2022-05: $197.59 per share

- 2022-06: $188.00 per share

- 2022-07: $237.85 per share

- 2022-08: $206.83 per share

- 2022-09: $190.00 per share

- 2022-10: $198.86 per share

- 2022-11: $243.59 per share

- 2022-12: $209.68 per share

- 2023-01: $272.78 per share

- 2023-02: $270.87 per share

- 2023-03: $272.08 per share

- 2023-04: $297.77 per share

- 2023-05: $284.16 per share

- 2023-06: $342.41 per share

- 2023-07: $423.14 per share

- 2023-08: $426.20 per share

- 2023-09: $398.65 per share

- 2023-10: $358.49 per share

- 2023-11: $390.39 per share

- 2023-12: $438.22 per share

- 2024-01: $450.58 per share

- 2024-02: $575.40 per share

- 2024-03: $585.00 per share

- 2024-04: $396.83 per share

- 2024-05: $409.48 per share

- 2024-06: $474.29 per share

- 2024-07: $417.85 per share

- 2024-08: $375.83 per share

- 2024-09: $437.26 per share

- 2024-10: $488.61 per share

- 2024-11: $569.08 per share

- 2024-12: $455.73 per share

- 2025-01: $480.11 per share

- 2025-02: $409.44 per share

- 2025-03: $349.43 per share

- 2025-04: $244.00 per share

- 2025-05: $264.41 per share

- 2025-06: $273.99 per share

- 2025-07: $302.24 per share

- 2025-08: $296.46 per share

- 2025-09: $299.36 per share

- 2025-10: $292.50 per share

- 2025-11: $281.56 per share

- 2025-12: $326.52 per share

- 2026-01: $334.87 per share

- 2026-02: $405.39 per share

- 2026-03: $351.28 per share

- 2026-04: $448.82 per share

- 2026-05: $472.37 per share

- 2026-06: $421.16 per share

- 2026-07: $347.63 per share

- 2026-08: $355.13 per share

- 2026-09: $333.74 per share

- 2026-10: $341.46 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $8.72 per share, central $10.49 per share, high $12.22 per share

- FY2017: low $16.61 per share, central $19.44 per share, high $22.61 per share

- FY2018: low $29.62 per share, central $35.64 per share, high $41.52 per share

- FY2019: low $20.29 per share, central $23.08 per share, high $26.81 per share

- FY2020: low $29.51 per share, central $38.91 per share, high $45.53 per share

- FY2021: low $50.59 per share, central $69.55 per share, high $81.21 per share

- FY2022: low $92.25 per share, central $129.67 per share, high $151.46 per share

- FY2023: low $85.32 per share, central $118.06 per share, high $137.13 per share

- FY2024: low $84.97 per share, central $121.38 per share, high $142.58 per share

- FY2025: low $85.69 per share, central $122.41 per share, high $143.79 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177702/000119312526067030/saia-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.