# Starbucks (SBUX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SBUX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:48.069Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $96.88 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $39.89 per share, central $45.05 per share, high $51.91 per share. Buy at or below the central value $45.05 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:48.069Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.1% at the stated quote. About 6.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.25×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.18×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.14×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.09×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 44.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 19.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 27.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 2

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 32.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 50.9%

- FY2017: 51.3%

- FY2018: 28.6%

- FY2019: 66.4%

- FY2020: 13.4%

- FY2021: 47.8%

- FY2022: 41.5%

- FY2023: 47.5%

- FY2024: 35.6%

- FY2025: 19.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.94×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $16B

- Net income, five-year total: $17B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -4.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.71×

- FY2025: 0.97×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 50.9% vs 35.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.90 to 3.31 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: $19B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$14B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.2%

- Per-share value change: $1.41

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.90

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.31

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.11

- Average buyback yield: 4.3%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $2.9B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $32B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 50.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 35.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.90

- FY2017: $1.97

- FY2018: $3.24

- FY2019: $2.92

- FY2020: $0.79

- FY2021: $3.54

- FY2022: $2.83

- FY2023: $3.58

- FY2024: $3.31

- FY2025: $1.63

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.56×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -12.3%

- FY2017: -9.0%

- FY2018: -30.7%

- FY2019: -7.5%

- FY2020: -2.3%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: -4.0%

- FY2023: -6.4%

- FY2024: -7.4%

- FY2025: -9.0%

## Holders

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.9% a year for ten years · sales +2.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:33.343Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-29: Starbucks earnings disappoint as CEO Niccol's strategy faces US hurdles ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/starbucks-posts-bigger-expected-drop-200644543.html))

- 2025-06-13: Starbucks (SBUX) Jumps 4% on AI Barista Assistant Rollout With Microsoft ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/starbucks-sbux-jumps-4-ai-133114668.html))

- 2026-01-28: Starbucks delivers 4% global sales growth as turnaround plan gains momentum ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/starbucks-delivers-4-global-sales-180311518.html))

- 2026-02-15: Starbucks Legal Win And Fashion Push Shape Valuation And Brand Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/starbucks-legal-win-fashion-push-170724977.html))

- 2026-04-30: Starbucks' Traffic Rebound Powers Strong Comp Growth in Q2 FY26 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/starbucks-traffic-rebound-powers-strong-172100973.html))

- 2026-09-28: Starbucks to Close Select North America Coffeehouses, Cuts Store Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/starbucks-close-select-north-america-033006837.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +2.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922425000114/sbux-20250928.htm; observed 2025-11-14.

- FY2016: $21B 

- FY2017: $22B 

- FY2018: $25B 

- FY2019: $27B 

- FY2020: $24B 

- FY2021: $29B 

- FY2022: $32B 

- FY2023: $36B 

- FY2024: $36B 

- FY2025: $37B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 24.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922425000114/sbux-20250928.htm; observed 2025-11-14.

- FY2016: 31.6% 

- FY2017: 30.5% 

- FY2018: 29.6% 

- FY2019: 28.2% 

- FY2020: 21.5% 

- FY2021: 28.9% 

- FY2022: 26.0% 

- FY2023: 27.4% 

- FY2024: 26.8% 

- FY2025: 24.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are USD 37.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922425000114/sbux-20250928.htm (filed 2025-11-14); FY2025: revenue 37184400000; grossProfit 8981500000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SBUX.US: Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, complementary food, packaged coffees, single-serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve brands. Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.2% to 27.4% during 2023–25; it earns 44.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922425000114/sbux-20250928.htm (filed 2025-11-14); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.508953351496325],[2017,0.5129417027447402],[2018,0.2861016222691051],[2019,0.6642270251894762],[2020,0.13444917573395884],[2021,0.4781970056141362],[2022,0.41507076683610894],[2023,0.4751831703949934],[2024,0.35621532664916405],[2025,0.19929103519136912]]; median 0.4451269686155512. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 26.5% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2016: growth capex 410200000; upkeep 1030100000; owner earnings 2817700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1455797281470703.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2017: growth capex 230247870.34259343; upkeep 1289152129.6574066; owner earnings 2662647870.342593. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08647327080203372.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2018: growth capex 513006097.1669419; upkeep 1463393902.833058; owner earnings 4360806097.166942. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1176401990219706.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2019: growth capex 357300000; upkeep 1449300000; owner earnings 3599200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09927206045787954.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1483600000; owner earnings 947900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1470000000; owner earnings 4253400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2022: growth capex 311900000; upkeep 1529400000; owner earnings 3281600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0950450999512433.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2023: growth capex 883300000; upkeep 1450300000; owner earnings 4124500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21415929203539824.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2024: growth capex 100348889.41320276; upkeep 2677151110.586797; owner earnings 2676148889.413203. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03749749866690197.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922425000114/sbux-20250928.htm (filed 2025-11-14); FY2025: growth capex 477666236.74580526; upkeep 1827833763.2541947; owner earnings 1800066236.7458053. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2653603667436925.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); Dividend observations: [[2016,1178000000],[2017,1450400000],[2018,1743400000],[2019,1761300000],[2020,1923500000],[2021,2119000000],[2022,2263300000],[2023,2431800000],[2024,2585000000],[2025,2771400000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SBUX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.127 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We are highly dependent on the financial performance of our North America operating segment." (SEC filing, Nov 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922425000114/sbux-20250928.htm (filed 2025-11-14); We are highly dependent on the financial performance of our North America operating segment.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.9% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 1.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1443615840762532. Price 96.88; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.8219902206951235 → FY2025 1.5792825379415734. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $53.07 per share

- 2016-11: $57.97 per share

- 2016-12: $55.52 per share

- 2017-01: $55.22 per share

- 2017-02: $56.87 per share

- 2017-03: $58.39 per share

- 2017-04: $60.06 per share

- 2017-05: $63.61 per share

- 2017-06: $58.31 per share

- 2017-07: $53.98 per share

- 2017-08: $54.86 per share

- 2017-09: $53.71 per share

- 2017-10: $54.84 per share

- 2017-11: $57.82 per share

- 2017-12: $57.43 per share

- 2018-01: $56.81 per share

- 2018-02: $57.10 per share

- 2018-03: $57.89 per share

- 2018-04: $57.57 per share

- 2018-05: $56.67 per share

- 2018-06: $48.85 per share

- 2018-07: $52.39 per share

- 2018-08: $53.45 per share

- 2018-09: $56.84 per share

- 2018-10: $58.27 per share

- 2018-11: $66.72 per share

- 2018-12: $64.40 per share

- 2019-01: $68.14 per share

- 2019-02: $70.26 per share

- 2019-03: $74.34 per share

- 2019-04: $77.68 per share

- 2019-05: $76.06 per share

- 2019-06: $83.83 per share

- 2019-07: $94.69 per share

- 2019-08: $96.56 per share

- 2019-09: $88.42 per share

- 2019-10: $84.56 per share

- 2019-11: $85.43 per share

- 2019-12: $87.92 per share

- 2020-01: $84.83 per share

- 2020-02: $78.43 per share

- 2020-03: $65.74 per share

- 2020-04: $76.73 per share

- 2020-05: $77.99 per share

- 2020-06: $73.59 per share

- 2020-07: $76.53 per share

- 2020-08: $84.47 per share

- 2020-09: $85.92 per share

- 2020-10: $86.96 per share

- 2020-11: $98.02 per share

- 2020-12: $106.98 per share

- 2021-01: $96.81 per share

- 2021-02: $108.03 per share

- 2021-03: $109.27 per share

- 2021-04: $114.49 per share

- 2021-05: $113.88 per share

- 2021-06: $111.81 per share

- 2021-07: $121.43 per share

- 2021-08: $117.49 per share

- 2021-09: $110.31 per share

- 2021-10: $106.07 per share

- 2021-11: $109.64 per share

- 2021-12: $116.97 per share

- 2022-01: $98.32 per share

- 2022-02: $91.79 per share

- 2022-03: $90.97 per share

- 2022-04: $74.64 per share

- 2022-05: $78.50 per share

- 2022-06: $76.39 per share

- 2022-07: $84.78 per share

- 2022-08: $84.07 per share

- 2022-09: $84.26 per share

- 2022-10: $86.59 per share

- 2022-11: $102.20 per share

- 2022-12: $99.20 per share

- 2023-01: $109.14 per share

- 2023-02: $102.09 per share

- 2023-03: $104.13 per share

- 2023-04: $114.29 per share

- 2023-05: $97.64 per share

- 2023-06: $99.06 per share

- 2023-07: $101.57 per share

- 2023-08: $97.44 per share

- 2023-09: $91.27 per share

- 2023-10: $92.24 per share

- 2023-11: $99.30 per share

- 2023-12: $96.01 per share

- 2024-01: $93.03 per share

- 2024-02: $94.90 per share

- 2024-03: $91.39 per share

- 2024-04: $88.49 per share

- 2024-05: $80.22 per share

- 2024-06: $77.85 per share

- 2024-07: $77.95 per share

- 2024-08: $94.57 per share

- 2024-09: $97.49 per share

- 2024-10: $97.70 per share

- 2024-11: $102.46 per share

- 2024-12: $91.25 per share

- 2025-01: $107.68 per share

- 2025-02: $115.81 per share

- 2025-03: $98.09 per share

- 2025-04: $80.05 per share

- 2025-05: $83.95 per share

- 2025-06: $91.63 per share

- 2025-07: $89.16 per share

- 2025-08: $88.19 per share

- 2025-09: $84.60 per share

- 2025-10: $80.87 per share

- 2025-11: $87.11 per share

- 2025-12: $84.21 per share

- 2026-01: $91.95 per share

- 2026-02: $98.02 per share

- 2026-03: $89.59 per share

- 2026-04: $105.33 per share

- 2026-05: $99.16 per share

- 2026-06: $102.19 per share

- 2026-07: $105.25 per share

- 2026-08: $106.25 per share

- 2026-09: $93.96 per share

- 2026-10: $92.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $24.81 per share, central $34.92 per share, high $40.80 per share

- FY2017: low $26.51 per share, central $36.90 per share, high $43.06 per share

- FY2018: low $37.45 per share, central $50.23 per share, high $57.91 per share

- FY2019: low $41.48 per share, central $58.49 per share, high $68.39 per share

- FY2020: low $33.49 per share, central $39.15 per share, high $45.00 per share

- FY2021: low $50.34 per share, central $69.73 per share, high $81.02 per share

- FY2022: low $53.58 per share, central $75.60 per share, high $88.42 per share

- FY2023: low $51.51 per share, central $72.38 per share, high $84.54 per share

- FY2024: low $43.46 per share, central $54.53 per share, high $63.33 per share

- FY2025: low $38.67 per share, central $43.68 per share, high $50.34 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:37:33.214Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922425000114/sbux-20250928.htm); period 2025-09-28, filed 2025-11-14.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.