# Southern Copper (SCCO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SCCO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:48.368Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $201.69 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $83.38 per share, central $115.55 per share, high $134.29 per share. Buy at or below the central value $115.55 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:48.368Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.0% at the stated quote. About 7.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.17×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.29×

- FY2017: 0.39×

- FY2018: 0.41×

- FY2019: 0.38×

- FY2020: 0.39×

- FY2021: 0.55×

- FY2022: 0.44×

- FY2023: 0.42×

- FY2024: 0.49×

- FY2025: 0.52×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 19.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 14.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -6.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 42.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 49.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 15.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.2%

- FY2017: 15.5%

- FY2018: 16.4%

- FY2019: 14.0%

- FY2020: 16.7%

- FY2021: 32.6%

- FY2022: 22.4%

- FY2023: 21.5%

- FY2024: 28.6%

- FY2025: 33.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $16B

- Net income, five-year total: $16B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 102.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.94×

- FY2023: 0.93×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.5% vs 28.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.94 to 4.16 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Market cap gain: $95B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $342M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 20.4%

- Per-share value change: $3.21

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.94

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.16

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $85M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $22B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 28.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.00

- FY2017: $0.94

- FY2018: $2.00

- FY2019: $1.90

- FY2020: $2.01

- FY2021: $4.34

- FY2022: $3.37

- FY2023: $3.01

- FY2024: $4.16

- FY2025: $5.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.39×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.10×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.1%

- FY2017: -9.1%

- FY2018: -4.8%

- FY2019: -2.6%

- FY2020: -7.2%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: -0.9%

- FY2023: -6.9%

- FY2024: -5.6%

- FY2025: -2.0%

## Holders

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 14% a year for ten years · sales +17.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:33.422Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-17: AI Infrastructure Demand Could Be a Game Changer for Southern Copper (SCCO) ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-infrastructure-demand-could-game-151848142.html))

- 2026-01-30: Southern Copper (SCCO) Is Up 17.9% After Record 2025 Earnings and Dual Cash-and-Stock Dividend ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/southern-copper-scco-17-9-050937862.html))

- 2026-02-07: Southern Copper’s Higher Dividends Reflect Earnings Strength And Growth Ambitions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/southern-copper-higher-dividends-reflect-090627749.html))

- 2026-05-22: Southern Copper (SCCO) Valuation Check After Earnings Beats And Cuajone Mine Expansion Plan ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/southern-copper-scco-valuation-check-192021389.html))

- 2026-07-17: Southern Copper (SCCO) Stock Gets A Lift From Higher Metals Prices And Calmer Politics ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/southern-copper-scco-stock-gets-071054946.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +17.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001838/000110465926021492/scco-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $5.4B 

- FY2017: $6.7B 

- FY2018: $7.1B 

- FY2019: $7.3B 

- FY2020: $8.0B 

- FY2021: $11B 

- FY2022: $10B 

- FY2023: $9.9B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $13B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 56.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001838/000110465926021492/scco-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 30.8% 

- FY2017: 40.6% 

- FY2018: 42.0% 

- FY2019: 39.6% 

- FY2020: 40.7% 

- FY2021: 56.6% 

- FY2022: 45.4% 

- FY2023: 43.6% 

- FY2024: 49.7% 

- FY2025: 56.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in copper; annual sales are USD 13.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001838/000110465926021492/scco-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 13420000000; grossProfit 7605400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.6% to 56.7% during 2023–25; it earns 19.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 49.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001838/000110465926021492/scco-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 56.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09161097306074116],[2017,0.15521034683978263],[2018,0.163887916549986],[2019,0.1403512211956266],[2020,0.16747896661905431],[2021,0.32628845501270454],[2022,0.22408427826438382],[2023,0.21532270809298798],[2024,0.2860072084917617],[2025,0.3371015888300433]]; median 0.19140083735602115. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 10.5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 425348557.8576418; upkeep 693151442.1423582; owner earnings 730448557.8576418. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5823114486051715.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 352400000; upkeep 671100000; owner earnings 728500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4837336993822924.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 447100000; upkeep 674300000; owner earnings 1543000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2897602073882048.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 707500000; owner earnings 1542700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 592200000; owner earnings 1753800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 86300000; upkeep 806000000; owner earnings 3397100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0254040210768008.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 948500000; owner earnings 2486300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1008600000; owner earnings 2250200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 181400000; upkeep 845900000; owner earnings 3376700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05372108863683478.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001838/000110465926021492/scco-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 456900000; upkeep 868400000; owner earnings 4334900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10540035525617661.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Incremental return on capital 1.0258828185281323, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,139300000],[2017,456100000],[2018,1082300000],[2019,1236900000],[2020,1159600000],[2021,2473800000],[2022,2705800000],[2023,3092400000],[2024,1637200000],[2025,2485100000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 90.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SCCO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 90.056 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 45.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1889909902348258. Price 201.69; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.12466436517069429 → FY2025 5.182068743909285. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $26.85 per share

- 2016-11: $31.05 per share

- 2016-12: $30.21 per share

- 2017-01: $36.28 per share

- 2017-02: $34.67 per share

- 2017-03: $33.94 per share

- 2017-04: $33.45 per share

- 2017-05: $33.06 per share

- 2017-06: $32.75 per share

- 2017-07: $37.21 per share

- 2017-08: $38.49 per share

- 2017-09: $37.60 per share

- 2017-10: $40.62 per share

- 2017-11: $39.77 per share

- 2017-12: $44.88 per share

- 2018-01: $45.92 per share

- 2018-02: $49.87 per share

- 2018-03: $51.24 per share

- 2018-04: $49.95 per share

- 2018-05: $46.24 per share

- 2018-06: $44.33 per share

- 2018-07: $46.68 per share

- 2018-08: $41.27 per share

- 2018-09: $40.80 per share

- 2018-10: $36.26 per share

- 2018-11: $31.66 per share

- 2018-12: $29.10 per share

- 2019-01: $31.80 per share

- 2019-02: $33.68 per share

- 2019-03: $37.53 per share

- 2019-04: $36.34 per share

- 2019-05: $31.90 per share

- 2019-06: $36.74 per share

- 2019-07: $33.85 per share

- 2019-08: $29.89 per share

- 2019-09: $32.28 per share

- 2019-10: $33.65 per share

- 2019-11: $35.97 per share

- 2019-12: $40.18 per share

- 2020-01: $35.64 per share

- 2020-02: $31.82 per share

- 2020-03: $26.63 per share

- 2020-04: $30.68 per share

- 2020-05: $34.33 per share

- 2020-06: $37.61 per share

- 2020-07: $41.34 per share

- 2020-08: $45.49 per share

- 2020-09: $42.81 per share

- 2020-10: $49.50 per share

- 2020-11: $56.15 per share

- 2020-12: $61.59 per share

- 2021-01: $62.81 per share

- 2021-02: $67.46 per share

- 2021-03: $64.19 per share

- 2021-04: $65.65 per share

- 2021-05: $65.96 per share

- 2021-06: $60.83 per share

- 2021-07: $62.08 per share

- 2021-08: $59.20 per share

- 2021-09: $53.10 per share

- 2021-10: $56.74 per share

- 2021-11: $55.33 per share

- 2021-12: $58.36 per share

- 2022-01: $60.42 per share

- 2022-02: $65.63 per share

- 2022-03: $71.78 per share

- 2022-04: $58.89 per share

- 2022-05: $58.43 per share

- 2022-06: $47.11 per share

- 2022-07: $47.10 per share

- 2022-08: $44.52 per share

- 2022-09: $42.41 per share

- 2022-10: $44.42 per share

- 2022-11: $57.71 per share

- 2022-12: $57.11 per share

- 2023-01: $71.13 per share

- 2023-02: $69.69 per share

- 2023-03: $72.11 per share

- 2023-04: $72.66 per share

- 2023-05: $63.15 per share

- 2023-06: $67.85 per share

- 2023-07: $82.70 per share

- 2023-08: $76.29 per share

- 2023-09: $71.21 per share

- 2023-10: $67.05 per share

- 2023-11: $68.03 per share

- 2023-12: $81.40 per share

- 2024-01: $77.65 per share

- 2024-02: $76.47 per share

- 2024-03: $100.74 per share

- 2024-04: $110.34 per share

- 2024-05: $112.20 per share

- 2024-06: $101.90 per share

- 2024-07: $100.83 per share

- 2024-08: $96.68 per share

- 2024-09: $109.94 per share

- 2024-10: $104.13 per share

- 2024-11: $95.95 per share

- 2024-12: $87.14 per share

- 2025-01: $87.61 per share

- 2025-02: $85.03 per share

- 2025-03: $89.37 per share

- 2025-04: $85.60 per share

- 2025-05: $87.71 per share

- 2025-06: $97.61 per share

- 2025-07: $90.85 per share

- 2025-08: $93.63 per share

- 2025-09: $118.26 per share

- 2025-10: $135.25 per share

- 2025-11: $132.39 per share

- 2025-12: $140.92 per share

- 2026-01: $186.94 per share

- 2026-02: $216.14 per share

- 2026-03: $170.36 per share

- 2026-04: $169.99 per share

- 2026-05: $191.30 per share

- 2026-06: $174.26 per share

- 2026-07: $180.54 per share

- 2026-08: $208.87 per share

- 2026-09: $202.64 per share

- 2026-10: $207.42 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $4.61 per share, central $5.16 per share, high $5.89 per share

- FY2017: low $6.11 per share, central $6.79 per share, high $7.69 per share

- FY2018: low $12.92 per share, central $15.49 per share, high $17.85 per share

- FY2019: low $18.12 per share, central $22.91 per share, high $26.39 per share

- FY2020: low $28.03 per share, central $33.10 per share, high $38.04 per share

- FY2021: low $42.11 per share, central $53.78 per share, high $62.20 per share

- FY2022: low $36.49 per share, central $45.10 per share, high $52.20 per share

- FY2023: low $36.91 per share, central $47.79 per share, high $55.59 per share

- FY2024: low $50.14 per share, central $68.13 per share, high $79.23 per share

- FY2025: low $69.96 per share, central $97.56 per share, high $113.64 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001838/000110465926021492/scco-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.