# Semapa (SEM.LS)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SEM.LS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 19.34 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 34.09 per share, central EUR 37.03 per share, high EUR 40.94 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 37.03 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 30.4% at the stated quote. About 30.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; PT 10-year bond 3.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.11×

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.15×

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.16×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 6.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 61.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 55.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 10.1%

- FY2017: 11.1%

- FY2018: 11.4%

- FY2019: 10.5%

- FY2020: 9.6%

- FY2021: 15.5%

- FY2022: 25.8%

- FY2023: 17.7%

- FY2024: 12.4%

- FY2025: 6.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.77×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 871M

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 1.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -9.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.15×

- FY2022: 1.09×

- FY2023: 0.82×

- FY2024: 0.41×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.1% vs 12.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.54 to 2.91 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: EUR 234M

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR -711M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 11.2%

- Per-share value change: EUR 1.37

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 1.54

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 2.91

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 626M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 1.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: EUR 1.54

- FY2018: EUR 1.63

- FY2019: EUR 1.54

- FY2020: EUR 1.33

- FY2021: EUR 2.48

- FY2022: EUR 3.84

- FY2023: EUR 3.06

- FY2024: EUR 2.91

- FY2025: EUR 1.96

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.81×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.44×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.43×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.0%

- FY2017: -7.7%

- FY2018: -7.8%

- FY2019: -9.0%

- FY2020: -10.2%

- FY2021: -7.4%

- FY2022: -9.3%

- FY2025: -7.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 15.9% a year for ten years · sales -1.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:11.964Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 15.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: EUR 2.1B 

- FY2017: EUR 2.2B 

- FY2018: EUR 2.2B 

- FY2019: EUR 2.2B 

- FY2020: EUR 1.9B 

- FY2021: EUR 2.1B 

- FY2022: EUR 3.1B 

- FY2023: EUR 2.7B 

- FY2024: EUR 2.1B 

- FY2025: EUR 2.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 55.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 62.0% 

- FY2017: 62.2% 

- FY2018: 62.7% 

- FY2019: 61.2% 

- FY2020: 61.2% 

- FY2021: 63.2% 

- FY2022: 63.7% 

- FY2023: 58.1% 

- FY2024: 58.2% 

- FY2025: 55.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in paper & paper products; annual sales are EUR 2.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SEM.LS.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2025: revenue 2114924032; grossProfit 1170070632; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SEM.LS: Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of pulp, printing and writing papers, and tissues in Portugal, the rest of Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Other Businesses segments. The company produces and sells writing and printing thin paper, tissue paper, and moulded fibre packaging; researches, develops, produces, and sells forestry and agricultural products; and produces and sells bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP), cork, and pine wood products, as well as electric and thermal energy. It is also involved in the production and sale of cement, ready-mixed concrete, aggregates, mortars, precast concrete, and hydraulic lime. In addition, the company engages in the production of aluminium e-bike frames; and the provision of services related to the recovery of animal by-products and food products containing animal-origin substances to produce fertilizers, animal feed, and biodiesel. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Lisbon, Portugal.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 55.3% to 58.2% during 2023–25; it earns 11.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SEM.LS.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 58.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SEM.LS.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 58.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SEM.LS.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 55.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.10073685742338291],[2017,0.1112014825276201],[2018,0.11357186781117291],[2019,0.10472560771667229],[2020,0.09601101750107344],[2021,0.15462236795425302],[2022,0.25840661341418625],[2023,0.17745289926932106],[2024,0.12443581623447815],[2025,0.06110508625605704]]; median 0.11238667516939652. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SEM.LS.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 105025077; owner earnings 199206449. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SEM.LS.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 140663335; owner earnings 288791650. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SEM.LS.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 231509868; owner earnings 213179837. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SEM.LS.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2019: growth capex 3223317; upkeep 219862982; owner earnings 109023462. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.029565351722182515.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 121366525; owner earnings 161407442.36866027. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 143149977; owner earnings 227775327.46555322. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/SEM.LS (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 182756240; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 334960416.7016553. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SEM.LS.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 263992608; cash acquisitions 229509377; owner earnings 199365220.90862998. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.1512006755941913.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SEM.LS.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 302545566; cash acquisitions 150779060; owner earnings 95313576.4. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.5819263707746045.

- Source: https://cdnm.heyzine.com/flip-book/pdf/773e48f72a0f296508a599b8d4fc3e34715e1ce2.pdf (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 316763649; cash acquisitions 177569200; owner earnings 14026366.199999988. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 12.659672324824953.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,93881566],[2017,119558249],[2018,115495619],[2019,105613553],[2020,70416811],[2021,86198246],[2022,216301015],[2023,136214994],[2024,95394766],[2025,102443982]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 81.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SEM.LS SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 81.78699999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 15.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:33.432Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.23300795206265473. Price 19.34; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 11.72 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 12.15 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 13.40 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 13.15 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 13.85 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 14.30 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 14.40 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 16.57 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 16.98 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 16.41 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 15.18 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 16.21 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 17.17 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 16.93 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 17.80 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 18.38 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 19.24 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 18.52 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 18.54 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 21.55 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 22.95 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 20.10 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 17.80 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 17.12 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 16.88 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 13.96 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 13.10 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 15.26 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 15.34 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 14.52 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 14.62 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 12.44 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 12.36 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 11.98 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 12.06 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 11.70 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 12.32 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 13.68 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 13.72 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 12.58 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 11.30 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 7.75 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 9.00 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 8.29 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 8.09 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 7.65 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 7.62 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 7.63 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 6.45 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 8.96 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 9.00 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 8.75 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 11.90 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 11.80 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 12.08 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 11.70 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 11.48 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 11.62 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 12.00 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 11.70 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 12.14 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 11.58 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 11.70 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 11.90 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 11.50 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 12.06 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 13.12 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 15.82 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 13.44 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 14.28 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 14.00 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 12.22 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 12.88 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 14.34 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 12.36 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 12.12 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 14.34 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 13.68 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 13.72 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 12.82 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 13.02 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 13.20 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 13.40 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 13.60 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 13.36 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 13.56 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 13.40 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 14.30 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 13.82 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 14.90 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 15.90 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 15.56 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 14.38 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 14.96 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 14.44 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 14.44 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 14.76 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 13.78 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 14.18 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 15.02 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 15.04 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 15.28 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 16.49 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 17.62 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 16.70 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 17.16 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 17.66 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 18.26 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 18.10 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 16.86 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 20.90 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 22.40 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 23.75 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 22.20 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 23.20 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 23.75 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 20.30 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 20.10 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 21.20 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 20.35 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 19.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2018: low EUR 32.87 per share, central EUR 37.16 per share, high EUR 42.88 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 32.04 per share, central EUR 36.09 per share, high EUR 41.48 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 28.36 per share, central EUR 31.74 per share, high EUR 36.25 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 31.66 per share, central EUR 35.56 per share, high EUR 40.75 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 46.28 per share, central EUR 51.99 per share, high EUR 59.60 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 34.08 per share, central EUR 38.50 per share, high EUR 44.37 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 30.17 per share, central EUR 33.68 per share, high EUR 38.34 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 22.52 per share, central EUR 25.46 per share, high EUR 29.37 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:47:19.995Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.