# Sandfire Resources (SFR.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SFR.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 19.99 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 10.55 per share, central AUD 11.87 per share, high AUD 13.63 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 11.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.0% at the stated quote. About 7.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.58×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.27×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.33×

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: -0.01×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.18×

- FY2026: 0.32×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 12.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 12.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 46.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 33.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 18.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 17.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 30.6%

- FY2020: 16.8%

- FY2021: 52.6%

- FY2022: 6.2%

- FY2023: -0.2%

- FY2024: 2.0%

- FY2025: 7.5%

- FY2026: 19.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.60×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $797M

- Net income, five-year total: $499M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.40×

- FY2023: 2.21×

- FY2024: -3.45×

- FY2025: 2.33×

- FY2026: 1.32×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2019 to 2026 (7 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 30.6% vs 7.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.40 to 0.20 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 21.2%

- Market cap gain: $5.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $601M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 21.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2019

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -12.7%

- Per-share value change: -$0.19

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.40

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.20

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.80

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 30.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: $0.40

- FY2020: $0.26

- FY2021: $0.72

- FY2022: $0.32

- FY2023: -$0.12

- FY2024: -$0.04

- FY2025: $0.20

- FY2026: $0.78

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -11.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.88×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.05×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -14.1%

- FY2020: -21.2%

- FY2021: -25.2%

- FY2022: -8.4%

- FY2023: -5.5%

- FY2024: -12.1%

- FY2025: -15.0%

- FY2026: -11.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.9% a year for ten years · sales +39.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.261Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +39.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2019: $430M 

- FY2020: $433M 

- FY2021: $609M 

- FY2022: $923M 

- FY2023: $804M 

- FY2024: $938M 

- FY2025: $1.2B 

- FY2026: $1.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 33.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2019: 28.0% 

- FY2020: 20.7% 

- FY2021: 29.0% 

- FY2022: 75.6% 

- FY2023: 58.8% 

- FY2024: 59.4% 

- FY2025: 63.8% 

- FY2026: 33.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in copper; annual sales are USD 1.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SFR.AU.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); FY2026: revenue 1681223933; grossProfit 569019309; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SFR.AU: Sandfire Resources Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral tenements and projects. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, silver, lead, and zinc deposits. It also produces and sells copper, zinc, and lead concentrates. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.8% to 63.8% during 2024–26; it earns 12.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SFR.AU.json#2024-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 59.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SFR.AU.json#2025-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 63.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SFR.AU.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 33.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); 8-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.30591079337012966],[2020,0.16836470448722396],[2021,0.5260122715822012],[2022,0.06242595826498033],[2023,-0.001930303563682125],[2024,0.020368099285388987],[2025,0.07460230756194777],[2026,0.19140754990140033]]; median 0.12148350602458587. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/eod/AUDUSD.FOREX (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 117831872.07794918; owner earnings 58928664.3568217. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/eod/AUDUSD.FOREX (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 52670713.252008066; owner earnings 130531018.49495171. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sandfire.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2022AnnualFinancialReportandAppendix4E.pdf (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 88644000; owner earnings 172642800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sandfire.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2022AnnualFinancialReportandAppendix4E.pdf (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 206283000; owner earnings 155552200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SFR.AU.json#2024-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 221854685; owner earnings 59903315. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SFR.AU.json#2025-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 186546000; owner earnings 216828800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SFR.AU.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 209387288; owner earnings 478634703. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); Dividend observations: [[2019,20779701.027011465],[2020,17243876.96312941],[2021,33600000],[2022,42404000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SFR.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.136 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:52.020Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10026791454206563. Price 19.99; FX 1.4454626926079037; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 4.81 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 5.35 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 5.21 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 6.08 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 5.95 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 5.90 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 5.35 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 5.65 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 5.22 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 5.35 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 5.47 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 5.32 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 5.31 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 5.74 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 6.39 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 6.65 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 7.09 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 6.77 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 7.34 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 8.03 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 8.47 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 6.82 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 6.56 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 6.87 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 6.15 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 5.92 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 6.17 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 6.46 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 6.77 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 6.39 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 6.51 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 5.68 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 6.18 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 6.23 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 5.76 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 6.06 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 5.37 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 5.17 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 5.53 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 5.16 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 3.94 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 3.05 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 4.17 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 4.05 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 4.69 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 4.37 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 4.32 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 3.77 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 4.09 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 4.05 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 4.95 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 4.42 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 5.64 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 4.94 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 6.21 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 6.56 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 6.31 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 6.40 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 6.01 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 5.42 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 5.50 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 5.95 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 6.51 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 6.62 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 6.63 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 5.62 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 5.65 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 5.46 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 4.40 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 4.51 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 4.57 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 3.69 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 3.44 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 5.00 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 5.44 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 6.25 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 5.88 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 6.33 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 6.51 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 5.75 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 5.90 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 6.74 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 6.69 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 6.16 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 5.97 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 6.16 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 7.34 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 7.30 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 7.59 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 8.89 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 9.55 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 9.25 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 8.73 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 8.70 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 8.63 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 10.84 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 10.37 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 10.37 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 9.28 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 10.01 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 10.59 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 10.36 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 9.97 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 11.53 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 11.22 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 10.64 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 12.52 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 14.27 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 16.24 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 15.73 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 17.92 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 19.85 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 20.19 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 16.03 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 16.31 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 19.63 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 19.19 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 18.95 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 22.94 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 21.87 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 21.69 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2023: low AUD 5.32 per share, central AUD 5.99 per share, high AUD 6.89 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 5.99 per share, central AUD 6.74 per share, high AUD 7.74 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 7.18 per share, central AUD 8.13 per share, high AUD 9.39 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 10.60 per share, central AUD 11.93 per share, high AUD 13.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:27.709Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.