# Shoe Station Group (SHOE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SHOE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:53.925Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $13.84 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $31.35 per share, central $35.13 per share, high $40.17 per share. Buy at or below the central value $35.13 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:53.925Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 26.1% at the stated quote. About 26.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.55×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.02×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.08×

- FY2026: 0.06×

- LTM to Apr 2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 36.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 9.5%

- FY2019: 15.9%

- FY2020: 9.0%

- FY2021: 3.7%

- FY2022: 28.0%

- FY2023: 13.8%

- FY2024: 9.0%

- FY2025: 7.9%

- FY2026: 5.4%

- LTM to Apr 2026: 3.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $451M

- Net income, five-year total: $464M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 36.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 28.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.20×

- FY2023: 0.94×

- FY2024: 0.63×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 0.80×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.6% vs 7.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.74 to 2.68 (three-year endpoint medians)

- material buybacks concentrated at lower earnings yields (Spearman rho below threshold)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: $117M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $496M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 17.5%

- Per-share value change: $1.94

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.74

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.68

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.86

- Average buyback yield: 5.7%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $116M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $604M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.74

- FY2018: $0.60

- FY2019: $1.31

- FY2020: $1.50

- FY2021: $0.56

- FY2022: $5.59

- FY2023: $3.96

- FY2024: $2.68

- FY2025: $2.68

- FY2026: $1.90

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.75×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.36×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -8.8%

- FY2018: -5.2%

- FY2019: -8.6%

- FY2020: -3.8%

- FY2021: -7.4%

- FY2022: 0.9%

- FY2023: 6.0%

- FY2024: -4.7%

- FY2025: -2.6%

- FY2026: -1.6%

## Holders

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 68% since Sep 2024 · "Shoe Station Group Shares Fall 13% as FY26 Guidance Trails Estimates" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales -0.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:34.822Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 13.7% a year for ten years

- 2026-09-10: Shoe Station Group Shares Fall 13% as FY26 Guidance Trails Estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/shoe-station-group-shares-fall-104310504.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales -0.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895447/000119312526126279/scvl-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2018: $1.0B 

- FY2019: $1.0B 

- FY2020: $1.0B 

- FY2021: $977M 

- FY2022: $1.3B 

- FY2023: $1.3B 

- FY2024: $1.2B 

- FY2025: $1.2B 

- FY2026: $1.1B 

- FY2027: $1.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2027

gross margin 36.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895447/000119312526126279/scvl-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2018: 29.1% 

- FY2019: 30.0% 

- FY2020: 30.1% 

- FY2021: 28.7% 

- FY2022: 39.6% 

- FY2023: 37.1% 

- FY2024: 35.9% 

- FY2025: 35.6% 

- FY2026: 36.6% 

- FY2027: 36.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in apparel retail; annual sales are USD 1.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895447/000119312526126279/scvl-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2026: revenue 1135324000; grossProfit 415150000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); SHOE.US: Shoe Station Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails footwear in the United States. Its products include shoes, sneakers, heels, sandals, boots, work and safety shoes, and athletic shoes; and accessories for men, women and kids. It sells its products through stores, online, and mobile app. The company was formerly known as Shoe Carnival, Inc. and changed its name to Shoe Station Group Inc. in June 2026. Shoe Station Group Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Fort Mill, South Carolina.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.6% to 36.6% during 2024–26; it earns 9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895447/000119312526126279/scvl-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 36.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.09459887742812143],[2019,0.1587236370600101],[2020,0.08988764340252507],[2021,0.0372931162493735],[2022,0.27962796130557654],[2023,0.13802061023296913],[2024,0.08953413344440424],[2025,0.07874971006435807],[2026,0.05433697797943824],[2027,0.03916211355707187]]; median 0.08971088842346465. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 21832000; owner earnings 25384000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 19653000; owner earnings 23084000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 7413000; owner earnings 52565000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 18501000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 83685000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 12396000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 61717000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 31387000; cash acquisitions 70685000; owner earnings 185257000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3815510345088175.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 77293000; cash acquisitions 385000; owner earnings 103737000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0037113084049085667.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 56281000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 45861000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: growth capex 2096000; upkeep 31065000; cash acquisitions 44762000; owner earnings 73766000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6352249003605998.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895447/000119312526126279/scvl-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 44716000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 41901000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Dividend observations: [[2017,5028000],[2018,4819000],[2019,4763000],[2020,5671000],[2021,5128000],[2022,7998000],[2023,9972000],[2024,12190000],[2025,14711000],[2026,16748000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 33.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); SHOE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 33.887 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 13.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 6.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.20328381687477076. Price 13.84; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.8030481524923225 → FY2026 1.5217359723987651. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $12.69 per share

- 2016-11: $13.06 per share

- 2016-12: $13.49 per share

- 2017-01: $12.79 per share

- 2017-02: $12.67 per share

- 2017-03: $12.29 per share

- 2017-04: $12.69 per share

- 2017-05: $10.23 per share

- 2017-06: $10.44 per share

- 2017-07: $9.13 per share

- 2017-08: $10.05 per share

- 2017-09: $11.19 per share

- 2017-10: $9.39 per share

- 2017-11: $13.39 per share

- 2017-12: $13.38 per share

- 2018-01: $11.43 per share

- 2018-02: $11.68 per share

- 2018-03: $11.90 per share

- 2018-04: $12.19 per share

- 2018-05: $16.11 per share

- 2018-06: $16.23 per share

- 2018-07: $15.69 per share

- 2018-08: $22.23 per share

- 2018-09: $19.25 per share

- 2018-10: $20.37 per share

- 2018-11: $18.97 per share

- 2018-12: $16.76 per share

- 2019-01: $18.44 per share

- 2019-02: $19.07 per share

- 2019-03: $17.02 per share

- 2019-04: $17.83 per share

- 2019-05: $12.85 per share

- 2019-06: $13.80 per share

- 2019-07: $12.69 per share

- 2019-08: $15.37 per share

- 2019-09: $16.21 per share

- 2019-10: $16.60 per share

- 2019-11: $17.75 per share

- 2019-12: $18.64 per share

- 2020-01: $17.93 per share

- 2020-02: $14.96 per share

- 2020-03: $10.39 per share

- 2020-04: $11.81 per share

- 2020-05: $13.00 per share

- 2020-06: $14.64 per share

- 2020-07: $12.28 per share

- 2020-08: $16.44 per share

- 2020-09: $16.79 per share

- 2020-10: $15.49 per share

- 2020-11: $18.29 per share

- 2020-12: $19.59 per share

- 2021-01: $23.50 per share

- 2021-02: $24.48 per share

- 2021-03: $30.94 per share

- 2021-04: $29.98 per share

- 2021-05: $33.76 per share

- 2021-06: $35.80 per share

- 2021-07: $33.70 per share

- 2021-08: $38.28 per share

- 2021-09: $32.42 per share

- 2021-10: $33.87 per share

- 2021-11: $39.10 per share

- 2021-12: $39.08 per share

- 2022-01: $34.16 per share

- 2022-02: $29.16 per share

- 2022-03: $29.16 per share

- 2022-04: $30.19 per share

- 2022-05: $27.26 per share

- 2022-06: $21.61 per share

- 2022-07: $21.81 per share

- 2022-08: $23.79 per share

- 2022-09: $21.44 per share

- 2022-10: $23.98 per share

- 2022-11: $26.41 per share

- 2022-12: $23.91 per share

- 2023-01: $27.31 per share

- 2023-02: $26.35 per share

- 2023-03: $25.65 per share

- 2023-04: $23.25 per share

- 2023-05: $19.57 per share

- 2023-06: $23.48 per share

- 2023-07: $26.61 per share

- 2023-08: $23.13 per share

- 2023-09: $24.03 per share

- 2023-10: $22.88 per share

- 2023-11: $24.29 per share

- 2023-12: $30.21 per share

- 2024-01: $25.50 per share

- 2024-02: $32.77 per share

- 2024-03: $36.64 per share

- 2024-04: $33.44 per share

- 2024-05: $37.75 per share

- 2024-06: $36.89 per share

- 2024-07: $42.47 per share

- 2024-08: $40.44 per share

- 2024-09: $43.85 per share

- 2024-10: $34.27 per share

- 2024-11: $33.76 per share

- 2024-12: $33.08 per share

- 2025-01: $27.06 per share

- 2025-02: $22.14 per share

- 2025-03: $21.99 per share

- 2025-04: $17.38 per share

- 2025-05: $19.22 per share

- 2025-06: $18.71 per share

- 2025-07: $20.46 per share

- 2025-08: $20.90 per share

- 2025-09: $20.79 per share

- 2025-10: $18.33 per share

- 2025-11: $16.52 per share

- 2025-12: $16.88 per share

- 2026-01: $19.06 per share

- 2026-02: $20.19 per share

- 2026-03: $15.59 per share

- 2026-04: $18.52 per share

- 2026-05: $17.70 per share

- 2026-06: $14.83 per share

- 2026-07: $15.20 per share

- 2026-08: $13.70 per share

- 2026-09: $12.79 per share

- 2026-10: $13.84 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $10.05 per share, central $11.28 per share, high $12.88 per share

- FY2018: low $10.01 per share, central $12.84 per share, high $14.87 per share

- FY2019: low $13.65 per share, central $18.60 per share, high $21.56 per share

- FY2020: low $15.47 per share, central $21.24 per share, high $24.68 per share

- FY2021: low $22.14 per share, central $24.77 per share, high $28.28 per share

- FY2022: low $36.99 per share, central $41.56 per share, high $47.65 per share

- FY2023: low $49.76 per share, central $68.49 per share, high $80.11 per share

- FY2024: low $41.06 per share, central $46.28 per share, high $53.23 per share

- FY2025: low $33.78 per share, central $37.94 per share, high $43.48 per share

- FY2026: low $31.56 per share, central $35.37 per share, high $40.44 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895447/000119312526126279/scvl-20260131.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.