# Sherwin-Williams (SHW.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SHW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:54.420Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $336.92 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $125.32 per share, central $157.65 per share, high $184.06 per share. Buy at or below the central value $157.65 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:54.420Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.3% at the stated quote. About 6.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.14×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.14×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.16×

- FY2025: 0.16×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.16×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 31.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 25.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 48.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 23.8%

- FY2018: 25.9%

- FY2019: 25.5%

- FY2020: 35.7%

- FY2021: 33.3%

- FY2022: 30.1%

- FY2023: 37.2%

- FY2024: 35.8%

- FY2025: 31.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 31.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $12B

- Net income, five-year total: $12B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 132.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.11×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 25.9% vs 35.8%

- Per-share earnings: 4.00 to 10.26 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Market cap gain: $55B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$3.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.5%

- Per-share value change: $6.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.00

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $10.26

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.17

- Average buyback yield: 2.1%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $13B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $19B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 25.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 35.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.00

- FY2017: $6.22

- FY2018: $3.89

- FY2019: $5.50

- FY2020: $7.36

- FY2021: $6.98

- FY2022: $7.72

- FY2023: $9.25

- FY2024: $10.55

- FY2025: $10.26

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.14×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.34×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.61×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.6%

- FY2017: -0.6%

- FY2018: -4.4%

- FY2019: -3.8%

- FY2020: -6.8%

- FY2021: -1.8%

- FY2022: 0.4%

- FY2023: -4.9%

- FY2024: -2.0%

- FY2025: -3.4%

## Holders

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13% a year for ten years · sales +3.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:34.885Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-29: Paintmaker Sherwin-Williams beats first-quarter estimate, boosted by price hikes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paintmaker-sherwin-williams-beats-first-124949521.html))

- 2025-07-22: Paintmaker Sherwin-Williams cuts 2025 profit forecast on soft demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paintmaker-sherwin-williams-cuts-2025-122703303.html))

- 2025-09-17: Sherwin-Williams said to pause 401(k) matching as macro headwinds dent sales ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4495508-sherwin-williams-401k-matching-suspension?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-04-30: Paint Giant Sherwin-Williams Sees 'Little To No Recovery' In End Markets ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/paint-giant-sherwin-williams-sees-183104940.html))

- 2026-06-02: Sherwin-Williams' Growth Timeline Delayed by 'Unsupportive' Housing Market, UBS Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sherwin-williams-apos-growth-timeline-154912498.html))

- 2026-07-29: Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Is Up 11.2% After Strong Q2, Guidance Hike And 8% Price Increase ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sherwin-williams-shw-11-2-042641914.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89800/000008980026000008/shw-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $15B 

- FY2018: $18B 

- FY2019: $18B 

- FY2020: $18B 

- FY2021: $20B 

- FY2022: $22B 

- FY2023: $23B 

- FY2024: $23B 

- FY2025: $24B 

- FY2026: $24B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 49.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89800/000008980026000008/shw-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: 44.8% 

- FY2018: 42.3% 

- FY2019: 44.9% 

- FY2020: 47.3% 

- FY2021: 42.8% 

- FY2022: 42.1% 

- FY2023: 46.7% 

- FY2024: 48.5% 

- FY2025: 48.9% 

- FY2026: 49.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty chemicals; annual sales are USD 23.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89800/000008980026000008/shw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 23574300000; grossProfit 11536200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SHW.US: The Sherwin-Williams Company engages in the development, manufacture, distribution, and sale of paint, coatings, and related products to professional, industrial, commercial and retail customers. The company operates through three segments: Paint Stores Group, Consumer Brands Group, and Performance Coatings Group. The Paint Stores Group segment offers architectural paint and coatings; protective and marine products; and OEM product finishes and related products for architectural and industrial paint contractors, and do-it-yourself homeowners under the Sherwin-Williams brand. The Consumer Brands Group segment supplies a portfolio of branded and private-label architectural paints, stains, varnishes, industrial products, wood finishes products, wood preservatives, applicators, corrosion inhibitors, aerosols, caulks, and adhesives to retailers, including home centers and hardware stores, and dedicated dealers and distributors. The Performance Coatings Group segment develops and sells industrial coatings for wood finishing and general industrial applications; automotive refinish products; protective and marine coatings; coil coatings; packaging coatings; and performance-based resins and colorants. This segment serves retailers, dealers, jobbers, licensees, and other third-party distributors. The company operates in North America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, Asia, and Australia. The Sherwin-Williams Company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 46.7% to 48.9% during 2023–25; it earns 31.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 46.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 48.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89800/000008980026000008/shw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 48.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.23762237762237762],[2018,0.25855450393634055],[2019,0.255450805575503],[2020,0.35672859225258197],[2021,0.3331279308921811],[2022,0.3009355480000851],[2023,0.37210762078066684],[2024,0.3575103292880969],[2025,0.3148846918797734],[2026,0.31519349300474014]]; median 0.3150390924422568. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 4.7% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 41548000; upkeep 197478000; owner earnings 1132703000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03668040077584327.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 222800000; owner earnings 2041262000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 251000000; owner earnings 1454046000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 328900000; owner earnings 1787300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 303800000; owner earnings 2308000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 372000000; owner earnings 2065000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 63400000; upkeep 581100000; owner earnings 2020100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03138458492153854.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 265900000; upkeep 622500000; owner earnings 2388800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11131111855324849.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 446000000; upkeep 624000000; owner earnings 2681400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16633102110837622.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89800/000008980026000008/shw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 120700000; upkeep 676900000; owner earnings 2568500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04699240802024528.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Incremental return on capital 1.3263092643865597, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,312082000],[2017,319000000],[2018,322900000],[2019,420800000],[2020,488000000],[2021,587100000],[2022,618500000],[2023,623700000],[2024,723400000],[2025,789800000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89800/000008980026000008/shw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 1656400000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 6.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SHW.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 6.223 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Catastrophic events, adverse weather conditions and natural disasters (including those" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89800/000008980026000008/shw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); Catastrophic events, adverse weather conditions and natural disasters (including those

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 10.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17397632159758014. Price 336.92; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.662538441643285 → FY2025 10.25758785942492. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $81.62 per share

- 2016-11: $89.56 per share

- 2016-12: $89.58 per share

- 2017-01: $101.27 per share

- 2017-02: $102.85 per share

- 2017-03: $103.40 per share

- 2017-04: $111.56 per share

- 2017-05: $110.59 per share

- 2017-06: $116.99 per share

- 2017-07: $112.42 per share

- 2017-08: $113.09 per share

- 2017-09: $119.35 per share

- 2017-10: $131.72 per share

- 2017-11: $133.14 per share

- 2017-12: $136.68 per share

- 2018-01: $139.04 per share

- 2018-02: $133.86 per share

- 2018-03: $130.71 per share

- 2018-04: $122.55 per share

- 2018-05: $126.42 per share

- 2018-06: $135.86 per share

- 2018-07: $146.91 per share

- 2018-08: $151.86 per share

- 2018-09: $151.74 per share

- 2018-10: $131.16 per share

- 2018-11: $141.36 per share

- 2018-12: $131.15 per share

- 2019-01: $140.51 per share

- 2019-02: $144.40 per share

- 2019-03: $143.57 per share

- 2019-04: $151.61 per share

- 2019-05: $139.82 per share

- 2019-06: $152.76 per share

- 2019-07: $171.01 per share

- 2019-08: $175.58 per share

- 2019-09: $183.29 per share

- 2019-10: $190.77 per share

- 2019-11: $194.38 per share

- 2019-12: $194.51 per share

- 2020-01: $185.66 per share

- 2020-02: $172.25 per share

- 2020-03: $153.17 per share

- 2020-04: $178.79 per share

- 2020-05: $197.95 per share

- 2020-06: $192.62 per share

- 2020-07: $215.97 per share

- 2020-08: $223.68 per share

- 2020-09: $232.25 per share

- 2020-10: $229.33 per share

- 2020-11: $249.21 per share

- 2020-12: $244.97 per share

- 2021-01: $230.60 per share

- 2021-02: $226.78 per share

- 2021-03: $246.00 per share

- 2021-04: $273.87 per share

- 2021-05: $283.53 per share

- 2021-06: $272.45 per share

- 2021-07: $291.03 per share

- 2021-08: $303.67 per share

- 2021-09: $279.73 per share

- 2021-10: $316.61 per share

- 2021-11: $331.24 per share

- 2021-12: $352.16 per share

- 2022-01: $286.51 per share

- 2022-02: $263.13 per share

- 2022-03: $249.62 per share

- 2022-04: $274.96 per share

- 2022-05: $268.04 per share

- 2022-06: $223.91 per share

- 2022-07: $241.94 per share

- 2022-08: $232.10 per share

- 2022-09: $204.75 per share

- 2022-10: $225.03 per share

- 2022-11: $249.18 per share

- 2022-12: $237.33 per share

- 2023-01: $236.59 per share

- 2023-02: $221.35 per share

- 2023-03: $224.77 per share

- 2023-04: $237.54 per share

- 2023-05: $227.78 per share

- 2023-06: $265.52 per share

- 2023-07: $276.50 per share

- 2023-08: $271.72 per share

- 2023-09: $255.05 per share

- 2023-10: $238.21 per share

- 2023-11: $278.80 per share

- 2023-12: $311.90 per share

- 2024-01: $304.38 per share

- 2024-02: $332.03 per share

- 2024-03: $347.33 per share

- 2024-04: $299.61 per share

- 2024-05: $303.80 per share

- 2024-06: $298.43 per share

- 2024-07: $350.80 per share

- 2024-08: $369.37 per share

- 2024-09: $381.67 per share

- 2024-10: $358.77 per share

- 2024-11: $397.40 per share

- 2024-12: $339.93 per share

- 2025-01: $358.16 per share

- 2025-02: $362.27 per share

- 2025-03: $349.19 per share

- 2025-04: $352.92 per share

- 2025-05: $358.81 per share

- 2025-06: $343.36 per share

- 2025-07: $330.88 per share

- 2025-08: $365.83 per share

- 2025-09: $346.26 per share

- 2025-10: $344.94 per share

- 2025-11: $343.69 per share

- 2025-12: $324.03 per share

- 2026-01: $354.64 per share

- 2026-02: $362.59 per share

- 2026-03: $320.55 per share

- 2026-04: $321.61 per share

- 2026-05: $303.84 per share

- 2026-06: $344.32 per share

- 2026-07: $340.85 per share

- 2026-08: $338.81 per share

- 2026-09: $323.27 per share

- 2026-10: $324.10 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $46.51 per share, central $62.62 per share, high $73.01 per share

- FY2017: low $69.99 per share, central $102.10 per share, high $120.01 per share

- FY2018: low $81.85 per share, central $119.41 per share, high $140.35 per share

- FY2019: low $88.60 per share, central $129.25 per share, high $151.92 per share

- FY2020: low $96.52 per share, central $140.80 per share, high $165.50 per share

- FY2021: low $112.26 per share, central $163.76 per share, high $192.49 per share

- FY2022: low $122.66 per share, central $178.93 per share, high $210.31 per share

- FY2023: low $107.47 per share, central $135.61 per share, high $158.35 per share

- FY2024: low $108.65 per share, central $136.29 per share, high $159.09 per share

- FY2025: low $112.84 per share, central $141.96 per share, high $165.74 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Historical value ranges retain the original capex calculation; the current filing judgement is not backfilled into historical valuations

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:37:39.541Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89800/000008980026000008/shw-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.