# Sirius XM Holding (SIRI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SIRI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:54.997Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $27.15 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $39.80 per share, central $45.28 per share, high $52.59 per share. Buy at or below the central value $45.28 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:54.997Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 14.9% at the stated quote. About 14.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.73×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.30×

- FY2018: 0.30×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.23×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: -0.17×

- FY2025: 0.17×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.19×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 35.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 50.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 2

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 37.1%

- FY2017: 37.2%

- FY2018: 52.4%

- FY2019: 34.4%

- FY2020: 16.0%

- FY2021: 53.0%

- FY2022: 23.8%

- FY2023: 38.5%

- FY2024: -10.8%

- FY2025: 12.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.07×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -6.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.15×

- FY2022: 1.13×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.06×

- FY2025: 0.92×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 37.2% vs 12.8%

- Per-share earnings: 1.37 to 2.25 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.2%

- Market cap gain: $4.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $16B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 6.4%

- Per-share value change: $0.88

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.37

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.25

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.15

- Average buyback yield: 42.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $873M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $6.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 37.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.50

- FY2017: $1.37

- FY2018: $2.58

- FY2019: $1.98

- FY2020: $0.30

- FY2021: $3.17

- FY2022: $3.30

- FY2023: $3.48

- FY2024: -$4.93

- FY2025: $2.25

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.30×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 9.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.36×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.94×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -12.2%

- FY2017: -14.5%

- FY2018: -8.6%

- FY2019: -9.9%

- FY2020: -18.3%

- FY2021: -6.7%

- FY2022: -7.6%

- FY2023: -5.5%

- FY2024: -12.4%

- FY2025: -4.0%

## Holders

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Steven Check](https://gigainvestors.com/CHE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 5.5% a year for ten years · "Sirius XM Generates Shrinking Revenue as Spotify Hits Profitability Inflection" (finance.yahoo.com, Dec 2025) · sales +0.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:35.023Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 5.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-31: Sirius XM Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:SIRI) Shares Drop After Q2 2025 Earnings Miss Estimates ([chartmill.com](https://www.chartmill.com/news/SIRI/Chartmill-32004-Sirius-XM-Holdings-Inc-NASDAQSIRI-Shares-Drop-After-Q2-2025-Earnings-Miss-Estimates))

- 2025-12-21: Sirius XM Generates Shrinking Revenue as Spotify Hits Profitability Inflection ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sirius-xm-generates-shrinking-revenue-151358865.html))

- 2026-02-06: Sirius (SIRI) Climbs 9% on Earnings Blowout ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sirius-siri-climbs-9-earnings-080748299.html))

- 2026-03-15: Sirius XM Extends Debt Maturities As Interest Costs Rise And Shift Priorities ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sirius-xm-extends-debt-maturities-130649086.html))

- 2026-04-30: SiriusXM targets ~$1.35B 2026 free cash flow while launching YouTube audio ads this fall ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4583104-siriusxm-targets-1_35b-2026-free-cash-flow-while-launching-youtube-audio-ads-this-fall?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-05-04: Sirius XM Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y, Stock Up ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sirius-xm-q1-earnings-beat-154900094.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908937/000090893726000006/siri-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-05.

- FY2017: $5.4B 

- FY2018: $5.8B 

- FY2019: $7.8B 

- FY2020: $8.0B 

- FY2021: $8.7B 

- FY2022: $9.0B 

- FY2023: $9.0B 

- FY2024: $8.7B 

- FY2025: $8.6B 

- FY2026: $8.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 47%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908937/000090893726000006/siri-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-05.

- FY2016: 50.0% 

- FY2017: 52.1% 

- FY2018: 51.8% 

- FY2019: 50.6% 

- FY2020: 51.0% 

- FY2021: 50.6% 

- FY2022: 50.2% 

- FY2023: 49.0% 

- FY2024: 48.3% 

- FY2025: 47.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in entertainment; annual sales are USD 8.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908937/000090893726000006/siri-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: revenue 8558000000; grossProfit 4026000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SIRI.US: Sirius XM Holdings Inc. operates as an audio entertainment company in North America. It operates through two segments, Sirius XM, and Pandora and Off-platform. The Sirius XM segment provides music, sports, entertainment, comedy, and talk and news channels, as well as podcast and infotainment services on subscription fee basis; and live, curated, and exclusive and on demand programming services through satellite radio systems and streamed through applications for mobile and home devices, and other consumer electronic equipment. This segment also distributes satellite radios through automakers and retailers, as well as its website; offers advertising other ancillary services; sells radios and accessories; and offers location-based services through two-way wireless connectivity, including safety, security, convenience, maintenance and data, remote vehicles diagnostic, and stolen or parked vehicle locator services, as well as data services related to graphical weather and fuel prices. In addition, this segment provides music channels on the DISH Network satellite television service as a programming package; Travel Link, a suite of data services that include graphical weather, fuel prices, sports schedule and scores, and movie listings; graphic information related to road closings, traffic flow, and incident data for consumers with in-vehicle navigation systems; real-time weather services in vehicles, boats, and planes; music programming and commercial-free music services for office, restaurants, and other business; and wireless communications service. The Pandora and Off-platform segment operates music, comedy, and podcast streaming platform, which offers personalized experience for listener through mobile devices, vehicle speakers, and connected devices; and provides advertising services. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 47% to 49% during 2023–25; it earns 35.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 49%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 48.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908937/000090893726000006/siri-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.37106586211248804],[2017,0.37187195597711],[2018,0.524193699335404],[2019,0.3435151659536714],[2020,0.1598452278589854],[2021,0.5296292829058229],[2022,0.23778920667382059],[2023,0.38544288172270547],[2024,-0.10762730130220027],[2025,0.12764472413376796]]; median 0.3572905140330797. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 50% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908937/000090893726000006/siri-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.5063247470101196],[2022,0.502165944685105],[2023,0.4897799620239026]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 136 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 205829000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 809083000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 287970000; cash acquisitions 108000000; owner earnings 658632000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.16397624166454106.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2018: growth capex 54983000; upkeep 300720000; cash acquisitions 2000000; owner earnings 1176000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.04845493197278911.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 363000000; cash acquisitions 313000000; owner earnings 1019000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3071638861629048.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 350000000; cash acquisitions 300000000; owner earnings 343000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.8746355685131195.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 388000000; cash acquisitions 14000000; owner earnings 1509000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.00927766732935719.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 426000000; cash acquisitions 136000000; owner earnings 1372000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09912536443148688.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 650000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1277000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908937/000090893726000006/siri-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 653000000; owner earnings 741000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Dividend observations: [[2016,48079000],[2017,190000000],[2018,201000000],[2019,226000000],[2020,237000000],[2021,268000000],[2022,1339000000],[2023,65000000],[2024,143000000],[2025,365000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908937/000090893726000006/siri-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: cash repurchases 136000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 46.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SIRI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 46.352 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Depends on Apple's app store to reach customers.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908937/000090893726000006/siri-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); cribers and listeners can obtain similar content for free through Spotify, YouTube and other internet services as well as terrestrial radio stations. We also compete for the time and attention of our listeners with providers of other in-home and mobile entertainment services, and we compete for advertising sales with large scale online advertising platforms, such as YouTube, Amazon, Facebook and Google, and with traditional media outlets.

Our streaming services also compete for listeners on the basis of the presence and visibility of our apps, which are distributed via app stores operated by Apple and Google. We face significant competition for listeners from these companies, which also promote their own music and content. In addition, our competitors’ streaming products may be pre-loaded or integrated into consumer electronics products or automobiles more broadly than our streaming products, creating a significant advantage. If we are unable to compete successfully for listeners against other media providers, then our business may suffer. Additionally, the operator of an app store may reject our app or amend the terms of their license in a way that inhibits our ability to distribute our apps, negatively affects our business, or limits our ability to increase subscribers and listeners.

Competition could result in lower subscription, advertising or other revenue and an increase in our expenses and, consequently, lower our earnings and free cash flow. We cannot assure you we will be able to compete successfully with our existing or future competitors or that competition will not have an adverse impact on our operations and financial condition.

Our SiriusXM service has suffered a loss of subscribers, and our Pandora ad-supported service has similarly experienced a loss of monthly active users.

The number of subscribers to our SiriusXM service has declined for the past two years, including in 2025. Similarly, the number of monthly active users to our ad-supported Pandora service has declined consistently for several years, including in

20

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2025. This loss of subscribers to our SiriusXM service and the decline in monthly active users to our Pandora ad-supported service is likely to continue in the future.

The number of subscribers to our SiriusXM service has declined due to a variety of factors, including a decline in the rate at which new car buyers convert their trial subscriptions into self-pay subscriptions. The decline in the number of SiriusXM subscribers may have a number of collateral effects on our business.

The size of our ad-supported listener base is an important element of our Pandora service. The decline in our listener base, including the shift of listening in connected homes and vehicles, has resulted in fewer listener hours and fewer available advertising spots on our Pandora service, which may contribute to de

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 5.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.0905880182349304. Price 27.15; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.1904806587324104 → FY2025 2.0756302521008405. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $4.17 per share

- 2016-11: $4.57 per share

- 2016-12: $4.45 per share

- 2017-01: $4.72 per share

- 2017-02: $5.09 per share

- 2017-03: $5.15 per share

- 2017-04: $4.95 per share

- 2017-05: $5.25 per share

- 2017-06: $5.47 per share

- 2017-07: $5.86 per share

- 2017-08: $5.75 per share

- 2017-09: $5.52 per share

- 2017-10: $5.44 per share

- 2017-11: $5.50 per share

- 2017-12: $5.36 per share

- 2018-01: $6.11 per share

- 2018-02: $6.28 per share

- 2018-03: $6.24 per share

- 2018-04: $6.33 per share

- 2018-05: $7.10 per share

- 2018-06: $6.77 per share

- 2018-07: $7.02 per share

- 2018-08: $7.10 per share

- 2018-09: $6.32 per share

- 2018-10: $6.02 per share

- 2018-11: $6.23 per share

- 2018-12: $5.71 per share

- 2019-01: $5.83 per share

- 2019-02: $5.93 per share

- 2019-03: $5.67 per share

- 2019-04: $5.81 per share

- 2019-05: $5.31 per share

- 2019-06: $5.58 per share

- 2019-07: $6.26 per share

- 2019-08: $6.17 per share

- 2019-09: $6.26 per share

- 2019-10: $6.72 per share

- 2019-11: $6.98 per share

- 2019-12: $7.15 per share

- 2020-01: $7.07 per share

- 2020-02: $6.34 per share

- 2020-03: $4.94 per share

- 2020-04: $5.91 per share

- 2020-05: $5.82 per share

- 2020-06: $5.87 per share

- 2020-07: $5.88 per share

- 2020-08: $5.87 per share

- 2020-09: $5.36 per share

- 2020-10: $5.73 per share

- 2020-11: $6.49 per share

- 2020-12: $6.37 per share

- 2021-01: $6.26 per share

- 2021-02: $5.85 per share

- 2021-03: $6.09 per share

- 2021-04: $6.10 per share

- 2021-05: $6.25 per share

- 2021-06: $6.54 per share

- 2021-07: $6.47 per share

- 2021-08: $6.27 per share

- 2021-09: $6.10 per share

- 2021-10: $6.09 per share

- 2021-11: $6.10 per share

- 2021-12: $6.35 per share

- 2022-01: $6.36 per share

- 2022-02: $6.16 per share

- 2022-03: $6.62 per share

- 2022-04: $6.00 per share

- 2022-05: $6.40 per share

- 2022-06: $6.13 per share

- 2022-07: $6.68 per share

- 2022-08: $6.09 per share

- 2022-09: $5.71 per share

- 2022-10: $6.04 per share

- 2022-11: $6.49 per share

- 2022-12: $5.84 per share

- 2023-01: $5.79 per share

- 2023-02: $4.39 per share

- 2023-03: $3.97 per share

- 2023-04: $3.80 per share

- 2023-05: $3.56 per share

- 2023-06: $4.53 per share

- 2023-07: $5.10 per share

- 2023-08: $4.40 per share

- 2023-09: $4.52 per share

- 2023-10: $4.28 per share

- 2023-11: $4.68 per share

- 2023-12: $5.47 per share

- 2024-01: $5.09 per share

- 2024-02: $4.42 per share

- 2024-03: $3.88 per share

- 2024-04: $2.94 per share

- 2024-05: $2.82 per share

- 2024-06: $2.83 per share

- 2024-07: $3.45 per share

- 2024-08: $3.29 per share

- 2024-09: $23.65 per share

- 2024-10: $26.66 per share

- 2024-11: $26.95 per share

- 2024-12: $22.80 per share

- 2025-01: $24.01 per share

- 2025-02: $24.19 per share

- 2025-03: $22.55 per share

- 2025-04: $21.42 per share

- 2025-05: $21.68 per share

- 2025-06: $22.97 per share

- 2025-07: $21.12 per share

- 2025-08: $23.64 per share

- 2025-09: $23.28 per share

- 2025-10: $21.69 per share

- 2025-11: $21.26 per share

- 2025-12: $20.00 per share

- 2026-01: $20.35 per share

- 2026-02: $21.96 per share

- 2026-03: $23.08 per share

- 2026-04: $26.94 per share

- 2026-05: $29.52 per share

- 2026-06: $29.54 per share

- 2026-07: $29.62 per share

- 2026-08: $28.17 per share

- 2026-09: $25.88 per share

- 2026-10: $27.15 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $17.08 per share, central $19.41 per share, high $22.50 per share

- FY2017: low $17.77 per share, central $20.22 per share, high $23.48 per share

- FY2018: low $21.10 per share, central $24.01 per share, high $27.89 per share

- FY2019: low $26.13 per share, central $29.73 per share, high $34.53 per share

- FY2020: low $25.94 per share, central $29.52 per share, high $34.28 per share

- FY2021: low $30.04 per share, central $34.17 per share, high $39.68 per share

- FY2022: low $40.75 per share, central $46.37 per share, high $53.85 per share

- FY2023: low $38.64 per share, central $43.95 per share, high $51.03 per share

- FY2024: low $40.12 per share, central $45.66 per share, high $53.02 per share

- FY2025: low $37.37 per share, central $42.53 per share, high $49.39 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908937/000090893726000006/siri-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-05.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.