# J. M. Smucker (SJM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SJM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:55.682Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $125.93 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $10.42 per share, central $11.85 per share, high $13.77 per share. Buy at or below the central value $11.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:55.682Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.6% at the stated quote. About 3.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.68×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.16×

- FY2025: -0.08×

- FY2026: 0.15×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 38.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 15.8%

- FY2019: 9.1%

- FY2020: 12.8%

- FY2021: 15.5%

- FY2022: 11.7%

- FY2023: 2.4%

- FY2024: 11.4%

- FY2025: -6.6%

- FY2026: 14.4%

- LTM to Jul 2026: 15.8%

### economics: pass

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $149M

- Net income, five-year total: -$85M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.1%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: $673M

- FY2023: -$91M

- FY2024: $588M

- FY2025: -$1.1B

- FY2026: $101M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.7% vs 11.4%

- Per-share earnings: 5.79 to -1.30 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: -$3.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: -$7.09

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.79

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$1.30

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $5.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $5.12

- FY2018: $11.85

- FY2019: $4.55

- FY2020: $6.87

- FY2021: $7.82

- FY2022: $5.83

- FY2023: -$0.86

- FY2024: $7.13

- FY2025: -$11.57

- FY2026: -$1.30

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -9.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.96×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.0%

- FY2018: 0.8%

- FY2019: -3.8%

- FY2020: -2.8%

- FY2021: -4.2%

- FY2022: -3.1%

- FY2023: -8.5%

- FY2024: -2.4%

- FY2025: -13.9%

- FY2026: -9.9%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 21% since Dec 2022 · "However, unfavorable volume/mix, mainly in coffee and sweet baked goods, remained a drag." (finance.yahoo.com, Jun 2026) · sales +1.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:35.211Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 31.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-10: J.M. Smucker Issues Weak Fiscal 2026 Earnings Outlook as Fourth-Quarter Sales Miss Views ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/j-m-smucker-issues-weak-142215037.html))

- 2025-08-27: J. M. Smucker Boosts FY26 Net Sales Growth Outlook - Update ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/j-m-smucker-boosts-fy26-net-sales-growth-outlook-update))

- 2025-09-30: SJM's Pet Foods Struggles With Dog Snack Weakness and Contract Loss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sjms-pet-foods-struggles-dog-130000775.html))

- 2026-02-26: Smucker Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Up 7% on Pricing Gains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/smucker-q3-earnings-beat-estimates-165400900.html))

- 2026-06-09: JM Smucker beats quarterly estimates as coffee segment drives growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jm-smucker-beats-quarterly-estimates-150900268.html))

- 2026-08-26: JM Smucker Rises on Outlook; Intuit Down on Full-Year Forecast | Stock Movers ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/jm-smucker-rises-outlook-intuit-150528608.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +1.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000009141926000050/sjm-20260430.htm; observed 2026-06-09.

- FY2018: $7.4B 

- FY2019: $7.8B 

- FY2020: $7.8B 

- FY2021: $8.0B 

- FY2022: $8.0B 

- FY2023: $8.5B 

- FY2024: $8.2B 

- FY2025: $8.7B 

- FY2026: $9.1B 

- FY2027: $9.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2027

gross margin 38.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000009141926000050/sjm-20260430.htm; observed 2026-06-09.

- FY2018: 38.5% 

- FY2019: 37.2% 

- FY2020: 38.5% 

- FY2021: 39.2% 

- FY2022: 33.8% 

- FY2023: 32.8% 

- FY2024: 38.1% 

- FY2025: 38.8% 

- FY2026: 33.5% 

- FY2027: 38.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are USD 9.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2026-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2026: revenue 9050900000; grossProfit 3034500000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SJM.US: The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. The company operates through five segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, Sweet Baked Snacks, and Away From Home. It offers coffee, sweet baked goods, pet snacks, frozen handheld products, peanut butter, cat and dog food, fruit and specialty spreads, cookies, frozen sandwiches and snacks, hot beverages, portion control products, toppings and syrups, baking mixes and ingredients, and flour. The company provides its products under the Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', Jif, Smucker's, Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Canine Carry Outs, Hostess, and 1850 brand names. It sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, mass merchandisers, supermarket chains, national mass retailers, convenience stores, vending channels, and foodservice distributors and operators. The J. M. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.5% to 38.8% during 2024–26; it earns 12.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2024-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 38.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2025-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 38.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2026-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 33.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.15846272938390785],[2019,0.09115317174413468],[2020,0.12767767476695235],[2021,0.15541305871399558],[2022,0.11681445463613564],[2023,0.023575610587945505],[2024,0.11430542685202484],[2025,-0.06601619463320271],[2026,0.1439735656516311],[2027,0.15827109808635056]]; median 0.122246064701544. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 5.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2017-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 192400000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 818900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2018-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 321900000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1429800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2019-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 359800000; cash acquisitions 1903000000; owner earnings 600900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.1669162922283243.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2020-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 269300000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 956700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2021-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 306700000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1022100000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2022-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 417500000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 673300000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2024-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 586500000; cash acquisitions 3920600000; owner earnings 588300000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 6.664286928437872.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2026-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 317400000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 100900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); Dividend observations: [[2017,339300000],[2018,350300000],[2019,377900000],[2020,396800000],[2021,403200000],[2022,418100000],[2023,430200000],[2024,437500000],[2025,455400000],[2026,464700000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SJM.US.json#2026-04-30 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2026: cash repurchases 5600000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SJM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.2560000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Changes in our relationships with significant customers" (SEC filing, Jun 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000009141926000050/sjm-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-09); Changes in our relationships with significant customers

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 31.8% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 18.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.4548347409946424. Price 125.93; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 7.709243697478992 → FY2026 0.9456419868791003. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $131.31 per share

- 2016-11: $125.95 per share

- 2016-12: $128.06 per share

- 2017-01: $135.85 per share

- 2017-02: $141.73 per share

- 2017-03: $131.08 per share

- 2017-04: $126.72 per share

- 2017-05: $127.85 per share

- 2017-06: $118.33 per share

- 2017-07: $121.90 per share

- 2017-08: $104.76 per share

- 2017-09: $104.93 per share

- 2017-10: $106.05 per share

- 2017-11: $116.67 per share

- 2017-12: $124.24 per share

- 2018-01: $126.89 per share

- 2018-02: $126.30 per share

- 2018-03: $124.01 per share

- 2018-04: $114.08 per share

- 2018-05: $107.50 per share

- 2018-06: $107.48 per share

- 2018-07: $111.12 per share

- 2018-08: $103.38 per share

- 2018-09: $102.61 per share

- 2018-10: $108.32 per share

- 2018-11: $104.51 per share

- 2018-12: $93.49 per share

- 2019-01: $104.88 per share

- 2019-02: $105.91 per share

- 2019-03: $116.50 per share

- 2019-04: $122.63 per share

- 2019-05: $121.56 per share

- 2019-06: $115.19 per share

- 2019-07: $111.19 per share

- 2019-08: $105.16 per share

- 2019-09: $110.02 per share

- 2019-10: $105.68 per share

- 2019-11: $105.09 per share

- 2019-12: $104.13 per share

- 2020-01: $103.61 per share

- 2020-02: $102.99 per share

- 2020-03: $111.00 per share

- 2020-04: $114.91 per share

- 2020-05: $113.93 per share

- 2020-06: $105.81 per share

- 2020-07: $109.35 per share

- 2020-08: $120.18 per share

- 2020-09: $115.52 per share

- 2020-10: $112.20 per share

- 2020-11: $117.20 per share

- 2020-12: $115.60 per share

- 2021-01: $116.41 per share

- 2021-02: $112.00 per share

- 2021-03: $126.53 per share

- 2021-04: $130.99 per share

- 2021-05: $133.29 per share

- 2021-06: $129.57 per share

- 2021-07: $131.11 per share

- 2021-08: $123.67 per share

- 2021-09: $120.03 per share

- 2021-10: $122.86 per share

- 2021-11: $126.47 per share

- 2021-12: $135.82 per share

- 2022-01: $140.58 per share

- 2022-02: $134.75 per share

- 2022-03: $135.41 per share

- 2022-04: $136.93 per share

- 2022-05: $125.37 per share

- 2022-06: $128.01 per share

- 2022-07: $132.32 per share

- 2022-08: $139.99 per share

- 2022-09: $137.41 per share

- 2022-10: $150.66 per share

- 2022-11: $154.01 per share

- 2022-12: $158.46 per share

- 2023-01: $152.80 per share

- 2023-02: $147.89 per share

- 2023-03: $157.37 per share

- 2023-04: $154.41 per share

- 2023-05: $146.59 per share

- 2023-06: $147.67 per share

- 2023-07: $150.65 per share

- 2023-08: $144.95 per share

- 2023-09: $122.91 per share

- 2023-10: $113.84 per share

- 2023-11: $109.73 per share

- 2023-12: $126.38 per share

- 2024-01: $131.55 per share

- 2024-02: $120.17 per share

- 2024-03: $125.87 per share

- 2024-04: $114.85 per share

- 2024-05: $111.64 per share

- 2024-06: $109.04 per share

- 2024-07: $117.95 per share

- 2024-08: $114.68 per share

- 2024-09: $121.10 per share

- 2024-10: $113.51 per share

- 2024-11: $117.79 per share

- 2024-12: $110.12 per share

- 2025-01: $106.89 per share

- 2025-02: $110.53 per share

- 2025-03: $118.41 per share

- 2025-04: $116.27 per share

- 2025-05: $112.61 per share

- 2025-06: $98.20 per share

- 2025-07: $107.34 per share

- 2025-08: $110.51 per share

- 2025-09: $108.60 per share

- 2025-10: $103.55 per share

- 2025-11: $104.18 per share

- 2025-12: $97.81 per share

- 2026-01: $104.86 per share

- 2026-02: $115.95 per share

- 2026-03: $96.44 per share

- 2026-04: $98.03 per share

- 2026-05: $103.20 per share

- 2026-06: $112.50 per share

- 2026-07: $119.26 per share

- 2026-08: $131.16 per share

- 2026-09: $118.91 per share

- 2026-10: $125.93 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $79.21 per share, central $102.72 per share, high $120.09 per share

- FY2018: low $79.24 per share, central $90.10 per share, high $104.57 per share

- FY2019: low $83.91 per share, central $95.48 per share, high $110.88 per share

- FY2020: low $90.38 per share, central $102.56 per share, high $118.77 per share

- FY2021: low $97.34 per share, central $110.54 per share, high $128.12 per share

- FY2022: low $99.01 per share, central $112.64 per share, high $130.80 per share

- FY2023: low $83.05 per share, central $93.24 per share, high $106.80 per share

- FY2024: low $72.08 per share, central $82.01 per share, high $95.24 per share

- FY2025: low $64.48 per share, central $73.37 per share, high $85.20 per share

- FY2026: low $10.34 per share, central $11.76 per share, high $13.66 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:37:40.918Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000009141926000050/sjm-20260430.htm); period 2026-04-30, filed 2026-06-09.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.