# Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SMCI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:36.002Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $35.09 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $56.42 per share, central $76.19 per share, high $87.71 per share. Buy at or below the central value $76.19 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:36.002Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 20.6% at the stated quote. About 20.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.45×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.06×

- FY2026: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 10.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 7.6%

- FY2018: 7.3%

- FY2019: 9.5%

- FY2020: 9.4%

- FY2021: 29.4%

- FY2022: 16.1%

- FY2023: 35.7%

- FY2024: 20.1%

- FY2025: 18.4%

- FY2026: 14.1%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $5.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 12.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 11.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 35.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.96×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.6% vs 18.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.13 to 2.01 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- Market cap gain: $6.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 40.9%

- Per-share value change: $1.88

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.01

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.17

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $2.5M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $6.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.13

- FY2018: $0.09

- FY2019: $0.14

- FY2020: $0.16

- FY2021: $0.53

- FY2022: $0.53

- FY2023: $1.14

- FY2024: $2.01

- FY2025: $1.67

- FY2026: $3.20

### accounting: fail

- Sloan accruals exceed 10%

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 30.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.55×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -3.05×

- Accounting red flags: 2

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 10.8%

- FY2018: -2.2%

- FY2019: -12.8%

- FY2020: 6.0%

- FY2021: 7.2%

- FY2022: 22.7%

- FY2023: -0.6%

- FY2024: 37.1%

- FY2025: -4.4%

- FY2026: 30.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 97% since Mar 2024 · "Super Micro sinks after saying customers delayed decisions in quarter" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2025) · sales +77.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.479Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 5.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-16: Super Micro Computer (NasdaqGS:SMCI) Partners With DataVolt for US$20 Billion AI Infrastructure ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-computer-nasdaqgs-smci-175514049.html))

- 2025-08-05: Super Micro slides on weak Q4, soft guidance amid AI infra boomtime ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-slides-weak-q4-210637193.html))

- 2025-11-05: Super Micro shares slip as delivery delays stall AI momentum ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-shares-slip-delivery-092505670.html))

- 2026-05-29: Super Micro Computer Rallies on Dell AI Demand Signal, Compliance Update ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/super-micro-computer-rallies-dell-142145826.html))

- 2026-06-10: Super Micro stock dives on $7B share offering to fund AI server push ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/super-micro-stock-dives-7b-161400916.html))

- 2026-08-12: Super Micro targets $65B-$72B FY 2027 revenue as it guides Q1 sales of $14.5B-$15.5B ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4631194-super-micro-targets-65b-72b-fy-2027-revenue-as-it-guides-q1-sales-of-14_5b-15_5b?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +77.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000022/smci-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-31.

- FY2017: $2.5B 

- FY2018: $3.4B 

- FY2019: $3.5B 

- FY2020: $3.3B 

- FY2021: $5.2B 

- FY2022: $5.2B 

- FY2023: $7.1B 

- FY2024: $15B 

- FY2025: $22B 

- FY2026: $39B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 10.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000022/smci-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-31.

- FY2017: 14.1% 

- FY2018: 12.8% 

- FY2019: 14.2% 

- FY2020: 15.8% 

- FY2021: 15.4% 

- FY2022: 15.4% 

- FY2023: 18.0% 

- FY2024: 14.1% 

- FY2025: 11.1% 

- FY2026: 10.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in computer hardware; annual sales are USD 39.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2026: revenue 39063072000; grossProfit 4227251000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SMCI.US: Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company offers liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also provides workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. In addition, the company offers remote system management solutions, such as Server Management suite comprising Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, SuperCloud Director, and SuperDoctor 5. Further, the company identifies service requirements; creates and executes project plans; conducts verification testing; offers training; and provides technical documentation. Additionally, it provides rack level services from design to deployment for full rack and cluster level deployments of AI and HPC datacenters; help desk services and on-site product support; and warranties, maintenance, and technical support services. The company serves enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing markets through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. Super Micro Computer, Inc. has a strategic alliance with NetApp, Inc. Super Micro Computer, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.8% to 14.1% during 2024–26; it earns 15.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2024-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 14.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2025-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 11.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 10.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-31); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.07571910337021277],[2018,0.07290385763142189],[2019,0.09494794635091822],[2020,0.09358708113639698],[2021,0.29381042699533816],[2022,0.1611226248063942],[2023,0.35653351730695254],[2024,0.20139294883366693],[2025,0.18441219424203634],[2026,0.1414635064153959]]; median 0.15129306561089506. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 4.9% of cash earnings; earns 12.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2017-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2017: growth capex 13008000; upkeep 16357000; owner earnings 66854000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19457324916983276.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2018-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2018: growth capex 2978000; upkeep 21846000; owner earnings 46165000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06450774396187588.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2019-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2019: growth capex 647000; upkeep 24202000; owner earnings 71918000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00899635696209572.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2020-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 44338000; owner earnings 68442000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2021-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2021: growth capex 25545000; upkeep 32471000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 285163000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08958034527621045.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2022-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 45182000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 272452000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2023-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2023: growth capex 1889000; upkeep 34904000; cash acquisitions 2193000; owner earnings 639998000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0063781449317029115.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2024-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2024: growth capex 101562000; upkeep 22717000; cash acquisitions 296000; owner earnings 1208149000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08430913736633479.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2025-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2025: growth capex 68870000; upkeep 58344000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1048854000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.06566214172801935.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2026: growth capex 108326000; upkeep 53673000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2230453000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.048566815799301756.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-31); Incremental return on capital 0.1289747331831959, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-31); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,20100000],[2021,28387000],[2022,10081000],[2023,30466000],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SMCI.US.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-31); FY2026: cash repurchases 996000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 12.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SMCI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 12.659999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our sales are concentrated in a few large customers" (SEC filing, Aug 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000022/smci-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-31); Our sales are concentrated in a few large customers

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 5.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 36.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-31); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.09400270603774291. Price 35.09; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.13905586850837257 → FY2026 3.198479095085954. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $23.70 per share

- 2016-11: $27.35 per share

- 2016-12: $28.05 per share

- 2017-01: $26.45 per share

- 2017-02: $26.00 per share

- 2017-03: $25.35 per share

- 2017-04: $24.40 per share

- 2017-05: $24.60 per share

- 2017-06: $24.65 per share

- 2017-07: $26.85 per share

- 2017-08: $26.63 per share

- 2017-09: $22.10 per share

- 2017-10: $19.90 per share

- 2017-11: $22.05 per share

- 2017-12: $20.93 per share

- 2018-01: $22.83 per share

- 2018-02: $18.10 per share

- 2018-03: $17.00 per share

- 2018-04: $17.70 per share

- 2018-05: $24.10 per share

- 2018-06: $23.65 per share

- 2018-07: $22.10 per share

- 2018-08: $20.51 per share

- 2018-09: $20.61 per share

- 2018-10: $13.10 per share

- 2018-11: $14.90 per share

- 2018-12: $13.80 per share

- 2019-01: $15.10 per share

- 2019-02: $19.12 per share

- 2019-03: $21.13 per share

- 2019-04: $22.42 per share

- 2019-05: $19.00 per share

- 2019-06: $19.35 per share

- 2019-07: $18.31 per share

- 2019-08: $18.90 per share

- 2019-09: $19.20 per share

- 2019-10: $20.68 per share

- 2019-11: $21.30 per share

- 2019-12: $24.02 per share

- 2020-01: $27.96 per share

- 2020-02: $25.38 per share

- 2020-03: $21.28 per share

- 2020-04: $22.90 per share

- 2020-05: $25.96 per share

- 2020-06: $28.39 per share

- 2020-07: $30.31 per share

- 2020-08: $27.39 per share

- 2020-09: $26.40 per share

- 2020-10: $22.72 per share

- 2020-11: $28.21 per share

- 2020-12: $31.66 per share

- 2021-01: $31.00 per share

- 2021-02: $32.63 per share

- 2021-03: $39.06 per share

- 2021-04: $37.02 per share

- 2021-05: $34.74 per share

- 2021-06: $35.18 per share

- 2021-07: $38.04 per share

- 2021-08: $36.54 per share

- 2021-09: $36.57 per share

- 2021-10: $35.39 per share

- 2021-11: $41.40 per share

- 2021-12: $43.95 per share

- 2022-01: $40.52 per share

- 2022-02: $39.29 per share

- 2022-03: $38.07 per share

- 2022-04: $42.10 per share

- 2022-05: $50.06 per share

- 2022-06: $40.35 per share

- 2022-07: $54.01 per share

- 2022-08: $65.08 per share

- 2022-09: $55.07 per share

- 2022-10: $69.59 per share

- 2022-11: $90.23 per share

- 2022-12: $82.10 per share

- 2023-01: $72.33 per share

- 2023-02: $97.97 per share

- 2023-03: $106.55 per share

- 2023-04: $105.43 per share

- 2023-05: $223.95 per share

- 2023-06: $249.25 per share

- 2023-07: $330.27 per share

- 2023-08: $275.08 per share

- 2023-09: $274.22 per share

- 2023-10: $239.47 per share

- 2023-11: $273.47 per share

- 2023-12: $284.26 per share

- 2024-01: $529.61 per share

- 2024-02: $866.12 per share

- 2024-03: $1,010.03 per share

- 2024-04: $858.80 per share

- 2024-05: $784.51 per share

- 2024-06: $819.35 per share

- 2024-07: $701.65 per share

- 2024-08: $437.70 per share

- 2024-09: $416.40 per share

- 2024-10: $29.11 per share

- 2024-11: $32.64 per share

- 2024-12: $30.48 per share

- 2025-01: $28.52 per share

- 2025-02: $41.46 per share

- 2025-03: $34.24 per share

- 2025-04: $31.86 per share

- 2025-05: $40.02 per share

- 2025-06: $49.01 per share

- 2025-07: $58.97 per share

- 2025-08: $41.54 per share

- 2025-09: $47.94 per share

- 2025-10: $51.96 per share

- 2025-11: $33.85 per share

- 2025-12: $29.27 per share

- 2026-01: $29.11 per share

- 2026-02: $32.39 per share

- 2026-03: $22.77 per share

- 2026-04: $27.40 per share

- 2026-05: $46.09 per share

- 2026-06: $29.33 per share

- 2026-07: $28.40 per share

- 2026-08: $37.28 per share

- 2026-09: $41.07 per share

- 2026-10: $35.09 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $2.18 per share, central $3.07 per share, high $3.58 per share

- FY2018: low $2.60 per share, central $3.31 per share, high $3.86 per share

- FY2019: low $2.56 per share, central $3.62 per share, high $4.24 per share

- FY2020: low $1.99 per share, central $2.65 per share, high $3.07 per share

- FY2021: low $2.95 per share, central $4.11 per share, high $4.79 per share

- FY2022: low $3.01 per share, central $4.17 per share, high $4.85 per share

- FY2023: low $9.61 per share, central $13.49 per share, high $15.76 per share

- FY2024: low $20.79 per share, central $28.73 per share, high $33.35 per share

- FY2025: low $33.62 per share, central $44.79 per share, high $51.30 per share

- FY2026: low $53.15 per share, central $71.78 per share, high $82.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000022/smci-20260630.htm); period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-31.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.