# Smiths Group (SMIN.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SMIN.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:59.210Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 2,671.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 1,725.46 per share, central GBX 1,817.93 per share, high GBX 1,941.03 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 1,817.93 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:59.210Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.25×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.21×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.14×

- FY2026: 0.16×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 37.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 43.2%

- FY2018: 20.7%

- FY2019: 12.3%

- FY2020: 6.6%

- FY2021: 9.1%

- FY2022: 8.0%

- FY2023: 17.0%

- FY2024: 23.0%

- FY2025: 20.2%

- FY2026: 48.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.06×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 2.9B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 2.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 33.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 2.32×

- FY2023: 1.13×

- FY2024: 1.10×

- FY2025: 1.25×

- FY2026: 1.01×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.7% vs 23.0%

- Per-share earnings: 0.69 to 0.87 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.6%

- Market cap gain: GBP 2.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 334M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 2.9%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.18

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.69

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.87

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.13

- Average buyback yield: 3.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 409M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 4.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 23.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 1.46

- FY2018: GBP 0.69

- FY2019: GBP 0.35

- FY2020: GBP 0.17

- FY2021: GBP 0.40

- FY2022: GBP 0.04

- FY2023: GBP 0.66

- FY2024: GBP 0.72

- FY2025: GBP 0.87

- FY2026: GBP 6.27

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals exceed 10%

- Sloan accruals: 35.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.12×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.24×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 1.8%

- FY2018: -2.5%

- FY2019: -3.8%

- FY2020: -6.7%

- FY2021: -7.1%

- FY2022: -5.1%

- FY2023: -1.4%

- FY2024: -4.0%

- FY2025: -4.1%

- FY2026: 35.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.3% a year for ten years · "Smiths Group shares hit six-week low as continuing operations miss forecasts" (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales -33.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:06.393Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.3% a year for ten years

- 2026-03-20: Smiths Group shares hit six-week low as continuing operations miss forecasts ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/smiths-group-flags-1-5-080639744.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -33.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11/2026-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31/reports/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31-T01.html; observed 2026-10-15.

- FY2017: GBP 3.3B 

- FY2018: GBP 3.2B 

- FY2019: GBP 2.5B 

- FY2020: GBP 2.5B 

- FY2021: GBP 2.4B 

- FY2022: GBP 2.6B 

- FY2023: GBP 3.0B 

- FY2024: GBP 3.1B 

- FY2025: GBP 2.9B 

- FY2026: GBP 1.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 39.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11/2026-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31/reports/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31-T01.html; observed 2026-10-15.

- FY2017: 46.5% 

- FY2018: 45.6% 

- FY2019: 42.8% 

- FY2020: 38.8% 

- FY2021: 38.0% 

- FY2022: 37.5% 

- FY2023: 36.8% 

- FY2024: 37.3% 

- FY2025: 14.1% 

- FY2026: 39.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty industrial machinery; annual sales are GBP 1.9 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11/2026-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31/reports/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31-T01.html (filed 2026-10-15); FY2026: revenue 1937000000; grossProfit 772000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SMIN.LSE: Smiths Group plc operates as an industrial engineering company in Americas, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, John Crane and Flex-Tek. Its John Crane business offers mechanical seals, seal support systems, power transmission couplings, and specialized filtration systems. The Flex-Tek business offers engineered components, flexible hosing, and rigid tubing that heat and move fluids and gases. It serves energy, process industries, aerospace, construction, and other markets. The company was formerly known as Smiths Industries and changed its name to Smiths Group plc in 2000. Smiths Group plc was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.1% to 39.9% during 2024–26; it earns 18.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 14.1%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11/2026-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31/reports/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31-T01.html (filed 2026-10-15); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 39.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.43168071160000276],[2018,0.20729502905100064],[2019,0.12337189374464438],[2020,0.06593013468013469],[2021,0.09070962710903162],[2022,0.0797444089456869],[2023,0.16965673575129533],[2024,0.2298960926602751],[2025,0.2022520107238606],[2026,0.4875]]; median 0.18595437323757796. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 37% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11/2026-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31/reports/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31-T01.html (filed 2026-10-15); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3802992518703242],[2022,0.3745128604832424],[2023,0.36812644056634836]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 882 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 107000000; owner earnings 582000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 106000000; owner earnings 256000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 118000000; owner earnings 121000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 110000000; owner earnings 81800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 117000000; owner earnings 154800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 88000000; owner earnings 30200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 81000000; owner earnings 261600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 86000000; owner earnings 274400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 72000000; owner earnings 365000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11/2026-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31/reports/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31-T01.html (filed 2026-10-15); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 64000000; owner earnings 1987000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); Dividend observations: [[2017,167000000],[2018,172000000],[2019,178000000],[2020,126000000],[2021,185000000],[2022,150000000],[2023,143000000],[2024,147000000],[2025,152000000],[2026,149000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11/2026-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31/reports/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31-T01.html (filed 2026-10-15); FY2026: cash repurchases 882000000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SMIN.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.8170000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 25.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13579839151098605. Price 2671; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.6696247724361997 → FY2026 6.328630123897188. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 1,418.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 1,411.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 1,416.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 1,501.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 1,495.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 1,619.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 1,640.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,603.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 1,597.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,535.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,545.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 1,577.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 1,571.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 1,483.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 1,490.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,598.50 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,597.50 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 1,513.50 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,597.50 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,760.50 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 1,698.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,614.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 1,611.50 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 1,495.50 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 1,397.50 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 1,389.50 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 1,364.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 1,444.50 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 1,430.50 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 1,435.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 1,522.50 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 1,440.50 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 1,565.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 1,642.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 1,669.50 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 1,570.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 1,613.50 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 1,661.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 1,687.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 1,689.50 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 1,533.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 1,226.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 1,240.50 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 1,306.50 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 1,412.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 1,355.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 1,402.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 1,375.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 1,329.50 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 1,459.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 1,504.50 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 1,418.50 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 1,464.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 1,537.50 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 1,625.50 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 1,549.50 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 1,590.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 1,555.50 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 1,442.50 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 1,441.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 1,355.50 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 1,442.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 1,579.50 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 1,550.50 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 1,529.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 1,452.50 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 1,477.50 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 1,555.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 1,399.50 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 1,542.50 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 1,491.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 1,510.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 1,560.50 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 1,588.50 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 1,598.50 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 1,727.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 1,763.50 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 1,716.50 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 1,681.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 1,606.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 1,644.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 1,699.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 1,640.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 1,619.50 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 1,613.50 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 1,648.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 1,763.50 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 1,622.50 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 1,608.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 1,641.50 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 1,616.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 1,722.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 1,705.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 1,786.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 1,802.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 1,677.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 1,529.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 1,771.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 1,719.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 2,066.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 2,014.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 1,931.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 1,864.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 2,154.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 2,246.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 2,352.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 2,356.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 2,352.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 2,518.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 2,444.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 2,352.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 2,510.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 2,746.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 2,280.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 2,544.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 2,464.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 2,560.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 2,642.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 2,612.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 2,825.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 2,671.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 1,040.25 per share, central GBX 1,158.43 per share, high GBX 1,315.75 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 941.44 per share, central GBX 1,048.78 per share, high GBX 1,191.68 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 664.63 per share, central GBX 748.05 per share, high GBX 859.10 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 639.57 per share, central GBX 716.79 per share, high GBX 819.58 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 516.90 per share, central GBX 575.76 per share, high GBX 654.11 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 653.30 per share, central GBX 705.09 per share, high GBX 774.02 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 523.72 per share, central GBX 587.09 per share, high GBX 671.45 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 747.47 per share, central GBX 834.81 per share, high GBX 951.08 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 856.46 per share, central GBX 968.94 per share, high GBX 1,118.68 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 1,519.94 per share, central GBX 1,601.40 per share, high GBX 1,709.84 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11/2026-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31/reports/213800MJL6IPZS3ASA11-2026-07-31-T01.html); period 2026-07-31, filed 2026-10-15.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Smiths Group

SMIN · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 2,671.00
Buy up to: GBX 1,817.93
Expected / yr: 6.2% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 25.3% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 13.8%
Worst year: 7.5%
Latest · 2026: 15.6%

The second-worst year 8% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 18.6%
Worst year: 6.6%
Latest · 2026: 48.8%

New investment earned 0% (minimum 12%).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.06×
Annual median: 1.13×
Latest · 2026: 1.01×

Per-share value rose from 0.69 to 0.87, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.68
Worst year: GBP 0.04
Latest · 2026: GBP 6.27

Accruals were 35.7% of assets (limit 10%), and cash still backed profits and only one warning appeared (two cause a failure).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -3.9%
Worst year: 35.7%
Latest · 2026: 35.7%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 14.0%, three-year average owner earnings per share 2.73 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 1418.00; 2016-11 · Price GBX 1411.00; 2016-12 · Price GBX 1416.00; 2017-01 · Price GBX 1501.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2017-02 · Price GBX 1495.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2017-03 · Price GBX 1619.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2017-04 · Price GBX 1640.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2017-05 · Price GBX 1603.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2017-06 · Price GBX 1597.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2017-07 · Price GBX 1535.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2017-08 · Price GBX 1545.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2017-09 · Price GBX 1577.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2017-10 · Price GBX 1571.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2017-11 · Price GBX 1483.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2017-12 · Price GBX 1490.00 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2018-01 · Price GBX 1598.50 · Value 1158.43 · Buy at or below 1158.43; 2018-02 · Price GBX 1597.50 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2018-03 · Price GBX 1513.50 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2018-04 · Price GBX 1597.50 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2018-05 · Price GBX 1760.50 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2018-06 · Price GBX 1698.00 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2018-07 · Price GBX 1614.00 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2018-08 · Price GBX 1611.50 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2018-09 · Price GBX 1495.50 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2018-10 · Price GBX 1397.50 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2018-11 · Price GBX 1389.50 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2018-12 · Price GBX 1364.00 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2019-01 · Price GBX 1444.50 · Value 1048.78 · Buy at or below 1048.78; 2019-02 · Price GBX 1430.50 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2019-03 · Price GBX 1435.00 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2019-04 · Price GBX 1522.50 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2019-05 · Price GBX 1440.50 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2019-06 · Price GBX 1565.00 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2019-07 · Price GBX 1642.00 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2019-08 · Price GBX 1669.50 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2019-09 · Price GBX 1570.00 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2019-10 · Price GBX 1613.50 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2019-11 · Price GBX 1661.00 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2019-12 · Price GBX 1687.00 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2020-01 · Price GBX 1689.50 · Value 748.05 · Buy at or below 748.05; 2020-02 · Price GBX 1533.00 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2020-03 · Price GBX 1226.00 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2020-04 · Price GBX 1240.50 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2020-05 · Price GBX 1306.50 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2020-06 · Price GBX 1412.00 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2020-07 · Price GBX 1355.00 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2020-08 · Price GBX 1402.00 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2020-09 · Price GBX 1375.00 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2020-10 · Price GBX 1329.50 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2020-11 · Price GBX 1459.00 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2020-12 · Price GBX 1504.50 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2021-01 · Price GBX 1418.50 · Value 716.79 · Buy at or below 716.79; 2021-02 · Price GBX 1464.00 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2021-03 · Price GBX 1537.50 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2021-04 · Price GBX 1625.50 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2021-05 · Price GBX 1549.50 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2021-06 · Price GBX 1590.00 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2021-07 · Price GBX 1555.50 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2021-08 · Price GBX 1442.50 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2021-09 · Price GBX 1441.00 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2021-10 · Price GBX 1355.50 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2021-11 · Price GBX 1442.00 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2021-12 · Price GBX 1579.50 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2022-01 · Price GBX 1550.50 · Value 575.76 · Buy at or below 575.76; 2022-02 · Price GBX 1529.00 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2022-03 · Price GBX 1452.50 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2022-04 · Price GBX 1477.50 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2022-05 · Price GBX 1555.00 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2022-06 · Price GBX 1399.50 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2022-07 · Price GBX 1542.50 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2022-08 · Price GBX 1491.00 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2022-09 · Price GBX 1510.00 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2022-10 · Price GBX 1560.50 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2022-11 · Price GBX 1588.50 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2022-12 · Price GBX 1598.50 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2023-01 · Price GBX 1727.00 · Value 705.09 · Buy at or below 705.09; 2023-02 · Price GBX 1763.50 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2023-03 · Price GBX 1716.50 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2023-04 · Price GBX 1681.00 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2023-05 · Price GBX 1606.00 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2023-06 · Price GBX 1644.00 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2023-07 · Price GBX 1699.00 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2023-08 · Price GBX 1640.00 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2023-09 · Price GBX 1619.50 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2023-10 · Price GBX 1613.50 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2023-11 · Price GBX 1648.00 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2023-12 · Price GBX 1763.50 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2024-01 · Price GBX 1622.50 · Value 587.09 · Buy at or below 587.09; 2024-02 · Price GBX 1608.00 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2024-03 · Price GBX 1641.50 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2024-04 · Price GBX 1616.00 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2024-05 · Price GBX 1722.00 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2024-06 · Price GBX 1705.00 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2024-07 · Price GBX 1786.00 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2024-08 · Price GBX 1802.00 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2024-09 · Price GBX 1677.00 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2024-10 · Price GBX 1529.00 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2024-11 · Price GBX 1771.00 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2024-12 · Price GBX 1719.00 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2025-01 · Price GBX 2066.00 · Value 834.81 · Buy at or below 834.81; 2025-02 · Price GBX 2014.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2025-03 · Price GBX 1931.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2025-04 · Price GBX 1864.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2025-05 · Price GBX 2154.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2025-06 · Price GBX 2246.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2025-07 · Price GBX 2352.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2025-08 · Price GBX 2356.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2025-09 · Price GBX 2352.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2025-10 · Price GBX 2518.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2025-11 · Price GBX 2444.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2025-12 · Price GBX 2352.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2026-01 · Price GBX 2510.00 · Value 968.94 · Buy at or below 968.94; 2026-02 · Price GBX 2746.00 · Value 1601.40 · Buy at or below 1601.40; 2026-03 · Price GBX 2280.00 · Value 1601.40 · Buy at or below 1601.40; 2026-04 · Price GBX 2544.00 · Value 1601.40 · Buy at or below 1601.40; 2026-05 · Price GBX 2464.00 · Value 1601.40 · Buy at or below 1601.40; 2026-06 · Price GBX 2560.00 · Value 1601.40 · Buy at or below 1601.40; 2026-07 · Price GBX 2642.00 · Value 1601.40 · Buy at or below 1601.40; 2026-08 · Price GBX 2612.00 · Value 1601.40 · Buy at or below 1601.40; 2026-09 · Price GBX 2825.00 · Value 1601.40 · Buy at or below 1601.40; 2026-10 · Price GBX 2671.00 · Value 1601.40 · Buy at or below 1601.40; 2026-10 · Price GBX 2671.00 · Value 1601.40 · Buy at or below 1601.40

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 1,725.46 – GBX 1,941.03
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 1,817.93
Discount to value	1 − 2671.00 / 1817.93 = -46.9%
Return / year	About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 61.36/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 1054.79/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 1.9B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 2.0B

Owner earnings

Operating margin15.6%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP 1.8B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares314M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·