# Simply Good Foods (SMPL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SMPL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:58.901Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $11.13 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $21.13 per share, central $23.89 per share, high $27.57 per share. Buy at or below the central value $23.89 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:58.901Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 19.4% at the stated quote. About 19.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.14×

- FY2021: 0.18×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.15×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 37.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 11.3%

- FY2018: 22.8%

- FY2019: 38.2%

- FY2020: 8.4%

- FY2021: 10.0%

- FY2022: 11.4%

- FY2023: 12.3%

- FY2024: 11.5%

- FY2025: 11.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.19×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $626M

- Net income, five-year total: $526M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 139.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 2.86×

- FY2022: 0.85×

- FY2023: 1.11×

- FY2024: 1.15×

- FY2025: 1.03×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 22.8% vs 11.7%

- Per-share earnings: -0.03 to 1.32 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Market cap gain: $2.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $603M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $1.35

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.03

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.32

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.12

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 22.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -$0.03

- FY2018: $0.97

- FY2019: -$0.31

- FY2020: $0.67

- FY2021: $0.42

- FY2022: $1.08

- FY2023: $1.32

- FY2024: $1.38

- FY2025: $1.02

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.72×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.4%

- FY2018: 1.0%

- FY2019: -8.5%

- FY2020: 0.3%

- FY2021: -4.4%

- FY2022: -0.1%

- FY2023: -1.6%

- FY2024: -3.0%

- FY2025: -3.1%

## Holders

- [Howard Marks](https://gigainvestors.com/oc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 73% since Apr 2022 · "Simply Good Foods slashes outlook, slips to second-quarter loss" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:35.985Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 9.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-10: Simply Good Foods Narrows Full-Year Outlook as Third-Quarter Sales Trail Estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/simply-good-foods-narrows-full-143851690.html))

- 2025-11-13: A Look at Simply Good Foods's Valuation After Earnings Miss and Cautious 2026 Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/look-simply-good-foodss-valuation-081401137.html))

- 2026-04-09: Simply Good Foods slashes outlook, slips to second-quarter loss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/simply-good-foods-slashes-outlook-134759097.html))

- 2026-07-21: Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Stock Fair Value Moves Lower After Softer Growth Revisions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/simply-good-foods-smpl-stock-061149577.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1702744/000170274425000046/atk-20250830.htm; observed 2025-10-28.

- FY2017: $396M 

- FY2018: $431M 

- FY2019: $524M 

- FY2020: $817M 

- FY2021: $1.0B 

- FY2022: $1.2B 

- FY2023: $1.2B 

- FY2024: $1.3B 

- FY2025: $1.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 35.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1702744/000170274425000046/atk-20250830.htm; observed 2025-10-28.

- FY2017: 43.1% 

- FY2018: 40.1% 

- FY2019: 40.1% 

- FY2020: 37.8% 

- FY2021: 39.1% 

- FY2022: 36.6% 

- FY2023: 35.1% 

- FY2024: 37.2% 

- FY2025: 35.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are USD 1.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1702744/000170274425000046/atk-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-28); FY2025: revenue 1450920000; grossProfit 508847000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); SMPL.US: The Simply Good Foods Company, a consumer-packaged food and beverage company, engages in the development, marketing, and sale of snacks and meal replacements, and other products in North America and internationally. The company offers protein bars, ready-to-drink beverages and shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, muffins, protein chips and crackers, protein powders, and recipes under the Quest, Atkins, and OWYN brand names. It also provides confectionery products, such as peanut butter cups, brownies, caramel candy bites, chocolatey coated peanut candies, and caramel candy bars. In addition, the company licenses certain products that contain its brands and logos; and distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug stores, club and convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including questnutrition.com, atkins.com, liveowyn.com, amazon.com and others. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.1% to 37.2% during 2023–25; it earns 11.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 35.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1702744/000170274425000046/atk-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-28); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); 9-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.11283803943906474],[2018,0.22843375381963488],[2019,0.38213189990062335],[2020,0.08427389501674776],[2021,0.10040541221248261],[2022,0.11434624128803726],[2023,0.1228897050020643],[2024,0.11488048537479582],[2025,0.11715470431143182]]; median 0.11488048537479582. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 1.6% of cash earnings; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1770000; owner earnings 54920000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1736000; owner earnings 49549000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 6706000; owner earnings 117118000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 5756000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 92642000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 12188000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 148368999. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 6473000; cash acquisitions 280409000; owner earnings 160820000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.7436201964929736.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1702744/000170274425000046/atk-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-28); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 20542000; cash acquisitions 1713000; owner earnings 106835000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.016034071231338046.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); Incremental return on capital 1.3897001226990155, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,114170000],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,4343000],[2023,5247000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1702744/000170274425000046/atk-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-28); FY2025: cash repurchases 50886000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 9.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); SMPL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 9.229 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1702744/000170274425000046/atk-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-28); any of whom offer products similar to ours and may have unique ties to regional or national retail chains. Any increased competition from new entrants into the nutritional snacking industry or any increased success by existing competition could cause reductions in our sales, require us to reduce our prices, or both, which could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our operations are dependent on a global supply chain and the effects on us or our suppliers of supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures, including those related to tariffs, could adversely affect our operating results.

Our operations and the operations of our contract manufacturers have been, and may continue to be, affected by supply chain constraints and packaging, ingredient and labor challenges resulting in increased costs. The continuing uncertain economic environment and macroeconomic and geopolitical events and trends may increase or prolong these risks. In addition, current or future governmental policies or regulations, which include the imposition of tariffs, or the effects on certain ingredients resulting from climate change or regulations associated with combating climate change may increase the risk of further inflation, which could further increase the costs of ingredients, packaging and finished goods for our business. Similarly, if costs of goods and labor continue to increase, our suppliers may continue to seek price increases from us. These circumstances have resulted in negative effects on our results of operations. If we cannot mitigate the effect of supply chain constraints and inflationary pressure through price increases or cost saving measures, our results of operations and financial condition could be further negatively affected.

Even if we can raise the prices of our products, consumers might react negatively to these price increases, which could have a material adverse effect on, among other things, our brands, reputation, and sales. If our competitors maintain or lower their prices while we raise prices, we may lose customers or the purchase frequency of our products may slow, which would both adversely affect sales. Our profitability may be negatively affected by higher costs, inadequate pricing or a reduction in purchase frequencies of our products, which may negatively affect gross margins and sales. Even though we continue to work to alleviate supply chain constraints through various measures, we cannot predict the effect of these constraints on the timing of revenue and operating costs of our business in the near future. Supply chain challenges and supply chain constraints relating to ingredients, freight and packaging, including cost inflation in general and as related to tariffs, have negatively affected our gross margins and profitability in the past and may continue to have a negati

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 9.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.14522029267707087. Price 11.13; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $10.25 per share

- 2016-11: $10.63 per share

- 2016-12: $10.23 per share

- 2017-01: $10.45 per share

- 2017-02: $10.59 per share

- 2017-03: $10.60 per share

- 2017-04: $11.80 per share

- 2017-05: $11.58 per share

- 2017-06: $11.78 per share

- 2017-07: $11.85 per share

- 2017-08: $11.85 per share

- 2017-09: $11.71 per share

- 2017-10: $11.52 per share

- 2017-11: $13.24 per share

- 2017-12: $14.26 per share

- 2018-01: $13.60 per share

- 2018-02: $13.51 per share

- 2018-03: $13.73 per share

- 2018-04: $12.96 per share

- 2018-05: $13.25 per share

- 2018-06: $14.44 per share

- 2018-07: $16.68 per share

- 2018-08: $18.00 per share

- 2018-09: $19.45 per share

- 2018-10: $18.96 per share

- 2018-11: $20.32 per share

- 2018-12: $18.90 per share

- 2019-01: $19.79 per share

- 2019-02: $20.46 per share

- 2019-03: $20.59 per share

- 2019-04: $22.46 per share

- 2019-05: $21.49 per share

- 2019-06: $24.08 per share

- 2019-07: $27.23 per share

- 2019-08: $29.63 per share

- 2019-09: $28.99 per share

- 2019-10: $24.54 per share

- 2019-11: $27.63 per share

- 2019-12: $28.54 per share

- 2020-01: $22.97 per share

- 2020-02: $22.06 per share

- 2020-03: $19.26 per share

- 2020-04: $18.85 per share

- 2020-05: $17.03 per share

- 2020-06: $18.58 per share

- 2020-07: $24.04 per share

- 2020-08: $24.85 per share

- 2020-09: $22.05 per share

- 2020-10: $18.80 per share

- 2020-11: $21.74 per share

- 2020-12: $31.36 per share

- 2021-01: $28.54 per share

- 2021-02: $29.17 per share

- 2021-03: $30.42 per share

- 2021-04: $34.55 per share

- 2021-05: $34.53 per share

- 2021-06: $36.51 per share

- 2021-07: $37.48 per share

- 2021-08: $35.62 per share

- 2021-09: $34.49 per share

- 2021-10: $39.65 per share

- 2021-11: $36.97 per share

- 2021-12: $41.57 per share

- 2022-01: $35.23 per share

- 2022-02: $39.63 per share

- 2022-03: $37.95 per share

- 2022-04: $41.65 per share

- 2022-05: $39.96 per share

- 2022-06: $37.77 per share

- 2022-07: $32.62 per share

- 2022-08: $30.55 per share

- 2022-09: $31.99 per share

- 2022-10: $38.30 per share

- 2022-11: $39.90 per share

- 2022-12: $38.03 per share

- 2023-01: $36.30 per share

- 2023-02: $38.29 per share

- 2023-03: $39.77 per share

- 2023-04: $36.37 per share

- 2023-05: $36.19 per share

- 2023-06: $36.59 per share

- 2023-07: $38.71 per share

- 2023-08: $36.08 per share

- 2023-09: $34.52 per share

- 2023-10: $37.29 per share

- 2023-11: $38.74 per share

- 2023-12: $39.60 per share

- 2024-01: $37.80 per share

- 2024-02: $35.48 per share

- 2024-03: $34.03 per share

- 2024-04: $36.45 per share

- 2024-05: $38.49 per share

- 2024-06: $36.13 per share

- 2024-07: $33.92 per share

- 2024-08: $31.59 per share

- 2024-09: $34.77 per share

- 2024-10: $33.66 per share

- 2024-11: $39.79 per share

- 2024-12: $38.98 per share

- 2025-01: $38.00 per share

- 2025-02: $37.75 per share

- 2025-03: $34.49 per share

- 2025-04: $36.11 per share

- 2025-05: $34.51 per share

- 2025-06: $31.59 per share

- 2025-07: $30.46 per share

- 2025-08: $28.63 per share

- 2025-09: $24.82 per share

- 2025-10: $19.57 per share

- 2025-11: $19.68 per share

- 2025-12: $20.08 per share

- 2026-01: $18.77 per share

- 2026-02: $17.06 per share

- 2026-03: $14.35 per share

- 2026-04: $13.37 per share

- 2026-05: $11.52 per share

- 2026-06: $13.28 per share

- 2026-07: $10.18 per share

- 2026-08: $11.45 per share

- 2026-09: $9.49 per share

- 2026-10: $11.13 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $7.42 per share, central $8.36 per share, high $9.62 per share

- FY2022: low $10.51 per share, central $11.89 per share, high $13.74 per share

- FY2023: low $11.30 per share, central $12.77 per share, high $14.73 per share

- FY2024: low $17.78 per share, central $20.09 per share, high $23.16 per share

- FY2025: low $18.88 per share, central $21.39 per share, high $24.73 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1702744/000170274425000046/atk-20250830.htm); period 2025-08-30, filed 2025-10-28.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.