# Simon Property Group (SPG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SPG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:03.445Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $203.39 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $144.52 per share, central $164.12 per share, high $190.21 per share. Buy at or below the central value $164.12 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:03.445Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.6% at the stated quote. About 8.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.05×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.51×

- FY2018: 0.52×

- FY2019: 0.51×

- FY2020: 0.43×

- FY2021: 0.47×

- FY2022: 0.49×

- FY2023: 0.50×

- FY2024: 0.52×

- FY2025: 0.50×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.47×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 82.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 83.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.7%

- FY2017: 10.0%

- FY2018: 10.8%

- FY2019: 10.5%

- FY2020: 6.7%

- FY2021: 7.9%

- FY2022: 8.9%

- FY2023: 10.0%

- FY2024: 11.7%

- FY2025: 9.4%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.28×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $18B

- Net income, five-year total: $14B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 23.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.59×

- FY2022: 1.50×

- FY2023: 1.18×

- FY2024: 1.22×

- FY2025: 1.12×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.0% vs 10.0%

- Per-share earnings: 5.89 to 8.01 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Market cap gain: $4.7B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$149M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.9%

- Per-share value change: $2.11

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.89

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.01

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.26

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $56M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $23B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.86

- FY2017: $6.27

- FY2018: $7.89

- FY2019: $6.82

- FY2020: $3.60

- FY2021: $6.85

- FY2022: $6.53

- FY2023: $8.01

- FY2024: $7.27

- FY2025: $14.14

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 1.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.61×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.90×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.9%

- FY2017: -5.1%

- FY2018: -4.3%

- FY2019: -5.5%

- FY2020: -3.5%

- FY2021: -4.1%

- FY2022: -4.9%

- FY2023: -3.8%

- FY2024: -4.5%

- FY2025: 1.2%

## Holders

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.6% a year for ten years · "Full-Year 2025 FFO Guidance: Increased to $12.45 to $12.65 per share." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +9.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:37.061Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-13: Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG) Reaffirms Earnings and Increases Dividend by 5% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/simon-property-group-nyse-spg-233809372.html))

- 2025-08-04: Simon Property Group Inc (NYSE:SPG) Surpasses Q2 2025 Earnings Estimates and Raises Full-Year Guidance ([chartmill.com](https://www.chartmill.com/news/SPG/Chartmill-32235-Simon-Property-Group-Inc-NYSESPG-Surpasses-Q2-2025-Earnings-Estimates-and-Raises-Full-Year-Guidance))

- 2026-05-12: SPG Q1 FFO Tops Estimates, Dividend and Guidance Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spg-q1-ffo-tops-estimates-151400685.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1063761/000110465926019419/spg-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $5.5B 

- FY2018: $5.6B 

- FY2019: $5.8B 

- FY2020: $4.6B 

- FY2021: $5.1B 

- FY2022: $5.3B 

- FY2023: $5.7B 

- FY2024: $6.0B 

- FY2025: $6.4B 

- FY2026: $6.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 85.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1063761/000110465926019419/spg-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 82.1% 

- FY2017: 82.3% 

- FY2018: 82.1% 

- FY2019: 82.2% 

- FY2020: 80.7% 

- FY2021: 81.0% 

- FY2022: 81.1% 

- FY2023: 83.5% 

- FY2024: 82.5% 

- FY2025: 85.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are USD 6.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1063761/000110465926019419/spg-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 6364505000; grossProfit 5455362000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SPG.US: Simon Property Group, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). Simon Property Group, L.P., or the Operating Partnership, is our majority-owned partnership subsidiary that owns all of our real estate properties and other assets. In this package, the terms Simon, we, our, or the Company refer to Simon Property Group, Inc., the Operating Partnership, and its subsidiaries. We own, develop and manage premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations, which consist primarily of malls, Premium Outlets, The Mills, and International Properties. At December 31, 2024, we owned or had an interest in 229 properties comprising 183 million square feet in North America, Asia and Europe. We also owned an 88% interest in The Taubman Realty Group, or TRG, which owns 22 regional, super-regional, and outlet malls in the U.S. and Asia. Additionally, at December 31, 2024, we had a 22.4% ownership interest in Klepierre, a publicly traded, Paris-based real estate company, which owns shopping centers in 14 European countries. Simon Property Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1960 and is based in Indianapolis, Indiana.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 82.5% to 85.7% during 2023–25; it earns 9.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 83.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 82.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1063761/000110465926019419/spg-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 85.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09701436056539052],[2017,0.09978526206767362],[2018,0.1076748552606958],[2019,0.10528347222924907],[2020,0.06717310967562942],[2021,0.0794131451257374],[2022,0.08937464813997151],[2023,0.0995124621943714],[2024,0.11657514297869734],[2025,0.0940145363706111]]; median 0.09826341137988095. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 248.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 798465000; owner earnings 2295005877.88295. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 732100000; owner earnings 2573213000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 781909000; owner earnings 3007925000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 876011000; owner earnings 2619745000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 484119000; owner earnings 1983436000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 527935000; owner earnings 3578734805.660591. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 650024000; owner earnings 3208544794.2778153. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 793283000; owner earnings 3085842000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 755584000; owner earnings 2895874709.285125. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1063761/000110465926019419/spg-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 934346000; owner earnings 5148381146.655929. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,2037542000],[2017,2231259000],[2018,2449071000],[2019,2949401000],[2020,1664193000],[2021,2690700000],[2022,2592472000],[2023,2439233000],[2024,2645213000],[2025,3233422000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1063761/000110465926019419/spg-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 248347000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SPG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.799 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Vacant space at our properties could materially and adversely affect us." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1063761/000110465926019419/spg-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-25); Vacant space at our properties could materially and adversely affect us.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03881702528777688. Price 203.39; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 6.495300259016168 → FY2025 15.774839220254382. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $185.96 per share

- 2016-11: $179.65 per share

- 2016-12: $177.67 per share

- 2017-01: $183.77 per share

- 2017-02: $184.40 per share

- 2017-03: $172.03 per share

- 2017-04: $165.26 per share

- 2017-05: $154.25 per share

- 2017-06: $161.76 per share

- 2017-07: $158.50 per share

- 2017-08: $156.85 per share

- 2017-09: $161.01 per share

- 2017-10: $155.33 per share

- 2017-11: $161.75 per share

- 2017-12: $171.74 per share

- 2018-01: $163.37 per share

- 2018-02: $153.51 per share

- 2018-03: $154.35 per share

- 2018-04: $156.34 per share

- 2018-05: $160.22 per share

- 2018-06: $170.19 per share

- 2018-07: $176.21 per share

- 2018-08: $183.03 per share

- 2018-09: $176.75 per share

- 2018-10: $183.52 per share

- 2018-11: $185.69 per share

- 2018-12: $167.99 per share

- 2019-01: $182.12 per share

- 2019-02: $181.16 per share

- 2019-03: $182.21 per share

- 2019-04: $173.70 per share

- 2019-05: $162.09 per share

- 2019-06: $159.76 per share

- 2019-07: $162.20 per share

- 2019-08: $148.94 per share

- 2019-09: $155.65 per share

- 2019-10: $150.68 per share

- 2019-11: $151.21 per share

- 2019-12: $148.96 per share

- 2020-01: $133.15 per share

- 2020-02: $123.08 per share

- 2020-03: $54.86 per share

- 2020-04: $66.77 per share

- 2020-05: $57.70 per share

- 2020-06: $68.38 per share

- 2020-07: $62.35 per share

- 2020-08: $67.85 per share

- 2020-09: $64.68 per share

- 2020-10: $62.81 per share

- 2020-11: $82.57 per share

- 2020-12: $85.28 per share

- 2021-01: $92.93 per share

- 2021-02: $112.92 per share

- 2021-03: $113.77 per share

- 2021-04: $121.74 per share

- 2021-05: $128.49 per share

- 2021-06: $130.48 per share

- 2021-07: $126.52 per share

- 2021-08: $134.45 per share

- 2021-09: $129.97 per share

- 2021-10: $146.58 per share

- 2021-11: $152.84 per share

- 2021-12: $159.77 per share

- 2022-01: $147.20 per share

- 2022-02: $137.56 per share

- 2022-03: $131.56 per share

- 2022-04: $118.00 per share

- 2022-05: $114.65 per share

- 2022-06: $94.92 per share

- 2022-07: $108.64 per share

- 2022-08: $101.98 per share

- 2022-09: $89.75 per share

- 2022-10: $108.98 per share

- 2022-11: $119.44 per share

- 2022-12: $117.48 per share

- 2023-01: $128.46 per share

- 2023-02: $122.09 per share

- 2023-03: $111.97 per share

- 2023-04: $113.32 per share

- 2023-05: $105.15 per share

- 2023-06: $115.48 per share

- 2023-07: $124.60 per share

- 2023-08: $113.49 per share

- 2023-09: $108.03 per share

- 2023-10: $109.89 per share

- 2023-11: $124.89 per share

- 2023-12: $142.64 per share

- 2024-01: $138.61 per share

- 2024-02: $148.14 per share

- 2024-03: $156.49 per share

- 2024-04: $140.53 per share

- 2024-05: $151.31 per share

- 2024-06: $151.80 per share

- 2024-07: $153.44 per share

- 2024-08: $167.35 per share

- 2024-09: $169.02 per share

- 2024-10: $169.12 per share

- 2024-11: $183.60 per share

- 2024-12: $172.21 per share

- 2025-01: $173.86 per share

- 2025-02: $186.09 per share

- 2025-03: $166.08 per share

- 2025-04: $157.38 per share

- 2025-05: $163.07 per share

- 2025-06: $160.76 per share

- 2025-07: $163.79 per share

- 2025-08: $180.66 per share

- 2025-09: $187.67 per share

- 2025-10: $175.76 per share

- 2025-11: $186.32 per share

- 2025-12: $185.11 per share

- 2026-01: $191.31 per share

- 2026-02: $203.85 per share

- 2026-03: $186.53 per share

- 2026-04: $203.71 per share

- 2026-05: $204.91 per share

- 2026-06: $223.65 per share

- 2026-07: $229.37 per share

- 2026-08: $212.32 per share

- 2026-09: $200.76 per share

- 2026-10: $200.65 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $75.02 per share, central $85.20 per share, high $98.74 per share

- FY2017: low $79.56 per share, central $90.00 per share, high $103.89 per share

- FY2018: low $85.37 per share, central $96.98 per share, high $112.44 per share

- FY2019: low $94.55 per share, central $107.37 per share, high $124.43 per share

- FY2020: low $76.86 per share, central $87.10 per share, high $100.72 per share

- FY2021: low $80.39 per share, central $91.31 per share, high $105.86 per share

- FY2022: low $95.38 per share, central $108.34 per share, high $125.59 per share

- FY2023: low $108.36 per share, central $122.59 per share, high $141.54 per share

- FY2024: low $112.42 per share, central $127.45 per share, high $147.46 per share

- FY2025: low $131.08 per share, central $148.90 per share, high $172.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:37:48.590Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1063761/000110465926019419/spg-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.