# Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SPOT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:04.074Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $533.37 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $48.95 per share, central $49.07 per share, high $49.23 per share. Buy at or below the central value $49.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:04.074Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.0% at the stated quote. About 3.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 8

- Operating margin variation: 5.39×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.12×

- FY2017: -0.09×

- FY2018: -0.01×

- FY2019: -0.01×

- FY2020: -0.04×

- FY2021: 0.01×

- FY2022: -0.06×

- FY2023: -0.03×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -8.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -31.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -4.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 25.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 5

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -15.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -31.6%

- FY2017: -61.8%

- FY2018: -12.8%

- FY2019: -3.1%

- FY2020: -8.6%

- FY2021: 4.4%

- FY2022: -12.7%

- FY2023: -8.4%

- FY2024: 15.2%

- FY2025: 21.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.21×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 2.8B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 2.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -0.24×

- FY2022: 0.66×

- FY2023: 0.71×

- FY2024: 1.09×

- FY2025: 1.02×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -31.6% vs 15.2%

- Per-share earnings: -3.63 to 5.50 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Market cap gain: EUR 91B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 1.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: EUR 9.13

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR -3.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 5.50

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.52

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: EUR 1.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR -265M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -31.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR -3.63

- FY2017: EUR -8.14

- FY2018: EUR -0.43

- FY2019: EUR -1.03

- FY2020: EUR -3.10

- FY2021: EUR -0.18

- FY2022: EUR -2.20

- FY2023: EUR -2.73

- FY2024: EUR 5.50

- FY2025: EUR 10.51

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.33×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -30.5%

- FY2017: -45.5%

- FY2018: -9.7%

- FY2019: -14.8%

- FY2020: -13.3%

- FY2021: -5.5%

- FY2022: -6.2%

- FY2023: -14.5%

- FY2024: -9.7%

- FY2025: -4.8%

## Holders

- [Josh Tarasoff](https://gigainvestors.com/GLC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Vinall](https://gigainvestors.com/RVC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Jeffrey Ubben](https://gigainvestors.com/VA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 30% since Jun 2025 · "Higher marketing, cloud and artificial intelligence spending weighed on the bottom line." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +9.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:37.275Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 95.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-29: Spotify stock takes hit over Q2 user growth guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/spotify-stock-takes-hit-over-140523297.html))

- 2025-07-29: Spotify forecasts profit below estimates on higher taxes, shares sink ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/spotify-forecasts-thirdquarter-profit-below-estimates-on-higher-taxes-4156772))

- 2025-08-04: Spotify Stock Rises As Music Streamer Raises Prices In International Markets ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b3b7830f-73d4-325a-863f-2aac87461324/spotify-stock-rises-as-music.html))

- 2026-01-21: Spotify (SPOT) Valuation Check As New Premium Price Hikes Test Growth And Churn Concerns ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spotify-spot-valuation-check-premium-170852099.html))

- 2026-05-25: Spotify sets 2030 financial targets, unveils AI remix tool with UMG at Investor Day ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spotify-sets-2030-financial-targets-163600177.html))

- 2026-08-04: Spotify forecasts weak profit as user growth slows in North America, Europe ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/spotify-forecasts-weak-profit-user-101130556.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +9.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026006874/ck0001639920-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-10.

- FY2016: EUR 3.0B 

- FY2017: EUR 4.1B 

- FY2018: EUR 5.3B 

- FY2019: EUR 6.8B 

- FY2020: EUR 7.9B 

- FY2021: EUR 9.7B 

- FY2022: EUR 12B 

- FY2023: EUR 13B 

- FY2024: EUR 16B 

- FY2025: EUR 17B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 32%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026006874/ck0001639920-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-10.

- FY2016: 13.6% 

- FY2017: 20.8% 

- FY2018: 25.7% 

- FY2019: 25.5% 

- FY2020: 25.6% 

- FY2021: 26.8% 

- FY2022: 25.0% 

- FY2023: 25.6% 

- FY2024: 30.1% 

- FY2025: 32.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet content & information; annual sales are EUR 17.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026006874/ck0001639920-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: revenue 17186000000; grossProfit 5496000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SPOT.US: Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners. The Ad-Supported segment provides limited on-demand online access to its catalog of music and online and offline access to its catalog of podcasts on computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also offers sales, distribution and marketing, contract research and development, and customer and other support services. Spotify Technology S.A. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 25.6% to 32% during 2023–25; it lost 8.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 25.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 30.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026006874/ck0001639920-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 32%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.31618119266055045],[2017,-0.6182608695652174],[2018,-0.12818867924528302],[2019,-0.0306104033970276],[2020,-0.08649850523168909],[2021,0.04389367816091954],[2022,-0.12747551420176298],[2023,-0.08351268073003082],[2024,0.15239664391268426],[2025,0.21255617771218127]]; median -0.08500559298085995. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 25% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026006874/ck0001639920-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.26799751758378154],[2022,0.2495096785196555],[2023,0.25643541934022795]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years; bought back EUR 439 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 85000000; owner earnings 8000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 17000000; owner earnings 1242000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026006874/ck0001639920-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 61000000; owner earnings 2253000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,242296249],[2020,30000000],[2021,205898281],[2022,42225550],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026006874/ck0001639920-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 439000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 23.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SPOT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 23.458000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 95.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 1.4713570854858697. Price 533.37; FX 1.12128; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -1.4840955735615753 → FY2025 10.70262149573881. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-04: $161.67 per share

- 2018-05: $157.71 per share

- 2018-06: $168.24 per share

- 2018-07: $182.83 per share

- 2018-08: $189.52 per share

- 2018-09: $180.83 per share

- 2018-10: $149.69 per share

- 2018-11: $136.38 per share

- 2018-12: $113.50 per share

- 2019-01: $135.45 per share

- 2019-02: $140.14 per share

- 2019-03: $138.80 per share

- 2019-04: $135.77 per share

- 2019-05: $125.58 per share

- 2019-06: $146.22 per share

- 2019-07: $154.94 per share

- 2019-08: $134.95 per share

- 2019-09: $114.00 per share

- 2019-10: $144.30 per share

- 2019-11: $142.55 per share

- 2019-12: $149.55 per share

- 2020-01: $141.30 per share

- 2020-02: $137.12 per share

- 2020-03: $121.44 per share

- 2020-04: $151.57 per share

- 2020-05: $180.93 per share

- 2020-06: $258.19 per share

- 2020-07: $257.82 per share

- 2020-08: $282.16 per share

- 2020-09: $242.57 per share

- 2020-10: $239.89 per share

- 2020-11: $291.37 per share

- 2020-12: $314.66 per share

- 2021-01: $315.00 per share

- 2021-02: $307.38 per share

- 2021-03: $267.95 per share

- 2021-04: $252.12 per share

- 2021-05: $241.57 per share

- 2021-06: $275.59 per share

- 2021-07: $228.67 per share

- 2021-08: $234.34 per share

- 2021-09: $225.34 per share

- 2021-10: $289.40 per share

- 2021-11: $238.50 per share

- 2021-12: $234.03 per share

- 2022-01: $196.26 per share

- 2022-02: $156.19 per share

- 2022-03: $151.02 per share

- 2022-04: $101.65 per share

- 2022-05: $112.77 per share

- 2022-06: $93.83 per share

- 2022-07: $113.02 per share

- 2022-08: $108.15 per share

- 2022-09: $86.30 per share

- 2022-10: $80.58 per share

- 2022-11: $79.42 per share

- 2022-12: $78.95 per share

- 2023-01: $112.72 per share

- 2023-02: $116.30 per share

- 2023-03: $133.62 per share

- 2023-04: $133.60 per share

- 2023-05: $148.90 per share

- 2023-06: $160.55 per share

- 2023-07: $149.41 per share

- 2023-08: $153.97 per share

- 2023-09: $154.64 per share

- 2023-10: $164.76 per share

- 2023-11: $185.11 per share

- 2023-12: $187.91 per share

- 2024-01: $215.35 per share

- 2024-02: $256.41 per share

- 2024-03: $263.90 per share

- 2024-04: $280.44 per share

- 2024-05: $296.78 per share

- 2024-06: $313.79 per share

- 2024-07: $343.94 per share

- 2024-08: $342.88 per share

- 2024-09: $368.53 per share

- 2024-10: $385.10 per share

- 2024-11: $476.96 per share

- 2024-12: $447.38 per share

- 2025-01: $548.55 per share

- 2025-02: $608.01 per share

- 2025-03: $550.03 per share

- 2025-04: $613.98 per share

- 2025-05: $665.14 per share

- 2025-06: $767.34 per share

- 2025-07: $626.54 per share

- 2025-08: $681.88 per share

- 2025-09: $698.00 per share

- 2025-10: $655.32 per share

- 2025-11: $598.87 per share

- 2025-12: $580.71 per share

- 2026-01: $500.35 per share

- 2026-02: $514.94 per share

- 2026-03: $484.91 per share

- 2026-04: $446.55 per share

- 2026-05: $497.68 per share

- 2026-06: $459.13 per share

- 2026-07: $499.94 per share

- 2026-08: $543.62 per share

- 2026-09: $487.38 per share

- 2026-10: $527.45 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2025: low $49.42 per share, central $49.54 per share, high $49.69 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026006874/ck0001639920-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.