# Spirax Group (SPX.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SPX.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:40.796Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 7,335.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 3,433.43 per share, central GBX 3,842.51 per share, high GBX 4,387.08 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 3,842.51 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:40.796Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.4% at the stated quote. About 6.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.23×

- FY2017: 0.22×

- FY2018: 0.26×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.20×

- FY2021: 0.24×

- FY2022: 0.20×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.18×

- FY2025: 0.18×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 4.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 24.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 18.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 36.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 15.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 29.9%

- FY2017: 28.2%

- FY2018: 36.2%

- FY2019: 24.1%

- FY2020: 25.4%

- FY2021: 30.3%

- FY2022: 18.8%

- FY2023: 18.1%

- FY2024: 18.3%

- FY2025: 17.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 996M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 998M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -7.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 26.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.97×

- FY2022: 0.94×

- FY2023: 0.89×

- FY2024: 1.02×

- FY2025: 1.20×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.9% vs 18.1%

- Per-share earnings: 1.70 to 2.49 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: GBP 2.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 851M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 4.8%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.78

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 1.70

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 2.49

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.39

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 1.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 1.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 1.70

- FY2017: GBP 2.04

- FY2018: GBP 3.02

- FY2019: GBP 2.25

- FY2020: GBP 2.35

- FY2021: GBP 3.17

- FY2022: GBP 3.04

- FY2023: GBP 2.49

- FY2024: GBP 2.58

- FY2025: GBP 2.21

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.59×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.87×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.3%

- FY2017: -0.1%

- FY2018: 0.7%

- FY2019: -3.3%

- FY2020: -4.9%

- FY2021: -2.1%

- FY2022: -0.6%

- FY2023: -4.2%

- FY2024: -4.6%

- FY2025: -3.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 54% since Dec 2021 · sales +2.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.881Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +2.3%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31/reports/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-09.

- FY2016: GBP 757M 

- FY2017: GBP 999M 

- FY2018: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2020: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2021: GBP 1.3B 

- FY2022: GBP 1.6B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2024: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2025: GBP 1.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 31.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31/reports/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-09.

- FY2016: 76.1% 

- FY2017: 75.8% 

- FY2018: 75.4% 

- FY2019: 34.9% 

- FY2020: 33.4% 

- FY2021: 36.6% 

- FY2022: 35.8% 

- FY2023: 76.1% 

- FY2024: 20.1% 

- FY2025: 31.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty industrial machinery; annual sales are GBP 1.7 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31/reports/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-09); FY2025: revenue 1702900000; grossProfit 539700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SPX.LSE: Spirax Group plc provides thermal energy and fluid technology solutions in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas. It operates through three segments: Steam Thermal Solutions, Electric Thermal Solutions, and Watson-Marlow Fluid Technology Solutions. The company offers industrial and commercial steam systems, including condensate management, controls, and thermal energy management products and solutions for heating, curing, cooking, drying, cleaning, sterilizing, space heating, humidifying, vacuum packing, and producing hot water; electrical process heating and temperature management solutions, such as industrial heaters and systems, heat tracing, and various component technologies; and designs and manufactures peristaltic and niche pumps and associated fluid path technologies, including tubing, specialised filling systems and products for single use applications. The company serves food and beverage, pharmaceutical and biotechnology, oil and gas, chemical, power generation, healthcare, buildings, water and wastewater, semiconductor, transport, original equipment manufacturers machinery, and mining and precious metal processing industries. The company was formerly known as Spirax-Sarco Engineering plc and changed its name to Spirax Group PLC in June 2024. Spirax Group PLC was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Cheltenham, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 20.1% to 76.1% during 2023–25; it earns 24.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 76.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.1%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31/reports/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-09); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 31.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.29871072581626584],[2017,0.28235038783952693],[2018,0.36247746247097007],[2019,0.2410473027454805],[2020,0.25396635481546687],[2021,0.3028714855064573],[2022,0.18823621707869348],[2023,0.18112823131641723],[2024,0.18301785437137513],[2025,0.1785951811011191]]; median 0.2475068287804737. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 28100000; owner earnings 126100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 29700000; owner earnings 178900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 33500000; owner earnings 247700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 62400000; owner earnings 168820000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 49600000; owner earnings 192580000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 64100000; owner earnings 227480000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2022: growth capex 39000000; upkeep 78500000; owner earnings 211660000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1842577718983275.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2023: growth capex 8400000; upkeep 97000000; owner earnings 164260000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05113843906002679.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 74300000; owner earnings 195880000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31/reports/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-09); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 47800000; owner earnings 196860000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); Dividend observations: [[2016,52100000],[2017,58400000],[2018,67300000],[2019,76300000],[2020,82500000],[2021,91000000],[2022,103600000],[2023,114500000],[2024,119300000],[2025,122800000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SPX.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.5499999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12838581913748104. Price 7335; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.2682824990951103 → FY2025 2.668275095556941. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 4,412.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 4,271.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 4,184.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 4,305.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 4,449.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 4,769.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 5,200.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 5,675.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 5,350.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 5,560.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 5,620.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 5,525.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 5,650.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 5,765.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 5,620.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 5,675.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 5,710.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 5,755.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 5,765.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 6,180.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 6,520.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 6,945.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 7,130.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 7,300.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 6,470.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 6,135.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 6,240.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 6,405.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 6,665.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 7,190.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 8,250.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 8,360.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 9,185.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 8,995.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 8,025.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 7,845.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 7,925.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 8,925.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 8,890.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 8,920.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 8,395.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 8,165.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 8,728.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 9,870.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 9,976.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 10,310.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 10,245.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 11,065.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 11,280.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 11,135.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 11,295.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 11,080.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 10,710.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 11,400.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 11,815.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 12,700.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 13,615.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 15,010.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 16,110.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 14,970.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 15,605.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 15,630.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 16,050.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 13,255.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 11,945.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 12,535.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 12,150.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 10,565.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 9,878.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 11,935.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 10,535.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 10,400.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 10,750.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 11,205.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 10,615.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 11,530.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 11,685.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 11,855.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 11,090.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 10,925.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 10,365.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 11,125.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 10,135.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 9,526.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 8,192.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 9,248.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 10,505.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 10,005.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 10,325.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 10,050.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 8,845.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 8,910.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 8,480.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 9,060.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 7,695.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 7,515.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 6,455.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 7,170.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 6,855.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 8,095.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 7,275.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 6,180.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 5,875.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 5,715.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 5,955.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 6,345.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 7,295.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 6,815.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 7,095.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 6,705.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 6,820.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 7,265.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 7,905.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 6,675.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 7,168.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 6,965.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 6,835.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 6,945.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 7,110.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 7,255.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 7,335.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 2,006.49 per share, central GBX 2,553.03 per share, high GBX 2,960.16 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 2,984.78 per share, central GBX 4,271.17 per share, high GBX 4,990.21 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 3,991.64 per share, central GBX 5,721.15 per share, high GBX 6,685.76 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 3,639.97 per share, central GBX 4,301.10 per share, high GBX 4,942.23 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 3,348.86 per share, central GBX 3,905.12 per share, high GBX 4,495.30 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 3,868.01 per share, central GBX 4,567.06 per share, high GBX 5,263.41 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 4,423.05 per share, central GBX 5,192.66 per share, high GBX 5,979.34 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 3,969.64 per share, central GBX 4,638.70 per share, high GBX 5,327.58 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 3,767.27 per share, central GBX 4,390.72 per share, high GBX 5,043.74 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 3,421.66 per share, central GBX 3,830.84 per share, high GBX 4,375.54 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:21.041Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31/reports/213800WFVZQMHOZP2W17-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-09.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Spirax Group

SPX · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 7,335.00
Buy up to: GBX 3,842.51
Expected / yr: 6.4% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 12.3% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 20.4%
Worst year: 17.6%
Latest · 2025: 17.6%

Gross margin fell 4.5 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 24.8%
Worst year: 17.9%
Latest · 2025: 17.9%

Each $1 of profit left $1.00 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.00×
Annual median: 0.97×
Latest · 2025: 1.20×

Per-share value rose from 1.7 to 2.49, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 2.42
Worst year: GBP 1.70
Latest · 2025: GBP 2.21

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -3.6% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -3.4%
Worst year: 0.7%
Latest · 2025: -3.6%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 20.8%, three-year average owner earnings per share 2.51 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 4412.00 · Value 2553.03 · Buy at or below 2553.03; 2016-11 · Price GBX 4271.00 · Value 2553.03 · Buy at or below 2553.03; 2016-12 · Price GBX 4184.00 · Value 2553.03 · Buy at or below 2553.03; 2017-01 · Price GBX 4305.00 · Value 2553.03 · Buy at or below 2553.03; 2017-02 · Price GBX 4449.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2017-03 · Price GBX 4769.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2017-04 · Price GBX 5200.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2017-05 · Price GBX 5675.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2017-06 · Price GBX 5350.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2017-07 · Price GBX 5560.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2017-08 · Price GBX 5620.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2017-09 · Price GBX 5525.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2017-10 · Price GBX 5650.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2017-11 · Price GBX 5765.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2017-12 · Price GBX 5620.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2018-01 · Price GBX 5675.00 · Value 4271.17 · Buy at or below 4271.17; 2018-02 · Price GBX 5710.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2018-03 · Price GBX 5755.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2018-04 · Price GBX 5765.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2018-05 · Price GBX 6180.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2018-06 · Price GBX 6520.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2018-07 · Price GBX 6945.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2018-08 · Price GBX 7130.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2018-09 · Price GBX 7300.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2018-10 · Price GBX 6470.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2018-11 · Price GBX 6135.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2018-12 · Price GBX 6240.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2019-01 · Price GBX 6405.00 · Value 5721.15 · Buy at or below 5721.15; 2019-02 · Price GBX 6665.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2019-03 · Price GBX 7190.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2019-04 · Price GBX 8250.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2019-05 · Price GBX 8360.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2019-06 · Price GBX 9185.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2019-07 · Price GBX 8995.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2019-08 · Price GBX 8025.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2019-09 · Price GBX 7845.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2019-10 · Price GBX 7925.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2019-11 · Price GBX 8925.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2019-12 · Price GBX 8890.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2020-01 · Price GBX 8920.00 · Value 4301.10 · Buy at or below 4301.10; 2020-02 · Price GBX 8395.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2020-03 · Price GBX 8165.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2020-04 · Price GBX 8728.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2020-05 · Price GBX 9870.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2020-06 · Price GBX 9976.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2020-07 · Price GBX 10310.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2020-08 · Price GBX 10245.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2020-09 · Price GBX 11065.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2020-10 · Price GBX 11280.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2020-11 · Price GBX 11135.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2020-12 · Price GBX 11295.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2021-01 · Price GBX 11080.00 · Value 3905.12 · Buy at or below 3905.12; 2021-02 · Price GBX 10710.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2021-03 · Price GBX 11400.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2021-04 · Price GBX 11815.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2021-05 · Price GBX 12700.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2021-06 · Price GBX 13615.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2021-07 · Price GBX 15010.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2021-08 · Price GBX 16110.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2021-09 · Price GBX 14970.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2021-10 · Price GBX 15605.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2021-11 · Price GBX 15630.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2021-12 · Price GBX 16050.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2022-01 · Price GBX 13255.00 · Value 4567.06 · Buy at or below 4567.06; 2022-02 · Price GBX 11945.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2022-03 · Price GBX 12535.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2022-04 · Price GBX 12150.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2022-05 · Price GBX 10565.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2022-06 · Price GBX 9878.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2022-07 · Price GBX 11935.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2022-08 · Price GBX 10535.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2022-09 · Price GBX 10400.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2022-10 · Price GBX 10750.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2022-11 · Price GBX 11205.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2022-12 · Price GBX 10615.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2023-01 · Price GBX 11530.00 · Value 5192.66 · Buy at or below 5192.66; 2023-02 · Price GBX 11685.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2023-03 · Price GBX 11855.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2023-04 · Price GBX 11090.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2023-05 · Price GBX 10925.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2023-06 · Price GBX 10365.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2023-07 · Price GBX 11125.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2023-08 · Price GBX 10135.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2023-09 · Price GBX 9526.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2023-10 · Price GBX 8192.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2023-11 · Price GBX 9248.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2023-12 · Price GBX 10505.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2024-01 · Price GBX 10005.00 · Value 4638.70 · Buy at or below 4638.70; 2024-02 · Price GBX 10325.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2024-03 · Price GBX 10050.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2024-04 · Price GBX 8845.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2024-05 · Price GBX 8910.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2024-06 · Price GBX 8480.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2024-07 · Price GBX 9060.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2024-08 · Price GBX 7695.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2024-09 · Price GBX 7515.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2024-10 · Price GBX 6455.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2024-11 · Price GBX 7170.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2024-12 · Price GBX 6855.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2025-01 · Price GBX 8095.00 · Value 4390.72 · Buy at or below 4390.72; 2025-02 · Price GBX 7275.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2025-03 · Price GBX 6180.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2025-04 · Price GBX 5875.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2025-05 · Price GBX 5715.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2025-06 · Price GBX 5955.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2025-07 · Price GBX 6345.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2025-08 · Price GBX 7295.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2025-09 · Price GBX 6815.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2025-10 · Price GBX 7095.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2025-11 · Price GBX 6705.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2025-12 · Price GBX 6820.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2026-01 · Price GBX 7265.00 · Value 3830.84 · Buy at or below 3830.84; 2026-02 · Price GBX 7905.00 · Value 3842.51 · Buy at or below 3842.51; 2026-03 · Price GBX 6675.00 · Value 3842.51 · Buy at or below 3842.51; 2026-04 · Price GBX 7168.00 · Value 3842.51 · Buy at or below 3842.51; 2026-05 · Price GBX 6965.00 · Value 3842.51 · Buy at or below 3842.51; 2026-06 · Price GBX 6835.00 · Value 3842.51 · Buy at or below 3842.51; 2026-07 · Price GBX 6945.00 · Value 3842.51 · Buy at or below 3842.51; 2026-08 · Price GBX 7110.00 · Value 3842.51 · Buy at or below 3842.51; 2026-09 · Price GBX 7255.00 · Value 3842.51 · Buy at or below 3842.51; 2026-10 · Price GBX 7335.00 · Value 3842.51 · Buy at or below 3842.51; 2026-10 · Price GBX 7335.00 · Value 3842.51 · Buy at or below 3842.51

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 3,433.43 – GBX 4,387.08
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 3,842.51
Discount to value	1 − 7335.00 / 3842.51 = -90.9%
Return / year	About 6.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 271.44/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 466.48/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 1.7B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 197M

Owner earnings

Operating margin17.6%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -655M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares74M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·