# Serco Group (SRP.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SRP.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:43.982Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 270.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 286.32 per share, central GBX 324.59 per share, high GBX 375.53 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 324.59 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:43.982Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.5% at the stated quote. About 11.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.42×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.01×

- FY2017: 0.01×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 10.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 10.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 3

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.8%

- FY2017: 3.3%

- FY2018: 11.4%

- FY2019: 20.7%

- FY2020: 31.4%

- FY2021: 28.3%

- FY2022: 23.3%

- FY2023: 26.5%

- FY2024: 13.2%

- FY2025: 32.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.37×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 1.2B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 852M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.12×

- FY2022: 1.41×

- FY2023: 1.29×

- FY2024: 2.21×

- FY2025: 1.68×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.8% vs 26.5%

- Per-share earnings: -0.00 to 0.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP 1.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 494M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.14

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP -0.00

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.14

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.60

- Average buyback yield: 5.6%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 728M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 1.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 26.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP -0.00

- FY2017: GBP -0.00

- FY2018: GBP 0.06

- FY2019: GBP 0.04

- FY2020: GBP 0.11

- FY2021: GBP 0.25

- FY2022: GBP 0.13

- FY2023: GBP 0.18

- FY2024: GBP 0.04

- FY2025: GBP 0.14

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.14×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.93×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.25×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.5%

- FY2017: 1.0%

- FY2018: 4.2%

- FY2019: -2.5%

- FY2020: -5.6%

- FY2021: -1.7%

- FY2022: -6.2%

- FY2023: -7.3%

- FY2024: -14.1%

- FY2025: -10.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.5% a year for ten years · sales +1.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:10.189Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31/reports/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-18.

- FY2016: GBP 3.0B 

- FY2017: GBP 3.0B 

- FY2018: GBP 2.8B 

- FY2019: GBP 3.2B 

- FY2020: GBP 3.9B 

- FY2021: GBP 4.4B 

- FY2022: GBP 4.5B 

- FY2023: GBP 4.9B 

- FY2024: GBP 4.8B 

- FY2025: GBP 4.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 11.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31/reports/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-18.

- FY2016: 8.1% 

- FY2017: 8.4% 

- FY2018: 10.2% 

- FY2019: 9.9% 

- FY2020: 9.9% 

- FY2021: 10.6% 

- FY2022: 10.9% 

- FY2023: 10.2% 

- FY2024: 10.8% 

- FY2025: 11.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty business services; annual sales are GBP 4.9 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31/reports/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: revenue 4876800000; grossProfit 562000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SRP.LSE: Serco Group plc provides public services in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It offers service design and advisory, resourcing, programme management, systems integration, case management, engineering, and assets and facilities management services. The company also provides administrative and back office, asylum seeker accommodation or passenger transport services; and supports in the decarbonization journeys of customers. It serves the United Kingdom and Canadian governments, devolved authorities, and other public sector customers; and federal and civilian agencies, and various state and municipal governments in citizen services, defense, health and other facilities management, justice and immigration, and transport sectors. Serco Group plc was founded in 1929 and is based in Hook, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.2% to 11.5% during 2023–25; it earns 22% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 10.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10.8%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31/reports/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 11.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.03780840799448656],[2017,0.03263052208835342],[2018,0.11446197051291544],[2019,0.20744073748902547],[2020,0.3136549247224523],[2021,0.28339231878358895],[2022,0.23277598744146372],[2023,0.26475491026972053],[2024,0.1321947788025637],[2025,0.32479133079922895]]; median 0.2201083624652446. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 11% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31/reports/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.10577227319983727],[2022,0.108844287604764],[2023,0.1016660511305347]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 10 years; bought back GBP 76.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 32300000; owner earnings 17500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 36200000; owner earnings 10300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 35300000; owner earnings 74500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 24300000; owner earnings 52120000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 50100000; owner earnings 135580000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 32100000; owner earnings 341640000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 19400000; owner earnings 218400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 24700000; owner earnings 260160000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 34400000; owner earnings 97700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31/reports/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 21500000; owner earnings 244720000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,26500000],[2019,26500000],[2020,26500000],[2021,26500000],[2022,30300000],[2023,33700000],[2024,38400000],[2025,43300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31/reports/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 76600000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SRP.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.146 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03354325364147531. Price 270.2; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.15541037909458963 → FY2025 0.23484522785898537. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 137.20 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 133.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 143.30 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 144.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 117.80 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 115.50 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 115.60 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 118.70 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 114.90 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 111.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 117.70 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 115.30 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 116.60 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 95.05 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 98.90 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 88.70 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 91.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 88.20 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 96.25 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 92.90 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 98.95 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 101.10 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 97.65 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 97.80 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 96.10 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 89.70 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 95.60 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 110.40 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 129.30 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 128.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 124.60 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 132.80 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 144.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 147.40 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 145.90 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 149.20 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 156.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 155.60 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 161.90 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 158.10 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 152.60 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 122.90 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 128.80 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 126.80 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 152.50 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 159.40 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 140.60 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 127.20 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 129.40 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 113.60 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 119.50 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 117.30 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 130.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 137.60 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 140.10 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 135.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 135.70 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 141.40 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 133.30 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 134.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 126.30 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 131.60 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 134.60 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 133.80 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 133.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 144.10 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 152.10 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 176.20 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 174.20 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 188.30 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 175.10 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 156.30 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 163.40 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 171.20 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 155.40 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 145.90 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 156.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 153.40 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 152.10 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 142.90 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 155.70 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 155.30 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 152.90 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 149.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 143.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 156.40 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 162.10 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 173.50 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 187.30 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 189.70 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 183.20 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 178.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 179.70 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 191.50 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 174.60 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 178.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 175.10 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 156.70 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 151.30 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 155.40 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 163.40 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 157.40 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 171.70 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 186.50 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 202.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 209.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 218.40 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 236.80 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 253.80 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 255.60 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 279.20 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 300.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 301.20 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 285.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 281.40 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 264.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 219.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 241.60 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 259.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 255.20 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 270.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 28.39 per share, central GBX 30.82 per share, high GBX 34.04 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 15.22 per share, central GBX 16.64 per share, high GBX 18.54 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 10.05 per share, central GBX 11.37 per share, high GBX 13.12 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 18.95 per share, central GBX 21.28 per share, high GBX 24.39 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 76.59 per share, central GBX 84.25 per share, high GBX 94.45 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 112.95 per share, central GBX 127.28 per share, high GBX 146.36 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 143.07 per share, central GBX 162.80 per share, high GBX 189.06 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 233.07 per share, central GBX 265.20 per share, high GBX 307.98 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 258.08 per share, central GBX 292.48 per share, high GBX 338.26 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 266.46 per share, central GBX 301.85 per share, high GBX 348.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:34.351Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31/reports/549300PT2CIHYN5GWJ21-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.