# Sasol (SSL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SSL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:05.968Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: ZAR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $15.92 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $16.11 per share, central $17.78 per share, high $19.99 per share. Buy at or below the central value $17.78 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:05.968Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.1% at the stated quote. About 11.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.30×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.19×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.15×

- FY2026: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 17.6pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 17.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 48.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -1.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 8.8%

- FY2018: 5.7%

- FY2019: 5.5%

- FY2020: 3.3%

- FY2021: 10.9%

- FY2022: 14.3%

- FY2023: 5.8%

- FY2024: 16.5%

- FY2025: 11.2%

- FY2026: 19.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.26×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: ZAR 8.9B

- Net income, five-year total: ZAR 35B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 9.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.33×

- FY2025: -0.69×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.7% vs 16.5%

- Per-share earnings: 21.66 to 10.54 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: ZAR -183B

- Cumulative retained earnings: ZAR -73B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -8.6%

- Per-share value change: ZAR -11.11

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: ZAR 21.66

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: ZAR 10.54

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: ZAR 1.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: ZAR -15B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: ZAR 33.27

- FY2018: ZAR 14.17

- FY2019: ZAR 5.46

- FY2020: ZAR -147.44

- FY2021: ZAR 14.39

- FY2022: ZAR 61.36

- FY2023: ZAR 32.51

- FY2024: ZAR -65.11

- FY2025: ZAR 10.54

- FY2026: ZAR 19.37

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.72×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.2%

- FY2018: -5.7%

- FY2019: -8.3%

- FY2020: -25.6%

- FY2021: -6.9%

- FY2022: -0.3%

- FY2023: -6.4%

- FY2024: -22.4%

- FY2025: -8.8%

- FY2026: -5.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 39% since May 2022 · sales +7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:37.765Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-22: Sasol expects over 20% EPS growth for FY25, on track to meet financial targets ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4469722-sasol-expects-over-20-eps-growth-for-fy25-on-track-to-meet-financial-targets?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-08-25: Sasol returns to profit as cost controls, Transnet payout lift results; stock up ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/sasol-returns-to-profit-as-cost-controls-transnet-payout-lift-results-stock-up-4208180))

- 2026-06-15: Sasol downgraded at J.P. Morgan on likelihood of weaker than forecast earnings ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4603692-sasol-downgraded-at-jp-morgan-on-likelihood-of-weaker-than-forecast-earnings?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314590/000110465926104048/ssl-20260630x20f.htm; observed 2026-09-01.

- FY2017: ZAR 172B 

- FY2018: ZAR 181B 

- FY2019: ZAR 204B 

- FY2020: ZAR 190B 

- FY2021: ZAR 202B 

- FY2022: ZAR 273B 

- FY2023: ZAR 290B 

- FY2024: ZAR 275B 

- FY2025: ZAR 249B 

- FY2026: ZAR 266B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 30.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314590/000110465926104048/ssl-20260630x20f.htm; observed 2026-09-01.

- FY2017: 53.5% 

- FY2018: 52.7% 

- FY2019: 50.5% 

- FY2020: 47.2% 

- FY2021: 51.7% 

- FY2022: 49.7% 

- FY2023: 41.7% 

- FY2024: 44.2% 

- FY2025: 42.5% 

- FY2026: 30.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty chemicals; annual sales are ZAR 266.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314590/000110465926104048/ssl-20260630x20f.htm (filed 2026-09-01); FY2026: revenue 266456362000; grossProfit 82036888000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SSL.US: Sasol Limited operates as a chemical and energy company in South Africa, Mozambique, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It offers bitumen, industrial heating fuels, naphtha, lubricants and lubricant base oils, liquefied petroleum gas, automotive and industrial lubricants, greases, cleansers and degreasers, automotive fuels, and burner fuels, as well as illuminating paraffin transport fuels, such as petrol, diesel, and jet fuels. The company also provides methane rich and natural gas; leaners and degreasers; hydrocarbon liquid fuel; specialty gas, butane, and propane; gasoline, kerosene (jet fuel), olefins, alcohols, polymers, solvents, surfactants, co-monomers, ammonia, methanol, crude tar acids, sulphur, and fuel oil; gas to liquid fuel; sustainable aviation fuel; and other fuels, as well as engages in the wholesale of motor fuels. In addition, it is involved in engineering, research and development, and technology transfer; management of cash resources, investments, and procurement of loans; development and implementation of international gas to liquid and CTL ventures; marketing of fuels and lubricants; production, trading, and transportation of oil products, petrochemicals and chemical products, and derivatives; and coal mining activities. The company serves adhesives, agriculture and forestry, automotive and transportation, aviation, burner fuels, chemicals, construction and materials, corrosion protection, electrical and electronics, flavors and fragrances, furniture, health and medical, household and consumer goods, industrial products, lubricants, manufacturing, mining, packaging, paints and coatings, personal care, pharmaceuticals, plastics and polymers, publishing and inks, pulp and paper, rubber and tires, specialty graphite, steel and foundry, textile and leather, water treatment, and other industries. Sasol Limited was founded in 1950 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.8% to 44.2% during 2024–26; it earns 9.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-01); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 44.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-01); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 42.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314590/000110465926104048/ssl-20260630x20f.htm (filed 2026-09-01); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 30.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-01); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.08806971028044175],[2018,0.05677801557708007],[2019,0.05486690849940917],[2020,0.03269326148568019],[2021,0.10855798885579691],[2022,0.14260029469310911],[2023,0.05800842132170727],[2024,0.16481114811538394],[2025,0.11157244604701808],[2026,0.19448318040117438]]; median 0.09831384956811934. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 60.8% of cash earnings; earns 9.2% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-01); FY2019: growth capex 34656190974.374664; upkeep 21124809025.625336; owner earnings 78190974.3746643. Growth capex / owner earnings = 443.22495341104326.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-01); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 16372000000; owner earnings 10304000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-01); FY2022: growth capex 9069000000; upkeep 14073000000; owner earnings 38956000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23280110894342335.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-01); FY2023: growth capex 14235000000; upkeep 16491000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 21520000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6614776951672863.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314590/000110465926104048/ssl-20260630x20f.htm (filed 2026-09-01); FY2026: growth capex 7227433000; upkeep 13318999000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 11896230000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6075397836121191.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-01); Incremental return on capital 0.09152557576086578, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-01); Dividend observations: [[2017,9617000000],[2018,7952000000],[2019,9952000000],[2020,31000000],[2021,46000000],[2022,49000000],[2023,13754000000],[2024,7633000000],[2025,1541781],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SSL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.016 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-01); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.025824754689184493. Price 15.92; FX 0.06064; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -72.26788930735222 → FY2026 19.374967426710096. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $27.51 per share

- 2016-11: $26.66 per share

- 2016-12: $28.59 per share

- 2017-01: $29.86 per share

- 2017-02: $28.36 per share

- 2017-03: $29.40 per share

- 2017-04: $30.52 per share

- 2017-05: $29.78 per share

- 2017-06: $27.95 per share

- 2017-07: $30.14 per share

- 2017-08: $30.13 per share

- 2017-09: $27.53 per share

- 2017-10: $29.11 per share

- 2017-11: $31.49 per share

- 2017-12: $34.21 per share

- 2018-01: $35.78 per share

- 2018-02: $34.47 per share

- 2018-03: $34.03 per share

- 2018-04: $35.53 per share

- 2018-05: $36.38 per share

- 2018-06: $36.54 per share

- 2018-07: $39.61 per share

- 2018-08: $39.26 per share

- 2018-09: $38.64 per share

- 2018-10: $32.52 per share

- 2018-11: $29.48 per share

- 2018-12: $29.29 per share

- 2019-01: $30.21 per share

- 2019-02: $30.54 per share

- 2019-03: $30.94 per share

- 2019-04: $33.00 per share

- 2019-05: $24.89 per share

- 2019-06: $24.85 per share

- 2019-07: $21.68 per share

- 2019-08: $18.92 per share

- 2019-09: $17.01 per share

- 2019-10: $18.10 per share

- 2019-11: $18.03 per share

- 2019-12: $21.61 per share

- 2020-01: $15.77 per share

- 2020-02: $12.35 per share

- 2020-03: $2.01 per share

- 2020-04: $4.78 per share

- 2020-05: $5.14 per share

- 2020-06: $7.71 per share

- 2020-07: $8.03 per share

- 2020-08: $8.02 per share

- 2020-09: $7.60 per share

- 2020-10: $5.26 per share

- 2020-11: $7.46 per share

- 2020-12: $8.86 per share

- 2021-01: $10.44 per share

- 2021-02: $12.56 per share

- 2021-03: $14.49 per share

- 2021-04: $16.71 per share

- 2021-05: $16.36 per share

- 2021-06: $15.33 per share

- 2021-07: $14.94 per share

- 2021-08: $15.37 per share

- 2021-09: $18.84 per share

- 2021-10: $16.76 per share

- 2021-11: $16.28 per share

- 2021-12: $16.40 per share

- 2022-01: $22.32 per share

- 2022-02: $22.97 per share

- 2022-03: $24.18 per share

- 2022-04: $24.26 per share

- 2022-05: $26.01 per share

- 2022-06: $23.06 per share

- 2022-07: $21.04 per share

- 2022-08: $19.30 per share

- 2022-09: $15.75 per share

- 2022-10: $16.83 per share

- 2022-11: $17.51 per share

- 2022-12: $15.71 per share

- 2023-01: $18.32 per share

- 2023-02: $14.45 per share

- 2023-03: $13.65 per share

- 2023-04: $13.02 per share

- 2023-05: $11.56 per share

- 2023-06: $12.38 per share

- 2023-07: $14.07 per share

- 2023-08: $12.89 per share

- 2023-09: $13.67 per share

- 2023-10: $12.51 per share

- 2023-11: $11.03 per share

- 2023-12: $9.94 per share

- 2024-01: $8.55 per share

- 2024-02: $7.58 per share

- 2024-03: $7.81 per share

- 2024-04: $7.03 per share

- 2024-05: $6.82 per share

- 2024-06: $7.61 per share

- 2024-07: $8.06 per share

- 2024-08: $7.61 per share

- 2024-09: $6.76 per share

- 2024-10: $5.71 per share

- 2024-11: $5.01 per share

- 2024-12: $4.56 per share

- 2025-01: $4.70 per share

- 2025-02: $4.37 per share

- 2025-03: $4.23 per share

- 2025-04: $3.48 per share

- 2025-05: $4.44 per share

- 2025-06: $4.42 per share

- 2025-07: $5.12 per share

- 2025-08: $6.74 per share

- 2025-09: $6.22 per share

- 2025-10: $6.33 per share

- 2025-11: $6.50 per share

- 2025-12: $6.51 per share

- 2026-01: $7.12 per share

- 2026-02: $8.92 per share

- 2026-03: $12.96 per share

- 2026-04: $13.82 per share

- 2026-05: $12.37 per share

- 2026-06: $9.82 per share

- 2026-07: $11.70 per share

- 2026-08: $12.02 per share

- 2026-09: $13.82 per share

- 2026-10: $15.92 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2022: low $3.72 per share, central $3.76 per share, high $3.79 per share

- FY2023: low $19.21 per share, central $21.26 per share, high $23.97 per share

- FY2024: low $18.24 per share, central $21.27 per share, high $24.16 per share

- FY2025: low $17.06 per share, central $18.87 per share, high $21.28 per share

- FY2026: low $17.17 per share, central $18.94 per share, high $21.29 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314590/000110465926104048/ssl-20260630x20f.htm); period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-09-01.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.