# Stagwell (STGW.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/STGW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:07.507Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $9.13 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $9.73 per share, central $11.05 per share, high $12.80 per share. Buy at or below the central value $11.05 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:07.507Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.6% at the stated quote. About 11.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.34×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- LTM to Mar 2026: 0.05×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 3

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 23.5%

- FY2017: 21.2%

- FY2018: 10.6%

- FY2019: 9.6%

- FY2020: 41.6%

- FY2021: 20.7%

- FY2022: 39.6%

- FY2023: 25.5%

- FY2024: 28.5%

- FY2025: 15.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 9.66×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $700M

- Net income, five-year total: $72M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 4.17×

- FY2022: 9.70×

- FY2023: 1,322.43×

- FY2024: 7.90×

- FY2025: 7.70×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 21.2% vs 25.5%

- Per-share earnings: -0.64 to 0.02 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 18.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 29.4%

- Market cap gain: $957M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $615M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 18.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 29.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.66

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.64

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.02

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.31

- Average buyback yield: 7.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $412M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $219M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 21.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 25.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.89

- FY2017: $4.36

- FY2018: -$2.16

- FY2019: $0.27

- FY2020: $0.77

- FY2021: $0.23

- FY2022: $0.07

- FY2023: $0.00

- FY2024: $0.02

- FY2025: $0.11

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -6.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 18.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 10.00×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 3.20×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.3%

- FY2017: 9.8%

- FY2018: -8.9%

- FY2019: -4.9%

- FY2020: -8.1%

- FY2021: -3.7%

- FY2022: -8.2%

- FY2023: -2.1%

- FY2024: -3.6%

- FY2025: -6.2%

## Holders

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.5% a year for ten years · "Is Stagwell (STGW) Fully Priced As Strong Earnings Lift Its Outlook?" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +1.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:38.054Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-31: Stagwell Non-GAAP EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.01, revenue of $707M beats by $14.22M ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4475411-stagwell-non-gaap-eps-of-0_17-beats-by-0_01-revenue-of-707m-beats-by-14_22m?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-11: Stagwell’s Palantir pact boosts shares, slashes labor needs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stagwell-palantir-pact-boosts-shares-183300607.html))

- 2026-07-30: Stagwell raises full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $1.03-$1.17 while maintaining $475M-$525M adjusted EBITDA target ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4621879-stagwell-raises-full-year-adjusted-eps-guidance-to-1_03-1_17-while-maintaining-475m-525m?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/876883/000087688326000010/stgw-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-13.

- FY2017: $1.5B 

- FY2018: $1.5B 

- FY2019: $629M 

- FY2020: $888M 

- FY2021: $1.5B 

- FY2022: $2.7B 

- FY2023: $2.5B 

- FY2024: $2.8B 

- FY2025: $2.9B 

- FY2026: $3.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 36.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/876883/000087688326000010/stgw-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-13.

- FY2016: 29.1% 

- FY2017: 29.5% 

- FY2018: 29.7% 

- FY2019: 40.1% 

- FY2020: 35.6% 

- FY2021: 38.3% 

- FY2022: 37.7% 

- FY2023: 35.9% 

- FY2024: 35.1% 

- FY2025: 36.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in advertising agencies; annual sales are USD 2.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/876883/000087688326000010/stgw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2025: revenue 2909000000; grossProfit 1063042000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); STGW.US: Stagwell Inc. provides digital transformation, marketing, media and commerce, marketing cloud, and communications services in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers creative, research, experiential, and social media solutions designed to build and elevate brands; and consumer insights through advanced research methodologies, creating immersive experiential marketing programs and social engagement strategies that connect brands with audiences across digital platforms. It also designs, implements, and activates digital ecosystems that enable brand and customer experiences through the integration of strategy, design, and technology; provides managed services, staff augmentation, and engineering expertise across various delivery models, offering system integration, full-stack development, and ongoing platform management; and provides digital transformation that connects digital ecosystems to physical experiences through innovative, technology-driven customer engagements. In addition, the company offers integrated AI-based data solutions that drive audience engagement and business growth through media buying, owned media platforms, commerce enablement, and customer relationship management strategies; specialized media platforms and translation services to support targeted communication and market expansion; an edge set of solutions designed to help organizations build, protect, and enhance their reputation across diverse audiences and channels; and expertise in targeted communications, crisis management, and stakeholder engagement services. Further, the company provides a suite of technology solutions for in-house marketers and combining SaaS and DaaS offerings. Stagwell Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.1% to 36.5% during 2023–25; it earns 22.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 35.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/876883/000087688326000010/stgw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 36.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.2351828952721496],[2017,0.21229404877116265],[2018,0.10573478006667662],[2019,0.09613259499357306],[2020,0.4161791912645033],[2021,0.2067599763880888],[2022,0.3964291911907459],[2023,0.25453462065862953],[2024,0.28540480349256253],[2025,0.15555158380166584]]; median 0.22373847202165614. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 2.8% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 7 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 32958000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 252364000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 12472000; cash acquisitions 4823000; owner earnings 41661000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1157677444132402.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 13994000; cash acquisitions 14732000; owner earnings 83387000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.17667022437550217.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 22626000; cash acquisitions 150346000; owner earnings 87715786.30289532. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.7140130224773165.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 35437000; cash acquisitions 74234000; owner earnings 193123000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3843871522294082.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 42413000; cash acquisitions 23339000; owner earnings 177205000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1317062159645608.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 54006000; cash acquisitions 103254000; owner earnings 17842437.82942022. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 5.786989479080347.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/876883/000087688326000010/stgw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 43741000; cash acquisitions 6179000; owner earnings 224104000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.027572020133509442.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,32918000],[2017,284000],[2018,196000],[2019,40212000],[2020,115543000],[2021,204929000],[2022,28274000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/876883/000087688326000010/stgw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 134261000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 59.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); STGW.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 59.711000000000006 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03450119613424471. Price 9.13; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.07021514184120302 → FY2025 0.8472004324765711. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $8.45 per share

- 2016-11: $6.20 per share

- 2016-12: $6.55 per share

- 2017-01: $6.40 per share

- 2017-02: $8.75 per share

- 2017-03: $9.40 per share

- 2017-04: $8.95 per share

- 2017-05: $8.30 per share

- 2017-06: $9.90 per share

- 2017-07: $9.90 per share

- 2017-08: $10.20 per share

- 2017-09: $11.00 per share

- 2017-10: $11.50 per share

- 2017-11: $11.60 per share

- 2017-12: $9.75 per share

- 2018-01: $9.00 per share

- 2018-02: $7.85 per share

- 2018-03: $7.20 per share

- 2018-04: $7.55 per share

- 2018-05: $4.15 per share

- 2018-06: $4.60 per share

- 2018-07: $5.10 per share

- 2018-08: $4.85 per share

- 2018-09: $4.15 per share

- 2018-10: $2.47 per share

- 2018-11: $2.64 per share

- 2018-12: $2.61 per share

- 2019-01: $2.97 per share

- 2019-02: $3.32 per share

- 2019-03: $2.25 per share

- 2019-04: $2.10 per share

- 2019-05: $2.80 per share

- 2019-06: $2.52 per share

- 2019-07: $2.50 per share

- 2019-08: $2.35 per share

- 2019-09: $2.82 per share

- 2019-10: $3.13 per share

- 2019-11: $2.33 per share

- 2019-12: $2.78 per share

- 2020-01: $2.27 per share

- 2020-02: $2.51 per share

- 2020-03: $1.45 per share

- 2020-04: $1.43 per share

- 2020-05: $1.32 per share

- 2020-06: $2.08 per share

- 2020-07: $2.21 per share

- 2020-08: $2.19 per share

- 2020-09: $1.61 per share

- 2020-10: $2.34 per share

- 2020-11: $2.30 per share

- 2020-12: $2.51 per share

- 2021-01: $2.75 per share

- 2021-02: $3.16 per share

- 2021-03: $3.12 per share

- 2021-04: $4.46 per share

- 2021-05: $4.66 per share

- 2021-06: $5.85 per share

- 2021-07: $5.61 per share

- 2021-08: $6.98 per share

- 2021-09: $7.67 per share

- 2021-10: $8.68 per share

- 2021-11: $7.72 per share

- 2021-12: $8.67 per share

- 2022-01: $7.47 per share

- 2022-02: $7.58 per share

- 2022-03: $7.24 per share

- 2022-04: $6.78 per share

- 2022-05: $7.91 per share

- 2022-06: $5.43 per share

- 2022-07: $6.61 per share

- 2022-08: $6.78 per share

- 2022-09: $6.95 per share

- 2022-10: $7.59 per share

- 2022-11: $7.46 per share

- 2022-12: $6.21 per share

- 2023-01: $7.02 per share

- 2023-02: $6.86 per share

- 2023-03: $7.42 per share

- 2023-04: $6.22 per share

- 2023-05: $6.20 per share

- 2023-06: $7.21 per share

- 2023-07: $6.71 per share

- 2023-08: $5.45 per share

- 2023-09: $4.69 per share

- 2023-10: $4.12 per share

- 2023-11: $5.02 per share

- 2023-12: $6.63 per share

- 2024-01: $6.52 per share

- 2024-02: $5.34 per share

- 2024-03: $6.22 per share

- 2024-04: $5.95 per share

- 2024-05: $6.93 per share

- 2024-06: $6.82 per share

- 2024-07: $6.68 per share

- 2024-08: $7.19 per share

- 2024-09: $7.02 per share

- 2024-10: $6.21 per share

- 2024-11: $7.86 per share

- 2024-12: $6.58 per share

- 2025-01: $6.24 per share

- 2025-02: $6.49 per share

- 2025-03: $6.05 per share

- 2025-04: $5.58 per share

- 2025-05: $4.46 per share

- 2025-06: $4.50 per share

- 2025-07: $5.73 per share

- 2025-08: $5.64 per share

- 2025-09: $5.63 per share

- 2025-10: $4.75 per share

- 2025-11: $5.36 per share

- 2025-12: $4.89 per share

- 2026-01: $6.01 per share

- 2026-02: $4.82 per share

- 2026-03: $6.29 per share

- 2026-04: $6.27 per share

- 2026-05: $7.01 per share

- 2026-06: $7.43 per share

- 2026-07: $8.45 per share

- 2026-08: $8.68 per share

- 2026-09: $8.14 per share

- 2026-10: $9.13 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $9.85 per share, central $11.07 per share, high $12.69 per share

- FY2021: low $12.77 per share, central $14.39 per share, high $16.55 per share

- FY2022: low $6.86 per share, central $7.76 per share, high $8.97 per share

- FY2023: low $16.10 per share, central $18.28 per share, high $21.19 per share

- FY2024: low $18.87 per share, central $21.46 per share, high $24.92 per share

- FY2025: low $8.60 per share, central $9.77 per share, high $11.31 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/876883/000087688326000010/stgw-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.