# Steel Dynamics (STLD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/STLD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:10.979Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $240.76 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $103.66 per share, central $117.80 per share, high $136.63 per share. Buy at or below the central value $117.80 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:10.979Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.3% at the stated quote. About 6.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.39×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.23×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.08×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.11×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 14.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 21.3%

- FY2018: 27.7%

- FY2019: 16.2%

- FY2020: 12.2%

- FY2021: 43.0%

- FY2022: 46.6%

- FY2023: 25.9%

- FY2024: 13.7%

- FY2025: 9.8%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 12.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.74×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $7.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $11B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 13.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.50×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.86×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 21.3% vs 13.7%

- Per-share earnings: 1.56 to 9.84 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -6.9%

- Market cap gain: $16B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $13B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -6.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 25.9%

- Per-share value change: $8.29

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.56

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.84

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.94

- Average buyback yield: 5.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $263M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $16B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 21.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.56

- FY2017: $3.36

- FY2018: $5.35

- FY2019: $3.04

- FY2020: $2.59

- FY2021: $15.56

- FY2022: $20.92

- FY2023: $14.64

- FY2024: $9.84

- FY2025: $7.99

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.15×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.22×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.3%

- FY2017: 1.1%

- FY2018: -2.0%

- FY2019: -8.8%

- FY2020: -4.7%

- FY2021: 8.1%

- FY2022: -4.2%

- FY2023: -7.2%

- FY2024: -2.1%

- FY2025: -1.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.9% a year for ten years · sales +13%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:59.427Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-09-16: Steel Dynamics Expects Third-Quarter Earnings to Rise Annually, Sequentially ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/steel-dynamics-expects-third-quarter-102548611.html))

- 2025-10-21: STLD's Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record Steel Shipments ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stlds-q3-earnings-beat-estimates-154300276.html))

- 2026-01-26: Steel Dynamics shares rise as fourth quarter earnings beat expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/steel-dynamics-shares-rise-fourth-125743678.html))

- 2026-04-21: Steel Dynamics Sees Strong Demand For Years Amid Trump Tariffs; STLD, Nucor Break Out ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/442a4886-3cce-3092-b4f8-d7f9550dbb11/steel-dynamics-sees-strong.html))

- 2026-06-18: Steel Dynamics slips after issuing downside Q2 earnings guidance; Nucor tops outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4604624-steel-dynamics-slips-after-issuing-downside-q2-earnings-guidance-nucor-tops-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-21: Steel Dynamics Second-Quarter Results Top Street Views Amid Higher Steel Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/steel-dynamics-second-quarter-results-105914910.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +13%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926021395/stld-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: $9.5B 

- FY2018: $12B 

- FY2019: $10B 

- FY2020: $9.6B 

- FY2021: $18B 

- FY2022: $22B 

- FY2023: $19B 

- FY2024: $18B 

- FY2025: $18B 

- FY2026: $21B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 14.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926021395/stld-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: 16.6% 

- FY2018: 19.6% 

- FY2019: 14.6% 

- FY2020: 14.9% 

- FY2021: 29.1% 

- FY2022: 27.5% 

- FY2023: 21.5% 

- FY2024: 16.0% 

- FY2025: 13.0% 

- FY2026: 14.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in steel; annual sales are USD 18.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926021395/stld-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 18176581000; grossProfit 2364280000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); STLD.US: Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot rolled, cold rolled, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing steel bars, standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars; channels, angles, flats, merchant rounds, and reinforcing steel bars; and specialty shapes and light structural steel products. This segment also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agricultural equipment, energy, and pipe and tube markets. The Metals Recycling Operations segment is involved in the ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal processing, transportation, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces steel non-residential building components, such as steel joists, joist girders, and steel deck products for non-residential steel fabricators, metal building companies, general construction contractors, developers, property owners, brokers, and governmental entities. The Aluminum Operations segment offers recycled aluminum flat rolled products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 13% to 21.5% during 2023–25; it earns 18.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 21.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 16%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926021395/stld-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 13%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.21288277114165957],[2018,0.2767538120334521],[2019,0.16214340848269243],[2020,0.1219235149201109],[2021,0.4301683445549101],[2022,0.4660092637336899],[2023,0.2586584211802105],[2024,0.13726413594986708],[2025,0.09846521088449435],[2026,0.12745166331661675]]; median 0.18751308981217601. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Ferrous and nonferrous scrap average selling prices increased 2% and 7%, respectively, during 2025 compared to 2024.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926021395/stld-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Net sales for our metals recycling operations in 2025 increased 5% compared to 2024, driven by increased ferrous volumes and increased selling prices for both ferrous and nonferrous metals. Ferrous and nonferrous scrap average selling prices increased 2% and 7%, respectively, during 2025 compared to 2024. Ferrous shipments increased 5% and nonferrous shipments decreased 5% in 2025 compared to 2024.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 22.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 13.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 198160000; owner earnings 480064000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 164935000; owner earnings 946805000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 239390000; owner earnings 1336187000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 451945000; owner earnings 540240000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 658586000; upkeep 347653000; owner earnings 3214066000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20490742878335416.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 524700000; upkeep 384202000; owner earnings 3862674000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13583854086573188.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1657905000; owner earnings 1230781000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1868006000; owner earnings 148035000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926021395/stld-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 228019445.9048518; upkeep 720005554.0951482; owner earnings 1016979445.9048518. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22421244286011383.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Incremental return on capital 0.13607210783423915, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,135767000],[2017,145565000],[2018,168913000],[2019,200271000],[2020,209248000],[2021,212968000],[2022,237163000],[2023,271317000],[2024,282616000],[2025,291176000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926021395/stld-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 900870000 USD.

### What could break it

"Our aluminum operations depend on a core group of significant customers." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926021395/stld-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Our aluminum operations depend on a core group of significant customers.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 42%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13010578956225005. Price 240.76; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.20570042600313201 → FY2025 6.852776514816661. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $27.46 per share

- 2016-11: $35.48 per share

- 2016-12: $35.58 per share

- 2017-01: $33.81 per share

- 2017-02: $36.60 per share

- 2017-03: $34.76 per share

- 2017-04: $36.14 per share

- 2017-05: $33.99 per share

- 2017-06: $35.81 per share

- 2017-07: $35.41 per share

- 2017-08: $34.45 per share

- 2017-09: $34.47 per share

- 2017-10: $37.21 per share

- 2017-11: $38.50 per share

- 2017-12: $43.13 per share

- 2018-01: $45.40 per share

- 2018-02: $46.25 per share

- 2018-03: $44.22 per share

- 2018-04: $44.81 per share

- 2018-05: $49.43 per share

- 2018-06: $45.95 per share

- 2018-07: $47.09 per share

- 2018-08: $45.73 per share

- 2018-09: $45.19 per share

- 2018-10: $39.60 per share

- 2018-11: $35.20 per share

- 2018-12: $30.04 per share

- 2019-01: $36.59 per share

- 2019-02: $37.32 per share

- 2019-03: $35.27 per share

- 2019-04: $31.68 per share

- 2019-05: $25.15 per share

- 2019-06: $30.20 per share

- 2019-07: $31.51 per share

- 2019-08: $27.00 per share

- 2019-09: $29.80 per share

- 2019-10: $30.36 per share

- 2019-11: $33.73 per share

- 2019-12: $34.04 per share

- 2020-01: $29.88 per share

- 2020-02: $26.63 per share

- 2020-03: $22.54 per share

- 2020-04: $24.27 per share

- 2020-05: $26.56 per share

- 2020-06: $26.09 per share

- 2020-07: $27.41 per share

- 2020-08: $29.52 per share

- 2020-09: $28.63 per share

- 2020-10: $31.48 per share

- 2020-11: $36.21 per share

- 2020-12: $36.87 per share

- 2021-01: $34.27 per share

- 2021-02: $41.58 per share

- 2021-03: $50.76 per share

- 2021-04: $54.22 per share

- 2021-05: $62.43 per share

- 2021-06: $59.60 per share

- 2021-07: $64.45 per share

- 2021-08: $67.49 per share

- 2021-09: $58.48 per share

- 2021-10: $66.08 per share

- 2021-11: $59.80 per share

- 2021-12: $62.07 per share

- 2022-01: $55.52 per share

- 2022-02: $70.58 per share

- 2022-03: $83.43 per share

- 2022-04: $85.75 per share

- 2022-05: $85.38 per share

- 2022-06: $66.15 per share

- 2022-07: $77.88 per share

- 2022-08: $80.72 per share

- 2022-09: $70.95 per share

- 2022-10: $94.05 per share

- 2022-11: $103.93 per share

- 2022-12: $97.70 per share

- 2023-01: $120.64 per share

- 2023-02: $126.11 per share

- 2023-03: $113.06 per share

- 2023-04: $103.95 per share

- 2023-05: $91.90 per share

- 2023-06: $108.93 per share

- 2023-07: $106.58 per share

- 2023-08: $106.59 per share

- 2023-09: $107.22 per share

- 2023-10: $106.51 per share

- 2023-11: $119.13 per share

- 2023-12: $118.10 per share

- 2024-01: $120.69 per share

- 2024-02: $133.82 per share

- 2024-03: $148.23 per share

- 2024-04: $130.12 per share

- 2024-05: $133.87 per share

- 2024-06: $129.50 per share

- 2024-07: $133.22 per share

- 2024-08: $119.51 per share

- 2024-09: $126.08 per share

- 2024-10: $130.50 per share

- 2024-11: $145.27 per share

- 2024-12: $114.07 per share

- 2025-01: $128.20 per share

- 2025-02: $135.07 per share

- 2025-03: $125.08 per share

- 2025-04: $129.71 per share

- 2025-05: $123.07 per share

- 2025-06: $128.01 per share

- 2025-07: $127.56 per share

- 2025-08: $130.92 per share

- 2025-09: $139.43 per share

- 2025-10: $156.80 per share

- 2025-11: $167.83 per share

- 2025-12: $169.45 per share

- 2026-01: $179.57 per share

- 2026-02: $193.13 per share

- 2026-03: $180.00 per share

- 2026-04: $228.66 per share

- 2026-05: $260.15 per share

- 2026-06: $229.46 per share

- 2026-07: $251.26 per share

- 2026-08: $232.62 per share

- 2026-09: $221.61 per share

- 2026-10: $240.63 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $13.77 per share, central $15.28 per share, high $17.29 per share

- FY2017: low $21.03 per share, central $26.74 per share, high $30.70 per share

- FY2018: low $39.21 per share, central $46.42 per share, high $53.49 per share

- FY2019: low $46.28 per share, central $63.33 per share, high $73.26 per share

- FY2020: low $40.70 per share, central $51.97 per share, high $59.88 per share

- FY2021: low $124.47 per share, central $175.99 per share, high $205.99 per share

- FY2022: low $195.09 per share, central $274.48 per share, high $320.71 per share

- FY2023: low $110.37 per share, central $153.19 per share, high $178.13 per share

- FY2024: low $82.88 per share, central $93.97 per share, high $108.73 per share

- FY2025: low $90.40 per share, central $102.49 per share, high $118.58 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:57.817Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022671/000110465926021395/stld-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.