# Sterling Infrastructure (STRL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/STRL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:08.766Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $446.25 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $111.29 per share, central $141.16 per share, high $162.91 per share. Buy at or below the central value $141.16 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:08.766Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.1% at the stated quote. About 5.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Positive operating margins follow a sustained upward trend (at least 90% explained, low residual variation), with no net losses or latest decline; improvement passes the margin-variation check

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.54×

- Sustained margin improvement: Yes

- Variation explained by rising trend: 95.1%

- Variation around the rising trend: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.17×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.18×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 50.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 15.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -7.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 15.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 23.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 43.5%

- FY2018: 63.7%

- FY2019: 8.9%

- FY2020: 16.5%

- FY2021: 15.2%

- FY2022: 21.8%

- FY2023: 58.2%

- FY2024: 82.1%

- FY2025: 65.0%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 75.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $855M

- Net income, five-year total: $855M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 142.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 43.5% vs 65.0%

- Per-share earnings: -0.40 to 8.27 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.9%

- Market cap gain: $9.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $974M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $8.67

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.40

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.27

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.29

- Average buyback yield: 0.9%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $965M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 43.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 65.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.40

- FY2017: $0.43

- FY2018: $0.93

- FY2019: $1.47

- FY2020: $1.50

- FY2021: $2.15

- FY2022: $3.48

- FY2023: $4.44

- FY2024: $8.27

- FY2025: $9.38

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.25×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.52×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -17.8%

- FY2017: -2.5%

- FY2018: -3.0%

- FY2019: -0.1%

- FY2020: -8.2%

- FY2021: -7.6%

- FY2022: -7.7%

- FY2023: -18.8%

- FY2024: -11.8%

- FY2025: -5.7%

## Holders

- [Stephen Mandel](https://gigainvestors.com/LPC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 48% since May 2026 · "Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Stock Fair Value Edges Lower On Margin And Booking Concerns" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +38.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:38.204Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-05: Sterling Reports First Quarter 2025 Results and Increases Full Year Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sterling-reports-first-quarter-2025-200500283.html))

- 2025-08-13: STRL Q2 Deep Dive: Data Center Expansion and Margin Gains Drive Upbeat Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strl-q2-deep-dive-data-031930496.html))

- 2025-09-05: Sterling Raises EPS Guidance: Can Margins Continue to Expand in 2025? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sterling-raises-eps-guidance-margins-131100478.html))

- 2026-02-04: Stock Of The Day Sterling Infrastructure Rides Data Center Boom, Heads For 79% Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/584caf5c-860a-3a37-a6da-0f873c45459c/stock-of-the-day-sterling.html))

- 2026-05-07: Sterling Infrastructure Soars 52% As AI Buildout Fuels Earnings Blowout ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sterling-infrastructure-soars-52-ai-185222069.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +38.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874238/000087423826000024/strl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $958M 

- FY2018: $1.0B 

- FY2019: $1.1B 

- FY2020: $1.2B 

- FY2021: $1.4B 

- FY2022: $1.8B 

- FY2023: $2.0B 

- FY2024: $2.1B 

- FY2025: $2.5B 

- FY2026: $3.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 23.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874238/000087423826000024/strl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: 9.3% 

- FY2018: 10.6% 

- FY2019: 9.6% 

- FY2020: 14.6% 

- FY2021: 14.4% 

- FY2022: 15.5% 

- FY2023: 17.1% 

- FY2024: 20.1% 

- FY2025: 23.0% 

- FY2026: 23.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in engineering & construction; annual sales are USD 2.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874238/000087423826000024/strl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 2490049000; grossProfit 572314000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); STRL.US: Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. engages in the provision of e-infrastructure, transportation, and building solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: E-Infrastructure, Transportation, and Building Solutions. The E-Infrastructure Solutions segment provides site development services for the blue-chip end users in the e-commerce distribution center, data center, manufacturing, warehousing, and power generation sectors. Its Transportation Solutions segment is involved in the development of infrastructure and rehabilitation projects for highways, roads, bridges, airports, ports, rail, and storm drainage systems for the departments of transportation, regional transit, airport, port, water, and railroads authorities. The Building Solutions segment offers residential and commercial concrete foundations for single-family and multi-family homes, parking structures, elevated slabs, and other concrete work for developers and general contractors, as well as plumbing and surveys services for residential builds. It operates in the United States, primarily across the Southern, Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic and Rocky Mountain regions, and the Pacific Islands. The company was formerly known as Sterling Construction Company, Inc. and changed its name to Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. in June 2022. Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.1% to 23% during 2023–25; it earns 50.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 17.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874238/000087423826000024/strl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 23%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.43530692685941325],[2018,0.6368512622331005],[2019,0.08889616261326602],[2020,0.1653944546360205],[2021,0.1518857980108037],[2022,0.21799756625582445],[2023,0.5822958515260934],[2024,0.8207701874864858],[2025,0.6498443604949936],[2026,0.758977909332085]]; median 0.5088013891927533. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns over 100% on new investment; paid dividends in 2 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 9420000; cash acquisitions 54861000; owner earnings 19191000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.858683758011568.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 13171000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 28786000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 15397000; cash acquisitions 396323000; owner earnings 45244000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 8.759680841658563.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2020: growth capex 79000; upkeep 32785000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 42306000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0018673474211695741.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 12450000; upkeep 34201000; cash acquisitions 180911000; owner earnings 62645000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.0866150530768617.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 8843000; upkeep 52066000; cash acquisitions 18004000; owner earnings 106461000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2521768534956463.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 6976000; upkeep 57403000; cash acquisitions 51177000; owner earnings 138655000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4194078828747611.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 12544000; upkeep 68410000; cash acquisitions 11223000; owner earnings 257461000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0923130105142138.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874238/000087423826000024/strl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 198000; upkeep 77114000; cash acquisitions 482333000; owner earnings 290153000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.663022612208042.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Incremental return on capital 1.423513808252874, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,1079000],[2017,0],[2018,1350000],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874238/000087423826000024/strl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 74200000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); STRL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.297 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874238/000087423826000024/strl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); ts may adversely affect our business.

Across our three operating segments, revenue and profit are generated from infrastructure projects and services, but we do not directly control the process by which such infrastructure projects and services are awarded. The construction industry historically has experienced cyclical fluctuations in financial results due to economic recessions, downturns in business cycles of our customers, supply chain disruptions and the price or availability of building materials, inflationary pressures, interest rate fluctuations, international trade issues, including tariffs and counter tariffs, and other economic factors beyond our control. Many factors, including the financial condition of the infrastructure industry, could adversely affect our customers and their willingness to fund capital expenditures in the future. Additionally, consolidation, competition or capital constraints in the industries we serve may result in reduced spending by our customers.

Economic, regulatory and market conditions affecting our specific end markets may adversely impact the demand for our services, resulting in the delay, reduction or cancellation of certain projects and these conditions may continue to adversely affect us in the future.

Our dependence on suppliers of materials and subcontractors could increase our costs and impair our ability to complete contracts on a timely basis or at all.

The price and availability of the materials required to execute our projects are subject to volatility and disruptions caused by global economic factors that are beyond our control, including, but not limited to, labor shortages, wage pressures, rising inflation and potential economic slowdown or recession, as well as fuel and energy costs, the impact of natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts (such as the conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East), and other matters that have impacted or could impact the global economy. If shortages and cost increases in materials and tightness in the labor market persist for a prolonged period of time, and we are unable to offset such cost increases, our profit margins could be adversely impacted.

We rely on third party suppliers to provide substantially all of the materials for our contracts and third party subcontractors to perform some of the work on many of our projects. For the past several years, our operating margins have been adversely impacted, and may continue to be impacted, by price increases for certain construction materials, as well as fuel for our equipment. To the extent that we are unable to obtain commitments from our suppliers for materials or engage subcontractors, our ability to bid for contracts may be impaired.

If we do not accurately estimate the overall risks, requirements or costs related to a project when we bid for a contract that is ultimately awarded to us, we may achie

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 19.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.27517913426249174. Price 446.25; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.6172387096774193 → FY2025 9.375803793582577. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $7.28 per share

- 2016-11: $8.29 per share

- 2016-12: $8.46 per share

- 2017-01: $9.16 per share

- 2017-02: $8.99 per share

- 2017-03: $9.25 per share

- 2017-04: $9.51 per share

- 2017-05: $10.18 per share

- 2017-06: $13.07 per share

- 2017-07: $12.78 per share

- 2017-08: $11.78 per share

- 2017-09: $15.23 per share

- 2017-10: $17.85 per share

- 2017-11: $17.15 per share

- 2017-12: $16.28 per share

- 2018-01: $13.95 per share

- 2018-02: $12.08 per share

- 2018-03: $11.46 per share

- 2018-04: $11.13 per share

- 2018-05: $12.71 per share

- 2018-06: $13.03 per share

- 2018-07: $13.43 per share

- 2018-08: $14.55 per share

- 2018-09: $14.32 per share

- 2018-10: $11.36 per share

- 2018-11: $12.87 per share

- 2018-12: $10.89 per share

- 2019-01: $13.24 per share

- 2019-02: $14.61 per share

- 2019-03: $12.52 per share

- 2019-04: $13.56 per share

- 2019-05: $11.94 per share

- 2019-06: $13.42 per share

- 2019-07: $12.52 per share

- 2019-08: $11.19 per share

- 2019-09: $13.15 per share

- 2019-10: $16.25 per share

- 2019-11: $14.57 per share

- 2019-12: $14.08 per share

- 2020-01: $13.18 per share

- 2020-02: $13.66 per share

- 2020-03: $9.50 per share

- 2020-04: $9.88 per share

- 2020-05: $9.05 per share

- 2020-06: $10.47 per share

- 2020-07: $10.30 per share

- 2020-08: $14.14 per share

- 2020-09: $14.16 per share

- 2020-10: $14.70 per share

- 2020-11: $15.99 per share

- 2020-12: $18.61 per share

- 2021-01: $20.47 per share

- 2021-02: $22.78 per share

- 2021-03: $23.20 per share

- 2021-04: $20.85 per share

- 2021-05: $22.50 per share

- 2021-06: $24.13 per share

- 2021-07: $21.96 per share

- 2021-08: $23.06 per share

- 2021-09: $22.67 per share

- 2021-10: $24.04 per share

- 2021-11: $25.77 per share

- 2021-12: $26.30 per share

- 2022-01: $25.41 per share

- 2022-02: $29.53 per share

- 2022-03: $26.80 per share

- 2022-04: $22.89 per share

- 2022-05: $24.61 per share

- 2022-06: $21.92 per share

- 2022-07: $25.71 per share

- 2022-08: $25.29 per share

- 2022-09: $21.47 per share

- 2022-10: $26.99 per share

- 2022-11: $32.75 per share

- 2022-12: $32.80 per share

- 2023-01: $36.39 per share

- 2023-02: $38.46 per share

- 2023-03: $37.88 per share

- 2023-04: $36.92 per share

- 2023-05: $46.07 per share

- 2023-06: $55.80 per share

- 2023-07: $59.99 per share

- 2023-08: $82.76 per share

- 2023-09: $73.48 per share

- 2023-10: $72.85 per share

- 2023-11: $63.51 per share

- 2023-12: $87.93 per share

- 2024-01: $75.10 per share

- 2024-02: $106.64 per share

- 2024-03: $110.31 per share

- 2024-04: $101.60 per share

- 2024-05: $122.87 per share

- 2024-06: $118.34 per share

- 2024-07: $116.36 per share

- 2024-08: $119.53 per share

- 2024-09: $145.02 per share

- 2024-10: $154.45 per share

- 2024-11: $194.45 per share

- 2024-12: $168.45 per share

- 2025-01: $142.42 per share

- 2025-02: $127.21 per share

- 2025-03: $113.21 per share

- 2025-04: $149.43 per share

- 2025-05: $188.01 per share

- 2025-06: $230.73 per share

- 2025-07: $267.59 per share

- 2025-08: $278.53 per share

- 2025-09: $339.68 per share

- 2025-10: $377.90 per share

- 2025-11: $344.31 per share

- 2025-12: $306.23 per share

- 2026-01: $357.91 per share

- 2026-02: $428.13 per share

- 2026-03: $407.27 per share

- 2026-04: $515.62 per share

- 2026-05: $860.84 per share

- 2026-06: $839.36 per share

- 2026-07: $596.77 per share

- 2026-08: $470.07 per share

- 2026-09: $491.78 per share

- 2026-10: $446.25 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $10.13 per share, central $11.38 per share, high $13.05 per share

- FY2020: low $15.45 per share, central $18.02 per share, high $20.70 per share

- FY2021: low $20.53 per share, central $24.40 per share, high $28.21 per share

- FY2022: low $31.72 per share, central $37.19 per share, high $42.52 per share

- FY2023: low $47.61 per share, central $56.47 per share, high $63.62 per share

- FY2024: low $69.40 per share, central $82.52 per share, high $93.02 per share

- FY2025: low $81.41 per share, central $102.80 per share, high $118.36 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874238/000087423826000024/strl-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.