# Constellation Brands (STZ.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/STZ

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:10.012Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $129.58 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 0.04×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.30×

- FY2019: 0.33×

- FY2020: 0.33×

- FY2021: 0.33×

- FY2022: 0.33×

- FY2023: 0.32×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.35×

- FY2026: 0.31×

- LTM to May 2026: 0.32×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 50.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 51.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 20.6%

- FY2018: 22.6%

- FY2019: 12.3%

- FY2020: 12.8%

- FY2021: 14.0%

- FY2022: 12.9%

- FY2023: 14.6%

- FY2024: 17.6%

- FY2025: 20.7%

- FY2026: 15.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.31×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $990M

- Net income, five-year total: $3.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 14.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -16.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 16.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 14.38×

- FY2023: 3.82×

- FY2024: 0.74×

- FY2025: 8.10×

- FY2026: 0.73×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.6% vs 17.6%

- Per-share earnings: 7.63 to 9.39 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.8%

- Market cap gain: -$4.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $6.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 2.6%

- Per-share value change: $1.76

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $7.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.39

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.50

- Average buyback yield: 2.9%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $12B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 17.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $7.63

- FY2018: $11.82

- FY2019: $17.63

- FY2020: -$0.06

- FY2021: $9.37

- FY2022: -$0.21

- FY2023: -$0.37

- FY2024: $9.39

- FY2025: -$0.45

- FY2026: $9.61

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.58×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.96×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.9%

- FY2018: 1.8%

- FY2019: 4.1%

- FY2020: -9.4%

- FY2021: -3.0%

- FY2022: -10.6%

- FY2023: -11.5%

- FY2024: -4.1%

- FY2025: -14.9%

- FY2026: -4.5%

## Holders

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 52% since Jul 2023 · "Indications of weak consumer beer demand and an unchanged full-year outlook overshadowed stronger sales." (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales -0.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:38.524Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-09-02: Constellation Brands Cuts Outlook on Weak Beer Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6d37c24d-6642-3e24-9621-e0f96711a5b8/constellation-brands-cuts.html))

- 2026-01-08: Constellation Brands Maintains Fiscal 2026 Outlook as Third-Quarter Results Top Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/constellation-brands-maintains-fiscal-2026-112152492.html))

- 2026-04-08: Constellation Beats Expectations But Lowers Outlook as Beer, Wine Sales Slide ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c62c6408-c11a-3499-abce-1a2aeef8c4ad/constellation-beats.html))

- 2026-07-01: Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock Looks Discounted On Earnings But Weak On Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/constellation-brands-stz-stock-looks-162331409.html))

- 2026-09-08: Constellation Brands warns logistics and commodity costs will compress H2 margins ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4640877-constellation-brands-warns-logistics-and-commodity-costs-will-compress-h2-margins?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-10-06: Constellation Brands stock falls as FY27 guidance disappoints ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/constellation-brands-stock-falls-fy27-205343498.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales -0.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000001691826000011/stz-20260228.htm; observed 2026-04-22.

- FY2018: $7.6B 

- FY2019: $8.1B 

- FY2020: $8.3B 

- FY2021: $8.6B 

- FY2022: $8.8B 

- FY2023: $9.5B 

- FY2024: $10.0B 

- FY2025: $10B 

- FY2026: $9.1B 

- FY2027: $9.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 51.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000001691826000011/stz-20260228.htm; observed 2026-04-22.

- FY2017: 48.3% 

- FY2018: 50.4% 

- FY2019: 50.5% 

- FY2020: 51.8% 

- FY2021: 51.9% 

- FY2022: 52.1% 

- FY2023: 50.9% 

- FY2024: 49.3% 

- FY2025: 51.0% 

- FY2026: 51.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages brewers; annual sales are USD 9.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/STZ.US.json#2026-02-28 (filed 2026-04-22); FY2026: revenue 9139000000; grossProfit 4711500000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); STZ.US: Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Sunbrew, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Spiked Aguas Frescas, Modelo Oro, Modelo Noche Especial, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brand names. The company also offers wine under the Sea Smoke, Schrader Cellars, Kim Crawford, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, and The Prisoner Wine Company brand names; and spirits under the Casa Noble, High West, Mi CAMPO, and Nelson's Green Brier brand names. Additionally, it offers a spirit-based, ready-to-drink alcoholic beverage under the SpikedAde brand. It provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 49.3% to 51.6% during 2024–26; it earns 14.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/STZ.US.json#2024-02-29 (filed 2026-04-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 49.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/STZ.US.json#2025-02-28 (filed 2026-04-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 51%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/STZ.US.json#2026-02-28 (filed 2026-04-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 51.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.2058561209638716],[2018,0.22603314650133524],[2019,0.1230967552225026],[2020,0.12841713571348917],[2021,0.13989875935115],[2022,0.1290817338265763],[2023,0.1459361011806411],[2024,0.17574355220094867],[2025,0.20716563047983422],[2026,0.1516525730189004]]; median 0.14879433709977075. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 52% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000001691826000011/stz-20260228.htm (filed 2026-04-22); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.5190456841005399],[2022,0.5214015280328278],[2023,0.5090385978273517]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 924.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/STZ.US.json#2017-02-28 (filed 2026-04-22); FY2017: growth capex 367699763.68228626; upkeep 539700236.3177137; cash acquisitions 1111000000; owner earnings 1289299763.6822863. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.146901446300639.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/STZ.US.json#2018-02-28 (filed 2026-04-22); FY2018: growth capex 127487073.49213755; upkeep 930112926.5078624; cash acquisitions 150100000; owner earnings 1759787073.4921374. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.15773901153921494.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/STZ.US.json#2019-02-28 (filed 2026-04-22); FY2019: growth capex 295938443.4387443; upkeep 590361556.5612557; cash acquisitions 45600000; owner earnings 3292638443.4387445. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1037278915695495.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/STZ.US.json#2021-02-28 (filed 2026-04-22); FY2021: growth capex 175257760.6717137; upkeep 689342239.3282863; cash acquisitions 19900000; owner earnings 1607757760.6717138. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.12138505280184603.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/STZ.US.json#2024-02-29 (filed 2026-04-22); FY2024: growth capex 382620278.22850573; upkeep 886479721.7714943; cash acquisitions 7500000; owner earnings 1270120278.2285056. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3071522318914742.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/STZ.US.json#2026-02-28 (filed 2026-04-22); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 875000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1231700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,315100000],[2018,400100000],[2019,557700000],[2020,569200000],[2021,575000000],[2022,573000000],[2023,587700000],[2024,653800000],[2025,731800000],[2026,715700000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/STZ.US.json#2026-02-28 (filed 2026-04-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 924100000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 12.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); STZ.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 12.678 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Dependence on limited facilities for production of our beer brands; impacts from Brewery Projects" (SEC filing, Apr 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000001691826000011/stz-20260228.htm (filed 2026-04-22); Dependence on limited facilities for production of our beer brands; impacts from Brewery Projects

### What the price says

The price is 2.5 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); Closing price 129.58 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2026 annual sales per share 52.05390503964276; price multiple 2.4893425363825368. FY2026 cash earnings/share 7.015515355873507. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $167.12 per share

- 2016-11: $151.14 per share

- 2016-12: $153.31 per share

- 2017-01: $149.76 per share

- 2017-02: $158.81 per share

- 2017-03: $162.07 per share

- 2017-04: $172.54 per share

- 2017-05: $182.75 per share

- 2017-06: $193.73 per share

- 2017-07: $193.35 per share

- 2017-08: $200.10 per share

- 2017-09: $199.45 per share

- 2017-10: $219.09 per share

- 2017-11: $217.59 per share

- 2017-12: $228.57 per share

- 2018-01: $219.47 per share

- 2018-02: $215.48 per share

- 2018-03: $227.92 per share

- 2018-04: $233.13 per share

- 2018-05: $223.08 per share

- 2018-06: $218.87 per share

- 2018-07: $210.23 per share

- 2018-08: $208.20 per share

- 2018-09: $215.62 per share

- 2018-10: $199.23 per share

- 2018-11: $195.76 per share

- 2018-12: $160.82 per share

- 2019-01: $173.66 per share

- 2019-02: $169.16 per share

- 2019-03: $175.33 per share

- 2019-04: $211.67 per share

- 2019-05: $176.45 per share

- 2019-06: $196.94 per share

- 2019-07: $196.82 per share

- 2019-08: $204.35 per share

- 2019-09: $207.28 per share

- 2019-10: $190.33 per share

- 2019-11: $186.06 per share

- 2019-12: $189.75 per share

- 2020-01: $188.30 per share

- 2020-02: $172.38 per share

- 2020-03: $143.36 per share

- 2020-04: $164.69 per share

- 2020-05: $172.70 per share

- 2020-06: $174.95 per share

- 2020-07: $178.20 per share

- 2020-08: $184.48 per share

- 2020-09: $189.51 per share

- 2020-10: $165.23 per share

- 2020-11: $205.84 per share

- 2020-12: $219.05 per share

- 2021-01: $210.93 per share

- 2021-02: $214.14 per share

- 2021-03: $228.00 per share

- 2021-04: $240.32 per share

- 2021-05: $239.72 per share

- 2021-06: $233.89 per share

- 2021-07: $224.34 per share

- 2021-08: $211.14 per share

- 2021-09: $210.69 per share

- 2021-10: $216.81 per share

- 2021-11: $225.33 per share

- 2021-12: $250.97 per share

- 2022-01: $237.75 per share

- 2022-02: $215.62 per share

- 2022-03: $230.32 per share

- 2022-04: $246.09 per share

- 2022-05: $245.47 per share

- 2022-06: $233.06 per share

- 2022-07: $246.31 per share

- 2022-08: $246.05 per share

- 2022-09: $229.68 per share

- 2022-10: $247.08 per share

- 2022-11: $257.35 per share

- 2022-12: $231.75 per share

- 2023-01: $231.52 per share

- 2023-02: $223.70 per share

- 2023-03: $225.89 per share

- 2023-04: $229.47 per share

- 2023-05: $242.97 per share

- 2023-06: $246.13 per share

- 2023-07: $272.80 per share

- 2023-08: $260.56 per share

- 2023-09: $251.33 per share

- 2023-10: $234.15 per share

- 2023-11: $240.49 per share

- 2023-12: $241.75 per share

- 2024-01: $245.08 per share

- 2024-02: $248.52 per share

- 2024-03: $271.76 per share

- 2024-04: $253.46 per share

- 2024-05: $250.23 per share

- 2024-06: $257.28 per share

- 2024-07: $245.16 per share

- 2024-08: $240.71 per share

- 2024-09: $257.69 per share

- 2024-10: $232.34 per share

- 2024-11: $240.95 per share

- 2024-12: $221.00 per share

- 2025-01: $180.80 per share

- 2025-02: $175.50 per share

- 2025-03: $183.52 per share

- 2025-04: $187.54 per share

- 2025-05: $178.29 per share

- 2025-06: $162.68 per share

- 2025-07: $167.04 per share

- 2025-08: $161.94 per share

- 2025-09: $134.67 per share

- 2025-10: $131.38 per share

- 2025-11: $136.38 per share

- 2025-12: $137.96 per share

- 2026-01: $156.70 per share

- 2026-02: $157.86 per share

- 2026-03: $150.00 per share

- 2026-04: $156.58 per share

- 2026-05: $138.82 per share

- 2026-06: $139.09 per share

- 2026-07: $130.23 per share

- 2026-08: $130.62 per share

- 2026-09: $113.06 per share

- 2026-10: $129.58 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $65.83 per share, central $78.40 per share, high $91.25 per share

- FY2018: low $82.58 per share, central $104.22 per share, high $121.70 per share

- FY2019: low $95.09 per share, central $129.51 per share, high $151.79 per share

- FY2020: low $100.80 per share, central $142.13 per share, high $166.86 per share

- FY2021: low $98.71 per share, central $133.19 per share, high $155.84 per share

- FY2022: low $118.80 per share, central $169.66 per share, high $199.27 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:37:55.087Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000001691826000011/stz-20260228.htm); period 2026-02-28, filed 2026-04-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.