# Suncor Energy (SU.TO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SU.TO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:44.044Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: CAD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CAD 107.38 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CAD 70.56 per share, central CAD 79.79 per share, high CAD 92.09 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 79.79 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:44.044Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.1% at the stated quote. About 8.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.85×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.01×

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: -0.15×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.24×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.18×

- FY2025: 0.16×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 39.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.5%

- FY2017: 6.4%

- FY2018: 7.5%

- FY2019: 9.7%

- FY2020: -5.3%

- FY2021: 9.2%

- FY2022: 20.3%

- FY2023: 12.5%

- FY2024: 12.6%

- FY2025: 10.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CAD 37B

- Net income, five-year total: CAD 33B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.18×

- FY2022: 1.34×

- FY2023: 0.98×

- FY2024: 0.93×

- FY2025: 1.03×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.4% vs 12.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.26 to 4.93 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.7%

- Market cap gain: CAD -148M

- Cumulative retained earnings: CAD 7.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 44.5%

- Per-share value change: CAD 4.67

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CAD 0.26

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CAD 4.93

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.65

- Average buyback yield: 4.2%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CAD 3.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CAD 40B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CAD 0.26

- FY2017: CAD 2.69

- FY2018: CAD 2.05

- FY2019: CAD 1.88

- FY2020: CAD -2.83

- FY2021: CAD 2.83

- FY2022: CAD 6.72

- FY2023: CAD 6.40

- FY2024: CAD 4.79

- FY2025: CAD 4.93

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.16×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.14×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.9%

- FY2017: -5.0%

- FY2018: -8.1%

- FY2019: -8.4%

- FY2020: -8.3%

- FY2021: -9.1%

- FY2022: -7.8%

- FY2023: -4.6%

- FY2024: -11.1%

- FY2025: -7.6%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.8% a year for ten years · sales -3.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.581Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-05: Suncor Energy Reports Lower Second-quarter Profit; Cuts Full-year Capital Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suncor-energy-reports-lower-second-213231752.html))

- 2025-11-05: Suncor hikes dividend as earnings beat expectations despite slumping oil prices ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/suncor-hikes-dividend-earnings-beat-143214362.html))

- 2026-07-14: Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) Is Up 11.2% After Beating Its Three-Year Efficiency Goals Early ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/suncor-energy-tsx-su-11-061209650.html))

- 2026-08-04: Suncor Tops Profit Estimates as High Oil Prices Boost Refining Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/suncor-tops-profit-estimates-high-223156683.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -3.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/311337/000110465926020411/su-20251231x40f.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: CAD 27B 

- FY2017: CAD 32B 

- FY2018: CAD 39B 

- FY2019: CAD 38B 

- FY2020: CAD 25B 

- FY2021: CAD 39B 

- FY2022: CAD 58B 

- FY2023: CAD 49B 

- FY2024: CAD 51B 

- FY2025: CAD 49B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 43.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/311337/000110465926020411/su-20251231x40f.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 28.5% 

- FY2017: 37.7% 

- FY2018: 39.2% 

- FY2019: 38.1% 

- FY2020: 17.4% 

- FY2021: 39.0% 

- FY2022: 42.6% 

- FY2023: 39.8% 

- FY2024: 39.2% 

- FY2025: 43.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are CAD 48.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/311337/000110465926020411/su-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 48908000000; grossProfit 21243000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SU.TO: Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Oil Sands; Exploration and Production; and Refining and Marketing segments. The Oil Sands segment produces bitumen; and markets, supplies, and transports and manages crude oil, power, and byproducts. The Exploration and Production segment is involved in the offshore operations on the east coast of Canada, and onshore assets in Libya and Syria; and marketing and risk management of crude oil. The Refining and Marketing segment refines and supplies crude oil and intermediate feedstock into a range of petroleum and petrochemical products, as well as sells refined petroleum products to retail customers. This segment is also involved in the trading of crude oil and refined products, natural gas, and power. The company was formerly known as Suncor Inc. and changed its name to Suncor Energy Inc. in April 1997. Suncor Energy Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 39.2% to 43.4% during 2023–25; it earns 9.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 39.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 39.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/311337/000110465926020411/su-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 43.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.004915930464519806],[2017,0.06387720443331446],[2018,0.07509463401338885],[2019,0.09686366932559826],[2020,-0.05338058928739527],[2021,0.09240408315452471],[2022,0.20311609851071943],[2023,0.12481866343661777],[2024,0.12567683814279976],[2025,0.10450268976027846]]; median 0.09463387624006148. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CAD 3.1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 950000000; upkeep 5601000000; owner earnings 4458000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21310004486316733.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 5406000000; owner earnings 3625000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 5558000000; owner earnings 4310800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 4555000000; owner earnings 4844000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 5120000000; owner earnings 12140600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 5828000000; owner earnings 8136800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 6483000000; owner earnings 5618200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/311337/000110465926020411/su-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 5856000000; owner earnings 6074600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,1877000000],[2017,2124000000],[2018,2333000000],[2019,2614000000],[2020,1670000000],[2021,1550000000],[2022,2596000000],[2023,2749000000],[2024,2803000000],[2025,2809000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/311337/000110465926020411/su-20251231x40f.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 3129000000 CAD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SU.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.012 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.05527348231982232. Price 107.38; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.8030407740152039 → FY2025 5.057951706910908. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share)

- 2016-10: CAD 40.25 per share

- 2016-11: CAD 42.78 per share

- 2016-12: CAD 43.90 per share

- 2017-01: CAD 40.36 per share

- 2017-02: CAD 41.35 per share

- 2017-03: CAD 40.83 per share

- 2017-04: CAD 42.78 per share

- 2017-05: CAD 42.28 per share

- 2017-06: CAD 37.89 per share

- 2017-07: CAD 40.67 per share

- 2017-08: CAD 39.13 per share

- 2017-09: CAD 43.73 per share

- 2017-10: CAD 43.80 per share

- 2017-11: CAD 44.75 per share

- 2017-12: CAD 46.15 per share

- 2018-01: CAD 44.56 per share

- 2018-02: CAD 42.24 per share

- 2018-03: CAD 44.49 per share

- 2018-04: CAD 49.10 per share

- 2018-05: CAD 51.64 per share

- 2018-06: CAD 53.50 per share

- 2018-07: CAD 54.78 per share

- 2018-08: CAD 53.72 per share

- 2018-09: CAD 49.98 per share

- 2018-10: CAD 44.16 per share

- 2018-11: CAD 42.84 per share

- 2018-12: CAD 38.13 per share

- 2019-01: CAD 42.38 per share

- 2019-02: CAD 45.36 per share

- 2019-03: CAD 43.31 per share

- 2019-04: CAD 44.18 per share

- 2019-05: CAD 41.65 per share

- 2019-06: CAD 40.85 per share

- 2019-07: CAD 37.87 per share

- 2019-08: CAD 38.94 per share

- 2019-09: CAD 41.79 per share

- 2019-10: CAD 39.16 per share

- 2019-11: CAD 41.43 per share

- 2019-12: CAD 42.56 per share

- 2020-01: CAD 40.45 per share

- 2020-02: CAD 36.99 per share

- 2020-03: CAD 22.46 per share

- 2020-04: CAD 24.82 per share

- 2020-05: CAD 23.67 per share

- 2020-06: CAD 22.89 per share

- 2020-07: CAD 21.07 per share

- 2020-08: CAD 20.93 per share

- 2020-09: CAD 16.26 per share

- 2020-10: CAD 15.03 per share

- 2020-11: CAD 20.77 per share

- 2020-12: CAD 21.35 per share

- 2021-01: CAD 21.39 per share

- 2021-02: CAD 25.27 per share

- 2021-03: CAD 26.27 per share

- 2021-04: CAD 26.29 per share

- 2021-05: CAD 28.06 per share

- 2021-06: CAD 29.69 per share

- 2021-07: CAD 24.56 per share

- 2021-08: CAD 23.56 per share

- 2021-09: CAD 26.26 per share

- 2021-10: CAD 32.55 per share

- 2021-11: CAD 31.12 per share

- 2021-12: CAD 31.65 per share

- 2022-01: CAD 36.32 per share

- 2022-02: CAD 38.76 per share

- 2022-03: CAD 40.70 per share

- 2022-04: CAD 46.18 per share

- 2022-05: CAD 50.89 per share

- 2022-06: CAD 45.16 per share

- 2022-07: CAD 43.46 per share

- 2022-08: CAD 42.49 per share

- 2022-09: CAD 38.90 per share

- 2022-10: CAD 46.86 per share

- 2022-11: CAD 44.23 per share

- 2022-12: CAD 42.95 per share

- 2023-01: CAD 46.18 per share

- 2023-02: CAD 45.86 per share

- 2023-03: CAD 41.96 per share

- 2023-04: CAD 42.42 per share

- 2023-05: CAD 38.03 per share

- 2023-06: CAD 38.86 per share

- 2023-07: CAD 41.26 per share

- 2023-08: CAD 45.77 per share

- 2023-09: CAD 46.71 per share

- 2023-10: CAD 44.91 per share

- 2023-11: CAD 44.74 per share

- 2023-12: CAD 42.45 per share

- 2024-01: CAD 44.52 per share

- 2024-02: CAD 46.63 per share

- 2024-03: CAD 49.99 per share

- 2024-04: CAD 52.53 per share

- 2024-05: CAD 55.60 per share

- 2024-06: CAD 52.15 per share

- 2024-07: CAD 55.14 per share

- 2024-08: CAD 54.66 per share

- 2024-09: CAD 49.92 per share

- 2024-10: CAD 52.56 per share

- 2024-11: CAD 55.71 per share

- 2024-12: CAD 51.31 per share

- 2025-01: CAD 54.53 per share

- 2025-02: CAD 55.36 per share

- 2025-03: CAD 55.72 per share

- 2025-04: CAD 48.69 per share

- 2025-05: CAD 48.79 per share

- 2025-06: CAD 51.01 per share

- 2025-07: CAD 54.65 per share

- 2025-08: CAD 56.77 per share

- 2025-09: CAD 58.24 per share

- 2025-10: CAD 55.85 per share

- 2025-11: CAD 62.84 per share

- 2025-12: CAD 60.92 per share

- 2026-01: CAD 71.97 per share

- 2026-02: CAD 77.05 per share

- 2026-03: CAD 92.01 per share

- 2026-04: CAD 93.08 per share

- 2026-05: CAD 86.17 per share

- 2026-06: CAD 76.30 per share

- 2026-07: CAD 94.14 per share

- 2026-08: CAD 92.73 per share

- 2026-09: CAD 96.50 per share

- 2026-10: CAD 106.82 per share

## Annual estimated value (CAD per share)

- FY2016: low CAD 11.57 per share, central CAD 12.96 per share, high CAD 14.81 per share

- FY2017: low CAD 13.36 per share, central CAD 15.03 per share, high CAD 17.26 per share

- FY2018: low CAD 16.01 per share, central CAD 18.09 per share, high CAD 20.86 per share

- FY2019: low CAD 32.65 per share, central CAD 46.31 per share, high CAD 54.27 per share

- FY2020: low CAD 17.54 per share, central CAD 19.83 per share, high CAD 22.88 per share

- FY2021: low CAD 34.07 per share, central CAD 38.64 per share, high CAD 44.71 per share

- FY2022: low CAD 53.70 per share, central CAD 61.02 per share, high CAD 70.77 per share

- FY2023: low CAD 51.83 per share, central CAD 58.89 per share, high CAD 68.30 per share

- FY2024: low CAD 56.57 per share, central CAD 64.10 per share, high CAD 74.12 per share

- FY2025: low CAD 57.51 per share, central CAD 65.13 per share, high CAD 75.28 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:29.844Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/311337/000110465926020411/su-20251231x40f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.