# Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SUPN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:10.964Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $39.57 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $28.68 per share, central $31.80 per share, high $35.94 per share. Buy at or below the central value $31.80 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:10.964Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.3% at the stated quote. About 8.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.78×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.25×

- FY2017: 0.33×

- FY2018: 0.35×

- FY2019: 0.38×

- FY2020: 0.33×

- FY2021: 0.15×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: -0.01×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: -0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -0.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 89.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 88.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 34.2%

- FY2017: 54.8%

- FY2018: 28.8%

- FY2019: 18.2%

- FY2020: 19.8%

- FY2021: 8.0%

- FY2022: 6.1%

- FY2023: -0.6%

- FY2024: 12.3%

- FY2025: -4.4%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 3.45×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $521M

- Net income, five-year total: $151M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 34.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.57×

- FY2022: 2.40×

- FY2023: 65.06×

- FY2024: 2.08×

- FY2025: -1.34×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 34.2% vs -0.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.07 to 0.02 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Market cap gain: $1.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $602M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -37.9%

- Per-share value change: -$1.05

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.07

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.02

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $663M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $650M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 34.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -0.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.76

- FY2017: $1.07

- FY2018: $2.05

- FY2019: $2.10

- FY2020: $2.36

- FY2021: $0.98

- FY2022: $0.98

- FY2023: $0.02

- FY2024: $1.32

- FY2025: -$0.68

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -5.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.22×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 69.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.65×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.9%

- FY2017: -13.5%

- FY2018: -1.8%

- FY2019: -2.6%

- FY2020: -0.8%

- FY2021: -4.4%

- FY2022: -3.3%

- FY2023: -8.6%

- FY2024: -7.2%

- FY2025: -5.9%

## Holders

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 28% since Oct 2025 · "Supernus CVR Milestone Triggers Cash Outflow And Undervalued Stock Debate" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales +8.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:38.754Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-06: Supernus Pharmaceuticals’s (NASDAQ:SUPN) Q1 Sales Beat Estimates But Full-Year Sales Guidance Misses Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supernus-pharmaceuticals-nasdaq-supn-q1-220758134.html))

- 2025-08-05: Supernus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SUPN) Beats Expectations in Strong Q2, Guides for Strong Full-Year Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supernus-pharmaceuticals-nasdaq-supn-beats-221803866.html))

- 2025-11-05: SUPN Q3 Deep Dive: Growth Drivers Offset By Supply Constraints and Integration Costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supn-q3-deep-dive-growth-133743565.html))

- 2026-02-25: Supernus FY25 Total Revenues Up 9%; Guides 17-21% Growth For FY26 ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/supernus-fy25-total-revenues-9-guides-17-21-growth-fy26))

- 2026-05-24: Supernus CVR Milestone Triggers Cash Outflow And Undervalued Stock Debate ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/supernus-cvr-milestone-triggers-cash-121150354.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +8.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1356576/000135657626000011/supn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2016: $215M 

- FY2017: $302M 

- FY2018: $409M 

- FY2019: $393M 

- FY2020: $520M 

- FY2021: $580M 

- FY2022: $667M 

- FY2023: $608M 

- FY2024: $662M 

- FY2025: $719M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 89.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1356576/000135657626000011/supn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2016: 94.4% 

- FY2017: 95.0% 

- FY2018: 96.2% 

- FY2019: 95.8% 

- FY2020: 89.9% 

- FY2021: 87.1% 

- FY2022: 86.9% 

- FY2023: 86.2% 

- FY2024: 88.2% 

- FY2025: 89.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in drug manufacturers specialty & generic; annual sales are USD 719 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1356576/000135657626000011/supn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: revenue 718952000; grossProfit 644390000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); SUPN.US: Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases in the United States. It offers Qelbree, a non-stimulant indicated for the treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); GOCOVRI for the treatment of dyskinesia and levodopa/carbidopa in patients with Parkinson's Disease (PD); Oxtellar XR, an extended-release oxcarbazepine product indicated for the monotherapy treatment of partial onset epilepsy seizures; and APOKYN for the acute and intermittent treatment of hypomobility or off episodes in patients with advanced PD. It also provides Trokendi XR, an extended release topiramate product indicated for the treatment of epilepsy, as well as for the prophylaxis of migraine headache; XADAGO for the treatment of levodopa/carbidopa in patients with PD experiencing off episodes; and MYOBLOC, a Type B toxin product indicated for the treatment of cervical dystonia and chronic sialorrhea. In addition, the company develops ONAPGO, which received FDA approval, for the treatment of motor fluctuations in adults with advanced PD; SPN-817, a first-in-class selective acetylcholinesterase inhibitor, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial, for the treatment of epilepsy, partial seizures, Dravet syndrome, and Lennox-Gaustaut syndrome; SPN-820, a small molecule in Phase 2 clinical trial for treating resistant depression; and SPN-443, a stimulant in Phase 1 trial for the treatment of ADHD/CNS. It markets and sells its products through pharmaceutical wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors. It has a development agreement with Navitor Inc. for the conduct of Phase 2 clinical program of SPN-820. Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Rockville, Maryland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 86.2% to 89.6% during 2023–25; it earns 15.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 86.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 88.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1356576/000135657626000011/supn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 89.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.3416558486570964],[2017,0.5484957020057306],[2018,0.2878873254545369],[2019,0.18169871731382825],[2020,0.19848740400643888],[2021,0.07994139853247272],[2022,0.06125327053475052],[2023,-0.005793538019115284],[2024,0.12342562666052831],[2025,-0.04352243704222889]]; median 0.15256217198717828. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 87% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1356576/000135657626000011/supn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.8705342589797767],[2022,0.8692805265887135],[2023,0.8620969480890373]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1603000; owner earnings 92017000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2029000; owner earnings 63387000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 844000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 117212000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 2736000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 116979000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 3449000; cash acquisitions 298541000; owner earnings 141642000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.1077152257098883.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2045000; cash acquisitions 950000; owner earnings 83974000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.01131302546026151.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 412000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 145842000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 551000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 85624000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 725000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 153554000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1356576/000135657626000011/supn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1338000; cash acquisitions 293093000; owner earnings 51675000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 5.671852926947267.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); SUPN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.322 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04724967028152932. Price 39.57; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.2739619995003946 → FY2025 0.915393447529559. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $19.80 per share

- 2016-11: $21.55 per share

- 2016-12: $25.25 per share

- 2017-01: $27.05 per share

- 2017-02: $25.70 per share

- 2017-03: $31.30 per share

- 2017-04: $32.60 per share

- 2017-05: $37.60 per share

- 2017-06: $43.10 per share

- 2017-07: $40.45 per share

- 2017-08: $45.80 per share

- 2017-09: $40.00 per share

- 2017-10: $41.60 per share

- 2017-11: $37.80 per share

- 2017-12: $39.85 per share

- 2018-01: $39.05 per share

- 2018-02: $38.90 per share

- 2018-03: $45.80 per share

- 2018-04: $46.90 per share

- 2018-05: $56.35 per share

- 2018-06: $59.85 per share

- 2018-07: $52.95 per share

- 2018-08: $44.30 per share

- 2018-09: $50.35 per share

- 2018-10: $47.56 per share

- 2018-11: $47.42 per share

- 2018-12: $33.22 per share

- 2019-01: $38.13 per share

- 2019-02: $40.84 per share

- 2019-03: $35.04 per share

- 2019-04: $36.73 per share

- 2019-05: $30.03 per share

- 2019-06: $33.09 per share

- 2019-07: $33.37 per share

- 2019-08: $27.03 per share

- 2019-09: $27.48 per share

- 2019-10: $27.79 per share

- 2019-11: $23.38 per share

- 2019-12: $23.72 per share

- 2020-01: $22.87 per share

- 2020-02: $17.99 per share

- 2020-03: $17.99 per share

- 2020-04: $23.40 per share

- 2020-05: $24.12 per share

- 2020-06: $23.75 per share

- 2020-07: $22.27 per share

- 2020-08: $21.99 per share

- 2020-09: $20.84 per share

- 2020-10: $18.36 per share

- 2020-11: $21.30 per share

- 2020-12: $25.16 per share

- 2021-01: $29.39 per share

- 2021-02: $26.87 per share

- 2021-03: $26.18 per share

- 2021-04: $30.45 per share

- 2021-05: $29.85 per share

- 2021-06: $30.79 per share

- 2021-07: $26.33 per share

- 2021-08: $27.53 per share

- 2021-09: $26.67 per share

- 2021-10: $29.85 per share

- 2021-11: $29.97 per share

- 2021-12: $29.16 per share

- 2022-01: $30.85 per share

- 2022-02: $31.95 per share

- 2022-03: $32.32 per share

- 2022-04: $27.90 per share

- 2022-05: $27.87 per share

- 2022-06: $28.92 per share

- 2022-07: $31.75 per share

- 2022-08: $34.23 per share

- 2022-09: $33.85 per share

- 2022-10: $34.27 per share

- 2022-11: $36.72 per share

- 2022-12: $35.67 per share

- 2023-01: $41.01 per share

- 2023-02: $37.59 per share

- 2023-03: $36.23 per share

- 2023-04: $36.86 per share

- 2023-05: $33.14 per share

- 2023-06: $30.06 per share

- 2023-07: $30.69 per share

- 2023-08: $31.84 per share

- 2023-09: $27.57 per share

- 2023-10: $23.85 per share

- 2023-11: $27.25 per share

- 2023-12: $28.94 per share

- 2024-01: $27.68 per share

- 2024-02: $29.70 per share

- 2024-03: $34.11 per share

- 2024-04: $30.10 per share

- 2024-05: $27.12 per share

- 2024-06: $26.75 per share

- 2024-07: $29.82 per share

- 2024-08: $35.16 per share

- 2024-09: $31.18 per share

- 2024-10: $34.07 per share

- 2024-11: $36.57 per share

- 2024-12: $36.16 per share

- 2025-01: $38.37 per share

- 2025-02: $32.06 per share

- 2025-03: $32.75 per share

- 2025-04: $32.48 per share

- 2025-05: $31.70 per share

- 2025-06: $31.52 per share

- 2025-07: $35.10 per share

- 2025-08: $45.12 per share

- 2025-09: $47.79 per share

- 2025-10: $55.13 per share

- 2025-11: $45.59 per share

- 2025-12: $49.70 per share

- 2026-01: $48.16 per share

- 2026-02: $54.73 per share

- 2026-03: $51.69 per share

- 2026-04: $48.00 per share

- 2026-05: $46.18 per share

- 2026-06: $46.51 per share

- 2026-07: $44.63 per share

- 2026-08: $44.21 per share

- 2026-09: $43.04 per share

- 2026-10: $39.57 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $6.07 per share, central $6.68 per share, high $7.49 per share

- FY2017: low $15.28 per share, central $20.75 per share, high $23.93 per share

- FY2018: low $27.98 per share, central $37.22 per share, high $42.59 per share

- FY2019: low $34.74 per share, central $46.93 per share, high $54.03 per share

- FY2020: low $45.45 per share, central $61.64 per share, high $71.06 per share

- FY2021: low $37.77 per share, central $42.14 per share, high $47.97 per share

- FY2022: low $47.29 per share, central $64.45 per share, high $74.43 per share

- FY2023: low $30.52 per share, central $34.13 per share, high $38.93 per share

- FY2024: low $36.13 per share, central $40.02 per share, high $45.21 per share

- FY2025: low $25.38 per share, central $28.16 per share, high $31.86 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1356576/000135657626000011/supn-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.