# Severn Trent (SVT.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SVT.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:27.303Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 3,216.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 786.68 per share, central GBX 903.32 per share, high GBX 1,012.27 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 903.32 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:27.303Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.5% at the stated quote. About 4.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.31×

- FY2018: 0.31×

- FY2019: 0.31×

- FY2020: 0.32×

- FY2021: 0.29×

- FY2022: 0.29×

- FY2023: 0.27×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.25×

- FY2026: 0.34×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 60.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 60.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 39.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 8.1%

- FY2018: 6.5%

- FY2019: 6.5%

- FY2020: 5.1%

- FY2021: 5.6%

- FY2022: 4.6%

- FY2023: 5.5%

- FY2024: 3.6%

- FY2025: 4.2%

- FY2026: 5.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 23M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 786M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 3.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.27×

- FY2023: 0.83×

- FY2024: 0.83×

- FY2025: -2.02×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.5% vs 4.2%

- Per-share earnings: 1.39 to 0.76 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP 3.7B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP -488M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -7.3%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.63

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 1.39

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.76

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 373M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 2.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 1.45

- FY2018: GBP 1.07

- FY2019: GBP 1.32

- FY2020: GBP 0.66

- FY2021: GBP 0.86

- FY2022: GBP -0.35

- FY2023: GBP 0.52

- FY2024: GBP 0.47

- FY2025: GBP 0.76

- FY2026: GBP 1.23

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.49×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.20×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.4%

- FY2018: -5.4%

- FY2019: -5.3%

- FY2020: -6.8%

- FY2021: -6.0%

- FY2022: -8.4%

- FY2023: -5.0%

- FY2024: -4.7%

- FY2025: -4.3%

- FY2026: -3.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 21.8% a year for ten years · sales +16.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:04.948Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 21.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +16.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31/reports/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-07-21.

- FY2017: GBP 1.6B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.8B 

- FY2020: GBP 1.8B 

- FY2021: GBP 1.8B 

- FY2022: GBP 1.9B 

- FY2023: GBP 2.2B 

- FY2024: GBP 2.3B 

- FY2025: GBP 2.4B 

- FY2026: GBP 2.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 60.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31/reports/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-07-21.

- FY2017: 77.2% 

- FY2018: 33.3% 

- FY2019: 33.5% 

- FY2020: 62.5% 

- FY2021: 60.2% 

- FY2022: 60.3% 

- FY2023: 58.6% 

- FY2024: 22.9% 

- FY2025: 92.0% 

- FY2026: 60.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities regulated water; annual sales are GBP 2.8 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31/reports/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-07-21); FY2026: revenue 2831000000; grossProfit 1712000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SVT.LSE: Severn Trent PLC provides water and wastewater services in the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Regulated Water and Wastewater, and Infrastructure Services. It offers water and wastewater services. The company also generates renewable energy through solar, wind, hydro, and crop digestion, as well as through anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge and food waste. In addition, it engages in property development and the management of the sale of surplus land. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Coventry, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 22.9% to 92% during 2024–26; it earns 5.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 22.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 92%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31/reports/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-07-21); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 60.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.08073157386049151],[2018,0.06464839302512387],[2019,0.06466445382693162],[2020,0.05050419276085341],[2021,0.05575020572454571],[2022,0.04640353355075627],[2023,0.05547265383511444],[2024,0.03644111069642992],[2025,0.0415971788859357],[2026,0.056631683406314214]]; median 0.05561142977983008. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 60% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31/reports/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-07-21); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.6024518388791593],[2022,0.6027376112797818],[2023,0.5863008637014456]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 3.6% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 519200000; owner earnings 147300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2018: growth capex 278559637.63972217; upkeep 329940362.36027783; owner earnings 252459637.63972217. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1033828624805624.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2019: growth capex 407884042.72049814; upkeep 374215957.27950186; owner earnings 264544042.72049814. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.5418379432246172.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2023: growth capex 322400000; upkeep 417300000; owner earnings 110020000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.9303762952190513.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2024: growth capex 741400000; upkeep 428300000; owner earnings 116200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 6.380378657487091.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31/reports/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-07-21); FY2026: growth capex 1398000000; upkeep 498000000; owner earnings 371000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.7681940700808627.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); Incremental return on capital 0.03551587298675112, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); Dividend observations: [[2017,190400000],[2018,197000000],[2019,211900000],[2020,228400000],[2021,240200000],[2022,254500000],[2023,261300000],[2024,301400000],[2025,356000000],[2026,371000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SVT.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.22399999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 21.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 3.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3050541765374467. Price 3216; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.9041789784719291 → FY2026 1.227968556061233. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 2,328.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 2,187.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 2,222.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 2,270.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 2,338.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 2,382.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 2,325.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 2,500.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 2,182.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 2,240.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 2,269.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 2,173.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 2,111.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 2,099.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 2,162.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,953.50 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,707.50 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 1,844.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,940.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,989.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 1,979.50 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,934.50 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 2,001.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 1,849.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 1,863.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 1,830.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 1,815.50 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 1,998.50 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 2,019.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 1,976.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 2,036.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 1,990.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 2,048.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 2,015.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 2,071.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 2,165.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 2,255.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 2,243.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 2,515.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 2,579.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 2,465.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 2,280.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 2,390.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 2,441.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 2,479.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 2,450.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 2,332.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 2,439.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 2,430.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 2,389.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 2,289.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 2,312.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 2,190.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 2,306.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 2,477.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 2,453.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,501.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 2,800.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 2,762.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 2,604.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 2,738.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 2,886.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 2,947.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 2,873.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 2,876.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 3,078.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 3,146.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 2,915.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 2,719.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 2,950.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 2,787.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 2,355.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 2,503.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 2,712.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 2,651.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 2,816.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 2,751.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 2,879.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 2,932.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 2,773.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 2,566.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 2,554.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 2,400.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 2,365.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 2,656.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 2,601.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 2,579.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 2,598.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 2,500.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 2,470.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 2,467.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 2,386.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 2,380.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 2,571.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 2,571.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 2,642.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 2,568.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 2,697.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 2,508.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 2,527.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 2,503.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 2,531.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 2,790.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 2,703.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 2,734.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 2,649.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 2,586.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 2,588.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 2,781.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 2,818.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 2,789.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 2,928.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 3,280.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 3,090.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 3,269.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 2,970.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 2,956.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 3,018.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 3,146.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 3,096.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 3,134.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 929.26 per share, central GBX 1,056.70 per share, high GBX 1,226.34 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 965.82 per share, central GBX 1,097.99 per share, high GBX 1,273.94 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 1,022.35 per share, central GBX 1,187.10 per share, high GBX 1,379.79 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 1,033.81 per share, central GBX 1,175.67 per share, high GBX 1,364.53 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 736.57 per share, central GBX 837.03 per share, high GBX 970.76 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 786.55 per share, central GBX 903.17 per share, high GBX 1,012.10 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:12.271Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31/reports/213800RPBXRETY4A4C59-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-07-21.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Severn Trent

SVT · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 3,216.00
Buy up to: GBX 903.32
Expected / yr: 4.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 13.1% around their average (limit 35%), and 1 loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 29.7%
Worst year: 20.2%
Latest · 2026: 33.6%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 5.6% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 4.2% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 5.6%
Worst year: 3.6%
Latest · 2026: 5.7%

Each $1 of profit left $0.03 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80), and new investment earned 3.6% (minimum 12%).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.03×
Annual median: 0.83×
Latest · 2026: 1.00×

Per-share value fell from 1.39 to 0.76, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive), and share growth was 2.5% over ten years and 4.2% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.81
Worst year: GBP -0.35
Latest · 2026: GBP 1.23

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -3.1% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -5.3%
Worst year: -3.1%
Latest · 2026: -3.1%

Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 28.7%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.03 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 2328.00; 2016-11 · Price GBX 2187.00; 2016-12 · Price GBX 2222.00; 2017-01 · Price GBX 2270.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2017-02 · Price GBX 2338.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2017-03 · Price GBX 2382.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2017-04 · Price GBX 2325.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2017-05 · Price GBX 2500.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2017-06 · Price GBX 2182.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2017-07 · Price GBX 2240.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2017-08 · Price GBX 2269.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2017-09 · Price GBX 2173.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2017-10 · Price GBX 2111.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2017-11 · Price GBX 2099.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2017-12 · Price GBX 2162.00 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2018-01 · Price GBX 1953.50 · Value 1056.70 · Buy at or below 1056.70; 2018-02 · Price GBX 1707.50 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2018-03 · Price GBX 1844.00 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2018-04 · Price GBX 1940.00 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2018-05 · Price GBX 1989.00 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2018-06 · Price GBX 1979.50 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2018-07 · Price GBX 1934.50 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2018-08 · Price GBX 2001.00 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2018-09 · Price GBX 1849.00 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2018-10 · Price GBX 1863.00 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2018-11 · Price GBX 1830.00 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2018-12 · Price GBX 1815.50 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2019-01 · Price GBX 1998.50 · Value 1097.99 · Buy at or below 1097.99; 2019-02 · Price GBX 2019.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2019-03 · Price GBX 1976.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2019-04 · Price GBX 2036.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2019-05 · Price GBX 1990.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2019-06 · Price GBX 2048.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2019-07 · Price GBX 2015.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2019-08 · Price GBX 2071.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2019-09 · Price GBX 2165.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2019-10 · Price GBX 2255.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2019-11 · Price GBX 2243.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2019-12 · Price GBX 2515.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2020-01 · Price GBX 2579.00 · Value 1187.10 · Buy at or below 1187.10; 2020-02 · Price GBX 2465.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2020-03 · Price GBX 2280.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2020-04 · Price GBX 2390.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2020-05 · Price GBX 2441.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2020-06 · Price GBX 2479.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2020-07 · Price GBX 2450.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2020-08 · Price GBX 2332.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2020-09 · Price GBX 2439.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2020-10 · Price GBX 2430.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2020-11 · Price GBX 2389.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2020-12 · Price GBX 2289.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2021-01 · Price GBX 2312.00 · Value 1175.67 · Buy at or below 1175.67; 2021-02 · Price GBX 2190.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2021-03 · Price GBX 2306.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2021-04 · Price GBX 2477.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2021-05 · Price GBX 2453.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2021-06 · Price GBX 2501.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2021-07 · Price GBX 2800.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2021-08 · Price GBX 2762.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2021-09 · Price GBX 2604.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2021-10 · Price GBX 2738.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2021-11 · Price GBX 2886.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2021-12 · Price GBX 2947.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2022-01 · Price GBX 2873.00 · Value 837.03 · Buy at or below 837.03; 2022-02 · Price GBX 2876.00; 2022-03 · Price GBX 3078.00; 2022-04 · Price GBX 3146.00; 2022-05 · Price GBX 2915.00; 2022-06 · Price GBX 2719.00; 2022-07 · Price GBX 2950.00; 2022-08 · Price GBX 2787.00; 2022-09 · Price GBX 2355.00; 2022-10 · Price GBX 2503.00; 2022-11 · Price GBX 2712.00; 2022-12 · Price GBX 2651.00; 2023-01 · Price GBX 2816.00; 2023-02 · Price GBX 2751.00; 2023-03 · Price GBX 2879.00; 2023-04 · Price GBX 2932.00; 2023-05 · Price GBX 2773.00; 2023-06 · Price GBX 2566.00; 2023-07 · Price GBX 2554.00; 2023-08 · Price GBX 2400.00; 2023-09 · Price GBX 2365.00; 2023-10 · Price GBX 2656.00; 2023-11 · Price GBX 2601.00; 2023-12 · Price GBX 2579.00; 2024-01 · Price GBX 2598.00; 2024-02 · Price GBX 2500.00; 2024-03 · Price GBX 2470.00; 2024-04 · Price GBX 2467.00; 2024-05 · Price GBX 2386.00; 2024-06 · Price GBX 2380.00; 2024-07 · Price GBX 2571.00; 2024-08 · Price GBX 2571.00; 2024-09 · Price GBX 2642.00; 2024-10 · Price GBX 2568.00; 2024-11 · Price GBX 2697.00; 2024-12 · Price GBX 2508.00; 2025-01 · Price GBX 2527.00; 2025-02 · Price GBX 2503.00; 2025-03 · Price GBX 2531.00; 2025-04 · Price GBX 2790.00; 2025-05 · Price GBX 2703.00; 2025-06 · Price GBX 2734.00; 2025-07 · Price GBX 2649.00; 2025-08 · Price GBX 2586.00; 2025-09 · Price GBX 2588.00; 2025-10 · Price GBX 2781.00; 2025-11 · Price GBX 2818.00; 2025-12 · Price GBX 2789.00; 2026-01 · Price GBX 2928.00 · Value 903.17 · Buy at or below 903.17; 2026-02 · Price GBX 3280.00 · Value 903.17 · Buy at or below 903.17; 2026-03 · Price GBX 3090.00 · Value 903.17 · Buy at or below 903.17; 2026-04 · Price GBX 3269.00 · Value 903.17 · Buy at or below 903.17; 2026-05 · Price GBX 2970.00 · Value 903.17 · Buy at or below 903.17; 2026-06 · Price GBX 2956.00 · Value 903.17 · Buy at or below 903.17; 2026-07 · Price GBX 3018.00 · Value 903.17 · Buy at or below 903.17; 2026-08 · Price GBX 3146.00 · Value 903.17 · Buy at or below 903.17; 2026-09 · Price GBX 3096.00 · Value 903.17 · Buy at or below 903.17; 2026-10 · Price GBX 3134.00 · Value 903.17 · Buy at or below 903.17; 2026-10 · Price GBX 3216.00 · Value 903.17 · Buy at or below 903.17

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 786.68 – GBX 1,012.27
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 903.32
Discount to value	1 − 3216.00 / 903.32 = -256.0%
Return / year	About 4.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 46.57/share; 2.3% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 244.77/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 2.8B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 371M

Owner earnings

Operating margin33.6%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -10B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares302M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·