# Smurfit WestRock (SW.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:11.395Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $41.24 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $24.15 per share, central $31.05 per share, high $36.27 per share. Buy at or below the central value $31.05 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:11.395Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.3% at the stated quote. About 8.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 7.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 7.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 27.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 20.2%

- FY2017: 19.2%

- FY2018: 25.6%

- FY2019: 15.5%

- FY2020: 17.1%

- FY2021: 17.2%

- FY2022: 19.6%

- FY2023: 14.0%

- FY2024: 2.7%

- FY2025: 5.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 19.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 16.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.46×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.51×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.2% vs 5.8%

- Per-share earnings: 1.76 to 1.33 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 8.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 16.6%

- Market cap gain: $15B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 8.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 16.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -3.5%

- Per-share value change: -$0.43

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.76

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.33

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.67

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.98

- FY2017: $1.76

- FY2018: -$2.74

- FY2019: $1.99

- FY2020: $2.23

- FY2021: $2.69

- FY2022: $3.70

- FY2023: $2.87

- FY2024: $0.79

- FY2025: $1.33

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.80×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.85×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.45×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.3%

- FY2017: -4.4%

- FY2018: -16.8%

- FY2019: -8.3%

- FY2020: -9.6%

- FY2021: -4.0%

- FY2022: -3.8%

- FY2023: -5.8%

- FY2024: -2.7%

- FY2025: -5.1%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 25% since Nov 2024 · "Higher input costs, particularly freight, pressured profitability." (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales -2.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:38.874Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-30: Smurfit Westrock shares slip as Q2 earnings miss overshadows revenue beat ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/smurfit-westrock-shares-slip-as-q2-earnings-miss-overshadows-revenue-beat-93CH-4159354))

- 2025-10-30: SW Misses Q3 Earnings Estimates, Lowers FY25 EBITDA View ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sw-misses-q3-earnings-estimates-175500291.html))

- 2026-02-15: Smurfit Westrock Quebec Closures Reshape Footprint And Valuation Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/smurfit-westrock-quebec-closures-reshape-160748187.html))

- 2026-04-30: Smurfit Westrock slips on Q1 earnings miss despite revenue beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/smurfit-westrock-slips-q1-earnings-140641681.html))

- 2026-05-08: Packaging Costs Surge As Smurfit Westrock Sees $290 Million Energy Hit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/packaging-costs-surge-smurfit-westrock-182254252.html))

- 2026-07-29: SW Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Freight Costs, Sales Beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sw-q2-earnings-miss-estimates-135500500.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -2.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2005951/000162828026012555/smur-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: $8.6B 

- FY2018: $8.9B 

- FY2019: $9.0B 

- FY2020: $8.5B 

- FY2021: $10B 

- FY2022: $13B 

- FY2023: $11B 

- FY2024: $20B 

- FY2025: $31B 

- FY2026: $30B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 19.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2005951/000162828026012555/smur-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 30.3% 

- FY2017: 28.9% 

- FY2018: 33.1% 

- FY2019: 33.2% 

- FY2020: 33.7% 

- FY2021: 22.4% 

- FY2022: 24.2% 

- FY2023: 25.3% 

- FY2024: 19.9% 

- FY2025: 19.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaging & containers; annual sales are USD 31.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 31179000000; grossProfit 6043000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SW.US: Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.4% to 25.3% during 2023–25; it earns 17.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 25.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.20183108158550958],[2017,0.1921051507412374],[2018,0.25554561047633306],[2019,0.15531781350725102],[2020,0.1709717998981277],[2021,0.17249750053025456],[2022,0.19587847767415612],[2023,0.13995914839775794],[2024,0.027143101426239366],[2025,0.057527672844046515]]; median 0.17173465021419113. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 0.6% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 45223171; upkeep 417525556; owner earnings 466955534. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09684684666356262.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 549463732; owner earnings 254536268. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 45236981.229472876; upkeep 662711758.7705271; owner earnings 254288241.22947288. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17789647295822247.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 632195217; owner earnings 369804783. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 215352262; upkeep 486744400; owner earnings 704637200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.30562147726517985.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 403280400; upkeep 526719600; cash acquisitions 93000000; owner earnings 965652600. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5139326503133735.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 929000000; cash acquisitions 29000000; owner earnings 343649000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08438843121906364.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 52800800; upkeep 1413199200; cash acquisitions 719000000; owner earnings 307930700. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.5064106956532752.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SW.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2192000000; cash acquisitions 6000000; owner earnings 1057000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.005676442762535478.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,174582474],[2017,229143172],[2018,243651338],[2019,266600949],[2020,319787464],[2021,356958238],[2022,349000000],[2023,391000000],[2024,650000000],[2025,900000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SW.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.511 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our debt could adversely affect our financial health and operating flexibility." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2005951/000162828026012555/smur-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Our debt could adversely affect our financial health and operating flexibility.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.09455423553638945. Price 41.24; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.3186720062364832 → FY2025 2.0095057034220534. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $21.70 per share

- 2016-12: $22.77 per share

- 2017-01: $26.18 per share

- 2017-02: $26.76 per share

- 2017-03: $26.49 per share

- 2017-04: $26.73 per share

- 2017-05: $27.95 per share

- 2017-06: $29.92 per share

- 2017-07: $30.03 per share

- 2017-08: $29.66 per share

- 2017-09: $32.80 per share

- 2017-10: $29.90 per share

- 2017-11: $31.54 per share

- 2017-12: $33.15 per share

- 2018-01: $35.19 per share

- 2018-02: $34.74 per share

- 2018-03: $40.98 per share

- 2018-04: $42.52 per share

- 2018-05: $41.05 per share

- 2018-06: $40.55 per share

- 2018-07: $41.38 per share

- 2018-08: $42.64 per share

- 2018-09: $40.88 per share

- 2018-10: $31.92 per share

- 2018-11: $27.64 per share

- 2018-12: $26.33 per share

- 2019-01: $28.58 per share

- 2019-02: $29.56 per share

- 2019-03: $27.86 per share

- 2019-04: $30.51 per share

- 2019-05: $27.39 per share

- 2019-06: $30.25 per share

- 2019-07: $32.83 per share

- 2019-08: $29.55 per share

- 2019-09: $29.88 per share

- 2019-10: $33.16 per share

- 2019-11: $35.82 per share

- 2019-12: $38.15 per share

- 2020-01: $37.00 per share

- 2020-02: $32.45 per share

- 2020-03: $27.13 per share

- 2020-04: $29.22 per share

- 2020-05: $32.84 per share

- 2020-06: $34.15 per share

- 2020-07: $33.22 per share

- 2020-08: $36.42 per share

- 2020-09: $39.18 per share

- 2020-10: $38.54 per share

- 2020-11: $44.05 per share

- 2020-12: $47.05 per share

- 2021-01: $49.01 per share

- 2021-02: $48.14 per share

- 2021-03: $45.85 per share

- 2021-04: $49.11 per share

- 2021-05: $55.62 per share

- 2021-06: $53.54 per share

- 2021-07: $53.98 per share

- 2021-08: $56.78 per share

- 2021-09: $51.11 per share

- 2021-10: $51.73 per share

- 2021-11: $52.62 per share

- 2021-12: $53.75 per share

- 2022-01: $54.18 per share

- 2022-02: $51.91 per share

- 2022-03: $43.83 per share

- 2022-04: $41.88 per share

- 2022-05: $39.90 per share

- 2022-06: $33.22 per share

- 2022-07: $37.00 per share

- 2022-08: $32.31 per share

- 2022-09: $29.79 per share

- 2022-10: $31.97 per share

- 2022-11: $36.65 per share

- 2022-12: $37.33 per share

- 2023-01: $41.00 per share

- 2023-02: $38.27 per share

- 2023-03: $35.93 per share

- 2023-04: $35.45 per share

- 2023-05: $36.98 per share

- 2023-06: $32.56 per share

- 2023-07: $40.57 per share

- 2023-08: $40.75 per share

- 2023-09: $32.94 per share

- 2023-10: $31.85 per share

- 2023-11: $34.74 per share

- 2023-12: $40.81 per share

- 2024-01: $40.28 per share

- 2024-02: $41.00 per share

- 2024-03: $44.85 per share

- 2024-04: $42.81 per share

- 2024-05: $50.04 per share

- 2024-06: $46.10 per share

- 2024-07: $44.84 per share

- 2024-08: $47.42 per share

- 2024-09: $49.42 per share

- 2024-10: $51.50 per share

- 2024-11: $55.02 per share

- 2024-12: $53.86 per share

- 2025-01: $53.09 per share

- 2025-02: $52.07 per share

- 2025-03: $45.06 per share

- 2025-04: $42.02 per share

- 2025-05: $43.33 per share

- 2025-06: $43.15 per share

- 2025-07: $44.38 per share

- 2025-08: $47.36 per share

- 2025-09: $42.57 per share

- 2025-10: $36.92 per share

- 2025-11: $35.69 per share

- 2025-12: $38.67 per share

- 2026-01: $41.63 per share

- 2026-02: $47.01 per share

- 2026-03: $39.85 per share

- 2026-04: $38.39 per share

- 2026-05: $41.15 per share

- 2026-06: $46.26 per share

- 2026-07: $45.97 per share

- 2026-08: $46.90 per share

- 2026-09: $44.10 per share

- 2026-10: $41.24 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $15.61 per share, central $17.59 per share, high $20.24 per share

- FY2017: low $13.70 per share, central $15.32 per share, high $17.48 per share

- FY2018: low $13.53 per share, central $15.23 per share, high $17.49 per share

- FY2019: low $12.34 per share, central $14.03 per share, high $16.29 per share

- FY2020: low $14.30 per share, central $15.87 per share, high $17.95 per share

- FY2021: low $15.48 per share, central $17.28 per share, high $19.67 per share

- FY2022: low $25.82 per share, central $30.20 per share, high $34.81 per share

- FY2023: low $22.97 per share, central $25.72 per share, high $29.38 per share

- FY2024: low $26.89 per share, central $31.57 per share, high $36.55 per share

- FY2025: low $25.51 per share, central $32.60 per share, high $37.97 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:37:56.442Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2005951/000162828026012555/smur-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.