# Stanley Black & Decker (SWK.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SWK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:12.226Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $92.75 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $38.91 per share, central $44.01 per share, high $50.80 per share. Buy at or below the central value $44.01 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:12.226Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.32×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.15×

- FY2017: 0.14×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 28.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 29.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 55.7%

- FY2017: 55.4%

- FY2018: 43.7%

- FY2019: 48.0%

- FY2020: 36.6%

- FY2021: 20.9%

- FY2022: 10.9%

- FY2023: 9.1%

- FY2024: 19.0%

- FY2025: 14.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.37×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -22.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.03×

- FY2022: 0.69×

- FY2023: -0.02×

- FY2024: 1.82×

- FY2025: 1.26×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 55.4% vs 14.8%

- Per-share earnings: 6.51 to 1.89 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquisition spending exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.3%

- Market cap gain: -$6.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -14.3%

- Per-share value change: -$4.62

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $6.51

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.89

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.03

- Average buyback yield: 3.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $7.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 55.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $6.51

- FY2017: $8.05

- FY2018: $3.86

- FY2019: $6.12

- FY2020: $7.60

- FY2021: $10.24

- FY2022: -$0.85

- FY2023: -$1.88

- FY2024: $1.89

- FY2025: $2.65

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -2.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.81×

- Restructuring years, last five: 3

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.42×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.15×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.3%

- FY2017: -1.0%

- FY2018: -3.4%

- FY2019: -2.7%

- FY2020: -3.3%

- FY2021: 3.6%

- FY2022: 5.3%

- FY2023: -6.2%

- FY2024: -3.8%

- FY2025: -2.7%

## Holders

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 51% since Dec 2021 · sales -1.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:39.010Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-13: SWK Q1 Earnings Call: Pricing and Supply Chain Mitigation Address Tariff Headwinds ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/swk-q1-earnings-call-pricing-134543265.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93556/000009355626000009/swk-20260103.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: $11B 

- FY2017: $13B 

- FY2018: $14B 

- FY2019: $13B 

- FY2020: $15B 

- FY2021: $15B 

- FY2022: $17B 

- FY2023: $16B 

- FY2024: $15B 

- FY2025: $15B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 29.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93556/000009355626000009/swk-20260103.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 37.6% 

- FY2017: 37.3% 

- FY2018: 35.0% 

- FY2019: 33.1% 

- FY2020: 34.2% 

- FY2021: 33.2% 

- FY2022: 24.2% 

- FY2023: 26.0% 

- FY2024: 29.9% 

- FY2025: 29.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in tools & accessories; annual sales are USD 15.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 15130400000; grossProfit 4517800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SWK.US: Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. provides hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and related accessories in the United States, Canada, Other Americas, Europe, and Asia. Its Tools & Outdoor segment offers professional grade corded and cordless electric power tools and equipment, including drills, impact wrenches and drivers, grinders, saws, routers, concrete prep and placement tools, and sanders; pneumatic tools and fasteners; corded and cordless electric power tools; household power tools, hand-held vacuums, and small appliances; leveling and layout tools, planes, hammers, demolition tools, clamps, vises, knives, saws, chisels, and industrial and automotive tools; drill, screwdriver, router bits, abrasives, saw blades, and threading products; tool boxes, sawhorses, medical cabinets, and engineered storage solutions; and electric and gas-powered lawn and garden products. This segment sells its products under the DEWALT, CRAFTSMAN, CUB CADET, STANLEY, BLACK+DECKER, and HUSTLER brands through retailers, third-party distributors, independent dealers, and a direct sales force. Its Industrial segment provides threaded fasteners, blind rivets and tools, blind inserts and tools, drawn arc weld studs and systems, engineered plastic and mechanical fasteners, self-piercing riveting systems, precision nut running systems, micro fasteners, high-strength structural fasteners, axel swage, latches, heat shields, pins, couplings, fitting, and other engineered products. This segment sells its products through direct sales force and third-party distributors to the automotive, manufacturing, electronics, construction, aerospace, and other industries. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. has a strategic partnership with I4F Licensing Nv. The company was formerly known as The Stanley Works and changed its name to Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. in March 2010. The company was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in New Britain, Connecticut.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 26% to 29.9% during 2023–25; it earns 28.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 26%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 29.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 29.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.5568161358379768],[2017,0.5536645025453618],[2018,0.43656025083731204],[2019,0.47972175934285144],[2020,0.36567157106573855],[2021,0.2088767229425284],[2022,0.10896969552409688],[2023,0.09070318619400157],[2024,0.18961327208619552],[2025,0.1481625058773301]]; median 0.28727414700413345. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 14.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 347000000; cash acquisitions 59300000; owner earnings 1026300000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.057780376108350386.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 442400000; cash acquisitions 2583500000; owner earnings 1245600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.074100834938985.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 492100000; cash acquisitions 524600000; owner earnings 619600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.8466752743705617.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 424700000; cash acquisitions 685400000; owner earnings 1093000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6270814272644099.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 348100000; cash acquisitions 1324400000; owner earnings 1463800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.9047684109851073.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 519100000; cash acquisitions 2043800000; owner earnings 1748500000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.16888761795825.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 338700000; cash acquisitions 5700000; owner earnings 4700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.2127659574468086.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 353900000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 521900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 283300000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 507299999. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,330900000],[2017,362900000],[2018,384900000],[2019,402000000],[2020,450600000],[2021,493700000],[2022,471600000],[2023,482600000],[2024,491200000],[2025,500600000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SWK.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 14700000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SWK.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.318 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"The Company’s business is subject to risks associated with the global trade environment" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93556/000009355626000009/swk-20260103.htm (filed 2026-02-24); The Company’s business is subject to risks associated with the global trade environment

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.6% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 6.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13924728918719131. Price 92.75; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 6.458816287506712 → FY2025 3.3401809281133543. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $113.84 per share

- 2016-11: $118.63 per share

- 2016-12: $114.69 per share

- 2017-01: $124.00 per share

- 2017-02: $127.15 per share

- 2017-03: $132.87 per share

- 2017-04: $136.15 per share

- 2017-05: $137.64 per share

- 2017-06: $140.73 per share

- 2017-07: $140.69 per share

- 2017-08: $144.00 per share

- 2017-09: $150.97 per share

- 2017-10: $161.55 per share

- 2017-11: $169.63 per share

- 2017-12: $169.69 per share

- 2018-01: $166.23 per share

- 2018-02: $159.19 per share

- 2018-03: $153.20 per share

- 2018-04: $141.59 per share

- 2018-05: $139.24 per share

- 2018-06: $132.81 per share

- 2018-07: $149.47 per share

- 2018-08: $140.53 per share

- 2018-09: $146.44 per share

- 2018-10: $116.52 per share

- 2018-11: $130.85 per share

- 2018-12: $119.74 per share

- 2019-01: $126.44 per share

- 2019-02: $132.43 per share

- 2019-03: $136.17 per share

- 2019-04: $146.60 per share

- 2019-05: $127.22 per share

- 2019-06: $144.61 per share

- 2019-07: $147.59 per share

- 2019-08: $132.86 per share

- 2019-09: $144.41 per share

- 2019-10: $151.33 per share

- 2019-11: $157.74 per share

- 2019-12: $165.74 per share

- 2020-01: $159.33 per share

- 2020-02: $143.70 per share

- 2020-03: $100.00 per share

- 2020-04: $110.20 per share

- 2020-05: $125.45 per share

- 2020-06: $139.38 per share

- 2020-07: $153.32 per share

- 2020-08: $161.30 per share

- 2020-09: $162.20 per share

- 2020-10: $166.20 per share

- 2020-11: $184.31 per share

- 2020-12: $178.56 per share

- 2021-01: $173.49 per share

- 2021-02: $174.84 per share

- 2021-03: $199.67 per share

- 2021-04: $206.77 per share

- 2021-05: $216.80 per share

- 2021-06: $204.99 per share

- 2021-07: $197.05 per share

- 2021-08: $193.27 per share

- 2021-09: $175.31 per share

- 2021-10: $179.73 per share

- 2021-11: $174.76 per share

- 2021-12: $188.62 per share

- 2022-01: $174.65 per share

- 2022-02: $162.70 per share

- 2022-03: $139.79 per share

- 2022-04: $120.15 per share

- 2022-05: $118.69 per share

- 2022-06: $104.86 per share

- 2022-07: $97.33 per share

- 2022-08: $88.10 per share

- 2022-09: $75.21 per share

- 2022-10: $78.49 per share

- 2022-11: $81.72 per share

- 2022-12: $75.12 per share

- 2023-01: $89.31 per share

- 2023-02: $85.61 per share

- 2023-03: $80.58 per share

- 2023-04: $86.34 per share

- 2023-05: $74.97 per share

- 2023-06: $93.71 per share

- 2023-07: $99.27 per share

- 2023-08: $94.38 per share

- 2023-09: $83.58 per share

- 2023-10: $85.05 per share

- 2023-11: $90.90 per share

- 2023-12: $98.10 per share

- 2024-01: $93.30 per share

- 2024-02: $89.29 per share

- 2024-03: $97.93 per share

- 2024-04: $91.40 per share

- 2024-05: $87.17 per share

- 2024-06: $79.89 per share

- 2024-07: $105.62 per share

- 2024-08: $102.36 per share

- 2024-09: $110.13 per share

- 2024-10: $92.94 per share

- 2024-11: $89.45 per share

- 2024-12: $80.29 per share

- 2025-01: $88.07 per share

- 2025-02: $86.53 per share

- 2025-03: $76.88 per share

- 2025-04: $60.02 per share

- 2025-05: $65.43 per share

- 2025-06: $67.75 per share

- 2025-07: $67.65 per share

- 2025-08: $74.29 per share

- 2025-09: $74.33 per share

- 2025-10: $67.72 per share

- 2025-11: $71.52 per share

- 2025-12: $74.28 per share

- 2026-01: $78.66 per share

- 2026-02: $86.49 per share

- 2026-03: $71.06 per share

- 2026-04: $78.16 per share

- 2026-05: $79.42 per share

- 2026-06: $94.12 per share

- 2026-07: $94.58 per share

- 2026-08: $96.37 per share

- 2026-09: $88.59 per share

- 2026-10: $92.75 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $74.33 per share, central $83.74 per share, high $96.27 per share

- FY2017: low $84.56 per share, central $95.87 per share, high $110.94 per share

- FY2018: low $86.26 per share, central $98.13 per share, high $113.93 per share

- FY2019: low $79.93 per share, central $90.92 per share, high $105.54 per share

- FY2020: low $116.17 per share, central $163.07 per share, high $190.38 per share

- FY2021: low $101.91 per share, central $121.86 per share, high $141.89 per share

- FY2022: low $100.52 per share, central $114.32 per share, high $132.71 per share

- FY2023: low $98.39 per share, central $111.83 per share, high $129.73 per share

- FY2024: low $37.70 per share, central $42.90 per share, high $49.82 per share

- FY2025: low $36.51 per share, central $41.54 per share, high $48.24 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:37:57.255Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93556/000009355626000009/swk-20260103.htm); period 2026-01-03, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.